After Lifting Of Capital Controls - Where Will Baht Go?

[danone]

our dear old, erratic, self-adoring finance minister finally bites the bullet and blames all the others.

the central bank immediately announced the lifting of the last remaining capital controls.

where will the baht go from here?

will there be renewed pressure on the baht?

i guess: yes.

why shouldnt there be?

[topfield]

our dear old, erratic, self-adoring finance minister finally bites the bullet and blames all the others.

the central bank immediately announced the lifting of the last remaining capital controls.

where will the baht go from here?

will there be renewed pressure on the baht?

i guess: yes.

why shouldnt there be?

68 viewers of the topic.....not one reply.

Clearly readers of this posting are not fortune tellers....and nor am I !!!

[gummy]

I am not sure that is correct to say that the central bank is lifting all control measures insofar as the 30% witholding will still remain. At least 'till next week. But I stand to be corrected by the financial gurus

Edited March 2, 2007 by gummy

[cclub75]

68 viewers of the topic.....not one reply.

Clearly readers of this posting are not fortune tellers....and nor am I !!!

It reflects the general feeling : total, global and huge uncertainty.

In Thailand

-We don't have a government anymore : with the resignation of Finance Minister, the whole scene appears like what it was : a pathetic theater with some old shadows, without lines to play.

I mean less then 6 month in office, and the confusion is total

-for that matter, we don't know what will happen to : reform of FBA 2 (my guess : toilet for the project, even the Democrat Party asks for that), to capital controls (Miss Tarisa, boss of BOT, next on the list of "resignations" ?), to the Retail Act etc.

-To sum' up : total uncertainty regarding the factors able to influence the foreign business community sentiment about Thailand

World

-Markets under pressure ("correction" or the begining of a plunge ?)

-USD under a lot of pressure

-US economy going down : bad news from real estate, sub prime loans etc, growth was revised for the 4th quarter etc.

So, I would say :

-because USD is doomed THB should mecanically go up.

-But because Thailand is now a total mess and that there are no reasons to believe that Surayud GVT 2 will do a better job than version 1.... well that's a negative factor for THB.

[backflip]

"...THB should mecanically go up...a negative factor for THB."

That's my guess too: either up or down.