Could Thailand's populists win again despite army obstacles?

[snoop1130]

Could Thailand's populists win again despite army obstacles?

By Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat

 

A volunteer waits for a voter at a polling station in Bangkok, Thailand, March 17, 2019. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Nearly five years after Thailand's 2014 military coup, the populist movement that the army has overthrown twice in a decade is contesting an election on Sunday that its leaders say is rigged against it.

 

Yet, the Pheu Thai party linked to ousted ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, is hoping it can beat the system, just as the former telecommunication tycoon's loyalists have won every general election since 2001.

 

This time, Pheu Thai has shifted strategy by dividing its forces to capture new votes and to seek a "democratic front" with other parties to overcome junta-written electoral rules that give a huge advantage to the party seeking to retain junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha as prime minister.

 

Sunday's election has 81 parties competing, but the race has shaped up as one between Pheu Thai and "democracy front" allies versus the pro-army Palang Pracharat party that nominated Prayuth as prime minister.

 

Polls indicate that Pheu Thai will again be the top vote-winner, and it hopes with its allies to make up the largest bloc in the 500-seat House of Representatives.

 

But that may not matter, because the new constitution written by the junta allows parliament's upper house, the 250-seat Senate, to vote with the lower house to choose the prime minister - and the Senate is entirely appointment by the junta.

 

That means pro-junta parties need to win only 126 lower house seats on Sunday to choose the next government, while Pheu Thai and allies, who can't count on any support in the Senate, need 376 - three-quarters of the total up for grabs.

 

Despite the disadvantages, Sudarat Keyuraphan, Pheu Thai's main prime ministerial candidate, said a democratic front could keep the military from controlling the next government.

 

"I still believe in the heart of the people and we have seen election upsets in many places around the world," Sudarat told Reuters in an interview.

 

"Now, they have created a new structure that enables them to hold on to power in a semi-democratic structure," she said of the military. "So we have to tell people about this and to put an end to this once and for all.”

 

'GET RID OF THAKSIN'

 

However, the complex rules governing the election make it all but impossible for pro-Thaksin parties to form a government on their own as they have in previous elections.

 

Since he burst onto the political scene in 2001, Thaksin has dominated Thai politics, inspiring devotion among his mostly rural supporters for his pro-poor policies and revulsion from mostly middle-class and establishment opponents who decry him as a corrupt demagogue.

 

The rivalry has brought intermittent violent protests over almost 15 years. Twice, the military has stepped in, the first time in 2006 to oust Thaksin after he won a second term and again in 2014 to topple a government that had been led by his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.

 

Thaksin now lives in self-imposed exile to escape a 2008 corruption sentence. He is officially banned from politics but has been hosting a weekly podcast since January discussing global affairs and politics.

 

His son, Panthongtae Shinawatra, 38, has made cameo appearances at Pheu Thai rallies, bringing loud cheers in party strongholds in the north and northeast.

 

Worry that a pro-Thaksin party might yet again win the election was one reason why the post-coup constitution made changes giving the junta a strong say in who will be prime minister, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the faculty of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.

 

"The establishment have had a strong determination to get rid of Thaksin once and for all," Titipol told Reuters.

 

PRO-DEMOCRACY FRONT

 

While the rewritten electoral rules give junta leader Prayuth's party an advantage in choosing the next government, they are by no means a guarantee.

 

In recent weeks, talk of a "democracy front" has gained ground, with speculation different parties in the House of Representatives might muster the 376 votes needed to choose the prime minister.

 

That strategy took a hit when Thai Raksa Chart, a key pro-Thaksin ally of Pheu Thai, was disqualified from the election this month.

 

The constitutional court ruled that the party had broken the electoral law by nominating the sister of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, as its prime ministerial candidate, crossing the traditional boundary between monarchy and politics.

 

Still, Pheu Thai has other allies - including Pheu Chart party and Pheu Tham - while politicians from the dissolved Thai Raksa Chart campaign for the democratic front.

 

Other parties like the youth-oriented Future Forward Party, while not seen as "pro-Thaksin", could join forces to keep the military out of politics.

 

The leader of another main party, the Democrats, has also said he won't support keeping junta leader Prayuth as prime minister, though it is unclear if the staunchly anti-Thaksin Democrats would join any front with Thaksin loyalists.

 

Even if they unite, it's unclear whether anti-junta parties can muster enough votes, but Pheu Thai's Sudarat said Prayuth's declaration as a prime ministerial candidate has had a galvanizing effect.

 

    "For 10 years the military has been acting as a referee," she said.

 

"But now they have reveal themselves and have become a player so this could lead to a new end game ... now it is up to the people."

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-03-20

[BestB]

This election is not the end but the new beginning . Thai raksa was not a mistake or s fluke , rumours of coup almost always turn out to be true. 

 

One learns from history, it’s not the matter of if, but the matter of when.

 

next few months will be very interesting, army is most certainly disliked by majority despite army propaganda of how good they are.

[DrTuner]

A pyrrhic victory at best as a coup will be imminent if the military wakes up on the wrong side of the bed.

[nong38]

 I fear that the military want to remain in charge one way or another, the election may not give the result they want. They came to power in 2014 stating that they were averting a possible civil war with the then Govt being barracked by Suthep and his followers and the possibility of Govt supporters turning up to support the the legal govt. That premise may have had some substance but it was never allowed to materialize, this time if there is military interference then things could be different. Its time for people to think of the country and not of themselves and who is in power ( yes I know its very difficult not to put number 1 first ).

The result is one thing but that might not be the end of things.

[harada]

One thing is for sure which ever way the election goes you can bet that whoever is pulling the strings will be safe and sound far away from Thailand lest the <deleted> hits the fan.

[YetAnother]

9 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

But that may not matter, because the new constitution written by the junta

respected new agencies, not muzzled inside thailand, have already branded the election and it's results as 'fake' and 'rigged'

[Prairieboy]

9 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

81 parties competing

There must be a lot of hunger out there.  Pigs lining up at the trough!

 

[Prairieboy]

9 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Other parties like the youth-oriented Future Forward Party, while not seen as "pro-Thaksin", could join forces to keep the military out of politics.

An estimable goal but virtually impossible - if things aren't going the way the army would like, they will just stage another coup.

[yellowboat]

10 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

semi-democratic structure

Sorry it is or it isn't.  There is no semi.  Sugar coating garbage is a waste of breath.

 

If the junta loses after all this rigging,  the army will be marginalized.  With the rigging, general cha cha will not be looked on favorably by the fairly elected in other countries.   This will be either a huge win for Thailand in beating the odds of a rigged election, or the continued doldrums of the last five years. 

[crazykopite]

Next week will be no different than that from a month ago the rich getting richer the poor getting poorer ☹️

[Jonnapat]

1 hour ago, crazykopite said:

Next week will be no different than that from a month ago the rich getting richer the poor getting poorer ☹️

Just like most other areas of the world

[Dinobot]

And for the next episode of Thai Democracy Theatre....

[malibukid]

14 hours ago, DrTuner said:

A pyrrhic victory at best as a coup will be imminent if the military wakes up on the wrong side of the bed.

and there goes the Baht.

[Chrisswe]

Stay calm, the Junta/military has allready bought what needed to win this election !!!!

[ozmeldo]

If the powers that be don't like the result they can just declare the vote null. Just like Brexit.

 

Even if the populists get in, never a worry just have another coup. After how many military coups is it safe to say that democracy doesn't exist in a nation? Certainly once a decade.

[yellowboat]

2 hours ago, ozmeldo said:

If the powers that be don't like the result they can just declare the vote null. Just like Brexit.

 

Even if the populists get in, never a worry just have another coup. After how many military coups is it safe to say that democracy doesn't exist in a nation? Certainly once a decade.

Maybe the tank treads will wear out.  How many times can you coup ?  I can only each so much chocolate ice cream or pizza.  The coup machine has to give out one day. 

 

In Malaysia, a company I worked for had this Chinese Thai kid.  He was 110% yellow.  He said the ultimate crutch one night during dinner: "You have to be Thai to understand Thai Politics ".  Everyone died laughing.  He was stunned by the response.  I turned to him and said: "Its corrupt".   Never said another word to him.  He quit soon after.  Other Thais at the company did not like him.