800k might not be enough

[jackdd]

This is still speculation, we don't have a really reliable source, so you don't have to panic yet

 

I was going through this news article, regarding several planned immigration changes by Big Joke: https://www.tnamcot.com/view/Ch_Yw8h

This sentence caught my attention:

การเข้าประเทศจะต้องมีวงเงินในบัญชีที่สูงขึ้นกว่าเดิมที่กำหนดไว้ 8 แสนบาท

My own translation, feel free to correct me if i'm wrong:

The required finances to enter Thailand will be raised to more than the previously required 800k baht (after this they also write about 6 months seasoning)

 

The "enter Thailand" part does of course not make much sense, probably the reporter got it wrong and it was related to the retirement extension, to stay in Thailand (and not entering)

This is supposed to be effective from 22nd April.

 

What do you think might the new required minimum amount be? 1 million? 1.6 million?

[Inn Between]

If true, I guess that means the immigration people are forecasting that inflation in Thailand will be so extreme in the near future that 800k a year or 65K per month won't be enough for a retiree to survive properly. I can't see any other justification for it. 

[NCC1701A]

11 minutes ago, jackdd said:

What do you think might the new required minimum amount be? 1 million? 1.6 million?

a few weeks ago i suggested the amount of money would doubled to 1.6k. but everyone was quick to point out that the existing extensions would be grandfathered in.  like they were the last time it was increased.  

Edited March 26, 2019 by NCC1701A

[from the home of CC]

just my opinion but I think the days of 'grandfathering' are long past..

[INV]

I think and guess more than 800k means just that, 800k or more, the rest I can't read more than with Google and GFs help and more then or 6 months is mention yes, Hope someone that know good Thai can translate as this seems to be one more nail

Edited March 26, 2019 by INV

[puchooay]

The words "investment" and "investors" is used in the same paragraph as the one quoted above. It seems that this new rule, if implemented, refers to those entering Thailand to do business.

 

[onera1961]

51 minutes ago, Inn Between said:

If true, I guess that means the immigration people are forecasting that inflation in Thailand will be so extreme in the near future that 800k a year or 65K per month won't be enough for a retiree to survive properly. I can't see any other justification for it. 

Thailand's core inflation is forecasted to be around 2% by 2020. The 800K rule was set up 15 years ago when the big mac index was around 60. Now the big mac index is double of the that. All foreign owned restaurants chains are now rivaling market prices of mid-size US cities. Even the cheap Japanese and Korean chains are costing approximately 1000-1200 BHT for two person (no alcohol). That is $30-$40 for a dinner for two persons. I can do the same in Apple Bees (no alcohol) in mid-size US cites. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by onera1961

[NE1]

Well the 6 months of 800k is already here is it not ? 3 months prior to extension and 3 months after it .

[INV]

13 minutes ago, NE1 said:

Well the 6 months of 800k is already here is it not ? 3 months prior to extension and 3 months after it .

It's 60 days before and 90 days after

[onera1961]

2 minutes ago, INV said:

It's 60 days before and 90 days after

Only on a piece of paper. Most offices are still ticking to the 3-month before rule. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by onera1961

[Inn Between]

13 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

Thailand's core inflation is forecasted to be around 2% by 2020. The 800K rule was set up 15 years ago when the big mac index was around 60. Now the big mac index is double of the that. All foreign owned restaurants are now rivaling market prices of mid-size US cities. Even the cheap Japanese and Korean chains are costing approximately 1000-1200 BHT for two person (no alcohol). That is $30-$40 for a dinner for two persons. I can do the same in Apple Bees (no alcohol) in mid-size US cites. 

It certainly depends to a large degree on how one chooses to live. I moved there in 2000 and lived in the Pattaya area for about 17 years. Foreign food and restaurants have always been a rip off. I could get a Thai breakfast of fried pork and basil with rice and kai dao for half the cost of a couple of scrambled eggs with toast and coffee, and although it probably cost the same or less to make than the Thai breakfast, the price will be double because it's "Western food". 

 

For someone like me who cooks the vast majority of my own food, has a DIY nature, and doesn't go bars more than once a month or so (to do anything more than people watch with friends and have a couple of beers), 65K could go very far. I don't need anything to be big and fancy. 

[onera1961]

16 minutes ago, Inn Between said:

For someone like me who cooks the vast majority of my own food, has a DIY nature, and doesn't go bars more than once a month or so (to do anything more than people watch with friends and have a couple of beers),

One can cook in the USA also. An American breakfast cost 120BHT in a restaurant and can go up to 160BHT. I can do the same in the USA also in many places. I was just giving a comparison. It may be little cheaper but not that much.  I keep my food budget to 500BHT when I'm in Thailand (6-month) and $20 when I am in Benidorm. I have lived with a food budget of $25-$30 in London also. American breakfast in Bangkok's sukumvit soi 5 foodland cafe is still 60 BHT. They sell 100s of those and with thin margin they can still make a profit, I guess.

Edited March 26, 2019 by onera1961

[Inn Between]

5 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

One can cook in the USA also. An American breakfast cost 120BHT in restaurant and can go up to 160BHT. I can do the same in the USA also in many places. I was just giving a comparison. It may be little cheaper but not that much.  I keep my food budget to 500BHT when I'm in Thailand (6-month) and $20 when I am in Benidorm. I have lived with a food budget of $25-$30 in London also. 

From my 17 years experience of living there, I'd say that staying out of bars and restaurants in the Pattaya area can save a lot of money. But I guess that's just my opinion. Surely you know what's best for you, 

 

Have a nice one. 

[onera1961]

29 minutes ago, Inn Between said:

Thai breakfast of fried pork and basil with rice and kai dao

Sorry, I cant eat rice in breakfast. Rice in dinner is OK for me. But once in a week if you splurge, the dollar cost average will keep the budget down. 15 years ago when I came here every thing seemed so cheap (I was not doing dollar conversion), now I do dollar conversion for a better comparison. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by onera1961

[moontang]

46 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

Thailand's core inflation is forecasted to be around 2% by 2020. The 800K rule was set up 15 years ago when the big mac index was around 60. Now the big mac index is double of the that. All foreign owned restaurants chains are now rivaling market prices of mid-size US cities. Even the cheap Japanese and Korean chains are costing approximately 1000-1200 BHT for two person (no alcohol). That is $30-$40 for a dinner for two persons. I can do the same in Apple Bees (no alcohol) in mid-size US cites. 

kind of funny you said that...I was at my new loca mall, yesterday..Gateway..great place to get out of the heat and enjoy an ice cream cone.  Walked by the information desk, and there was some kind of lunch promo going on at about a dozen restaurants in the mall.  I picked up a flyer, and all of the restaurants were the Japanese and Korean chains like you mentioned..look like they are trying to turn Bang Po into Singapore...we know they are doing that in other parts of the Mango.  Interest in these places was luke warm at best, and I see a lot of failures...so yes, might as well go get some reconstituted ribs at Applebee.  However, you can walk across the street and get chicken rice for 35 THB, or go around he corner and get the best duck soup on the planet for 40 THB, and I can get a bus home for 9 THB.  Up to you.  

[onera1961]

10 minutes ago, moontang said:

Interest in these places was luke warm at best, and I see a lot of failures...

Every time I go to Sabushi or Sakushi in Pattaya Central, it is packed. last time we had to wait for our seats. If they cant get customers, they will go out of business. Some of the chains I visited in various Bangkok malls 15 years ago are still in business.

Edited March 26, 2019 by onera1961

[gentlemanjackdarby]

1 hour ago, Inn Between said:

If true, I guess that means the immigration people are forecasting that inflation in Thailand will be so extreme in the near future that 800k a year or 65K per month won't be enough for a retiree to survive properly. I can't see any other justification for it. 

Perhaps the powers-that-be feel the need to 'keep up with the Joneses' and think that Thailand should be more like Malaysia, whose fixed deposit for a 'retirement visa' is about USD 37,000 (about THB 1,200,000) which, coincidentally, works out to a 50% increase from THB 800K. A nice round number in THB and a fat percentage increase.

 

Or maybe they and some Thai bankers feel that a little shot-in-the-arm for their balance sheets and statements of cash flows is in order.

 

Or perhaps they just feel they can and many foreigners will put up with it and toe their line.

[onera1961]

19 minutes ago, moontang said:

However, you can walk across the street and get chicken rice for 35 THB, or go around he corner and get the best duck soup on the planet for 40 THB, and I can get a bus home for 9 THB. 

And when you're done in this world, are you going to donate your money to children's hospital? A noble sacrifice indeed. 

[david555]

Another Agents promoting action... , maybe too many expat found a way for transfer how to " in & out & in & out Mary go round thing"... The agents  target became not reached probably ...

[Inn Between]

4 minutes ago, gentlemanjackdarby said:

Perhaps the powers-that-be feel the need to 'keep up with the Joneses' and think that Thailand should be more like Malaysia, whose fixed deposit for a 'retirement visa' is about USD 37,000 (about THB 1,200,000) which, coincidentally, works out to a 50% increase from THB 800K. A nice round number in THB and a fat percentage increase.

 

Or maybe they and some Thai bankers feel that a little shot-in-the-arm for their balance sheets and statements of cash flows is in order.

 

Or perhaps they just feel they can and many foreigners will put up with it and toe their line.

Who knows what evil lurks between the ears of immigration chiefs. My statement that it must be (logically) based on projected inflation rates was actually tongue-in-cheek as I've never known Thai officials to make decisions based much on logic. ???? 

[moontang]

14 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

Every time I go to Sabushi or Sakushi in Pattaya Central, it is packed. last time we had to wait for our seats. If they cant get customers, they will go out of business. Some of the chains I visited in various Bangkok malls 15 years ago are still in business.

Fortunately, only parts of BKK are big tourist traps.  

[Inn Between]

3 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

And when you're done in this world, are you going to donate your money to children's hospital? A noble sacrifice indeed. 

He was pointing out that deals are there to be had, and most people don't have to go to expensive foreign restaurants to find tasty food. What is the value and point of your comment? Frankly, it sounds tacky and childish, but I'll have the grace to assume there was a bit of intelligent thought behind it and open this opportunity for you to explain. 

[Traubert]

Seems to be a good few Americans feeling the heat lately. Quite a few in my circle have fled China too, while the Balkans are flooding in.

 

Strange days indeed.

[moontang]

7 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

And when you're done in this world, are you going to donate your money to children's hospital? A noble sacrifice indeed. 

so you are a philanthropist for eating Korean franchise food?  

[humbug]

frightening what these nationalists can get up to in a very short space of time with no checks and balances. One good thing going forward(if theres anyone of us left) they will never have the popular or majority mandate, not after the disaster we all witnesed at the weekend.

The article could be talking about a host of visas etc, we can all be thinking the worst over any new details right now, not just those on retirement visas.

[onera1961]

so you are a philanthropist for eating Korean franchise food?  

I just want to spend my money when I am done in this world. I don't want to donate. I don't have excess money to donate. But if I only eat 35 BHT meal, I may have excess money. I don't know what to do with excess money.

Sent from my JKM-LX2 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[arithai12]

2 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

a few weeks ago i suggested the amount of money would doubled to 1.6k. but everyone was quick to point out that the existing extensions would be grandfathered in.  like they were the last time it was increased.  

I assume you mean 1.6M. mmm, I think that would be an eye opener for many even if they have the money. Can you imagine, income method of 130k per month? Or 3,600Eur at today's rate. You can live comfortably in a lot of places for that amount.

As for previous increases, they were always associated with a decrease in "retirement age". It's now 50, can't really get lower than that.

 

This said, I would not put anything past what they can think of.

 

[arithai12]

44 minutes ago, gentlemanjackdarby said:

Perhaps the powers-that-be feel the need to 'keep up with the Joneses' and think that Thailand should be more like Malaysia, whose fixed deposit for a 'retirement visa' is about USD 37,000 (about THB 1,200,000) which, coincidentally, works out to a 50% increase from THB 800K. A nice round number in THB and a fat percentage increase.

 

Or maybe they and some Thai bankers feel that a little shot-in-the-arm for their balance sheets and statements of cash flows is in order.

 

Or perhaps they just feel they can and many foreigners will put up with it and toe their line.

Multiply the number of retirees in Malaysia by 1,2M and the number of retirees in Thailand by 0,8M, and I think you will quickly see which bankers are happier.

[Caldera]

5 minutes ago, arithai12 said:

As for previous increases, they were always associated with a decrease in "retirement age". It's now 50, can't really get lower than that.

Actually, as being retired isn't a requirement anyway, they could lower the minimum age or just get rid of it. Personally, I'd get rid of it, leave the 800k amount where it is but make it a bond (which means that the income option would go) and add a health insurance requirement. There's no value in being at least 50 years old in itself. The obvious catch is that these morons would screw up the health insurance requirement, as they've already demonstrated with the Non O-X visa.

[Mike Teavee]

I seem to recall reading a post from Ubon Joe about the retirement limit being set at $2,000 USD per month so if anything the amount should reduce rather than increase (But I can't see that happening).

 

Also recall that the last time they "Grandfathered" people they had to have a certain number of extensions (IIRC 10) under their belt so a lot of people will still be in for a shock if it does increase.

 

If I had to put money on it, I would guess it would increase to 1-1.2 Million but at this number (& certainly if it goes to 1.6 Million) some guys might as well go down the 20 year Thai Elite visa for 1 Million