On 5/14/2019 at 7:17 AM, Cryingdick said:

We have steel, wheat fields as far as the eye can see, more timber than most places, oil, tech, etc. You want wages above $15 an hour? It is simple reject Chinese goods and slave labor from neighboring countries.

Remedial reading: the economic doctrine known as comparative advantage. And while you're at it, you might also want to bone up on something called "opportunity cost".

1 hour ago, metisdead said:

Former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein: Trump’s tariffs aren’t a bad idea

 

KEY POINTS

• “Tariffs might be an effective negotiating tool,” former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein says in a tweet Tuesday evening New York time.
• “China relies more on trade and loses more,” he adds.
• Tariffs may cause U.S. buyers to switch their purchases to local or non-Chinese companies, causing Chinese companies to lose revenues, Blankfein says in a separate tweet.

Read more here:  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/goldman-sachs-ex-ceo-blankfein-tariffs-may-hurt-us-china-loses-more.html

I think it's been discussed at length that in purely economic terms, the USA has a big advantage. But in political terms, not so much. Trump will be facing reelection in 18 months. Xi will not. Xi also has the advantage of controlling the media which, while it may be something Trump dearly longs for, is not yet the case. Also, Xi can play on Chinese resentment of its history of humiliations inflicted on it by Western nations.

13 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

I think it's been discussed at length that in purely economic terms, the USA has a big advantage. But in political terms, not so much. Trump will be facing reelection in 18 months. Xi will not. Xi also has the advantage of controlling the media which, while it may be something Trump dearly longs for, is not yet the case. Also, Xi can play on Chinese resentment of its history of humiliations inflicted on it by Western nations.

Good points, but what if it's not about free trade but about bringinging down the CCP and Xi.  It's a cheaper and better way to go to war than our customary way.

2 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

Good points, but what if it's not about free trade but about bringinging down the CCP and Xi.  It's a cheaper and better way to go to war than our customary way.

Seems an expensive bet on an unlikely outcome. Particularly as regards the downfall of the CCP. 

3 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Seems an expensive bet on an unlikely outcome. Particularly as regards the downfall of the CCP. 

 

The ruling party is about 7% of the population, and I'm sure most of those members are members of convenience, so long as they prosper from the relationship.  Timing not right for the downfall of the CCP but I'd guess Xi is vulnerable if a few things don't go his way.

51 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Seems an expensive bet on an unlikely outcome. Particularly as regards the downfall of the CCP. 

You could have said the same thing about USSR in the '60, but time is on the free world's side. Dictators and dictatorships usually have an expiration date. It might come the day Xi dies, just like China had a major change in course the day Mao died. Time will tell.

Edited May 15, 20197 yr by ExpatOilWorker

3 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

Good points, but what if it's not about free trade but about bringinging down the CCP and Xi.  It's a cheaper and better way to go to war than our customary way.

You never bring down the CCP and Xi that way, they are way more adaptable than the US worker, the Chinese worker can go without luxury much longer than the US worker can. XI stays in power no matter what, doesn't happen in the USA, you get voted out.

About time that China as the more dominate and intelligent global force counter the immature  actions of a corrupt US president. Ban the import of all goods and ban the passage of all US flagged vessels through Chinese waters. Nothing that the US produces is needed by any nation.

Edited May 15, 20197 yr by geoffbezoz

23 minutes ago, geoffbezoz said:

About time that China as the more dominate and intelligent global force counter the immature  actions of a corrupt US president. Ban the import of all goods and ban the passage of all US flagged vessels through Chinese waters. Nothing that the US produces is needed by any nation.

The US is the world's 2nd biggest exporter. And by far the biggest exporter of advanced electronics. Doubt most of the world would agree with you.

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

The US is the world's 2nd biggest exporter. And by far the biggest exporter of advanced electronics. Doubt most of the world would agree with you.

I expected someone to reply who has no grasp of facts. But hey that is modern Americans I guess who actually think Trump is working for the good of the nation.

 

In the meantime, please read

http://www.worldstopexports.com/electronic-circuit-component-exports-country/

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/exports-by-country-20-largest-exporting-countries.html

 

 

11 minutes ago, geoffbezoz said:

I expected someone to reply who has no grasp of facts. But hey that is modern Americans I guess who actually think Trump is working for the good of the nation.

 

In the meantime, please read

http://www.worldstopexports.com/electronic-circuit-component-exports-country/

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/exports-by-country-20-largest-exporting-countries.html

 

 

Advanced electronics. Not all electronics.

An even bigger factor is the way exports are recorded. The most valuable part of say, an Apple Iphone is the chip. But if that's exported to China for assembly it doesn't count as a US export. But the value of the entire Iphone, including that chip is counted as a Chinese export if that's where the Iphone is completely assembled. So these statistics vastly downplay American electronic exports. 

Edited May 15, 20197 yr by bristolboy

2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Advanced electronics. Not all electronics.

Facts are clearly not your strong point.

1 minute ago, geoffbezoz said:

Facts are clearly not your strong point.

Read this and learn something

Designed in California, made in China: how the iPhone skews U.S. trade deficit

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-apple/designed-in-california-made-in-china-how-the-iphone-skews-u-s-trade-deficit-idUSKBN1GX1GZ

ANd of course Apple is far from the only advanced US manufacturer or designer of chips that sends those chips abroad to be assembled into a finished product.

2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Read this and learn something

Designed in California, made in China: how the iPhone skews U.S. trade deficit

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-apple/designed-in-california-made-in-china-how-the-iphone-skews-u-s-trade-deficit-idUSKBN1GX1GZ

ANd of course Apple is far from the only advanced US manufacturer or designer of chips that sends those chips abroad to be assembled into a finished product.

Do you actually understand what you posted  ? clearly not I fear. It just illustrates my point and the facts well.

1 hour ago, geoffbezoz said:

Do you actually understand what you posted  ? clearly not I fear. It just illustrates my point and the facts well.

The point of that article was that the components designed by apple are not counted as US exports but as exports from China. So even though these components were designed by apple and given to contractors to manufacture, since the components are assembled in China, the value of all those components is credited to Chinese exports. Even though China's contribution makes up a miniscule part of value added - according to the article anywere from 3 to 6 percent. And this applies to all advanced US based designers and manufacturers of high end chips. They're not assembled into products in the US so the value of the these products is credited to whatever nation they are assembled in. So even though these electronic goods derive most of their value from US design and/or manufacture, the export figures don't show that.

11 hours ago, bristolboy said:

The point of that article was that the components designed by apple are not counted as US exports but as exports from China. So even though these components were designed by apple and given to contractors to manufacture, since the components are assembled in China, the value of all those components is credited to Chinese exports. Even though China's contribution makes up a miniscule part of value added - according to the article anywere from 3 to 6 percent. And this applies to all advanced US based designers and manufacturers of high end chips. They're not assembled into products in the US so the value of the these products is credited to whatever nation they are assembled in. So even though these electronic goods derive most of their value from US design and/or manufacture, the export figures don't show that.

Which is exactly why your claims are false. The export figures can not show something that is not exported from that country. But the Chinese figures can because that is where the final product is actually exported from !!

5 minutes ago, geoffbezoz said:

Which is exactly why your claims are false. The export figures can not show something that is not exported from that country. But the Chinese figures can because that is where the final product is actually exported from !!

But the Chinese contribution is a small percentage of value. Whereas Apple's contribution is very high. So China gets the export credit whereas America doesn't. So are you saying that the American electronics industry is vastly undervalued in terms of actual exports? Because that's what I was saying.

Another example: Cisco industries, the backbone of the internet, had revenues of 44 billion dollars last year. Virtually none of that is going to be credited as exports coming from the US electronics industry because it's all assembled abroad.

6 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

But the Chinese contribution is a small percentage of value. Whereas Apple's contribution is very high. So China gets the export credit whereas America doesn't. So are you saying that the American electronics industry is vastly undervalued in terms of actual exports? Because that's what I was saying.

Another example: Cisco industries, the backbone of the internet, had revenues of 44 billion dollars last year. Virtually none of that is going to be credited as exports coming from the US electronics industry because it's all assembled abroad.

You stated that the US is the second highest exporter of advanced electronics. period.  Export figures don't lie irrespective of whom the design rights belong to so just accept your statement was completely false as proved to you. If you want to talk about GDP and the derivatives of those figures start a separate thread.