Are we prepared for a Chinese military ‘invasion’?

By The Nation

 

 

Thai foreign policy makers face a crucial dilemma as Beijing and Washington battle for influence in Southeast Asia  

 

Thailand’s foreign policy was hardly mentioned during campaigning for the March 24 election.

 

That omission was unfortunate given that whoever comes to power in Bangkok will have to contend with the rise of China.

 

It would have been nice to get some idea of where the next government will position Thailand amid China’s growing presence in the region and the wider world.

 

Our pressing foreign policy issues are no longer traditional security threats but instead mega-infrastructure investments such as China’s Belt and Road initiative, and doctrine to defend free trade like Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy.

 

Yet looming behind those issues is a broader threat to the stability and security of our region. That threat is crystallised in a question posed by the Nikkei Asian Review yesterday: “A Chinese military base in Southeast Asia? Some say it’s inevitable,” reads the headline. The article notes that China has provoked international outcry for building military facilities in the disputed South China Sea. “But there is another controversial aspect of its global expansion: the sense that, sooner or later, it will need overseas military bases beyond its single existing facility in Djibouti, Africa,” it adds, pointing to growing concern that China’s intercontinental infrastructure initiative – spanning Myanmar and Cambodia to Pakistan and Sri Lanka – will be accompanied by military development.

 

China’s longstanding rival America has warned that a Chinese military base in Southeast Asia would threaten regional stability.

 

But some observers think it’s only a matter of time before Beijing plants military boots on the ground. 

 

“The Chinese will probably eventually have a base in Cambodia,” said Bilahari Kausikan, Singapore’s former Foreign Ministry permanent secretary. 

 

“But I don’t get too excited about it. After all, the Americans have significant use of Singapore facilities, are beginning to reuse some old Philippine and Thai bases, and make occasional use of Malaysian facilities too,” Bilahari told the  Nikkei Asian Review.

 

He also thinks the US will eventually turn to Vietnam and Indonesia to establish low-key military facilities. 

 

The Chinese military does not have the extensive foreign experience that their US counterpart enjoys. However, Southeast Asian leaders know only too well the power of China’s arm-twisting diplomacy. 

 

This brings us back to the incoming Thai government, which will likely be led by the military-backed Phalang Pracharat Party.

 

It must now forge a clear policy on Thailand’s stance in this new regional security environment. Would Bangkok, for instance, tolerate a Chinese military base in Cambodia?

 

Regional tensions may not be on the scale of the Cold War and the Killing Fields of the 1970s, but the stakes are just as high and the political theatre perhaps even more complicated.

 

It’s tempting to brush the situation off as a conflict between the US and China. But as the two superpowers slug it out in the world’s forums, Thailand needs to think long and hard about where it stands. 

 

For now, Bangkok can pat itself in the back over improving ties with neighbouring Myanmar. But let’s not forget that the mess along the border – including rampant drugs- and human-trafficking, a separatist insurgency and overlapping territorial claims – still help define relations between the two countries.

 

Unfortunately, from the silence of the campaign season to the noise of post-election horse-trading, our future leaders appear focused on narrow issues of political self-interest.  But sooner or later, Beijing and Washington will come knocking on their doors. Let’s hope that they don’t do anything stupid.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30370250

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-05-30

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As mentioned, the U.S. has done this for years... I don't see a problem as long as it's a good deal for Thailand.

 

How can it be a invasion when Thailand is opening the front door and rolling out the red carpet for the Chinese to come in.

It depends on just how many white flags that you have to hand...

33 minutes ago, webfact said:

Are we prepared for a Chinese military ‘invasion’?

The Rig-regime definitely is

1 minute ago, Odysseus123 said:

It depends on just how many white flags that you have to hand...

There won't be any waving of white flags as the Thai military would be so busy cr$$ping their pants and running away.

Not of course would there ever be a Chinese military invasion.  No need they are buying off all the Thais with influence anyway, whom no doubt will join their compatriots and move abroad en-mass at any hint of trouble with their ill gotten gains.

Given the current  economic/infrastructural co operation Thailand has with China it would indeed  be a complicated decision if forced  to choose a Military partner.

China is more or less a neighbor and if military conflict were to ensue with the US it would most  likely be in the Asian arena. The US prefers to participate in  conflict well away from it's own  back door.

Armed with Chinese submarines and a military regimen, I don't think the choice is that difficult..

 

But on a more serious note, They will go with whomever they will perceive as the stronger one As they always did.

 

 

Edited May 30, 20197 yr by LongTang

Wars in the traditional sense are making less sense nowadays.  It's more economic conquering via control of financial institutions and policy (think IMF bailouts/terms) or trade control via use of allied group pressure (TPP, CPTPP, G8 etc).

 

Weapons and war mongering are rather used to intimidate, bully, coerce or deter then to conquer outright.

 

Thailand like many other countries can always sit on the fence and watch the 2 bullies smack it out and be friends with both..... until one side gives an ultimatum to choose sides which the Chinese will likely not ask you to do but the US often will.  The Chinese will ask you to talk with your wallet.

Thailand's record for at least the last 100 years is that it is adept at bending & slithering between opposing external forces. Smiling pleasantly all the while ... Nothing new here.

Not even ready for a tourist invasion.

8 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

Thailand's record for at least the last 100 years is that it is adept at bending & slithering between opposing external forces. Smiling pleasantly all the while ... Nothing new here.

The time is drawing near for Thais to start learning to speak Mandarin!

6 minutes ago, Benroon said:

I think you're confusing Thailand with Italy !

Thailand is called the italy of SEA for a reason, in WW2 they did the exact same thing italy did. 

 

Thailand is reasonably  well equipped for a battle.

 

Wasn't it just a few years ago Thailand had a conflict with Cambodia over the jurisdiction of a temple along the border?

 

 

9 minutes ago, watcharacters said:

Thailand is reasonably  well equipped for a battle.

They certainly have enough "General's" canon fodder - sure they will have plenty of "volunteers" from the North East? 

39 minutes ago, smileydude said:

Wars in the traditional sense are making less sense nowadays.  It's more economic conquering via control of financial institutions and policy (think IMF bailouts/terms) or trade control via use of allied group pressure (TPP, CPTPP, G8 etc).

 

Weapons and war mongering are rather used to intimidate, bully, coerce or deter then to conquer outright.

 

Thailand like many other countries can always sit on the fence and watch the 2 bullies smack it out and be friends with both..... until one side gives an ultimatum to choose sides which the Chinese will likely not ask you to do but the US often will.  The Chinese will ask you to talk with your wallet.

 

Seems there's armchair talk about a physical war between China and the US, but I don't believe there is any reason whatever for such a war.

 

Never forgetting bolton who has for years trying to start a war but trump seems to have him under control.

 

But that leaves trump himself, unpredictable and lacking in logic but would he actually start a physical war / shots fired, with China, and would the pentagon obey any such orders if they happened?

 

Then there's China, IMHO China / Mr. Xi is not wanting physical war with anyone, his priority is rebuilding his country in terms of the economy, quality of life and infrastructure and they are making great progress. Seems to me if the US did fire any shots China would respond to show it will not be physically intimidated and to protect itself, but not respond to generate further all out war actions.

 

There's also the overall international attitudes, I somehow doubt many countries would praise either the US or China if a war really started and they would strongly scold whatever country started the conflict (and 'scold' could mean economic punishments of some kind) . Nobody wants such a war.

 

 

 

In the American Army, we had a saying;  "It's better to die on your feet... Then to live your life on your knee's"  

And the Thai's people pick, You know!

"It must now........"   Perhaps they prefer to wait until they forma government.

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Are we prepared for a Chinese military ‘invasion’?

Can't be worse than the current muppets!

a better question, maybe.  who knows?
 

are we ready for a USA implosion?  as in that it is budget deficits, and tax cuts, that are responsible for the USA's trade deficit in spite of the wonderful "miracle" of shale gas and that the USA exports fossil fuels again, as well as airplanes that emit 285 grams of carbon per passenger kilometer traveled... along with Treasury debt once again now that The Fed isn't buying it up. 

 

trade deficits are caused by deficit spending.  not "cheap products" made in China by poorly paid workers that can be "solved" by making Americans pay an import tariff, that Trumper says "the Chinese are paying".  which is as much a bunch of nonsense as that simple physics is a "Chinese Hoax".  as for trains, they come in at 14 grams per passenger kilometer.  and are something China is an expert on, along with..... apparently..... 5G telecom equipment.       

 

China deserves to win not just this new "war".... we love "wars" on this and that in Amerikee.... but China is going to end up looking quite good I think.  And I am as American as apple pie.  100% for sure.  you can't take away where I was born.  cause I already was. 

Edited May 30, 20197 yr by WeekendRaider

1 hour ago, ThomasThBKK said:

Thailand is called the italy of SEA for a reason, in WW2 they did the exact same thing italy did. 

The exact role of Thailand in WWII interests me, any particular books you can recommend for reference? Yes I know I can google it but you may know someething better.

50 minutes ago, watcharacters said:

 

Thailand is reasonably  well equipped for a battle.

 

Wasn't it just a few years ago Thailand had a conflict with Cambodia over the jurisdiction of a temple along the border?

 

 

And on Friday evenings the Cambodian troops left their weapons at home and came to the market on the Thai side

Some battle, and both sides relied heavily on their amulets  ????

The exact role of Thailand in WWII interests me, any particular books you can recommend for reference? Yes I know I can google it but you may know someething better.

Yes actually this one:
A History of Thailand by Chris Baker & Pasuk Phongpaichit

It's a complete overview tho not focused on the ww2 time alone.

Pridi by Pridi is also a very interesting book, it's about Pridi Banomyong who's known as the father of thai democracy and his life including the WW2 era.

Sent from my LYA-L29 using Tapatalk

In true fickle style, they may side with one country to then side with the other, as they did when they sided with Axis to then change their mind when the Japanese took control of the administration; could that be considered colonising even if it was for a short period? to then side with the allies who they declared war on in the first place!

 

Who ever offers the big bucks will win. It's only ever about money...

 

This will be interesting.

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Are we prepared for a Chinese military ‘invasion’?

Many years ago they asked a similar question of the Malaysian PM, Mahathir probably, "What will you do in case China attacks?"

 

His response, "Surrender, of course."

If Thailand is forced to choose between their neighbor to the north, China (soon to have the largest economy in the world) or the USA with a disparate culture, rudderless government and capricious president; who would they side with? There are many flash-points that could lead to war: Taiwan independence issue, South China Sea militarization, and the never ending trade war. If the Sino-U.S. cold war turns hot and casualties mount, would any westerners be welcome in Chinese dominated Asia? When Japan swept through Asia 80 years ago, westerners ended up in prison camps and were used for forced labor on the "Death Railway." I hope for the best, but plan for the worst. If things go sideways, I'm heading straight for the airport.

If Thailand is forced to choose between their neighbor to the north, China (soon to have the largest economy in the world) or the USA with a disparate culture, rudderless government and capricious president; who would they side with? There are many flash-points that could lead to war: Taiwan independence issue, South China Sea militarization, and the never ending trade war. If the Sino-U.S. cold war turns hot and casualties mount, would any westerners be welcome in Chinese dominated Asia? When Japan swept through Asia 80 years ago, westerners ended up in prison camps and were used for forced labor on the "Death Railway." I hope for the best, but plan for the worst. If things go sideways, I'm heading straight for the airport.

I disagree. 

The US and it's allies, mainly Europe, SG, Australia, India, Japan, korea would survive that.

But the chinese economy is nothing more than a house of cards that would explode.

China isn't worth anything if they can't export their goods to their main customerbase which is in thr US allied nations. China is the last country that wants war imo.

 

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The Chinese are attempting and will be in control of this place in 10 years.  They will do it all with money, not military.

The Chinese are attempting and will be in control of this place in 10 years.  They will do it all with money, not military.

That's what everyone said about Japan too.

 

Did end no good.

 

I would be surprised if china still exists in 10 years as it is today. Communist countries don't have a good track record, east germany never recovered till today.

 

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1 hour ago, watcharacters said:

 

Thailand is reasonably  well equipped for a battle.

 

Wasn't it just a few years ago Thailand had a conflict with Cambodia over the jurisdiction of a temple along the border?

 

 

And guess who won, Preah Vihear was found by the international court to belong to Cambodia.