Thai Baht Still Climbing

[DavidOxon]

Or to put it another way . . . My sterling savings for my Thai life falling in value!

Now we're a month or so into the current baht situation . . .

anyone care to share their best guess at what's gonna happen . .

carry on climbing, bounce back down again sharpish, or maintain the

status quo or none of the above!

Have a good one

David

[bendix]

It's purely speculation, but the history of these things shows that speculative rises like these are usually followed by a collapse - look at the world sharemarkets in 1987 and 2001. Different asset class for sure, but the principle is the same.

So far as I can make out (and I'm no topfield) there are very few sound economic reasons for such rapid appreciation by the Thai Baht over the last year. If it was purely US dollar weakness I could put it down to that, but the Baht is equally strong against the Aussie, Kiwi and Pound also. In the absence of any tangible reason for this bizarre strength, surely there must be a correction sooner or later.

[Livinginexile]

I need to send about AU$120,000 for final payment for my condo in the next couple of months and I'm getting pretty nervouse about the apreciating baht. But I KNOW if I send my money NOW... the baht will drop like a stone.

Sheesh, I wish I had a crystal (baht) ball.

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

It's purely speculation, but the history of these things shows that speculative rises like these are usually followed by a collapse - look at the world sharemarkets in 1987 and 2001. Different asset class for sure, but the principle is the same.

So far as I can make out (and I'm no topfield) there are very few sound economic reasons for such rapid appreciation by the Thai Baht over the last year. If it was purely US dollar weakness I could put it down to that, but the Baht is equally strong against the Aussie, Kiwi and Pound also. In the absence of any tangible reason for this bizarre strength, surely there must be a correction sooner or later.

The word in the hedge fund world is that some tycoon is repatriating assets back into Thai baht, waiting to finance a political campaign.

[bendix]

The word in the hedge fund world is that some tycoon is repatriating assets back into Thai baht, waiting to finance a political campaign.

Really? So stevemarigno is behind all this?

[Who, me ?]

don't know who's behind, but I know what it does !!!

[steveromagnino]

The word in the hedge fund world is that some tycoon is repatriating assets back into Thai baht, waiting to finance a political campaign.

Really? So stevemarigno is behind all this?

oi, don't interfere if you know what is good for you. I am setting up an enterprise of great competitive advantage, but for no investors to know what it is.

You'll keep your trap shut if you know what is good for you. Last person to interfere with my schemes got kicked out of office and sent to engrind. Speaking of which please let me check my schedule for today:

1. low protein breakfast

2. buy 2b baht, sell 2b worth of Aussie dollars

3. build an enterprise of great competitive advantage but for no investors to know what it is

4. Advise client regarding second hand book investments

5. Single malt Laphroig served neat

Ah yes, there it is, point 2. So you might be onto something.

Victory is mine.

[Mid]

call when you get to 5

[steveromagnino]

call when you get to 5

when the revolution comes, my friend, you and I shall be sipping on Laphroig and Craigimore while some of our colleagues on TV go to the gallows.

Or is that gateaus? I always forgot.

[BigSnake]

My Guess it will keep on climbing for the next three months, do hope I am wrong on this one. Who knows?? Over to you.

[samran]

call when you get to 5

when the revolution comes, my friend, you and I shall be sipping on Laphroig and Craigimore while some of our colleagues on TV go to the gallows.

Or is that gateaus? I always forgot.

remember the deal steve, you get Thailand, but NZ is definetly merged as the 7th Australian state when I become ruler of the world. We'll have to flog off Queensland to someone though...no-one wants that.

M&A is always good for rugby teams.

[topfield]

Bendix is so right. Nobody can explain why a country in political turmoil and under a military junta should have a currency that rises and rises on an almost daily basis. It can be argued that the baht is now amongst the strongest currencies in the world. Did you know that the rate in the UK today is only 63 ?... the pound not been so low in ten years !

The following is for UK sterling based expats :

You should know that the baht is invariably quoted against the US dollar not against sterling. The baht pound rate is really two rates...the pound against the dollar and the baht against the dollar multiplied together and each is governed by entirely different considerations.

1. The cable or sterling dollar rate : more predictable free market rate influenced directly by factors such as UK interest rates , inflation rates , UK house prices and the UK economy in general. This half of the equation is predictable and if you know your stuff you can make a reasoned prediction/judgement.

2. The other half of the equation is the baht dollar rate onshore. Thus part is totally unpredictable and largely controlled by political factors. Not once has the BOT explained how it gets the onshore rate.

A cabal of bankers perhaps meeting at 7.30 every morning in K.Tarisa's office at the BOT to decide the rate ? [ not so fanciful as this is exactly what happened on the 2nd July 1997 if you read A Century of Asia published by Citibank . A rate was just drawn out of a hat ! ]

Every day politicians talk about the 30 percent rule...but not about the onshore rate ..at least not publicly . Its almost as if a conspiracy existed to prevent the dual rate system being known. The proof lies in the fact that there exists no public rate sheet to my knowledge showing onshore and offshore rates side by side.

To sum up : take your reasoned view on the cable rate and take your guess on the onshore baht dollar rate, multiply them together ...and BINGO you have your prediction !

Edited March 12, 2007 by topfield

[samran]

The word in the hedge fund world is that some tycoon is repatriating assets back into Thai baht, waiting to finance a political campaign.

Really? So stevemarigno is behind all this?

Actually, it is all a front.

'Heng' industries, is the true financier. He's a bit shy though, and wants to split his time between Yowarat and Texas, while the world is taken over on his behalf.

[steveromagnino]

To sum up : take your reasoned view on the cable rate and take your guess on the onshore baht dollar rate, multiply them...and bingo you have your answer !

My friend, I have played bingo extensively, my other's obsession with Bingo was what paid for my education. However, i cannot follow your logic. I have many views some reasonably good and some not so good, my office looks over CentralWorld for instance. And yet I can also lay a good cable on the shore, but I cannot go forth and multiply for the life of me. Can you elaborate your example of quick profit taking?

As for you Samran, merging and purging in Aussie and Kiwiland...well we can put that into Phase 2.

Edited March 12, 2007 by steveromagnino

[topfield]

Bendix is so right. Nobody can explain why a country in political turmoil and under a military junta should have a currency that rises and rises on an almost daily basis. It can be argued that the baht is now amongst the strongest currencies in the world. Did you know that the rate in the UK today is only 63 ?... the pound not been so low in ten years !

The following is for UK sterling based expats :

You should know that the baht is invariably quoted against the US dollar not against sterling. The baht pound rate is really two rates...the pound against the dollar and the baht against the dollar multiplied together and each is governed by entirely different considerations.

1. The cable or sterling dollar rate : more predictable free market rate influenced directly by factors such as UK interest rates , inflation rates , UK house prices and the UK economy in general. This half of the equation is predictable and if you know your stuff you can make a reasoned prediction/judgement.

2. The other half of the equation is the baht dollar rate onshore. Thus part is totally unpredictable and largely controlled by political factors. Not once has the BOT explained how it gets the onshore rate.

A cabal of bankers perhaps meeting at 7.30 every morning in K.Tarisa's office at the BOT to decide the rate ? [ not so fanciful as this is exactly what happened on the 2nd July 1997 if you read A Century of Asia published by Citibank . A rate was just drawn out of a hat ! ]

Every day politicians talk about the 30 percent rule...but not about the onshore rate ..at least not publicly . Its almost as if a conspiracy existed to prevent the dual rate system being known. The proof lies in the fact that there exists no public rate sheet to my knowledge showing onshore and offshore rates side by side.

To sum up : take your reasoned view on the cable rate and take your guess on the onshore baht dollar rate, multiply them together ...and BINGO you have your prediction !

Steve, Not intended as a guide to quick profit taking only as a way to make a reasoned judgement on which way the baht is likely to go against the pound !

[sfokevin]

One thing I think we can all agree on is that Dr Tarisa at BOT has no control over the exchange rate....

[Naam]

One thing I think we can all agree on is that Dr Tarisa at BOT has no control over the exchange rate....

i'll drink to that!

[Norrad]

Am I the only one who is not concerned about this trend? I earn a salary here in Thailand and it is now cheaper for me to travel outside the country. My Baht goes further.

I am concerned that it might come crashing down though. So I have been buying gold as a safety net. If the Baht crashes, gold should go up as it is tied to an international rate.

[steveromagnino]

Am I the only one who is not concerned about this trend? I earn a salary here in Thailand and it is now cheaper for me to travel outside the country. My Baht goes further.

I am concerned that it might come crashing down though. So I have been buying gold as a safety net. If the Baht crashes, gold should go up as it is tied to an international rate.

I have invested heavily in the Thai stock market over the last 5 years. Thus if the baht crashes, then it would not matter as the Thai share market will go up thanks to all the stupid foreigners planting money into Thai stocks at bargain prices.

For some reason my portfolio of ITV, Picnic and Distar aren't doing that well though, ah well, they will go up soon enough :-) 5555

More seriously, investing in funds or other currencies is one way to diversify as you are doing with gold. However, being that gold is at a high, you might want to consider some other options too. I too earn Thai baht. I too am a friend of the people. I too am taking over a medium sized country for the purposes of expanding my profitable business ventures.

however, when Topfield shares his profit taking strategy, then the world will not be enough. I will have the moon too.

[Norrad]

I have a US Dollar and Euro account too, but I seem to be investing more in gold at the moment. This is making my girlfriend very happy as she can show everyone the safe full of gold when the family visits (I think she still wishes it was in jewellery form instead of bars, though )

[topfield]

Am I the only one who is not concerned about this trend? I earn a salary here in Thailand and it is now cheaper for me to travel outside the country. My Baht goes further.

I am concerned that it might come crashing down though. So I have been buying gold as a safety net. If the Baht crashes, gold should go up as it is tied to an international rate.

My personal opinion is that the baht will not crash in the near and medium term. Reserves are rising at an astonishing pace and might even top a hundred billion if this dual eachange rate continues. Also note how the rate rises each day little by little , not in one swift jump. This is a sign of solid stability especially as the yuan is also rising in a similar fashion.

Others may of course think differently about prospects for the baht.

[Temporaneo]

For some reason my portfolio of ITV, Picnic and Distar aren't doing that well though, ah well, they will go up soon enough :-) 5555

try adding CEI ,SGF and TT&T

[steveromagnino]

For some reason my portfolio of ITV, Picnic and Distar aren't doing that well though, ah well, they will go up soon enough :-) 5555

try adding CEI ,SGF and TT&T

Yes, I do believe we are on the same page Temporaneo.

TT&T. Absolute classic, I had forgotten about that chestnut. :-)

[topfield]

For some reason my portfolio of ITV, Picnic and Distar aren't doing that well though, ah well, they will go up soon enough :-) 5555

try adding CEI ,SGF and TT&T

Yes, I do believe we are on the same page Temporaneo.

TT&T. Absolute classic, I had forgotten about that chestnut. :-)

.....and also that wretched Thai family owned internet Co three four years ago. Cannot for the life of me remember their name.....can you ?

[Temporaneo]

For some reason my portfolio of ITV, Picnic and Distar aren't doing that well though, ah well, they will go up soon enough :-) 5555

try adding CEI ,SGF and TT&T

Yes, I do believe we are on the same page Temporaneo.

TT&T. Absolute classic, I had forgotten about that chestnut. :-)

.....and also that wretched Thai family owned internet Co three four years ago. Cannot for the life of me remember their name.....can you ?

It is too late to invest in that jewel that was CIRKIT....you can however try to obtain the same astonishing result buying N-PARK