Sagging exports to drive down economic growth to as low as 3.3% this year, research house says

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT / THE NATION

 

 

Krungthai Macro Research has slashed its forecast for Thailand’s economic growth this year to 3.3 per cent, against the 3.8 per cent expansion it forecast in the first quarter of this year.

 

  Exports were singled out as the key negative factor driving down growth in gross domestic product (GDP). The research group on Thursday predicted that the value of shipments will by grow by only 0.8 per cent, largely due to the effects of the trade war between the US and China and the appreciation of the baht since the beginning of the year. 

The baht is predicted to reach 30.25 to the US dollar by the end of 2019. Krungthai Macro Research expects the Bank of Thailand to maintain its policy rate at 1.75 per cent into 2020.

 

Source: http://www.nationthailand.com/business/30372289

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand  2019-07-04

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

14 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

largely due to the effects of the trade war between the US and China

They use this every time as an excuse for the down-going economy, but the surrounding countries in the contrary make better result due to the effect of the trade war between those 2 countries.

i think there is a hidden problem about the Thai economy,there is a sharp deep in the first quarter GDP,i think really the GDP growth will coming to 1,5% and not the up 3%.The BOT export growth figures show sharp drops  and certainly the first quarter of this year,too much household debt,low wages and low crop prices.And there ar also the complications of trade war between USA and China,the crisis will be happen slowly but it will happen.Wait and see

56 minutes ago, vivananahuahin said:

i think there is a hidden problem about the Thai economy,there is a sharp deep in the first quarter GDP,i think really the GDP growth will coming to 1,5% and not the up 3%.The BOT export growth figures show sharp drops  and certainly the first quarter of this year,too much household debt,low wages and low crop prices.And there ar also the complications of trade war between USA and China,the crisis will be happen slowly but it will happen.Wait and see

agree, and the money people wanting the high baht for their overseas investments are holding the baht high for exactly that purpose - to hell with Thailands most important market - exports and tourism

I would take a small bet that it will be lower still !

And then again the baht grows stronger tomorrow. No, nothing to see here, no manipulation going on.

Edited July 4, 20197 yr by Matzzon

9 hours ago, RotMahKid said:

They use this every time as an excuse for the down-going economy, but the surrounding countries in the contrary make better result due to the effect of the trade war between those 2 countries.

The simple fact is that Thailand is not competitive anymore.

 

One of the categories I buy is shrimp and Thai exports are down 10% year on year. Retailers are moving their sourcing away from Thailand to countries such as India, Vietnam and Indonesia where product is cheaper and of similar quality.

 

Vietnam is set to sign a FTA with the EU very soon and will be allowed to apply for licenses to export value-added chicken, another of Thailands large export markets. I can't see them being competitive when labour is so much cheaper in Vietnam and the baht is so strong. If they don't raise interest rates soon to alleviate the baht they'll have a hard time luring customers back.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 20197 yr by Chelseafan

For banks, the central bank's monetary policy is optimal, not so for export and national business!

BoT is drunk on hot money foreign inflows.  Hot money means more to them than the entire export industry and tourist industry.

If they blame the trade war on their faltering economy—-then maybe Thailand has allied itself with the wrong side—China...

Edited July 5, 20197 yr by Isaan sailor
Sp

If they are predicting a fall in GDP from 3.8 to 3.3 you can be sure the real number will be less than 2 percent. Tourist spending down (the TAT may be claiming tourist numbers will be up on the year, I am talking about what tourists spend in Thailand) exports down, productivity down, more expats leaving/dying than arriving. At some point the BOT will come to its senses and lower the interest to weaken the baht and stimulate the economy. 

1 hour ago, Ulic said:

At some point the BOT will come to its senses and lower the interest to weaken the baht and stimulate the economy. 

The BOT has become a government pawn. Its "senses" do not rule BOT's policies nor obviously do economics. It will be more likely that "panic" and not senses needs to prevail to see BOT devalue the baht.

Most 'developed' Western nations would give their eye teeth for annual growth of 3.3 percent.

and just remember folks the bounce back touted for 2H 2019 is not because thailand will be doing any better its because 2H 2018 figures were so bad thailand cannot do any worse!

 

way to go.

Edited July 5, 20197 yr by GeorgeCross