A few weeks ago I would have said "unlikely"; now, I must change to "probably". Israeli's attacks and invasions in the Middle East have caused global oil, LNG and fertilizer shocks. Putin is a big winner here - more funds from oil sales will permit the purchase/manufacture of more weapons and recruiting more (foreign) soldiers. The US is distracted (thank you Bibi), so Putin will increase grey zone actions against western Europe and physical attacks on Ukraine. The US is moving more military assets to the Middle East, which will give China, North Korea and Russia the opportunity to more aggressively enact their expansion plans and grey zone activities - expect cyber attacks disabling critical computer systems (no more international funds transfers???). The global oil shock will likely increase the intensity of the many smaller regional conflicts which generally do not make the international news. I hope that I am wrong, but ...