Baht speculation curbed but Thailand still open to long-term foreign investment: BOT

[RotBenz8888]

54 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

Fascinating!

My vision of the chart is mood swings during and in between menstruation periods.

The mood swing on TV when T30 threat articles are presented.

[KKr]

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Typo surly. Should read outflow.

this post is about the value of the Baht in relation to other currencies.
so sur-ly not a typo.

[Tgcoll]

I think some foreign business men in thailand has faced some visa defficulty in area of extention, the foreign investors are not stupid, many of them are afraid of losing their money, digestion# I think more love should be shown to them not like u don't need them,  Thailand is a good place for business but it's all about good counselor to guard the system.

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Typo surly. Should read outflow.

Chinese. They need to get the money they manage to scam in the reverse mergers in the US out before the commie government takes it. It's dirty money.

[KKr]

The chart is a visualization of the THB development over the last five years. 
Lower three lines against USD; SGD (as a proxy for Asia) and EUR (as a proxy for Europe, GBP has sidelined itself imho )
As a reality check USD/EURO (inverted from usually quoted EUR/USD rate to keep the chart readable) and USG/SGD in upper two lines.

Investment inflow will in principle create demand for THB (unless the funds are locally borrowed).
On the other hand, "hot money" may drive up, or tank a currency (Think Soros vs. GBP a few years back) and is therefore usually discouraged by CB's.
( How a limit on the current account of a foreign account holder would accomplish that is beyond me, as usually the speculator would either lend short term to the banking system or buy short term debentures. )
From the Chart, it seems the THB is more or less tagged to the USD ( USD lower just 3.7 % against THB ), and therefore Europeans receive less THB for the EURO as the Euro lost about 20 % of its value from 1.30 to 1.10 range.

And, as a sidenote, if there is something tickling virginibus puerisque or other puberal phantasies when looking at a chart like this, it may be time to visit someone who will explain a graphical Rorschach test for you.

[DrTuner]

5 minutes ago, KKr said:

usually the speculator would either lend short term to the banking system or buy short term debentures.

Is there any info from BoT about how many treasury notes, or whatever they call 'em here, have been sold and to who?

[Baerboxer]

5 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Link one financial article to support your position because it's fantasy with no financial expert support.  The pound is dropping and the Euro is dropping and the Aussie dollar is dropping independently of the baht. 

 

He never said those currencies weren't dropping! They are but the baht is appreciating significantly against a basket of currencies. Other ASEAN member currencies are also doing well.

 

Now, given that the fundamentals aren't strongly increasing in proportion; the inherent risks with corruption and instability that plague Asian countries; the adverse effect on their economies v potential good effects etc - why do you think the baht is so strong and gaining strength?

 

 

[KKr]

20 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Is there any info from BoT about how many treasury notes, or whatever they call 'em here, have been sold and to who?

https://www.bot.or.th/English/DebtSecurities/Auction/Result/Pages/default.aspx
https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=715&language=eng

but unfortunately I did not find a listing by maturity date,
and T-bonds graph shows no data.
 

Edited July 26, 2019 by KKr

[kevinmartyn]

You have to be a member of "The Raving Loony political party to ever consider investment in the unstable Thai financial World!

 

[Percy P]

9 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

with each retiree putting 800,000 in the bank maybe they can talk to immigration

 Retirees are not speculating. 800000B is a trivial amount in comparison to someone who puts 300,000000B in a Thai company for the soul purpose speculating . So if the currency were to increase to 350,000000 then withdrew it. 

[smedly]

4 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Aussie dollar 2014 .95 today .70  Pound 2014 1.69  Today 1.25

 

 

no clue what that even means - are you having a laugh or what

[DrTuner]

15 minutes ago, KKr said:

https://www.bot.or.th/English/DebtSecurities/Auction/Result/Pages/default.aspx

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=715&language=eng

Thanks. Doesn't look like non-residents have been buying bonds. Must be other channels then.

[KKr]

11 minutes ago, kevinmartyn said:

You have to be a member of "The Raving Loony political party to ever consider investment in the unstable Thai financial World!

 

welcome to the Party.
why investing your time on a discussion about Thailand otherwise.

[geoffbezoz]

6 minutes ago, smedly said:

no clue what that even means - are you having a laugh or what

No no , that is the answer, what we have to do is guess the question ????

[KKr]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Thanks. Doesn't look like non-residents have been buying bonds. Must be other channels then.

or some local speculation.
In any case, if the Baht is informally pegged to the USD, then there is no speculation. 
(3 or 5 % up or down in a quarter or so is a stable market, sometimes that happens during one day of volatile trading ! )
Just trade and politics driven foreign exchange flows between the big blocks.

[marcusarelus]

8 minutes ago, smedly said:

no clue what that even means - are you having a laugh or what

You asked what the Aussie dollar and pound was dropping relative to.  Aussie dollar 2014 .95 today .70  Pound 2014 1.69  Today 1.25 I believe the pound will soon hit parity with the USD. 

[marcusarelus]

23 minutes ago, kevinmartyn said:

You have to be a member of "The Raving Loony political party to ever consider investment in the unstable Thai financial World!

I put 16k USD in a Thai bank in 2005.  Now it is worth 26k USD and also paid 2% interest for 15 years.  Is that the raving loony party?  However I should mention for those who like small returns on investment and are now leaving Thailand for shortage of funds I was told the same thing in 2005.

Edited July 26, 2019 by marcusarelus

[KKr]

35 minutes ago, Percy P said:

 Retirees are not speculating. 800000B is a trivial amount in comparison to someone who puts 300,000000B in a Thai company for the soul purpose speculating . So if the currency were to increase to 350,000000 then withdrew it. 

for a serious institution abroad, a 10 million USD foreign exchange position is not a very large position.
Just imagine the implied foreign exchange risk from changes in production cost for a major car producer. JPY dropped by only 9.6 % against the THB.

 

Edited July 26, 2019 by KKr

[Billy The Kid]

Boycott a trip to Thailand will awaken them . 

[geoffbezoz]

14 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

I put 16k USD in a Thai bank in 2005.  Now it is worth 26k USD and also paid 2% interest for 15 years.  Is that the raving loony party?  However I should mention for those who like small returns on investment and are now leaving Thailand for shortage of funds I was told the same thing in 2005.

That's an interesting concept that you have received 15 years worth of interest on monies only deposited for 14 years (2005 to current year, 2019), Which bank is that please that pay 1 years interest in advance ?

[marcusarelus]

6 minutes ago, geoffbezoz said:

That's an interesting concept that you have received 15 years worth of interest on monies only deposited for 14 years (2005 to current year, 2019), Which bank is that please that pay 1 years interest in advance ?

Depends on when you deposit the money and when you figure the interest.  In all fairness aren't you being a bit pedantic?  The guy said you'd have to be loony to deposit money in a Thai bank and I've proved him terribly wrong.  It is easier to write 15 years than 14 years 6 months and 25 days. 

[jany123]

5 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Trump's trade wars are forcing many large companies to move manufacturing away from China because of increased costs. Companies like iPhone. They are looking to expand in other south East Asian countries, but not Thailand

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/07/30/trade-war-casualties-factories-shifting-out-of-china/#63b405ac103e

This opinion piece is over a year old... so I suppose we can use it more effectively as a gauge on the trumps winning or loosing his war

 

and the looser..... the trump

 

anyway.... it was a looser flame from the get go, just look at the heading, whereas the article comes straight out of the gates saying companies where moving to cheaper manufacturers already, suggesting the trade war might simply be a timely shove, for those remainers still undecided.

Edited July 26, 2019 by jany123

[Derek B]

8 hours ago, dotpoom said:

800,000 Bt...is not foreign money?

It more often than not originates from overseas retirees funds.

[Derek B]

2 hours ago, KKr said:

for a serious institution abroad, a 10 million USD foreign exchange position is not a very large position.
Just imagine the implied foreign exchange risk from changes in production cost for a major car producer. JPY dropped by only 9.6 % against the THB.

 

Didn't Toyota manufacturing recently move to another ASEAN country to avoid flooding due to a lack of Thai investment in water infrastructure to prevent flooding of their plant.

[johnarth]

5 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Trump's trade wars are forcing many large companies to move manufacturing away from China because of increased costs. Companies like iPhone. They are looking to expand in other south East Asian countries, but not Thailand

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/07/30/trade-war-casualties-factories-shifting-out-of-china/#63b405ac103e

hope so that should force the baht down but then that is common sense so expect the baht to go up to get a share of the market the days of common sense have disappeared it seems if the Aussie dollar is falling like I read here Australia should be in line to grab a few of these companies but the world market I read has the dollar down a bit one week but up again the next what you could call steady now days omg

[Number 6]

12 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Link one financial article to support your position because it's fantasy with no financial expert support.  The pound is dropping and the Euro is dropping and the Aussie dollar is dropping independently of the baht. 

Weren't you the guy that asked me this last week? I provided you a link.

 

The statement is malformed and inaccurate but we can still understand the gist.

 

BOT is keeping thb high for xyz reason. Meanwhile every other country that wants to export and tourism is racing to devalue thru various financial mechanisms.

 

It makes imports cheap and allows black and gray money to leave the country for safe havens.

[MaxYakov]

The BoT can relax because I'll be doing my economic patriotic duty by NOT putting ANY money into a Thai bank. ????

[marcusarelus]

11 hours ago, Number 6 said:

Weren't you the guy that asked me this last week? I provided you a link.

 

The statement is malformed and inaccurate but we can still understand the gist.

 

BOT is keeping thb high for xyz reason. Meanwhile every other country that wants to export and tourism is racing to devalue thru various financial mechanisms.

 

It makes imports cheap and allows black and gray money to leave the country for safe havens.

Thailand can't keep the baht high.  1. They don't want to.  2.  It's illegal.  3 They don't have enough money to do so.  Other countries can't devalue for the same reasons.  Money is valued in a free market with some notable exceptions like China which everyone is upset about and it starts trade wars.  Your posting goofy bar talk with no substance.  If you make a claim back it up.  

[marcusarelus]

34 minutes ago, MaxYakov said:

The BoT can relax because I'll be doing my economic patriotic duty by NOT putting ANY money into a Thai bank. ????

Why put money in a Thai bank you don't live in Thailand?  I don't put money in Russian banks either.  

[cerox]

Now for the first time today Transferwise shows me below 34k THB per 1.000 EUR. I do not know about you guys but where is your limit?

If we get to 30 THB per EUR - I can live in Europe better for my money, not in the big cities, but small towns are fine as I did before.