Strong baht, lack of westerners, will it really hurt thailand

[nomad2019]

 

Heard it read it many times in past few months about the baht is crushing tourism, whether the pattaya monger the ex retired pat or the ordinary Joe tourist, how will thailand fare in the coming years from the bar girl rice farmer to the ordinary business people trying to warn a living from tourism. Now I've also heard the argument that the chines and jays and Indians are making up the figures but I never see indians spend money, never ! Chinese tourists do the boat trips,the island tours etc but I've never really seen any I'm restaurants or bars. Russians are going elsewhere too like Vietnam.

 

Then we have more visa regulations stopping westerners coming or staying, the Thai authorities it seems are he'll bent on ruining things for farangs though I hear they're offering free visa to indians and Chinese ?

 

Just exactly how do you see things going from here ?

 

Sent from my SM-T560 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

 

 

[Kwasaki]

It's not so crowded in Suk over the last 3 - 4 years.

[meand]

If every westerner flew out of Thailand tomorrow they would be fine. We are the only ones who do not seem to realize that. 

 

Sure, some businesses would be hurt, but places like Taco joints and bars. Do you think Thais really care? 

 

Take Huawei as an example, no US sales, and now second place in the world behind Samsung in phone sales. 

 

Life goes on, the average deal in Thailand is between Thais and other Thai or Asian companies. Foreigners think the red carpet should be laid out for them because they feel the entire economy would collapse without them. This is the problem, the entitlement.

 

The truth is Pattaya and Walking Street would shut down, and Thailand would probably be better off for it. The truth is not popular, but it is still the truth. 

[worgeordie]

The lack of Westerners would not be a problem, but less tourists,exports will be,

then spending like a drunken sailor ,the government could be making matters 

worse.

regards worgeordie

[Steve Vincent]

I have visited many countries around the world and Thailand is one of the most beautiful places on earth. Sadly it’s being run by idiots who don’t understand business. Pattaya was once a small sleepy fishing village before farang started arriving ...... it thrived with new businesses opening ( bars,shops,hotels,roadworks reconstructed ) 

-

then in 2007 the recession hit plummeting the baht down to 54 its continued falling ever since _ why has the baht remained so strong when every other currency around the world has struggled ? Corruption is rife in Thailand and run by the army - free visas for Chinese and Indians ? Laughable as the Chinese spend little mainly visiting garden centres and massage parlours or boat trips to the smaller islands,spending little in the community,.whilst the Indians sit on beach road sharing a bottle of Leo between 4 ! 

-

many thais who now live abroad and have taken out loans are struggling to repay the banks with some losing there properties in the process simply because of a strong baht. Foreigners who own properties and businesses have sold up and returned home. 

  

[Puchaiyank]

Indians will flock here to setup corrupt enterprises...Chinese will come to purchase valuable resources...marry young Thai women to raise their Chinese wife's children and do housework...expats from most other countries will be the butt of jokes for raising Thai men's children, building homes, and taking care of the elderly family members...

 

It will be all good!

[NCC1701A]

57 minutes ago, nomad2019 said:

Chinese tourists do the boat trips,the island tours etc but I've never really seen any I'm restaurants or bars.

that is because you are not in restaurants they go to.

they don't want to be anywhere near you or any other white people.

they have many places they go to and are spending big money. far more that all other tourists.

[ThomasThBKK]

Everyone saying westerns or expats in general leaving would not be a problem don't have the slightest understanding of economics....

 

Guess who's running/managing BMW, Harley, Hilton, Marriot, Toyota, Samsung etc here - ohhh right. 

They would just give these management positons to the vast amout of overqualified trustable thais - yeah sure.  No they pack up and go, killing hundreds of thousands of thai work places.

 

 

[BestB]

53 minutes ago, meand said:

If every westerner flew out of Thailand tomorrow they would be fine. We are the only ones who do not seem to realize that. 

 

Sure, some businesses would be hurt, but places like Taco joints and bars. Do you think Thais really care? 

 

Take Huawei as an example, no US sales, and now second place in the world behind Samsung in phone sales. 

 

Life goes on, the average deal in Thailand is between Thais and other Thai or Asian companies. Foreigners think the red carpet should be laid out for them because they feel the entire economy would collapse without them. This is the problem, the entitlement.

 

The truth is Pattaya and Walking Street would shut down, and Thailand would probably be better off for it. The truth is not popular, but it is still the truth. 

Would agree with you if it was not the  western money that made Thailand into what it is.

 

remember tsunami ? Sure was not thai government or other Asian countries who came to the rescue and poorer in millions if not billions of baht.

 

yes, if an average pensioner would leave then not much would happen but if all western investment would leave , Thailand would go back to Stone Age.

 

you say bars , how do you think all the hard working farmers survive in isaan if not for their daughters selling their <deleted>?

 

thai do not want them anymore, well past due date . How would all the granny’s who fill up most bars these days survive?

 

you say if taco was to close thai would not care , see many kfc or McDonald’s or pizza companies going out of business ? I only see more and more new ones opening up .

 

Your example of Huawei is ridiculous, it’s only been banned recently , wait a year or two and see which spot it would be at

 

Edited August 18, 2019 by BestB

[Number 6]

This is the common wisdom. Thailand won't so much as blink but if tourism does in fact represent 10-15% of the economy you can bet it would be felt if even 50% was lost.

 

Thai officials don't care. At a certain level they shouldn't. Sloppy tourism doesn't trump national security. At another level stupidity like tm30 for retiree and not having some clear path for visitors to spend 3-4 months of the year is folly.

 

It will all be fine until one fell swoop the world economy tanks and a bunch of expats go home. Boom!

 

Then with the baht into the stratosphere the economy goes right in the toilet.

 

Most also don't consider the 800k in the bank. Under fractional reserve banking this can be loaned out at 90% of value. I mention this bc we are just all tourists on temporary stay.

 

Can Thailand suffer a few thousand less Chinese or sex tourists? Sure. Can it lose 50% of it's tourism? 80%? Doubt.

 

Not only that but lots of poor people are inseperably hooked into the industry. People will be angry and demand change.

 

[baansgr]

Aint hurt me whatsoever, just sold my car for 475.000 thats 12k Sterling, only the bike and a bit of furniture to sell but couldnt have been a better result for me

[Traubert]

37 minutes ago, BestB said:

Your example of Huawei is ridiculous, it’s only been banned recently , wait a year or two and see which spot it would be at

 

Number 1. The P30 Pro is state of the art and cheap by comparison while Samsung's folding screens are a disaster. Apple are yesterdays news.

[MikeN]

Somebody the strong baht also hurts are the Thais working overseas and sending money back home to their families. Whether working in Korea, the Middle East or wherever they are getting less baht for the local currency they get paid in. And unlike us, they actually have a vote !

[ThomasThBKK]

51 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

Most also don't consider the 800k in the bank. Under fractional reserve banking this can be loaned out at 90% of value. I mention this bc we are just all tourists on temporary stay.

900% you mean i guess?

 

For every 800k deposited they can loan out 8 mio THB.

you need only 10% of a loan to be actually backed with reserves.

[Yinn]

54 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

Everyone saying westerns or expats in general leaving would not be a problem don't have the slightest understanding of economics....

 

Guess who's running/managing BMW, Harley, Hilton, Marriot, Toyota, Samsung etc here - ohhh right. 

They would just give these management positons to the vast amout of overqualified trustable thais - yeah sure.  No they pack up and go, killing hundreds of thousands of thai work places.

 

 

Japanese company are much, much important than the western company.

How many Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan, Honda etc compare with BMW and Harley.

 

Marriott is one hotel company, There are much, much more Thai owner the hotel.

 

All the big factory area is about 80-90% Japanese company.

 

i went to party in Patong last night. More Indian, Arab and Chinese than farang. 

 

Farang is welcome, everyone is welcome same. Chinese spend more for eating than farang (lot of seafood), farang spend more for drink alcohol. 

[ThomasThBKK]

2 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Japanese company are much, much important than the western company.

How many Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan, Honda etc compare with BMW and Harley.

 

Marriott is one hotel company, There are much, much more Thai owner the hotel.

 

All the big factory area is about 80-90% Japanese company.

 

i went to party in Patong last night. More Indian, Arab and Chinese than farang. 

 

Farang is welcome, everyone is welcome same. Chinese spend more for eating than farang (lot of seafood), farang spend more for drink alcohol. 

 

Learn to read.

 

You are so full of yourself all the time...

 

[BestB]

23 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Number 1. The P30 Pro is state of the art and cheap by comparison while Samsung's folding screens are a disaster. Apple are yesterdays news.

In your opinion , not actual facts but carry on

[Don Mega]

12 minutes ago, Yinn said:

 

All the big factory area is about 80-90% Japanese company.

 

Which one ?

[Pilotman]

16 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Japanese company are much, much important than the western company.

How many Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan, Honda etc compare with BMW and Harley.

 

Marriott is one hotel company, There are much, much more Thai owner the hotel.

 

All the big factory area is about 80-90% Japanese company.

 

i went to party in Patong last night. More Indian, Arab and Chinese than farang. 

 

Farang is welcome, everyone is welcome same. Chinese spend more for eating than farang (lot of seafood), farang spend more for drink alcohol. 

Marriot hotel group is owned by middle eastern investors. The family only hold 25% of the tradeable shares. 

Edited August 18, 2019 by Pilotman

[ThomasThBKK]

For everyone whos open minded, this is the reality: https://en.portal.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

 

Quote

Foreign direct investment is an important element of Thailand's economic development, and the country is one of the major FDI destinations in its region. According to the UNCTAD World Investment Report 2018, in 2017, after several consecutive years of decline, FDI flows have largely recovered. They were multiplied by 3.7 between 2016 and 2017 and reach USD 7.6 billion. This recovery is due to increased investment by European Union countries and strong inflows from ASEAN countries and Japan. Through the Investment Promotion Act, offering more incentives to invest in advanced technologies, innovative activities and research and development, and the Eastern Enonomic Corridor (EEC) Act, which offers benefits to investors in this zone (tax subsidies, right to land ownership, issuing of visas), FDI flows should show satisfactory results in 2018. The stock of FDI increases by 15% in 2017 and reaches USD 219 billion dollars, or 50.7% of the country's GDP.

Japan and Singapore are by far the largest investors in the country and account for more than half of FDI inflows. Taiwan, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Mauritius and the United Kingdom are also among the major investors. Manufacturing and financial and insurance activities attract nearly 70% of all FDI inflows. Investments in real estate, commerce and information and communication are important.

 

 

 

• Japan 37.9
• Singapore 22.1
• Taiwan 8.8
• Netherlands 7.4
• Germany 4.2
• Switzerland 3.9
• Mauritius 3.9
• United Kingdom 3.5

 

This is the real investment into real manufacturing, finance, RE, Trade and IT.

 

Mauritius is so big as it's the finance hub of Africa, u can call it Singapore of africa if you want. Much of the money there is European as it was a french and british colony.

[LomSak27]

 

This year I do think we are heading for a recession. Western tourist will continue to decrease, as much from being unofficially/officially discouraged as from the strong baht. Going to take some years of work to get that market back. The big if What will the Chinese vacation like in a recession? In a recession I would be surprised if their numbers do not dip. Last year the Chinese just took off in September. With a recession who’s to say what their numbers will be like, certainly not TAT.  
 

Does the strong baht factor in any of that??? Maybe less than people yack about.

[tabarin]

Western investment leaving would be death penalty for Thailand, western tourists / westerners not so much for Thailand as a country, the elite and middle class.
But I am sure it would hurt many of the lower income people, SME focused on tourism (let's say a good couple of million people) / many are affected already. 

Many people say it is just 13% but that does not include indirect transfers (payments for girls / families etc). 
Let's say we could make it 15-20% in total and it is actually a significant loss for any economy (if that worst case scenario plays out).

Edited August 18, 2019 by tabarin

[yuiop]

def NO!

[Youlike]

3 hours ago, nomad2019 said:

Chinese tourists do the boat trips,the island tours etc but I've never really seen any I'm restaurants or bars

That's because the large hotel/restaurant owners know that it's best to split the chinese from the westerners. If possible they will book them in a special part or building of the hotel and give them food they like...you won't even see them.

 

I also have got upgrades in hotels so they could book me to a different wing of the hotel, far away from the chinese...i didnt even ask for it and got a better room.

 

That's all perfect!

[Yinn]

1 hour ago, Pilotman said:

Marriot hotel group is owned by middle eastern investors. The family only hold 25% of the tradeable shares. 

I didn’t check the owner. The post I answer said it, so I believed it.

[Yinn]

1 hour ago, Don Mega said:

Which one ?

Amata city x 2

[Nyezhov]

1 hour ago, Yinn said:

 

 

Farang is welcome, everyone is welcome same. Chinese spend more for eating than farang (lot of seafood), farang spend more for drink alcohol. 

For a while this year, I had a yen for Western food and Eatigo gave me cheap Hotel Buffets. I rarely saw a westerner in the buffets....always Chinese.

 

Go to Jumbo in Icon Siam and watch them go nuts. Or check out the Night Maket up in Huay Kwang and watch the Chinese folks pound down those buckets of seafood..... 

 

The high end food and shopping here in Thailand are aimed at Chinese tourists. Why? Because the food and the shopping are things they cant get at home. I, as an American, dont need to buy Tom Ford cologne at Icon Siam  for 8,000B when I can get it $20 cheaper at home...but some Chinese dude cant get it at all. 

 

My brat comes in from China to go shopping and eat high end food.

 

Western folks dont need to go to fancy restaurants  and shop for luxury goods since we have it all anyway, there are no bargains for us unless we go native.

 

Not the same for a Chinese girl in Sephora though....

 

 

[Hans007]

Thailand has to change its course...It needs to offer more upscale quality tourism attractions. Indeed it would be better if Pattaya closed all together...then again..were would all horny lonely westerners (men) go?? Probably Vietnam,PHP or Indonesia...anyway...or maybe Ukraine...as that is getting the Thailand of Europe pretty soon.

 

Other thing is indeed strong bath....i dont see thai government lowering intrest more then this...so propably Bath will stay strong as Euro/Pound and Dollar stay weak. Only Europeans that actualy could afford a good holiday in Thailand would be the Swiss and the Norwegians..!! But they have much to pick from...will they choose Thailand???? Hmmmmm...

 

Hua Hin is empty now...my GF says...hardly any tourists except for a few chinese and longterm Norwegians. Many bars/restos empty. Many rooms empty...need lower prives...I found good rooms as low as 300 Bath!!! NO JOKE. They are desperate.

 

I only will spend 3 days in Thailand..after that we travel on to Vietnam. I hear Vung Tau is packed with Russians. Nice..great people. Always good for a laugh..and fun. Nicve ladies too...always open for a chat and a drink...Never had problems with them. Cant wait to step on those old soviet Hydrofoils that run between Saigon (HCMC) and Vung Tau...:-)

 

Well have fun in Thailand..!! The Euro will recover...maybe in 3-5 years from now...hahahahahahah or not...!

 

TC all

 

Hans

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, BestB said:

In your opinion , not actual facts but carry on

Actually it's the industry's opinion simply parroted by me, but bearing in mind your total detachment from reality, we'll leave it there shall we?

 

If you want to argue, argue with GSMA.

[Youlike]

37 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

For a while this year, I had a yen for Western food and Eatigo gave me cheap Hotel Buffets. I rarely saw a westerner in the buffets....always Chinese.

 

Go to Jumbo in Icon Siam and watch them go nuts. Or check out the Night Maket up in Huay Kwang and watch the Chinese folks pound down those buckets of seafood..... 

 

The high end food and shopping here in Thailand are aimed at Chinese tourists. Why? Because the food and the shopping are things they cant get at home. I, as an American, dont need to buy Tom Ford cologne at Icon Siam  for 8,000B when I can get it $20 cheaper at home...but some Chinese dude cant get it at all. 

 

My brat comes in from China to go shopping and eat high end food.

 

Western folks dont need to go to fancy restaurants  and shop for luxury goods since we have it all anyway, there are no bargains for us unless we go native.

 

Not the same for a Chinese girl in Sephora though....

 

 

Westerners (from Europe at least) don't need the shoppingmalls at all because Europe is sooo much better for shopping..

 

I don't understand ANY person who prefers Thailand above Europe unless they love to be in a chaotic filthy mess.  

Europe is soo far ahead of Thailand and even cheaper these days....why would anybody go Thai at all?