webfact Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 Frothing trade war could shrink Thai exports 3 per cent, academic warns By Wichit Chaitron The Nation Anusorn Tamajai Thai exports could contract by more than 3 per cent overall this year now that US President Donald Trump has vowed to boost tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods by a further 5 per cent, a Rangsit University academic has warned. Anusorn Tamajai, director of the school’s Economic and Business Research Centre for Reform, noted Trump’s threat on Friday to raise tariffs up to 30 per cent by September 1 on Chinese goods currently being taxed at 25 per cent. The president’s pledge came in prompt retaliation for Beijing’s decision to increase tariffs between 5 and 10 per cent on $75 billion worth American imports, covering 5,078 items. Washington will also increase tariffs on several other items from 10 to 15 per cent, Trump said. Anusorn believes the latest escalation in the US-China trade war could tip the global economy into a recession due to the damage caused to trade and investment. Thai exports would be hit hard if there were a sharp slowdown in global trade, he said, despite showing signs of improved strength last month. “Thailand’s exports could fall more than 3 per cent since exports to China would be affected significantly,” he warned. Excluding gold and oil products, Thai exports in dollar terms grew by 1.6 per cent in July, while exports to the US rose 9.8 per cent. Exports to the US between January and July rose sharply by 16.3 per cent. Imports of capital goods increased 11.9 per cent and machinery by 23.9 per cent, indicating an increase in private investment. The escalating trade dispute, however, would dampen the investment outlook, Anusorn said. Some companies have relocated plants to Thailand in order to avoid high tariff rates, Anusorn noted, but it’s chiefly been only low- or medium-level tech firms like Sharp, Besser, Western Digital and Delta Electronics moving here from China. Higher-tech firms have tended to prefer Vietnam and Malaysia, he said. He estimates the widening trade war will cut Chinese growth by 1 percentage point and that of the US by half a percentage point. The result could be investors around the world delaying their plans, hampering the global economy for 3-5 years, he warned. Anusorn expects Thai tourism to fall short of projections by 200,000-300,000 visitor arrivals this year, while Chinese postpone planned purchases of condo units here, creating a domino effect afflicting the overall property sector. Prolonged trade tensions between the US and China, the US and Europe or China and Europe involving technology could adversely affect development in that field due to rising costs and narrowed trade. The National Economic and Social Development Council, a state think-tank, previously forecast that Thai exports would contract by 1.2 per cent this year, while the economy would expand only between 2.7 and 3.2 per cent. The Thai economy has been largely driven by exports, so any harsh impacts would translate into slower growth, Anusorn said. The GDP in the second quarter grew only 2.3 per cent, its slowest rate in 19 quarters. To mitigate the harm, he recommended that the government focus on productive investment and increase transparency regarding its investments, such as by making its procurement information public, thus placing a curb on corruption. Meanwhile, Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank, said Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, had indicated that rate cuts could “not always” compensate for loss of confidence stemming from Trump’s trade war. “While monetary policy is a powerful tool to support consumer spending, business investment and public confidence, it cannot provide a settled rulebook for international trade,” the New York Times quoted Powell as saying on Friday . Powell’s remarks suggested that the Fed, which cut interest rates in July for the first time in more than a decade, remained willing to do so again to keep the economy growing, the New York Times said. Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30375335 -- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-08-27 Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BuckBee Posted August 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 26, 2019 reality is they already down way over 3% when trade war goes full swing after xmas things really start spicing up, thai's like a bit of spice so see how they handle this lol . vietnam and cambo doing well but good old thailand under the rule of tinpot unclebuck are paddling up a dry river helped along by manipulating chinese and junta elitism ... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post smedly Posted August 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 26, 2019 The article is basically saying that the rampant baht is causing foreign manufacturing to rethink where they are putting their factories - it isn't Thailand 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Curt1591 Posted August 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 26, 2019 Thai baht is what is affecting Thai exports. But, the "trade war" does make it cheaper for other countries to purchase Chinese goods. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ukrules Posted August 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 26, 2019 (edited) Baht rate will cut exports by a massive amount but it will take time. Once it happens it will also take a considerable amount of time to reverse should the Baht return to earth. We're talking years. Damage already done = years of export declines to come. It's going to be interesting to watch this place collapse in on itself over the next decade. On the subject of collapse : I don't care at all. They caused this and will reap what they've sowed. Edited August 26, 2019 by ukrules 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadbury Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 The economic Grim Reaper is at the door. Just wait until the drought and high baht induced drop in rice exports kicks in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
observer90210 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 (edited) 3 % drop ? maybe...but with or without Trump, the overrated Thai Bhat will shrink exports by 40,44 % !!!! Edited August 26, 2019 by observer90210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mok199 Posted August 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 26, 2019 (edited) Yet the bhat remains ridiculously high..why is this? Edited August 26, 2019 by mok199 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post JAG Posted August 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 26, 2019 38 minutes ago, ukrules said: It's going to be interesting to watch this place collapse in on itself over the next decade. On the subject of collapse : I don't care at all. They caused this and will reap what they've sowed. I think perhaps we should care. This is a country of nigh on 70 million people. For the last few years it has been ruled at the behest of, and for the benefit of, perhaps 70 thousand of them - if that many. That 70 thousand simply don't care, their wealth, sufficient for several generations, is largely invested (stached) outside the country, and they reckon themselves unaffected by any misery and misfortune such a collapse might bring. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post AverageBloke Posted August 27, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 27, 2019 (edited) I'm in two minds, I don't want to see the Thai people suffer but I want to see this government brought to it's knees. Edited August 27, 2019 by AverageBloke spelling 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuckamuck Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, AverageBloke said: I'm in two minds, I don't wan to see the Thai people suffer but I want to see this government bought to it's knees. And the exchange rate improve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curt1591 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 1 hour ago, mok199 said: Yet the bhat remains ridiculously high..why is this? My guess is that someone, high up, wants to import a lot of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post justin case Posted August 27, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 27, 2019 thailand is just a bad investment for non-thais 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worgeordie Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 What is a "Frothing" trade war,a pint of beer yes,but .... regards Worgeordie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCC1701A Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 War!?! Call out the Thai military! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riclag Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 I must admit,the strength in the baht, is my fault! I'm building a house here. When ever I make a move financially it goes against my favor! Just be patient, I'm transferring $150K for the final payment soon and the baht will return to the early 2018 levels ! ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticky Wicket Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Wait til all those contracts expire that tie other countries into Thai products for a set period of time. Then you will see the <deleted> fall out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAG Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, worgeordie said: What is a "Frothing" trade war,a pint of beer yes,but .... regards Worgeordie I don't think it is a conventional economic phrase, but given the demeanour of those who seem to be making the running on the US side of the exchanges it may be appropriate. The pontificating and suggestions in the OP are likely to be as much use and relevance as attempting to pee up Niagra Falls. Edited August 27, 2019 by JAG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post thaiguzzi Posted August 27, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 27, 2019 I remember when US-China trade wars were first mooted, and the Thai govt's response was laugh, smirk, fob off, and remark that none of it would affect Thailand. Yeah, right....... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 8 hours ago, webfact said: More factual evidence of the Thai Illuminati here - join those spots on his face together and you get another upside down triangle ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natway09 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 There are already many Chinese manufacturers looking at moving their bases to Thailand to avoid the tariffs. You all should know that Thailand always seems to fall on it's feet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thechook Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 The over inflated baht is making thai products expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatOngo Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 54 minutes ago, Thechook said: The over inflated baht is making thai products expensive. The upside is I can buy AUD for 20.65. ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgw Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 59 minutes ago, Thechook said: The over inflated baht is making thai products expensive. really? what does inflate it, pray tell ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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