The strong thaibath is a big headache for Thailand according Bloomberg. If the us dollar drop under 30 bath i will get alot worse for Thailand. 

10 hours ago, ThePioneer said:

I assume you don't get your pension sent from overseas, because you sure wouldn't have so much joy

how long have you been living in thailand watching this disaster unfold ? 

3 hours ago, Colabamumbai said:

What goes up must come down. 

And what runs out of money in the meantime must do one????

15 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

I'm no expert but I was told they've been propping the baht up since the coup. As far as I know, the only way they can do that is with gold and foreign reserves - 

You really think currencies rise and fall because governments are buying and selling gold?  So the sinking GBP could be rescued if Bojo asked the Queen to flog some of her stash?

 

Brace yourself but have you heard that Harry Truman is no longer president of the US and the 24/7 worldwide currency markets respond to a host of influences geopolitical, economic, real or rumored. A small country would struggle to prop up or push down its currency rate even briefly and even comparatively wealthy economies like China, the US or the EU rarely get their way trying to move their currencies ... and they certainly don't spend much time buying or selling gold in an attempt to move currency markets.

 

And that aside, for what reason would Thailand want an overly strong baht. It makes exports expensive, makes investment less attractive to foreign businesses, discourages tourism ...

A part of me hopes Bank of Thailand and their hot money games brings the USD down to parity with the Baht.  That way, I can return to the USA as a millionaire...

6 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

A part of me hopes Bank of Thailand and their hot money games brings the USD down to parity with the Baht.  That way, I can return to the USA as a millionaire...

You do realize that currency rates involve two currencies at a time. If the Thai baht rose to parity with the dollar that would also mean the US dollar had sunk to parity with the baht. Your millions of dollars would probably buy you a Starbucks coffee and a small cave to hide in to escape the civil unrest in the US as their economy collapsed.

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Let me weigh in on this, at the risk of another lambasting from the T.V. Baht apologists.  And let me further state this is purely conjecture with some supporting facts.

If you look at the chart patterns of today’s currencies vs Baht—you will notice similar chart patterns with all western currencies nosediving,  And curiously, the Chinese Yuan does a complete reverse—same chart pattern, but skyrocketing up.

Why? I believe TAT wants a million MORE Chinese tourists (or more).  To do this, they have to bring the Chinese Yuan up vs. the Baht.  For BoT to raise the Yuan—they have to lower the USD.  And when USD sinks, related western currencies follow it down.

I once traded currencies (now mainly stocks).  When you see chart pattern like these—it’s a red flag.

BoT has controls on hot money inflows.  They can step on the brakes—or hit the gas...

OK T.V. Baht apologists—have at me...

 

Do you really believe TAT and BoT conspire to bring the Yuan up and $US dollar down. 

OK chart patterns do signify buy/sell so yes alarms or red flags seeing your a sailor.

I saw three black crows the other day the BoT must have been closed.

I used to trade currency’s too.

Edited September 14, 20196 yr by Brer
Grammar

Don't exchange money at a bank.  They always give you a low rate.  And specially never accept the exchange rate they offer you at an ATM.

 

16 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

That's the story that's put about - talk to business owners. Both Thai and foreign report things are not good and getting worse.

 

I'm no expert but I was told they've been propping the baht up since the coup. As far as I know, the only way they can do that is with gold and foreign reserves - surely what they have left aint massive. Reports are one thing, the truth may differ.

I agree. I have a business that operates regionally - thank goodness - and Thailand is way down on previous years. All of our friendly competitors, vendors, and service providers say the same. When business travel and tourism go down almost everything else follows suit. With everything going down - including employment and salaries - crime goes up; all kinds of crime. FDI goes down too due to lack of confidence. I definitely see parallels with the 1997/98 Baht collapse and ensuing currency crisis, and the 2009/10 crash. 

 

I remain optimistic and believe that people with influence can see what is happening and still have time to do the right thing - but soon it will be too late and there is a danger that the whole house of cards will come tumbling down - again.

Many manufacturing firms on the Eastern Seaboard offering voluntary redundancies or a compulsory 30% reduction in salaries from September. This is caused by a downturn in certain exports due to the high baht, this coupled with a drop in tourism should result in the baht dropping in value. Is their some artificial boost to the current value?

12 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

...

One Baht to soon be on parity with one ounce of gold.

–or just one baht of gold, i.e. 0.47295236 troy ounce, that's still Okay, let's buy some baths instead of bitcoins...????

19 hours ago, madmen said:

Economy is in decent shape with massive foreign reserves, why should it drop? 

 

 

The government may wish to take action to ease the baht because its a drag on the economy, harming tourist arrivals and exports. As several academics have suggested, the high baht and high household debt are the direct result of the Bank of Thailand policies over the last 10 years. Having caused the problem, it is up to the Bank to manage the baht and help the economy.

 

Others have suggested simply printing more baht and throwing the money into infrastructure projects and other public / economic good projects.

 

Eventually foreign investment inflows will drop and the baht will drop. Thai investors can then start repatriating their overseas assets and buying up big in Thailand. This will create a mini boom and everyone will win.

2 hours ago, Just1Voice said:

I've been saying for the past 5 years or so that the baht is being propped up to benefit the coupe makers, and eventually there is going to be a major crash.  I'm just waiting...biding my time. 

a lot of us are waiting, the problem is for how long can we keep waiting

While many tourists are still coming to Thailand with a minimum of 20,000 Baht or equivalent money and the Dollar losing it value the exchange ratewill stay high. Well done Thailand.

13 hours ago, ThePioneer said:

I assume you don't get your pension sent from overseas, because you sure wouldn't have so much joy

from 10 years a go i get about 10000tb less on my retailement some from america some from europe

18 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

That's the story that's put about - talk to business owners. Both Thai and foreign report things are not good and getting worse.

 

I'm no expert but I was told they've been propping the baht up since the coup. As far as I know, the only way they can do that is with gold and foreign reserves - surely what they have left aint massive. Reports are one thing, the truth may differ.

You are forgetting the new rule for visas, 400,000 for Marriage visa and 800,000 for Retirement visa Foreign Currency from a Bank sent to Thailand Bank. That sounds like a lot of Foreign Reserves.

 

2 hours ago, stigar said:

The strong thaibath is a big headache for Thailand according Bloomberg. If the us dollar drop under 30 bath i will get alot worse for Thailand. 

I don't think so, Tourism is keeping Thailand economically good and your one of them. There's more money in their foreign currency reserve then they know what to do with it. 

Edited September 14, 20196 yr by Percy P

So glad we have the option of spending the majority of time elsewhere at the moment!  

 

Feel sorry for those on a pension alone with no top up facilities ????

2 hours ago, Brer said:

Do you really believe TAT and BoT conspire to bring the Yuan up and $US dollar down. 

OK chart patterns do signify buy/sell so yes alarms or red flags seeing your a sailor.

I saw three black crows the other day the BoT must have been closed.

I used to trade currency’s too.

Not exactly, Brer.  BoT takes orders from the regime.  If in fact, the plan is to get millions MORE Chinese tourists into Thailand—then this currency bashing starts from the top.  BoT simply takes orders...

Let me add—I’m hope I’m wrong about this.  And Baht apologists like you help me and others see a balanced point of view.  Don’t shoot the messenger.

21 hours ago, rodknock said:

when and if this will ever change

seems to change near daily - - get used to not knowing... 

14 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Launder and repeat. It would not surprise me if we see a repeat of 1997. Once the powers that be have drained the Gov't coffers for mega projects and taken their 'commission', we may see a Chavalit style transfer of funds to US$ / £. Only then will the Baht have the rug pulled out from under it and be seen in free fall. Once it hits bottom they will transfer all their ill gotten gains back into Baht again.

I'm a complete eco-ninny-idiot ... but why not the junta (excuse me govt????) simply devalue the baht?

 

1 hour ago, cougar52 said:

You are forgetting the new rule for visas, 400,000 for Marriage visa and 800,000 for Retirement visa Foreign Currency from a Bank sent to Thailand Bank. That sounds like a lot of Foreign Reserves.

 

I can't believe that some people still believe this makes much more than a ha'pence of difference to the Thai economy........

4 hours ago, Brer said:

Do you really believe TAT and BoT conspire to bring the Yuan up and $US dollar down. 

OK chart patterns do signify buy/sell so yes alarms or red flags seeing your a sailor.

I saw three black crows the other day the BoT must have been closed.

I used to trade currency’s too.

The Chinese Communist Party controls the Yuan and could care less about Thailand. Their mision is to keep the Yuan at a rate acceptible to the USA as they need to move it up and down at any particular time dependent on what the US does regarding Tariffs, Interest rate and bond purchases.

 

Thailand does not have enough money to affect the Yuan/

 

IMO Thailand is playing a dangerous game- allowing hot money in without any real capital controls and using it to keep it's currency high to avoid being branded a currency manipulator by the US. In addition- the strong Baht reduces the cost of all those overseas purchases.

 

If Boris can get the UK out of the EU with a negotiated settlemnt I expect both the Pound and Euro to move up a little but a hard exit will cause big problems.

 

Trump is also finding the Chinese unwilling to bend on the trade problem so I expect he will get a 'small deal' as we move closer to 2020 ans an election.  The Fed will lower interest rates and the dollar will also move up a little.  Thailand's economy will continue it's downward spiral. 

2 hours ago, cougar52 said:

You are forgetting the new rule for visas, 400,000 for Marriage visa and 800,000 for Retirement visa Foreign Currency from a Bank sent to Thailand Bank. That sounds like a lot of Foreign Reserves.

 

You are talking about peanuts and not too many either.  Expats monies in the bank is a tiny tiny drop in a very large ocean!

People still believe that without the western expats here, the country would suffer badly.  If all the expats left tomorrow with their savings, it wouldn't even be noticed.

the law on gravity iswhat goes up must come down
thailand in no way can justify such a strong currency

remember soros and sterling

the baht will take one hell of a tumble
and all you guys with their 800k in the bank
good luck with that

but all you experts on this forum ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Edited September 14, 20196 yr by andy72
had not finished

52 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

The Chinese Communist Party controls the Yuan and could care less about Thailand. Their mision is to keep the Yuan at a rate acceptible to the USA as they need to move it up and down at any particular time dependent on what the US does regarding Tariffs, Interest rate and bond purchases.

 

Thailand does not have enough money to affect the Yuan/

 

IMO Thailand is playing a dangerous game- allowing hot money in without any real capital controls and using it to keep it's currency high to avoid being branded a currency manipulator by the US. In addition- the strong Baht reduces the cost of all those overseas purchases.

 

If Boris can get the UK out of the EU with a negotiated settlemnt I expect both the Pound and Euro to move up a little but a hard exit will cause big problems.

 

Trump is also finding the Chinese unwilling to bend on the trade problem so I expect he will get a 'small deal' as we move closer to 2020 ans an election.  The Fed will lower interest rates and the dollar will also move up a little.  Thailand's economy will continue it's downward spiral. 

Thanks Thaidream.  You nailed it.  Thailand eats from the hand of China.

did i say experts yes all the ones who like to resolve thailand and who know better than the the thais
 

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Not exactly, Brer.  BoT takes orders from the regime.  If in fact, the plan is to get millions MORE Chinese tourists into Thailand—then this currency bashing starts from the top.  BoT simply takes orders...

Let me add—I’m hope I’m wrong about this.  And Baht apologists like you help me and others see a balanced point of view.  Don’t shoot the messenger.

No denying the BoT is controlled by the regime when the appointment comes from the Finance minister who is a General P appointment. The new Finance minister though recently stated that there would be no interference into the banks monetary policy which in Thailand means do as I say, read that any way you want.

The capital inflows are probably getting to a stage where they have to take some action, what they come up with might give us some relieve.

1 hour ago, Thaidream said:

Trump is also finding the Chinese unwilling to bend on the trade problem so I expect he will get a 'small deal' as we move closer to 2020 ans an election

The Chinese sense of time is different. The Chinese premier is elected for life and so can play a waiting game, whilst Trump will only be in for another four years, that is if he gets re-elected.