The Saudi oil incident seems to have given the USD a nice jolt.

 

Given the Fed are due to advise this week on rates and it's expected there will be a cut, where do we see USD heading this week and over the next few months.

 

Interested to hear comments from our resident experts.

 

 

down ….   

On 9/18/2019 at 6:39 AM, steven100 said:

down ….   

You are ever the optimist.

On September 18, 2019 at 5:56 AM, stament said:

 

Given the Fed are due to advise this week on rates and it's expected there will be a cut, where do we see USD heading this week and over the next few months

Too many unpredictable exogenous factors to consider ... China/US, US/Saudi/Iran, Brexit, recession possible, etc

 

There's an article on CNBC about the Fed losing control over rates. Of course Trump wants lower rates and lower dollar, but what he wants and what he gets may differ.

 

That said, the dollar is probably bottoming. May be stuck in a tight range for awhile. In the longer term, against the baht it has been historically cyclical, so probably will buy more baht eventually , but when eventually happens is impossible to say.

 

Fed loses control of its own interest rate as it cut rates — ‘This just doesn’t look good’

PUBLISHED WED, SEP 18 2019  11:17 AM EDTUPDATED 5 HOURS AGOLOSESLOSESHTTPS://WWW.CNBC.COM/2019/09/18/FED-LOSES-CONTROL-OF-ITS-OWN-INTEREST-RATE-ON-DAY-OF-BIG-DECISION-THIS-JUST-DOESNT-LOOK-GOOD.HTML

Edited September 19, 20196 yr by Suradit69

The Fed is an independent agency.  It should not be influenced by the media’s hype for lower rates, nor a president’s tweets.  We need to save our bullets...

54 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

The Fed is an independent agency.  It should not be influenced by the media’s hype for lower rates, nor a president’s tweets.  We need to save our bullets...

You are correct, of course.  But the orange buffoon in the White House doesn't care.  He just wants to juice the economy in the short-term because he thinks it will help him get reelected.   

To me the USD/THB exchange rate in the next few weeks or months is just short term fluctuation. I am long on the USD and hopeful we will see Thai baht at 35-38 within the next 5-8 years.

 

The demographics are against Thailand, an aging and static population where the tourist gravy train is slowing down.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-thailand-baby-bust

About a whopping 10 Satang rise towards the Baht.

You can now do a new budget planning

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1W

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

To me the USD/THB exchange rate in the next few weeks or months is just short term fluctuation. I am long on the USD and hopeful we will see Thai baht at 35-38 within the next 5-8 years.

 

The demographics are against Thailand, an aging and static population where the tourist gravy train is slowing down.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-thailand-baby-bust

Numerous experts predict the dollar will strengthen over the next decade. And the Baht has to give ground at some point. So your prediction seems plausible.

One could, perhaps, question the degree of the Fed's so-called independence; it is in the hands of private ownership, after all. Although subject to Congressional oversight, it is possible that its decisions are manipulated by vested interests. Isn't the answer, always, to follow the money?

1 hour ago, allanos said:

One could, perhaps, question the degree of the Fed's so-called independence; it is in the hands of private ownership, after all. Although subject to Congressional oversight, it is possible that its decisions are manipulated by vested interests. Isn't the answer, always, to follow the money?

Well the Fed may possibly be swayed by vested interests , whereas Trump certainly is , not quite the same.

3 hours ago, timendres said:

Numerous experts predict the dollar will strengthen over the next decade. And the Baht has to give ground at some point. So your prediction seems plausible.

At the beginning of 2019 the majority of the banks and financial predictions i saw expected the dollar to fall because interest rates in the US would have to fall. That has not happened because everybody else has been easing / reducing interest rates. Predictions by experts are often wrong. Currencies are very hard to predict,

A majority of forecasts I see are short term up to a year and against specific currencies pairs.

eg JPY/USD is often very different prediction from EUR/USD.

GBP forecast to rise vs USD in next few months, if brexit is orderly! But the opposite could happen if not.

 

In general the charts suggest USD index should strengthen short term maybe a couple of percent. But do not expect much more. On a longer term view the chart suggest USD index is peaking and could go down several percent (and if TRUMP gets his way that would happen) but that may take several months.

 

I assume that you are looking at THB rates and suggest that you should keep focused on the USD/THB situation. 

It is hard to understand why the THB has been so strong the last few years. The trend still looks like the THB may strengthen in the short term. Charts suggest there could be a major move soon but it could be up or down. Up goes to 33 within a few months, down would go to 27. There can always be something to trigger such moves.

However, over the last 12 years the USD/THB has been in a range of about 30 to 36. Therefore it is most plausible to expect that the THB will go back to 36 at some point perhaps within the next five years.