Last time the economy corrected

[Hal65]

Was it the 97 financial crisis or do you guys recall a more recent event? I imagine 2008 had effects here too? (I've been here since 2014)

 

Strong baht, low employment etc make me feel like Thailand has been on a good run for a while. I don't know if you'd call it a bull market as I'm not sure Thailand has their own stock market. But it makes me wonder if there are any economic indicators that are pointing to a lukewarm or overheating pictures in the near term.

[NCC1701A]

15 minutes ago, Hal65 said:

Was it the 97 financial crisis

you will never see a repeat of the 97 crisis. One of the reasons Thailand is doing so well is they took the advice of the world bank and corrected the problems that lead to that event.

 

and remember it was a Farang who crashed the Thai currency, the monster George Soros.

the Thais will never let that happen again.

 

[neeray]

8 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

you will never see a repeat of the 97 crisis. One of the reasons Thailand is doing so well is they took the advice of the world bank and corrected the problems that lead to that event.

 

and remember it was a Farang who crashed the Thai currency, the monster George Soros.

the Thais will never let that happen again.

 

Could you expand please on how George Soros crashed the Thai currency? Serious question. Thanks

[timendres]

8 minutes ago, neeray said:

Could you expand please on how George Soros crashed the Thai currency? Serious question. Thanks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

 

Search the page for Soros.

[kevin612]

It is not just Thailand, America has the same issue. Trump is working very hard to delay the crisis by lower the taxes for the rich. Once the Democrat takes over the White House, crisis will begin.

[Beggar]

I think it can destroy your day if you look every day at the rising Baht and hope that it will stop pretty soon. Try to ignore it. It is like the weather - you can't change it. Accept it and try to enjoy the day. Otherwise you will suffer from both - the rising Baht and your bad mood. 

[marin]

On 11/4/2019 at 12:01 PM, Hal65 said:

Strong baht, low employment etc make me feel like Thailand has been on a good run for a while. I don't know if you'd call it a bull market as I'm not sure Thailand has their own stock market

I would not comment if I were you. You know little to nothing about the Thai economy. Yes they have a stock market. Jeez...

[cortez]

economies don't correct...

[Suradit69]

On November 4, 2019 at 12:01 PM, Hal65 said:

I don't know if you'd call it a bull market as I'm not sure Thailand has their own stock market

Yes they have a stock market, real estate market, commodity market, currency market,  etc.

 

your reference to a correction sounds like you're conflating a economic crisis with an economic crisis. They can be connected or one might precipitate the other but they're not synonymous.

 

Debt is likely to be a major catalyst for a world wide crisis. Government debt, corporate debt, personal debt. The shifting, packaging, fraudulent debt ratings, and speculation in real estate were largely responsible for the 2007 - 2008 mess. It seems very little was learned from that experience, and added to that, now we have very low interest rates, including a proliferation of negative rates means too much cheap money could be fueling bubbles in equity markets. These rates will also make it difficult for central banks to rescue economies by throw cheap money about. Where can you go if rates are already negative.

 

All these issues are world-wide. Thailand may experience collateral damage, but the impact will be more direct and painful elsewhere.

[xbusman]

This time is different. I think thats how the story goes.....

 

[Brunolem]

On 11/4/2019 at 12:29 PM, neeray said:

Could you expand please on how George Soros crashed the Thai currency? Serious question. Thanks

He didn't... he surfed the wave like he did with the British pound earlier. 

 

People believe that because he made money out of it, he created it, but no one man can crash an economy and its currency... the conditions have to be there first, and then he may give the last push, or just wait for it... 

 

Having said that, the main weakness of the actual Thai economy is its over reliance on exports, including tourism. 

 

Thus, if there is a crash in Europe and/or in China, for example, even if Thailand has nothing to do with it, it will suffer the consequences... Thailand is only prosperous as long as the major economies also are... 

 

 

[Suradit69]

2 hours ago, Suradit69 said:

onflating a economic crisis with an economic crisis. They can be connected or one might precipitate the other but they're not synonymous.

sorry. That was meant to be "conflating an economic crisis with a financial crisis."

[Acharn]

On 11/4/2019 at 12:19 PM, NCC1701A said:

you will never see a repeat of the 97 crisis. One of the reasons Thailand is doing so well is they took the advice of the world bank and corrected the problems that lead to that event.

 

and remember it was a Farang who crashed the Thai currency, the monster George Soros.

the Thais will never let that happen again.

 

Well, no, it wasn't George Soros, but it was a couple of American hedge funds. The main point is they DID NOT take the advice of the IMF. As soon as they were able to they paid off the loan (people were contributing their jewelry, temples were taking up collections) they kicked the IMF out. That greatly added to Thaksin's popularity. They devoted themselves to building up export industries and created massive dollar reserves. After that they added large reserves in other currencies, but the important thing was to limit borrowing in dollars. Before 1997 the Bank of Thailand became very lax, but since then they have managed their currency very well. I'm hoping once this flood of hot money eases the BoT will get the baht back down to 32 to the dollar. Unfortunately, with President* Trump's disastrous trade policies that may be a very long time from now. Oh, the last advice they took from the World Bank was to develop tourism based on prostitution. Seriously.

[Farang99]

On 11/4/2019 at 12:38 PM, timendres said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

 

Search the page for Soros.

The baht reached its lowest point of 56 units to the U.S. dollar in January 1998. The Thai stock market dropped 75%. Finance One, the largest Thai finance company until then, collapsed.^[33] 

 

Happy days compared to its present value