How many Expats plans are on hold due to the property slow down?

[sunnyboy2018]

16 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Brexit will never happen.

Even if it does, I can register as a permanent resident until the end of 2020.

Does the 2020 limit  apply to all EU countries?

[Chazar]

6 hours ago, Destiny1990 said:

I don’t understand ur calculations Because  very seldom properties in Thailand go up in value after being sold to the first buyer

Lumpini  Ville On  Nut  Bkk  30m2 paid 1   million in 2005-6 new, now selling at 2   million or  maybe you can get one for 1.7 1.8-1.9m.

[Chazar]

8 hours ago, Caine said:

Wise up the properties in the U.K. are always worth real money

\Well back in 96 i  picked up a  repossessed 3  bed  semi  ( one of  many) for £42000 baht, refurbed and sold at £180000 4  years  later.......... so there are  no guarantees as the folk it was  repossessed from found out, as did  many others at that time overpaying for their dream.

[GarryP]

On 11/24/2019 at 9:17 AM, NCC1701A said:

...for what he thought it was worth.

 

there I fixed that sentence for you.

 

and it is hard to compete with 10,000 baht a month, three bed room, two bathroom house rentals in Hua Hin. 

Really? Are they decent? Not being sarcastic. Genuinely interested. 

[GarryP]

20 hours ago, oslooskar said:

I bought a very nice house here in Thailand last year and put it in my son's name because he has Thai citizenship. I then shipped all my worldly possessions here and no longer have to pay $220.00 U.S. a month in storage fees. However, although I was originally planning on buying another place here as well, I have since decided against it because of the continually changing immigration requirements.

My first house was bought in my son's name too. I have since 'given' it to him and moved out. Bought another house in the same soi, but this time in my own name. If I did not have the opportunity to buy in my own name, I doubt I would have bought another.  

[kingdong]

16 minutes ago, GarryP said:

My first house was bought in my son's name too. I have since 'given' it to him and moved out. Bought another house in the same soi, but this time in my own name. If I did not have the opportunity to buy in my own name, I doubt I would have bought another.  

Are you a thai citizen? Heard thats the only way you can own a property in the los

[kingdong]

42 minutes ago, Chazar said:

\Well back in 96 i  picked up a  repossessed 3  bed  semi  ( one of  many) for £42000 baht, refurbed and sold at £180000 4  years  later.......... so there are  no guarantees as the folk it was  repossessed from found out, as did  many others at that time overpaying for their dream.

If you,'re buying a property as an investment caveat emptor ,I bought mine to keep the rain off my head.

[GarryP]

14 minutes ago, kingdong said:

Are you a thai citizen? Heard thats the only way you can own a property in the los

Yes. When I bought the first house I had to put it in my son's name. But I have since gained citizenship so bought the second in my name. 

[Airalee]

2 hours ago, KSwr7UDHyn said:

 

And many of those dividend paying stocks could cut their dividend during a recession or other economic hard times.  Which would both drive down the price of the stock and lower your income. 

 

I'm not saying that you should buy real estate rather than own equities, I'm just pointing out that due to the sequence of returns issue, you can't just make some projection of earning 7% like it's interest on your savings account. 

 

It fluctuates and there will be up years and down years and some years you could be dipping into your principle which is going to kill your chances of hitting 7%. 

 

BTW, the other thing here is that the original proposal here was rent was 4% of the 6 million (i.e. 240,000 baht) which is EXACTLY your after tax amount on your blue chips paying a 5% dividend.  Even if you avoid rent hikes for 20 years, eventually you're going to pay more than you pay today and then the 240,000 and now you're dipping into principle again. 

Then perhaps this article should be about the plight of renters instead of listening to owner sob stories.

 

The rent for the original unit I leased is lower now than it was 8 years ago.  The condo I’m in now rents for less too.

 

 

 

 

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

Does the 2020 limit  apply to all EU countries?

That's the current Brexit 'exit with deal' offer with France.

 

[Tagaa]

On 11/24/2019 at 9:58 AM, GeorgeCross said:

 

LOL - do you know how long it actually takes to find then buy a piece of land, then clear it, find an architect, get planning permission, prep it (flatten/drainage), then actually build it, put the gardens in, design the interior, deal with all the BS at EVERY STEP, etc, etc..

I found the land my house is on in January, moved into a rental house close by, came up with a design that optimized the view (It's on a big lake with a mountain on the other side) as well as passive cooling features, found a builder, built the house and moved in mid August. 

 

So the answer to your question, I suppose, is not that long, really.

 

The world economy, coming worldwide recession & Thai immigration tightening up on their rules, are the reasons for the slow down. Immigration is responsible for many foreigners having to leave, so houses are for sale & rooms are for rent at a formerly unheard of inventory. It definitely is a buyers market.

 

If I were a buyer I would only make ridiculously low offers only on properties that I really liked in areas that I wanted to live in. Most people will say no, but you will find somebody desperate to sell & he will say yes.

 

i think it one of the Rothschilds that said that the only time to buy property is when blood runs in the streets. It doesn't have to be human blood...it can be economic blood as well.

[KSwr7UDHyn]

16 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Then perhaps this article should be about the plight of renters instead of listening to owner sob stories.

 

Why?  This forum is about real estate.  If you want to have a thread about renters, start one.  The OP seems to be, quite obviously, talking to and about owners. 

 

21 minutes ago, Airalee said:

The rent for the original unit I leased is lower now than it was 8 years ago.  The condo I’m in now rents for less too.

 

Good for you.  There are a lot of factors that might cause that to be true. 

 

But, I think a lot of farangs that rent or buy in Thailand, do so hoping to retire or live here for an extended period of time.  So, getting priced out of the rental market or having to downgrade their lifestyle because rents went up might be something that they want to hedge against. 

 

And hedges, in general, tend to cost you something.  So, people that want to hedge, hedge.  People that don't want to hedge, don't hedge.  That's up to you. 

 

BTW, if you purchased AT&T stock when it first spiked to around 22'ish on your chart, which seems to be around the late 1990's, it appears that that it would have taken you nearly two decades for the stock to simply get back to the price you paid for it.  And for a good part of that time, it was worth half of what you paid for it. 

 

And don't try to play both sides where you say, "Well, at least you got part of that back in dividends."  In theory, you're living off (or paying your rent from) the dividends so your brokerage balance isn't holding all of those dividend payments, it's simply 50% less than what you had before. 

 

It's not a bond where you're going to get your money back in 10 or 20 years.  AT&T could sink into the toilet and get bought out by some other telecom who slashes the dividend.  Maybe you buy in at 30 and drops to 10 over the next 5 years, but you're getting your dividend, so who cares, right?  

 

But then they get a buy-out offer at 15 a share from AZ&Z, which they are forced to accept, and post buy-out AZ&Z slashes the dividend to $0 in order to turn the company around. 

 

Now, you're down 50% on your investment and you have to try to put that into another dividend stock but with half of your original money so . . . bye, bye income. 

 

I don't want to debate a specific stock but it's apparent that it's unrealistic to think that you can just post a screen grab from some dividend stock and declare, "Ta-da!  Case closed." 

 

I'm happy for you if that's the path you've chosen and you're happy with your decision.  I actually don't think it's a bad move, but I don't think what you've presented works for everyone, and their are all sorts of risks that you haven't explored, so it's not some magic investment formula. 

 

Remember the old saying, "There's no such thing as a free lunch."  Dividend stocks have their own risks and trade offs. 

 

 

[madmen]

love the rental mindset here its hardcore and a big bonus for landlords. I never have problems renting mine out lower suk to wealthier single men usually in their 50"s but being 5 minute walk to ASOKE bts and smack in the middle of soi cowboy and Nana plaza their are always renters available , rarely stays empty long location location location

 

So I recommend EVERBODY rent rent rent

[Airalee]

11 minutes ago, KSwr7UDHyn said:

 

Why?  This forum is about real estate.  If you want to have a thread about renters, start one.  The OP seems to be, quite obviously, talking to and about owners. 

 

 

Good for you.  There are a lot of factors that might cause that to be true. 

 

But, I think a lot of farangs that rent or buy in Thailand, do so hoping to retire or live here for an extended period of time.  So, getting priced out of the rental market or having to downgrade their lifestyle because rents went up might be something that they want to hedge against. 

 

And hedges, in general, tend to cost you something.  So, people that want to hedge, hedge.  People that don't want to hedge, don't hedge.  That's up to you. 

 

BTW, if you purchased AT&T stock when it first spiked to around 22'ish on your chart, which seems to be around the late 1990's, it appears that that it would have taken you nearly two decades for the stock to simply get back to the price you paid for it.  And for a good part of that time, it was worth half of what you paid for it. 

 

And don't try to play both sides where you say, "Well, at least you got part of that back in dividends."  In theory, you're living off (or paying your rent from) the dividends so your brokerage balance isn't holding all of those dividend payments, it's simply 50% less than what you had before. 

 

It's not a bond where you're going to get your money back in 10 or 20 years.  AT&T could sink into the toilet and get bought out by some other telecom who slashes the dividend.  Maybe you buy in at 30 and drops to 10 over the next 5 years, but you're getting your dividend, so who cares, right?  

 

But then they get a buy-out offer at 15 a share from AZ&Z, which they are forced to accept, and post buy-out AZ&Z slashes the dividend to $0 in order to turn the company around. 

 

Now, you're down 50% on your investment and you have to try to put that into another dividend stock but with half of your original money so . . . bye, bye income. 

 

I don't want to debate a specific stock but it's apparent that it's unrealistic to think that you can just post a screen grab from some dividend stock and declare, "Ta-da!  Case closed." 

 

I'm happy for you if that's the path you've chosen and you're happy with your decision.  I actually don't think it's a bad move, but I don't think what you've presented works for everyone, and their are all sorts of risks that you haven't explored, so it's not some magic investment formula. 

 

Remember the old saying, "There's no such thing as a free lunch."  Dividend stocks have their own risks and trade offs. 

 

 

Everybody has their own tolerance for risk.  However, it’s a bit disingenuous of the owners on this board to go on and on and on about their paper profits on a condo purchased 15 years ago.  Currently, the P/E ratio for condos here is absolutely in favor of renting.  It’s always about the P/E ratio.

 

I also say this as someone who is currently in the market to buy.  I don’t consider hypotheticals (rising rents, rising purchase prices).  It’s purely an emotional decision.  From an investment standpoint, it would be completely irrational to buy.

[madmen]

15 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

As for your comment re BS.... estate agents and lawyers are known to be full of it!

I was making a sales enquiry why would they deny me a sale? Ive been a sales trainer for 30 years and You dont get refused million dollar condo sales ! 

 

Its fact red light areas around the world all end up being bought out and developed as populations grow. You really suggesting that 2 five star hotels and average 2.5 million dollar per unt Q house all 3 a 2 minjute walk to Nana BTS (Q house less than a minute)all got it wrong? Or should we beleive you a 70"s cartoon character That doesnt live here

 

my guess is your in a village somewhere so your hardly qualified to discuss bangkok .  So where do you live you dodged that question before?

Edited November 25, 2019 by madmen

[ThomasThBKK]

4 hours ago, kenk24 said:

took us 3 months... but you are the expert..  had a good builder. he did everything needed. lol indeed. 

 

We were talking about real houses, there's no way to build a western style house that is a proper investment in 3 months.

It takes 1-2 years in Spain, in germany, in the US and it takes the same amount of time in Phuket and Bangkok. 

Just randomly putting a house in thai standards somewhere in a village is not an investment and not what we are talking about.

 

Just for reference, these are real proper houses, that people are willing to spill money out for in thailand: http://www.thaweemongkol.co.th/projects/

 

 

 

You could bring that builder to europe and get instant rich, people would line 2 kilometeres for a builder that can build a single family house in London in 3 months.

 

 

 

[ToS2014]

I tend to keep a majority of my funds in assets that I can manage to some degree.  A condo or house in Thailand, under a 'company name' or your 'spouse' name simply does not fall into the category of "....assets that i can manage to some degree".

[Nobody55]

Maybe it's about luxury property.
I am looking for a small simple petfriendly house near the city at cheap price and I can not find anything

[KSwr7UDHyn]

3 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Everybody has their own tolerance for risk.  However, it’s a bit disingenuous of the owners on this board to go on and on and on about their paper profits on a condo purchased 15 years ago.  Currently, the P/E ratio for condos here is absolutely in favor of renting.  It’s always about the P/E ratio.

 

I also say this as someone who is currently in the market to buy.  I don’t consider hypotheticals (rising rents, rising purchase prices).  It’s purely an emotional decision.  From an investment standpoint, it would be completely irrational to buy.

 

If that is the case, then it seems like you're throwing arguments at me, which I did not make, nor was I even responding to. 

 

I was responding to someone that said that if they had a choice of paying 20,000 baht a month rent or paying 6 million for a condo, they could invest the 6 million and basically just pay their rent with the investment returns. 

 

Without advocating for or against owning, I simply pointed out that this was flawed logic and that if the market tanked early into this person's experiment, they may not even live long enough to get back to 7% annualized ROI, if it's possible at all. 

 

That shouldn't even be controversial.  It's a fact and can easily be proved with simple math. 

 

It doesn't mean that it will happen, but it does mean that you can't treat stock market returns like a 7% yielding savings account.  It doesn't work like that. 

 

So, I haven't a clue why you're talking to me about disingenuous owners and paper profits.  I never said anything about that.

[Pravda]

5 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Have you forgotten immigration?

 

Well... Why only partial quote? 

[ThomasThBKK]

7 minutes ago, ToS2014 said:

I tend to keep a majority of my funds in assets that I can manage to some degree.  A condo or house in Thailand, under a 'company name' or your 'spouse' name simply does not fall into the category of "....assets that i can manage to some degree".

Both can be put in your name, so i don't get that comment.

[GarryP]

38 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

We were talking about real houses, there's no way to build a western style house that is a proper investment in 3 months.

It takes 1-2 years in Spain, in germany, in the US and it takes the same amount of time in Phuket and Bangkok. 

Just randomly putting a house in thai standards somewhere in a village is not an investment and not what we are talking about.

 

Just for reference, these are real proper houses, that people are willing to spill money out for in thailand: http://www.thaweemongkol.co.th/projects/

 

 

 

You could bring that builder to europe and get instant rich, people would line 2 kilometeres for a builder that can build a single family house in London in 3 months.

 

 

 

Rather disingenuous. I would say that the vast majority of foreigners do not live in houses like those posted on that website. Even if they were back in their home countries they would not be living in the European/US equivalent.  Many are living in 2 or 3 bedroom 2-storey houses or bungalows. Normal houses that middle class Thais would be living in. These are real houses.  

Edited November 25, 2019 by GarryP

[Sticky Wicket]

On 11/24/2019 at 10:08 AM, GeorgeCross said:

got to say there is a huge amount of inventory coming on to the market right now in Hua Hin i've never seen anything quite like it. a month ago we was considering buying a holiday let in the 5M baht range and could only find 2 houses off of the private villages (i don't like service charges) - 2 days ago i was browsing about and i swear is saw 10 of them and the prices are crashing fast. did some checking in the sub-5M, 5-10 and 10+ ranges and same thing there.

 

so is this panic selling over immigration changes or a bursting bubble?

 

one things for sure across all price ranges there is panic in the air, seen it before, samui 2009.

 

thai market is holding up though no problems there seems to be foreign real-estate correction

 

'High' season so people think they have more chance of selling

[KSwr7UDHyn]

15 minutes ago, GarryP said:

Rather disingenuous. I would say that the vast majority of foreigners do not live in houses like those posted on that website. Even if they were back in their home countries they would not be living in the European/US equivalent.  Many are living in 2 or 3 bedroom 2-storey houses or bungalows. Normal houses that middle class Thai would be living in. These are real houses.  

Many of the homes on that website would be $1 million+ almost anywhere in the US. 

[ThomasThBKK]

2 minutes ago, GarryP said:

Rather disingenuous. I would say that the vast majority of foreigners do not live in houses like those posted on that website. Even if they were back in their home countries they would not be living in the European/US equivalent.  Many are living in 2 or 3 bedroom 2-storey houses or bungalows. Normal houses that middle class Thai would be living in. These are real houses.  

 

Real houses yes sure, but not real investments, where the vast majority lives in a poor country doesn't matter for an investor. There's no money to be made building and selling these as everyone can easily do it himself. There's however millions of these "proper" houses, and that also includes a vast amount of luxury condos from Bangkok to Phuket, and those are where people make their money, where there's liquidity. I would also call bs that most people foreigners that have the money to own RE live in some issaan shack, most foreigners are in BKK and Phuket and they most likely live in proper housing. 

 

 

As @madmen already said the property market outside of a few places doesnt matter. No one cares about rural germany either, it's all about munich, hamburg and berlin. no one cares about Devon in the UK it's all London and Manchester. Don't buy property in a location no one else is willing to live, it's not an investment.

 

There's only a bunch of stuff worth investing in and that is Bangkok condos/houses/multi family homes, Phuket and other Island and beach/seaview property in a high quality and Boutique resorts. It's easier to flip a 2 mio US Phuket beachfront house or a 1 mio US BKK Condo with terrace and private pool than a 50k USD Issaan house.

 

 

 

 

[Why Me]

15 hours ago, KSwr7UDHyn said:

 

The market grows at a 7%/annul rate, but it does not grow in a straight line.  That 7% is a historical average over many years.  

 

It also assumes that all of your money remains invested. 

 

So, let's say that you decide to set aside 6 million baht ($200K USD) and invest that in the market and use the proceeds to pay your rent at a rate of 4% of your principle balance. 

 

If the market goes up 7% every year, that's wonderful.   You will surely come out ahead and have made an excellent financial decision. 

 

But what happens if the market tanks 20% the first year and instead of pulling out capital gains you have to pull it out of principle? 

 

Your 6 million declined in value by 1.2 million baht.  Plus you're paying 20,000 baht a month (x12 months) which is another 240,000 baht gone.  So, now you're down to $4.56 million. 

 

Basic retirement theory says you should drop your expenses to match the new value of your portfolio value.  So, unless you're willing to give up your lease and get a place for 15,200 baht a month, you're going to have a hard time catching up to that 7% per annum rate of return because every monthly payment is eating into your principle. 

 

Even if the market immediately bounces back 30% the next year, you're still short of 6 million (you would be at 5,928 million).  But, that's rarely how the market works.  You are far more likely to see 15% the next year, and maybe 15% the year after.  But, since you started from a deficit, you're not just taking the rent money out of your capital gains, at least for awhile, you're pulling the returns out of principle so you're going to fall behind even further. 

 

Look up "sequence of returns" for more information on how what the market does in the first few years impacts your overall returns. 

 

 

Again look at the data. An average recession lasts 11 months. Even the 2007-2008 Great recession lasted only 18. So, have the cash to tide over max 2 years till the markets back even and then you're riding the upswing again (and don't forget to replenish the cash bucket in the bull years). No need to drop expenses as you suggest.

 

That's my strategy at any rate. I have cash in my credit union to see me through 2 years. People screw up when then bail out from fear at a market bottom or starting raiding their principal.

 

Anyway, back to Thailand I can't see the advantage of owning unless you really know what you are doing like some earlier posters claim. My rent hasn't gone up in 15 years, my investments back home are fully liquid unlike a house/condo here, I have no worries about being stuck in a poorly maintained place or with lousy neighbors, if I choose I can leave and move to the other end of the country in a week, a nice freedom.

[Lacessit]

5 hours ago, madmen said:

I was making a sales enquiry why would they deny me a sale? Ive been a sales trainer for 30 years and You dont get refused million dollar condo sales ! 

 

Its fact red light areas around the world all end up being bought out and developed as populations grow. You really suggesting that 2 five star hotels and average 2.5 million dollar per unt Q house all 3 a 2 minjute walk to Nana BTS (Q house less than a minute)all got it wrong? Or should we beleive you a 70"s cartoon character That doesnt live here

 

my guess is your in a village somewhere so your hardly qualified to discuss bangkok .  So where do you live you dodged that question before?

I live in Chiang Mai. I can assure you rents are falling off a cliff here and in Chiang Rai. Immigration has succeeded in chasing out the less well-heeled expats, and the Chinese tourists are not replacing them in the condos and houses - they are being bussed to hotels.

I don't know anything about Bangkok real estate except I don't want to live there. My advice to property owners there would be sell up before you are underwater - literally.

[ExpatOilWorker]

20 hours ago, luckyluke said:

A lot of idiots seems to want to live in Thonglor (Sukhumvit 55) and are prepared to pay "silly" prices for it. 

I agree, Thonglor is totally over rated and over priced at the moment, but it could transform into something nice once the grey line subway is build, 5-7 years from now.

[ExpatOilWorker]

8 hours ago, Chazar said:

Lumpini  Ville On  Nut  Bkk  30m2 paid 1   million in 2005-6 new, now selling at 2   million or  maybe you can get one for 1.7 1.8-1.9m.

26.5 m2 rounded up to 30 m2?

 

1.3-1.4 million seem to be the going rate.

 

https://www.hipflat.co.th/en/listings/bangkok-condo-mklffmfx

https://www.hipflat.co.th/en/listings/bangkok-condo-dbhuhgom

 

[Destiny1990]

9 hours ago, Chazar said:

Lumpini  Ville On  Nut  Bkk  30m2 paid 1   million in 2005-6 new, now selling at 2   million or  maybe you can get one for 1.7 1.8-1.9m.

Well even if it was true after paying the real estate agent and all taxes there is hardly any serious profit left  especially after  holding the property for such a long period. 

Nowadays with no tenants available how do u think Capital appreciation is of a unit bought in 2015????

On average what 25-40% devaluation?

Edited November 25, 2019 by Destiny1990