Trump signs Hong Kong bills; Beijing vows retaliation: Now what?

[CGW]

17 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Good. No quarter must be given to the commies.

You talkin about the "Climate change brigade"?

[Catoni]

36 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Perhaps you can enlighten me whether past POTUS has enacted any ACT to intervene of a similar nature. This ACT is pure provocation and interference in China domestic problems. It is lording over China’s sovereignty. 

   So you're saying that the agreement that China signed about allowing Hong Kong autonomy for fity years was meant to be ignored....      Ohhhhh  Kayyyyyy  55555

   And the Hong Kong people calling for freedom... waving U.S. and British flags and now and again a figure of Lady Liberty mean ....... nothing.....  

    You better hope that the Communist Chinese don't commit another Tiananmen Square Massacre.  A student built Lady Liberty statue got destroyed by Communist Chinese soldiers at the time while the people were being murdered.

       The Goddess of Democracy, also known as the Goddess of Democracy and Freedom, the Spirit of Democracy, and the Goddess of Liberty, was a 10-metre-tall statue created over four days by freedom loving Chinese students during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

    I'll stand with those people in the world who love freedom/liberty... against all forms of tyranny and dictatorship.  When I die... I will die knowing I was on the good side...  

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and the off topic replies have been removed. 

[Eric Loh]

56 minutes ago, samran said:

Its about holding China to being a mature member of the international community as well as keeping it to account for the promises made in the joint declaration.

 

No doubt it's also about China's leaders and the Donald's inner circle doing the diplomatic kabuki dance so they can divert attention from them shorting the market at appropriate times. I mean, they gotta make money right?

It is in China interest to maintain the spirit of the joint declaration. HK remained central to China’s economy with its substantial interface with the global capital market. Any sudden interruption to this will be unpredictable and unmanageable on China’s finance system which is rather rickety. 
 

The world need to engage China and expressed serious concerns over the human right abuses. 
 

However Trump bills are provocative as it threatened to review Hong Kong’s favourable trade status and base judgement on their perception of human rights abuses. This I feel is him playing to the gallery. 

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Catoni said:

   So you're saying that the agreement that China signed about allowing Hong Kong autonomy for fity years was meant to be ignored....      Ohhhhh  Kayyyyyy  55555

   And the Hong Kong people calling for freedom... waving U.S. and British flags and now and again a figure of Lady Liberty mean ....... nothing.....  

    You better hope that the Communist Chinese don't commit another Tiananmen Square Massacre.  A student built Lady Liberty statue got destroyed by Communist Chinese soldiers at the time while the people were being murdered.

       The Goddess of Democracy, also known as the Goddess of Democracy and Freedom, the Spirit of Democracy, and the Goddess of Liberty, was a 10-metre-tall statue created over four days by freedom loving Chinese students during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

    I'll stand with those people in the world who love freedom/liberty... against all forms of tyranny and dictatorship.  When I die... I will die knowing I was on the good side...  

If it is about freedom and democracy, I will march with you. If it’s about bullying and threats, I will call them out 

[Redline]

20 hours ago, nausea said:

I'm a bit puzzled as to why China just doesn't go in and crush it; too many financial interests involved I guess. Reminds me of a virus, can China contain it? 

 Because Hong Kong still has customers that are not Communist or authoritarian-so does China 

[Mavideol]

23 hours ago, JHolmesJr said:

come on you can do better....got any other juicier unproven theories?

sure man, pick one 555

 

Mexico will pay for the wall, China is paying for the tariff hike, N Korea will not run any more missile tests, S Korea will pay 5 billions if they want US military there (BTW they are still there under same previous conditions) a so called new trade deal with Canada & Mexico will help recover US economy (in the mean time US companies still move down south, Iran, South Arabia (killing Kashoggi) Syria remove the military to allow his best friend Vlad to control the area, Afghanistan last minute visit as a publicity stunt, he said that all US military will be returning home but he send additional ones to Afghanistan... because Vlad is not interested in Afghanistan.... do you want more ???? the guy is a good used car sales man, nothing else, absolutely not fit to be POTUS

[Brigand]

Love or hate Trump, at least he is standing up to the Chinese fascists a bit ... which no-one else does as they are too scared of trade retaliation, which is beyond lame and also duplicitous. Even ISIS seems to have given the Chinese a pass and the Chinese are screwing the Muslims over in their area way worse than anyone else is. Trump is obviously a very polarizing figure, granted ... but it's long overdue that someone stands up to the Chinese in one way or another.

[zydeco]

1 hour ago, Brigand said:

Love or hate Trump, at least he is standing up to the Chinese fascists a bit ... which no-one else does as they are too scared of trade retaliation, which is beyond lame and also duplicitous. Even ISIS seems to have given the Chinese a pass and the Chinese are screwing the Muslims over in their area way worse than anyone else is. Trump is obviously a very polarizing figure, granted ... but it's long overdue that someone stands up to the Chinese in one way or another.

A couple of years ago, I thought just like you do. But he's faking it. It's just another cowardly lie. This man's word and promises are worthless. In return for China buying $50 billion worth of soybeans, he will allow them to continue to steal IP and spy on Americans. All because he wants to goose the markets. How long have we heard "trade deal is nearly complete?" Over a year? Now, it's "phase one" of the trade deal that was complete and finished and waiting for a signature back in early October. Trump said so. Said the Chinese were already buying his stupid beans. What happened? Nothing. Trump is desperate for an agreement. The worst negotiator evah. 

[Brigand]

20 minutes ago, zydeco said:

A couple of years ago, I thought just like you do. But he's faking it. It's just another cowardly lie. This man's word and promises are worthless. In return for China buying $50 billion worth of soybeans, he will allow them to continue to steal IP and spy on Americans. All because he wants to goose the markets. How long have we heard "trade deal is nearly complete?" Over a year? Now, it's "phase one" of the trade deal that was complete and finished and waiting for a signature back in early October. Trump said so. Said the Chinese were already buying his stupid beans. What happened? Nothing. Trump is desperate for an agreement. The worst negotiator evah. 

Maybe so, but there is a lot you didn't address in that post too. Trump was the easy bit.

[brokenbone]

11 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Perhaps you can enlighten me whether past POTUS has enacted any ACT to intervene of a similar nature. This ACT is pure provocation and interference in China domestic problems. It is lording over China’s sovereignty. 

syria for example

[Traubert]

China can withdraw Hong Kong's favoured status in the blink of an eye and without any fanfare or posturing.

 

They might well do too because it is fast becoming more trouble than it's worth. They'll just replace it with Shenzhen. Then what will all the American financial institutions in HK do? All 110 of them.

[Selatan]

On 11/28/2019 at 7:27 PM, nausea said:

I'm a bit puzzled as to why China just doesn't go in and crush it; too many financial interests involved I guess. Reminds me of a virus, can China contain it? 

It's about Taiwan. China could have simply let the lease on the New Territories expire in 1997 and after taking that large part of Hong Kong, it could simply march in and take over tiny Kowloon and Hong Kong Island just like what India did to Goa. The one country, two systems idea was supposed to be a way for Taiwan to reunify with the mainland without resorting to war. 

China is hoping the Kuomintang candidate would win the Taiwanese presidential election in January 2020 because Kuomintang is pro-reunification, so that's why China did nothing to intervene in HK to show that it respects the system. As long as the Chief Executive of HK doesn't request for assistance from the People's Liberation Army, the PLA soldiers stationed there would do nothing.

It's now very hard for the KMT to win because of US and Taiwan's intervention in HK, so it's likely China would do something to HK after the January elections.

[Cryingdick]

17 minutes ago, Traubert said:

China can withdraw Hong Kong's favoured status in the blink of an eye and without any fanfare or posturing.

 

They might well do too because it is fast becoming more trouble than it's worth. They'll just replace it with Shenzhen. Then what will all the American financial institutions in HK do? All 110 of them.

 

Presumably HK would go into a depression, sanctions would be put in place on China and anybody in their right mind with money would look for greener pastures. It would be short term pain for the American financial sector but a huge blow to China. 

 

If tariffs slightly hurt China sanctions will cripple them.

[Selatan]

1 minute ago, Cryingdick said:

 

Presumably HK would go into a depression, sanctions would be put in place on China and anybody in their right mind with money would look for greener pastures. It would be short term pain for the American financial sector but a huge blow to China. 

 

If tariffs slightly hurt China sanctions will cripple them.

Sanction China? Like how? Stop trading with China? See who die first. All sanctions on China after the 1989 Tiananmen incident had backfired. The Europeans imposed a weapons embargo on China. Before that, China used to buy some weapons from Europe. Now? China can produce almost all the advanced weapons that it needs. 

The US had introduced laws to prevent cooperation with China on space research. China was not allowed to be part of the International Space Station. So? China builds its own space station.

If the US blocks its companies from selling components to Chinese companies, what do you think would eventually happen to US industries if China eventually managed to produce all the components that its companies require?

If the US couldn't strangle tiny North Korea to death, not sure why some people thought China was that easy to be bullied.

[JHolmesJr]

11 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

However Trump bills are provocative as it threatened to review Hong Kong’s favourable trade status and base judgement on their perception of human rights abuses.

 

Its not Trumps bill....everything isn't his fault you know.

Start practising some honesty once in a while.

 

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

[Catoni]

On 11/29/2019 at 1:33 AM, Eric Loh said:

If it is about freedom and democracy, I will march with you. If it’s about bullying and threats, I will call them out 

   Good...so you’re calling out the Chinese. Happy to have you on our side. Best regards. 

[candide]

On 11/29/2019 at 6:12 PM, JHolmesJr said:

 

Its not Trumps bill....everything isn't his fault you know.

Start practising some honesty once in a while.

 

For once we agree. Passed with bipartisan support.

[Mitkof Island]

King trump finally did something worthwhile for once. A pity once he is out of office he will be spending the rest of his days with his mobster buddies in prison.

[tsk3009]

On 11/28/2019 at 5:50 PM, Mavideol said:

the master of the deal can't make a deal with the Chinese, Japanese, Korea (2) and not Mexico, now he's trying the hard way with China, it will not work either way

He did make deals with Mexico and South Korea fyi. The US doesn't need a deal with China. It's China that needs the deal. 

[tsk3009]

On 11/29/2019 at 9:33 AM, Eric Loh said:

Just his bullying style. The Act is an irritant to US-China relationship. Previous Presidents were wiser to avoid meddling in the internal affairs of any nations. They choose the wiser route to criticize China behavior but not enact aggressive Acts. This Act is provocation by reviewing China’s autonomy attitude towards Hong Kong with the threat of withdrawing MFN status for Hong Kong. This is intervening in domestic policy of China. Trump is so desperate to force China to make a trade deal and stoping his farm supporters that have turned on him. 

This is one of the stupidest, misguided posts I've read in a long time. Just to educate you. The bills were written by Senator Rubio. The bills passed the Senate 100-0. In the House the bills passed 400-1. The bills then were sent to Trump. When the most divided country in the world can agree to oppose you 500-1, you are apparently doing something wrong. Of course, other presidents meddled in other countries affairs. Have you heard of the Middle East? China is actually violating the terms of the agreement that they signed when HK was turned over to China. If you truly understood what was going on, you'd recognize that China is in fact desperate to make a deal. China is losing customers in a permanent way. Farmers are hurting just as much by the trade war as by the non-passage of USCMA. US soy is going to Brazil now and more Brazilian soy to China. How are pork prices in China these days?

[tsk3009]

On 11/29/2019 at 12:29 PM, Catoni said:

   So you're saying that the agreement that China signed about allowing Hong Kong autonomy for fity years was meant to be ignored....      Ohhhhh  Kayyyyyy  55555

   And the Hong Kong people calling for freedom... waving U.S. and British flags and now and again a figure of Lady Liberty mean ....... nothing.....  

    You better hope that the Communist Chinese don't commit another Tiananmen Square Massacre.  A student built Lady Liberty statue got destroyed by Communist Chinese soldiers at the time while the people were being murdered.

       The Goddess of Democracy, also known as the Goddess of Democracy and Freedom, the Spirit of Democracy, and the Goddess of Liberty, was a 10-metre-tall statue created over four days by freedom loving Chinese students during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

    I'll stand with those people in the world who love freedom/liberty... against all forms of tyranny and dictatorship.  When I die... I will die knowing I was on the good side...  

Mr. Loh has probably never heard of the Tiananmen Square massacre, but I am sure he does know about the terrorist called the Dalai Lama.

[tsk3009]

On 11/29/2019 at 11:22 PM, Traubert said:

China can withdraw Hong Kong's favoured status in the blink of an eye and without any fanfare or posturing.

 

They might well do too because it is fast becoming more trouble than it's worth. They'll just replace it with Shenzhen. Then what will all the American financial institutions in HK do? All 110 of them.

Doing so would actually be a catastrophe for China. They won't do that. You don't understand the gravity of HK's status. China accesses dollars and capital markets through HK. The economy is already highly leveraged and teetering. The CCP would never consider such a move, it could push the economy over the cliff in a big way.

[bristolboy]

On 11/28/2019 at 10:54 PM, Cryingdick said:

Let them retaliate. China is hurting way more than the USA is. In fact consumer confidence is very high and there have been some very impressive retail numbers. The only way China can retaliate is to walk away from the table. That would cause a small downward movement to the market but it wouldn't matter that much.

 

In the mean time we should hopefully get a deal with Mexico and Canada as they are or were in DC to wrap things up. The USMCA is much more important than China and is much bigger numbers. 

 

Oh well. It's Thanksgiving and record numbers of people are traveling and online spending money. Let China eat a sock they are in no position to threaten anybody and their ability to do so is in decline.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all fellow Americans. 

 

 

 

China is currently our largest goods trading partner with $659.8 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2018. Goods exports totaled $120.3 billion; goods imports totaled $539.5 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $419.2 billion in 2018.

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+much+trade+do+we+do+with+china&oq=how+much+trade+do+we+do+with+china&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l6j69i64.8531j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

The most worrying new survey for Trump has nothing to do with his polling

The manufacturing sector is contracting and analysts are blaming Trump’s trade war.

https://www.vox.com/2019/10/2/20893767/manufacturing-contracting-trump-trade-war

 

Trump is heading into reelection with a deep manufacturing recession

September marked the worst month for U.S. manufacturing since the Great Recession

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/01/trump-is-heading-into-re-election-with-deep-manufacturing-recession/

 

 

[bristolboy]

On 11/29/2019 at 11:43 PM, Cryingdick said:

 

Presumably HK would go into a depression, sanctions would be put in place on China and anybody in their right mind with money would look for greener pastures. It would be short term pain for the American financial sector but a huge blow to China. 

 

If tariffs slightly hurt China sanctions will cripple them.

Given that China is the #1 trading partner in goods with the USA, do ya think that that old expression about "shooting yourself in the foot" might apply?

It's already put American manufacturing into a severe downturn. Ya know, the sector of the American economy that Trump vowed to bring back?

And now there's this:

Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

"For China’s top smartphone maker, U.S. suppliers are increasingly a nice-to-have, not a must-have

American tech companies are getting the go-ahead to resume business with Chinese smartphone giant Huawei Technologies Co., but it may be too late: It is now building smartphones without U.S. chips.

Huawei’s latest phone, which it unveiled in September—the Mate 30 with a curved display, telephone and wide-angle cameras that competes with Apple Inc.’s iPhone 11—contained no U.S. parts, according to an analysis by UBS and Fomalhaut Techno Solutions, a Japanese technology lab that took the device apart to inspect its insides."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-manages-to-make-smartphones-without-american-chips-11575196201?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[Scott]

A post with an altered quote has been removed:

 

2. Please do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes or wording. Such posts will be deleted and the user warned.
 

[rabas]

10 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Given that China is the #1 trading partner in goods with the USA, do ya think that that old expression about "shooting yourself in the foot" might apply?

It's already put American manufacturing into a severe downturn. Ya know, the sector of the American economy that Trump vowed to bring back?

And now there's this:

Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

"For China’s top smartphone maker, U.S. suppliers are increasingly a nice-to-have, not a must-have

American tech companies are getting the go-ahead to resume business with Chinese smartphone giant Huawei Technologies Co., but it may be too late: It is now building smartphones without U.S. chips.

Huawei’s latest phone, which it unveiled in September—the Mate 30 with a curved display, telephone and wide-angle cameras that competes with Apple Inc.’s iPhone 11—contained no U.S. parts, according to an analysis by UBS and Fomalhaut Techno Solutions, a Japanese technology lab that took the device apart to inspect its insides."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-manages-to-make-smartphones-without-american-chips-11575196201?mod=hp_lead_pos1

I'm still not sure why some people are bothered by the pursuit of fair and balanced trade with China, it is long overdue. 

 

Huawei's expected use of its own Kirin990 chipset in the Mate 30 was publicly announced three months ago at IFA-2019 in Berlin. Old news. People familiar with the telecoms and chip industries surely foresaw Huawei's move in this direction years back. Kirin990 is not their first chipset. Chipsets take years to develop.

 

Huawei has always been technically aggressive, given the full backing of the entire Chinese Communist Party. Which is one of the issues.

 

 

[bristolboy]

36 minutes ago, rabas said:

I'm still not sure why some people are bothered by the pursuit of fair and balanced trade with China, it is long overdue. 

 

Huawei's expected use of its own Kirin990 chipset in the Mate 30 was publicly announced three months ago at IFA-2019 in Berlin. Old news. People familiar with the telecoms and chip industries surely foresaw Huawei's move in this direction years back. Kirin990 is not their first chipset. Chipsets take years to develop.

 

Huawei has always been technically aggressive, given the full backing of the entire Chinese Communist Party. Which is one of the issues.

 

 

Didn't know about the chipset. Thanks for that. But it also points out the lessening economic advantage sanctions against China enjoy.

And as for the nonsense about "fair and balanced trade." As any economist will tell you, the single biggest factor in trade imbalance is deficit spending. So equating fairness with balanced trade is just nuts. Do you believe that manufacturing will return to the USA if very strong sanctions were imposed on China? Right now US manufacturing is hurting badly because of the tariffs and sanctions. By some miracle trade if between China and America were balanced, it would just mean that manufacturing has gone to other countries. And that's massively unlikely anyway, since there aren't any countries that even have the combination of population and expertise that could take up the huge increase such a switch would necessitate.

And of course there is the fact, that trade imbalances aren't by themselves bad things. It really depends on what percentage of the economy they amount to.

[Cryingdick]

Trump signed the bill and owned it. He knows we are a step up in the trade war anyway.