Thailand Is Down...

[bingobongo]

you are right on the money jasreeve17

Thailand hits bottom of regional economies

Thailand currently occupies the lowest rung on Southeast Asia's economic growth ladder after a poor 2006 performance, according to a United Nations report which forecasts even lower expansion this year.

The report, released on Wednesday, said that the kingdom achieved only 5.0 per cent GDP growth in 2006, compared to its 4.5 per cent growth in 2005.

While the Thai economy rose marginally, the forecast for the coming year is that Thai GDP growth is expected to be lower in 2007 than 2006, at 4.7 per cent, pressure for the baht's appreciation will likely continue, and investment looks gloomy, with only Indonesia performing more poorly in the region.

The United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap) in its annual economic and social survey, "Surging Ahead in Uncertain Times", unveiled in a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand, noted that for the eighth year the region grew faster in regard to economy than any other region worldwide, registering 7.9 per cent growth in 2006, up from 7.6 per cent in 2005, but that Thailand isn't in the same picture.

A wait-and-see attitude among foreign investors and "ongoing political tensions" mean that Thailand's macroeconomic outlook will be "subject to greater downside risks than other southeast Asian economies."

However, Thailand leads much of the Asian region in gender equality, while South Asia lags behind, according to UNEscap Emerging Social Issues chief Thelma Kay, who said that in government and business Thai women occupy more powerful positions and that access to meaningful employment and educational opportunities is better in Thailand than most other countries in the region.

According to UNEscap deputy executive secretary Shigeru Mochida, "Thailand is such an important country in the region, and in the world, that everybody is watching and hoping that everything will be settled very soon (as the post-coup d'etat government intends) and that we can expect a predictable regime and stable economic policies."

The United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap) annual economic and social survey, "Surging Ahead in Uncertain Times", noted that for the eighth consecutive year the region grew faster in regard to economy than any other region worldwide, registering 7.9 per cent growth in 2006, up from 7.6 per cent in 2005, but that Thailand isn't in the same picture.

While not directly addressing the capital controls measures imposed by the Bank of Thailand in December last year, Escap predicted that exchange rate management will be the region's biggest challenge through the year, and anticipates the need to recast major regional currencies to appreciate due to capital inflows and imbalances in the US economy. Central banks throughout the region can choose any two of three policy options, according to the report, targeting exchange rates, having an independent monetary policy, or keeping capital accounts open – but not all three at the same time.

Escap sees greats exchange rate flexibility as one sustainable solution that would take away the "one-way bet" that encourages speculative capital inflows.

Shortages of capital funds are hindering the recovery of private investment in Thailand, Mr. Kumar explained, as well as other countries in East Asia. Credit shortage was evident in the kingdom as the share of individual consumption loans rose from 12 per cent during 2000-2005 as compasred to 24 per cent by mid-2006.

Six major possible downside risks are identified: an oil price shock; an abrupt cooling of US housing markets; a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances; a reversal of Japans' emergency economic recovery; economic "overheating" in China; and an avian flu pandemic.

UNEscap says that Thailand is, like many neighbours, increasingly vulnerable to a new currency crisis, comparing the situation to that of the 1997 economic crisis -- but without saying that such a crisis will occur.

Thailand's vulnerability , like other regional crisis-hit countries, "is due to appreciation of the currency driven by short-term capital inflows, and inflation in the economy from higher oil prices.

UNEscap economist Raj Kumar noted that the Thai market responded to oil price pressures with a 1.5 per cent fall in oil consumption, despite 5 per cent economic growth.

The survey also said that gender inequality causes the region to lose US$42-47 billion annually due to restrictions on women's access to employment and another US$16-30 billion a year because of limits to women's educational access.

Much of the economic uncertainty is an unfavourable external environment, largely due to the slowing of the US economy and "a modest decline in global electronics demand," the report notes, giving the Asia-Pacific region high marks with continued dynamism "despite risks of further oil price shocks and a sharp depreciation of the US dollar."

The survey warns that interventions by monetary authorities to keep currencies down are leading to inflated asset values, especially in housing and equity markets.

Some 16 per cent of GDP and more than one-third of overall world economic growth is taking place in Asia, according to the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap).

"The three big Asian economic – China, India and Japan – will maintain the growth momentum and may provide good opportunities to other countries," UNEscap executive secretary Kim Hak-Su said before the launch.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=118176

[jasreeve17]

you are right on the money jasreeve17

Thailand hits bottom of regional economies

Thailand currently occupies the lowest rung on Southeast Asia's economic growth ladder after a poor 2006 performance, according to a United Nations report which forecasts even lower expansion this year.

The report, released on Wednesday, said that the kingdom achieved only 5.0 per cent GDP growth in 2006, compared to its 4.5 per cent growth in 2005.

While the Thai economy rose marginally, the forecast for the coming year is that Thai GDP growth is expected to be lower in 2007 than 2006, at 4.7 per cent, pressure for the baht's appreciation will likely continue, and investment looks gloomy, with only Indonesia performing more poorly in the region.

The United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap) in its annual economic and social survey, "Surging Ahead in Uncertain Times", unveiled in a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand, noted that for the eighth year the region grew faster in regard to economy than any other region worldwide, registering 7.9 per cent growth in 2006, up from 7.6 per cent in 2005, but that Thailand isn't in the same picture.

A wait-and-see attitude among foreign investors and "ongoing political tensions" mean that Thailand's macroeconomic outlook will be "subject to greater downside risks than other southeast Asian economies."

However, Thailand leads much of the Asian region in gender equality, while South Asia lags behind, according to UNEscap Emerging Social Issues chief Thelma Kay, who said that in government and business Thai women occupy more powerful positions and that access to meaningful employment and educational opportunities is better in Thailand than most other countries in the region.

According to UNEscap deputy executive secretary Shigeru Mochida, "Thailand is such an important country in the region, and in the world, that everybody is watching and hoping that everything will be settled very soon (as the post-coup d'etat government intends) and that we can expect a predictable regime and stable economic policies."

The United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap) annual economic and social survey, "Surging Ahead in Uncertain Times", noted that for the eighth consecutive year the region grew faster in regard to economy than any other region worldwide, registering 7.9 per cent growth in 2006, up from 7.6 per cent in 2005, but that Thailand isn't in the same picture.

While not directly addressing the capital controls measures imposed by the Bank of Thailand in December last year, Escap predicted that exchange rate management will be the region's biggest challenge through the year, and anticipates the need to recast major regional currencies to appreciate due to capital inflows and imbalances in the US economy. Central banks throughout the region can choose any two of three policy options, according to the report, targeting exchange rates, having an independent monetary policy, or keeping capital accounts open – but not all three at the same time.

Escap sees greats exchange rate flexibility as one sustainable solution that would take away the "one-way bet" that encourages speculative capital inflows.

Shortages of capital funds are hindering the recovery of private investment in Thailand, Mr. Kumar explained, as well as other countries in East Asia. Credit shortage was evident in the kingdom as the share of individual consumption loans rose from 12 per cent during 2000-2005 as compasred to 24 per cent by mid-2006.

Six major possible downside risks are identified: an oil price shock; an abrupt cooling of US housing markets; a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances; a reversal of Japans' emergency economic recovery; economic "overheating" in China; and an avian flu pandemic.

UNEscap says that Thailand is, like many neighbours, increasingly vulnerable to a new currency crisis, comparing the situation to that of the 1997 economic crisis -- but without saying that such a crisis will occur.

Thailand's vulnerability , like other regional crisis-hit countries, "is due to appreciation of the currency driven by short-term capital inflows, and inflation in the economy from higher oil prices.

UNEscap economist Raj Kumar noted that the Thai market responded to oil price pressures with a 1.5 per cent fall in oil consumption, despite 5 per cent economic growth.

The survey also said that gender inequality causes the region to lose US$42-47 billion annually due to restrictions on women's access to employment and another US$16-30 billion a year because of limits to women's educational access.

Much of the economic uncertainty is an unfavourable external environment, largely due to the slowing of the US economy and "a modest decline in global electronics demand," the report notes, giving the Asia-Pacific region high marks with continued dynamism "despite risks of further oil price shocks and a sharp depreciation of the US dollar."

The survey warns that interventions by monetary authorities to keep currencies down are leading to inflated asset values, especially in housing and equity markets.

Some 16 per cent of GDP and more than one-third of overall world economic growth is taking place in Asia, according to the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap).

"The three big Asian economic – China, India and Japan – will maintain the growth momentum and may provide good opportunities to other countries," UNEscap executive secretary Kim Hak-Su said before the launch.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=118176

Thank you Sir, and it's getting worse...

... for example; work seems to have stopped on many of the new apartment buildings in my area. It's been this way for the last few months. I get the bts from National Stadium to Pra Kanong, at various times of the day, and on some of these half built sites I've seen zero progression (not one workman) in several months.

[JR Texas]

you are right on the money jasreeve17

Thailand hits bottom of regional economies

Thailand currently occupies the lowest rung on Southeast Asia's economic growth ladder after a poor 2006 performance, according to a United Nations report which forecasts even lower expansion this year.

The report, released on Wednesday, said that the kingdom achieved only 5.0 per cent GDP growth in 2006, compared to its 4.5 per cent growth in 2005.

While the Thai economy rose marginally, the forecast for the coming year is that Thai GDP growth is expected to be lower in 2007 than 2006, at 4.7 per cent, pressure for the baht's appreciation will likely continue, and investment looks gloomy, with only Indonesia performing more poorly in the region.

The United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap) in its annual economic and social survey, "Surging Ahead in Uncertain Times", unveiled in a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand, noted that for the eighth year the region grew faster in regard to economy than any other region worldwide, registering 7.9 per cent growth in 2006, up from 7.6 per cent in 2005, but that Thailand isn't in the same picture.

A wait-and-see attitude among foreign investors and "ongoing political tensions" mean that Thailand's macroeconomic outlook will be "subject to greater downside risks than other southeast Asian economies."

However, Thailand leads much of the Asian region in gender equality, while South Asia lags behind, according to UNEscap Emerging Social Issues chief Thelma Kay, who said that in government and business Thai women occupy more powerful positions and that access to meaningful employment and educational opportunities is better in Thailand than most other countries in the region.

According to UNEscap deputy executive secretary Shigeru Mochida, "Thailand is such an important country in the region, and in the world, that everybody is watching and hoping that everything will be settled very soon (as the post-coup d'etat government intends) and that we can expect a predictable regime and stable economic policies."

The United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap) annual economic and social survey, "Surging Ahead in Uncertain Times", noted that for the eighth consecutive year the region grew faster in regard to economy than any other region worldwide, registering 7.9 per cent growth in 2006, up from 7.6 per cent in 2005, but that Thailand isn't in the same picture.

While not directly addressing the capital controls measures imposed by the Bank of Thailand in December last year, Escap predicted that exchange rate management will be the region's biggest challenge through the year, and anticipates the need to recast major regional currencies to appreciate due to capital inflows and imbalances in the US economy. Central banks throughout the region can choose any two of three policy options, according to the report, targeting exchange rates, having an independent monetary policy, or keeping capital accounts open – but not all three at the same time.

Escap sees greats exchange rate flexibility as one sustainable solution that would take away the "one-way bet" that encourages speculative capital inflows.

Shortages of capital funds are hindering the recovery of private investment in Thailand, Mr. Kumar explained, as well as other countries in East Asia. Credit shortage was evident in the kingdom as the share of individual consumption loans rose from 12 per cent during 2000-2005 as compasred to 24 per cent by mid-2006.

Six major possible downside risks are identified: an oil price shock; an abrupt cooling of US housing markets; a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances; a reversal of Japans' emergency economic recovery; economic "overheating" in China; and an avian flu pandemic.

UNEscap says that Thailand is, like many neighbours, increasingly vulnerable to a new currency crisis, comparing the situation to that of the 1997 economic crisis -- but without saying that such a crisis will occur.

Thailand's vulnerability , like other regional crisis-hit countries, "is due to appreciation of the currency driven by short-term capital inflows, and inflation in the economy from higher oil prices.

UNEscap economist Raj Kumar noted that the Thai market responded to oil price pressures with a 1.5 per cent fall in oil consumption, despite 5 per cent economic growth.

The survey also said that gender inequality causes the region to lose US$42-47 billion annually due to restrictions on women's access to employment and another US$16-30 billion a year because of limits to women's educational access.

Much of the economic uncertainty is an unfavourable external environment, largely due to the slowing of the US economy and "a modest decline in global electronics demand," the report notes, giving the Asia-Pacific region high marks with continued dynamism "despite risks of further oil price shocks and a sharp depreciation of the US dollar."

The survey warns that interventions by monetary authorities to keep currencies down are leading to inflated asset values, especially in housing and equity markets.

Some 16 per cent of GDP and more than one-third of overall world economic growth is taking place in Asia, according to the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNEscap).

"The three big Asian economic – China, India and Japan – will maintain the growth momentum and may provide good opportunities to other countries," UNEscap executive secretary Kim Hak-Su said before the launch.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=118176

Thank you Sir, and it's getting worse...

... for example; work seems to have stopped on many of the new apartment buildings in my area. It's been this way for the last few months. I get the bts from National Stadium to Pra Kanong, at various times of the day, and on some of these half built sites I've seen zero progression (not one workman) in several months.

JR Texas: The last time I was in the Pattaya-Jomtien area it looked way, way down.......lots of empty concrete coffin condos with no workers.......lots of vacancy signs for finished coffin condos.

In addition, the discussions that I had with shop owners revealed that the local economy was BAD........worse than one year ago.

Some of this has to do with the political instability, but a lot of it has to do with TOXIN the Magnificent and his lingering visa/business rules that are taking the country down (it is like a fart that stays inside the room because nobody has the will to get up and open an window).

The govt. still thinks that the Russians and Chinese will come here in droves and spend huge sums of money.........so, no problem making visa problems for the vast majority of low-income expats that are living here and the hoards of budget tourists that flock here. T

hey are wrong.........total miscalculation.......bad move. Much more senseless pain to come..........

[jasreeve17]

I tend to agree with you again Mr Texas, at least in part.

The Government does seem to have banked on the Chinese / Korean / Russian sector - like the'd be a step up...

On the other hand, I see loads of Chinese and Koreans around Bangkok. I have also seen quite a lot of Chinese "ladies of the night" (as my grandma used to say) hanging around. I spoke to a couple, and apparently they are factory workers ion the big Chinese cities and come here for a months "working holiday".

Strange times.

I would not buy a condo off plan in Bangkok. It'd be suicidal, in my most humble opinion.

[Ulysses G.]

I have also seen quite a lot of Chinese "ladies of the night" (as my grandma used to say) hanging around.

Where do you see them "hanging around"? I have VERY important "research" to do on this subject!

[blizzard]

nothing like a good chinese lady of the evening. thais lub em!

[Erwin1011]

My lady works in the hospitality business here in Bkk (no, not that, back office accounting) and occupancy levels a really low. 20-30% . Revenue per room is dropping drastically and even with low rates they are not able to attract traffic from abroad.

Some groups have asked their employees to take Saturday off as part of their outstanding vacation days.

As far as her info goes Hua Hin more or less ok, Phuket reasonable, ChiangMai low, Bkk disastrous across the board with a few exceptions, she has no data for

Pattaya.

[lannarebirth]

Thailand down? Sure

Right now there is a huge building binge going on because of the excess currency

I love it when people say - my home has appreciated 50% in the past couple of years.

we only have the buying power of less than 10%.

Japan is attempting to make thialand the detroit of asia and you can bet if it works - others will follow.

now we have one of the scariest and much much bigger than pre-depression bubbles ever

Shochu has done his homework very carefully.

He's made a very neat summary of the essential factors.

I'll add only one, small, detail to everything above.

It is that Thais save gold.

Not the paper kind that depends on a stock exchange, but the kind that feels heavy in your hand.

Many Thai people, whenever they have money to save, will buy a gold necklace or bracelet and put it away "to keep".

Add that factor into the equation and I certainly agree with Shochu's assessment:

In the long run, Thailand will be fine.

I'm staying.

You may be right, and just about every asset class has it's up cycles, but it has been my observation for several decades, that universally, rich people sell gold to poor people who buy gold.

[torito]

These last two posts seem to have wandered way off topic. In answer to the OP, every country has its up and downs, unless it's so down that the only way is up. Thailand doesn't fall under this category and will boom again.

The quicker the govt. gets its act together, promotes industry and fosters foreign confidence in investment, the sooner you'll see an upswing. There's nothing wrong with the Thai economy that can't be put right, given the right management.

So true, qwertz.

I think most of us agree with 'qwertz'-s last sentence; we all know that....

However, to change the leaders of this country from self-protectionistic into technocratical, economical, pragmatical and caring leaders will take time...a long time.

I said it many times before: it's all about power and money, but maybe I'm wrong and money comes first and than power...no money, no power.

LaoPo

Very good point LaoPo.

The problem being that these morons at the top won't be going away in a hurry. Thus instead of moving along with other countries in Asia (Malaysia, Singapore, HK, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, China, India, etc), Thailand will start to fall behind (further) and perhaps even go backwards. These self protecting "leaders" are seriously damaging Thailand's future.

Qwertz is correct too, but the right managment is not going to come in a hurry. So the up period is further away, and in the mean time the down period gets worse, and the long term damage increases.

Very good point I think. 'qwertz' is right, but the only factor that complicates things is time.

The educational system requires improvements..

I was working in a global company which was experimenting in Thailand..after a while they decided to move to Philippines becasue of the resouring factor...cheap English speaking professionals. Philippines' professionals are not better than Thais...but they speak English. I wonder how many companies are with the same predicament....and how long it will take Thailand to be English speaking (to the necessary level only)?

The second problem is corruption....how long it will take until it gets to a tolerant level?

[larvidchr]

I have also seen quite a lot of Chinese "ladies of the night" (as my grandma used to say) hanging around.

Where do you see them "hanging around"? I have VERY important "research" to do on this subject!

[torito]

I have also seen quite a lot of Chinese "ladies of the night" (as my grandma used to say) hanging around.

Where do you see them "hanging around"? I have VERY important "research" to do on this subject!

[Heng]

Haven't seen a real increase in folks coming into our shops for secured loans. Usually when the economy takes a serious dip, or even when things are booming, will see an uptrend both ways. I wouldn't say down, but somewhat stagnant. Thank goodness that interest doesn't sleep.

[wolfmanjack]

Haven't seen a real increase in folks coming into our shops for secured loans. Usually when the economy takes a serious dip, or even when things are booming, will see an uptrend both ways. I wouldn't say down, but somewhat stagnant. Thank goodness that interest doesn't sleep.

Check out the night bazaar. Many shops in the night bazaar for rent. Why ? >>>>>no people.

Bor Song >>>>>no people.

Ban Tawai>>>>>no people.

I know of 2 shipping companies that closed last week. One of which was a pretty big company.

A couple of my suppliers that were pretty big are now closed.

Not only are the Foreign tourist down in chiang mai but the thai tourist also. Usually it starts picking up towards the end of May. The Night Bazaar was dead last night.

[JR Texas]

Haven't seen a real increase in folks coming into our shops for secured loans. Usually when the economy takes a serious dip, or even when things are booming, will see an uptrend both ways. I wouldn't say down, but somewhat stagnant. Thank goodness that interest doesn't sleep.

Check out the night bazaar. Many shops in the night bazaar for rent. Why ? >>>>>no people.

Bor Song >>>>>no people.

Ban Tawai>>>>>no people.

I know of 2 shipping companies that closed last week. One of which was a pretty big company.

A couple of my suppliers that were pretty big are now closed.

Not only are the Foreign tourist down in chiang mai but the thai tourist also. Usually it starts picking up towards the end of May. The Night Bazaar was dead last night.

JR Texas: Personally I think the official statistics are officially misleading. I think personal observations on this thread are probably closer to the truth of what is actually happening on the ground (multiply each observation by 1000 or so).

My guess is that the taxi drivers at Suv. Airport know more about tourism than the people the govt. hires to track tourism. One driver told me that tourism was down........he said most of the tourists were from Russia and China....and that most were going to Phuket (first), Pattaya (second) and Bangkok (third).

Given this, one would expect better tourism statistics in Phuket than at other locations.....also Pattaya. If true, then a downward trend in tourism in Pattaya would be an ominous sign......even more ominous would be a downward trend in Phuket.....probably the last place in Thailand to be hard hit (of course, if the violence in the south spread to Phuket, then you can forget about it........reality check).

As I said previously, on my last trip to Pattaya (about two months ago), many shop owners told me that business was down from the same period last year. I saw lots of concrete coffins (the condos that are portrayed as paradise by the sea...ha ha ha) for sale.....other concrete coffin buildings that were supposed to be under construction had no workers.

I would not buy any real estate in this market or start a business...and right now I want to start a business and hire Thais, but Cambodia and Vietnam seem like better alternatives for business.

Too bad.......all the govt. has to do is roll back the xenophobic-induced visa/business changes to what they were in the mid-to-late 90s and things would be better.

And if they would change the business rules in a way that would make small scale investment an easy process for foreigners.........the economy would take off........and many good jobs would be created.

Instead, those that rule want to keep the bottom 99% of the population working like slaves for the top 1% of the population. And they want to prevent foreigners from competing with them. It is a recipe for disaster.

[wolfmanjack]

Haven't seen a real increase in folks coming into our shops for secured loans. Usually when the economy takes a serious dip, or even when things are booming, will see an uptrend both ways. I wouldn't say down, but somewhat stagnant. Thank goodness that interest doesn't sleep.

Check out the night bazaar. Many shops in the night bazaar for rent. Why ? >>>>>no people.

Bor Song >>>>>no people.

Ban Tawai>>>>>no people.

I know of 2 shipping companies that closed last week. One of which was a pretty big company.

A couple of my suppliers that were pretty big are now closed.

Not only are the Foreign tourist down in chiang mai but the thai tourist also. Usually it starts picking up towards the end of May. The Night Bazaar was dead last night.

JR Texas: Personally I think the official statistics are officially misleading. I think personal observations on this thread are probably closer to the truth of what is actually happening on the ground (multiply each observation by 1000 or so).

My guess is that the taxi drivers at Suv. Airport know more about tourism than the people the govt. hires to track tourism. One driver told me that tourism was down........he said most of the tourists were from Russia and China....and that most were going to Phuket (first), Pattaya (second) and Bangkok (third).

Given this, one would expect better tourism statistics in Phuket than at other locations.....also Pattaya. If true, then a downward trend in tourism in Pattaya would be an ominous sign......even more ominous would be a downward trend in Phuket.....probably the last place in Thailand to be hard hit (of course, if the violence in the south spread to Phuket, then you can forget about it........reality check).

As I said previously, on my last trip to Pattaya (about two months ago), many shop owners told me that business was down from the same period last year. I saw lots of concrete coffins (the condos that are portrayed as paradise by the sea...ha ha ha) for sale.....other concrete coffin buildings that were supposed to be under construction had no workers.

I would not buy any real estate in this market or start a business...and right now I want to start a business and hire Thais, but Cambodia and Vietnam seem like better alternatives for business.

Too bad.......all the govt. has to do is roll back the xenophobic-induced visa/business changes to what they were in the mid-to-late 90s and things would be better.

And if they would change the business rules in a way that would make small scale investment an easy process for foreigners.........the economy would take off........and many good jobs would be created.

Instead, those that rule want to keep the bottom 99% of the population working like slaves for the top 1% of the population. And they want to prevent foreigners from competing with them. It is a recipe for disaster.

I agree 100%. Every where I go i talk to business owners and many start the conversation with me. Business is down. In the handicrafts industry people tell me it is down any where from 60% to 80%. This is not only a measure of failing exports but of the lack of tourist both foreign and thai. In the past you would have tour buses full of thais stopping at Ban Tawai every day. Now it is empty.

Many thais are losing their jobs.

In the ceramics industry many factories are closed.

I have talked to many shipping companies that come to my factory trying to drum up business. This has never happened before. In the past it was always by word of mouth or they would send something by email. Never before have so many taken the time to come by my factory unasked.

I believe you are correct in that the gov is trying to portray that nothing is wrong. We will see. This month is the start of the high season for Chiang Mai.

[Ulysses G.]

I believe you are correct in that the gov is trying to portray that nothing is wrong. We will see. This month is the start of the high season for Chiang Mai.

Maybe for YOUR business.

For mine, August and September are the worst months of the year and high season starts slowly building from October.

[qualtrough]

A couple of anecdotal observations to add my two cents worth, make of them what you will:

Obs. 1: Last week I went down to the advanced booking room at Hualomphong to buy some tickets at lunchtime. There was nobody waiting in the room, and I was able to walk right up. I have never seen that before.

Obs. 2: Stayed at a small resort outside Kao Yai on Sunday night. OK, Sunday and slow season, but outside of a couple that showed up around 10 PM we were the ONLY guests in a place that has 50 or more rooms.

[JR Texas]

Haven't seen a real increase in folks coming into our shops for secured loans. Usually when the economy takes a serious dip, or even when things are booming, will see an uptrend both ways. I wouldn't say down, but somewhat stagnant. Thank goodness that interest doesn't sleep.

Check out the night bazaar. Many shops in the night bazaar for rent. Why ? >>>>>no people.

Bor Song >>>>>no people.

Ban Tawai>>>>>no people.

I know of 2 shipping companies that closed last week. One of which was a pretty big company.

A couple of my suppliers that were pretty big are now closed.

Not only are the Foreign tourist down in chiang mai but the thai tourist also. Usually it starts picking up towards the end of May. The Night Bazaar was dead last night.

JR Texas: Personally I think the official statistics are officially misleading. I think personal observations on this thread are probably closer to the truth of what is actually happening on the ground (multiply each observation by 1000 or so).

My guess is that the taxi drivers at Suv. Airport know more about tourism than the people the govt. hires to track tourism. One driver told me that tourism was down........he said most of the tourists were from Russia and China....and that most were going to Phuket (first), Pattaya (second) and Bangkok (third).

Given this, one would expect better tourism statistics in Phuket than at other locations.....also Pattaya. If true, then a downward trend in tourism in Pattaya would be an ominous sign......even more ominous would be a downward trend in Phuket.....probably the last place in Thailand to be hard hit (of course, if the violence in the south spread to Phuket, then you can forget about it........reality check).

As I said previously, on my last trip to Pattaya (about two months ago), many shop owners told me that business was down from the same period last year. I saw lots of concrete coffins (the condos that are portrayed as paradise by the sea...ha ha ha) for sale.....other concrete coffin buildings that were supposed to be under construction had no workers.

I would not buy any real estate in this market or start a business...and right now I want to start a business and hire Thais, but Cambodia and Vietnam seem like better alternatives for business.

Too bad.......all the govt. has to do is roll back the xenophobic-induced visa/business changes to what they were in the mid-to-late 90s and things would be better.

And if they would change the business rules in a way that would make small scale investment an easy process for foreigners.........the economy would take off........and many good jobs would be created.

Instead, those that rule want to keep the bottom 99% of the population working like slaves for the top 1% of the population. And they want to prevent foreigners from competing with them. It is a recipe for disaster.

I agree 100%. Every where I go i talk to business owners and many start the conversation with me. Business is down. In the handicrafts industry people tell me it is down any where from 60% to 80%. This is not only a measure of failing exports but of the lack of tourist both foreign and thai. In the past you would have tour buses full of thais stopping at Ban Tawai every day. Now it is empty.

Many thais are losing their jobs.

In the ceramics industry many factories are closed.

I have talked to many shipping companies that come to my factory trying to drum up business. This has never happened before. In the past it was always by word of mouth or they would send something by email. Never before have so many taken the time to come by my factory unasked.

I believe you are correct in that the gov is trying to portray that nothing is wrong. We will see. This month is the start of the high season for Chiang Mai.

JR to WolfmanJack: Good post........as an aside, it is amazing to me (Amazing Thailand) how much pain Thais are willing to take before they explode.

Having spent many years here, I know that most Thais will do the Mai Pen Rai thing over and over and over and over, etc. But, when they finally explode, they REALLY EXPLODE! It is like being around a wild animal.......(no offense).

One factor that keeps the 99% of the slaves in check is the control of the mainstream mass media by the 1% of the elites (men and women at the top of the corporate-political-military triangle of power). They are very good at controlling the flow of information (same as in the USA and same all over).

Another factor, perhaps a bit more sensitive (no offense please), is religion. It keeps the masses distracted from the real source of their problems and provides them with a place where they can act out solutions (without threatening the elites).

It also keeps their minds centered on emotion as opposed to reason (so scientific findings have no impact on them............think Al Gore just wrote a book about this).

Also, the ruling elite love the fact the masses worldwide are clinging to religion and paying little attention to science because that makes cooperation difficult.

I think something new is happening in Asia........the internet is becoming a threat to those that want to keep the masses ignorant of reality (that is why they are trying to censor it). Young people are changing........their beliefs are changing......they may, at some point in the future, realize the level of BS that they have been presented with and how it is designed to turn them into "grinning robots" whose main function is to work their entire lives for slave wages in order to enrich the top 1% of the population (same problem as in the USA).

Their other function is to produce more grinning robots (lots more) to magnify the labor supply problem and keep wages down and labor competition high..........also helping to enrich those at the top. That is why not one politician on the planet is making reducing population levels a number one priority. They work for the corporations and the corporations want a large population of disposable workers/slaves on a global scale.

At some point all hel_l might break lose..........who knows? I am constantly amazed at how easy it is for the ruling elite to control the masses, at how willing the grinning robot slaves are to learn what they need to know to exploit themselves, at how willing the grinning robot slaves are to work for slave wages for a small group of extremely rich people, and at how much pain the grinning robot slaves are willing to take before taking action.

As an American, I long for the days when people like Thomas Jefferson had the courage to say "enough is enough." OK, end of tome.

[ThaiGoon]

From time to time, the manure I read on here does make me laugh.

[JR Texas]

From time to time, the manure I read on here does make me laugh.

JR Texas to ThaiGoon: Always informative TG. So, what I am saying is shit and it makes you laugh. Well, laughing is good for you. Maybe this will make you die of laughter (just some silly research I did the other day to show how great things are):

DAILY COST OF FEEDING A DAIRY COW

In order to provide milk, butter and cheese for hungry Americans, dairy farmers in the USA spend an average of $4.13 per cow per day on feed (milking ration).

(data from 2006, http://www.das.psu.edu/user/dairy/newslett...cfm?newsID=842)

ABOUT THREE BILLION PEOPLE ON PLANET EARTH (ROUGHLY 50 PERCENT OF HUMANITY) LIVE ON LESS THAN TWO DOLLARS PER DAY, LESS THAN HALF OF WHAT WE SPEND ON A COW!

IS THIS PROGRESS?

But, facts aside, perhaps you can tell us if Thailand is down or not.

[bendix]

Afraid I agree with Thaigoon. Most of this thread is facile nonsense. Thailand's economy is doing fine - not booming, not tanking. Like all economies, certain sectors are sluggish while others are doing very nicely thank you. To base your judgement of a country's conditions on some of the bizarre anecdotes i see in here is bizarre.

[ThaiGoon]

Yep true krab khun Bendix. The economy is a bit sluggish right now, but I believe it will soon pick up (within a year from now at the latest I'm sure.)

And JRTexas, if you want to bring up that kind of number, please keep in mind that cost of living does vary from country to country. Four bucks in America is not gonna buy the same amount of goods as it does in Thailand. Just take a look at Thailand GDP per capita and PPP per capita numbers.

[JR Texas]

Yep true krab khun Bendix. The economy is a bit sluggish right now, but I believe it will soon pick up (within a year from now at the latest I'm sure.)

And JRTexas, if you want to bring up that kind of number, please keep in mind that cost of living does vary from country to country. Four bucks in America is not gonna buy the same amount of goods as it does in Thailand. Just take a look at Thailand GDP per capita and PPP per capita numbers.

JR Texas to ThaiGoon: Yes, it varies.......and I am sure that you and the vast majority of Thais would be happy to live on less than the cost of feeding a dairy cow in America.

Thailand's statistics are misleading. Poverty is down, right? Great news, right? In 2002 the national poverty line was 922 baht per person per month.........give me a break. The poverty bar is set too low in order to make things look better than they actually are.

Unemployment is down, right? Great news, right? In Thailand if you work for just one hour per month the govt. considers you fully employed. The unemployment measurement is set in a way that makes the employment picture much better than it actually is.

Tourism is fine, right? I do not think so. Who produces the official figures? Do they have any motivation for making the figures look much better than they actually are?

When official statistics are misleading, you often have to resort to personal observations to get a feel for what is actually happening on the ground. With the exception of your informative and constructive post, I think many of the previous posts are reflecting reality on the ground.

The future will decide who is right or wrong or if we are both partially right.

[chinthee]

Yep true krab khun Bendix. The economy is a bit sluggish right now, but I believe it will soon pick up (within a year from now at the latest I'm sure.)

And JRTexas, if you want to bring up that kind of number, please keep in mind that cost of living does vary from country to country. Four bucks in America is not gonna buy the same amount of goods as it does in Thailand. Just take a look at Thailand GDP per capita and PPP per capita numbers.

JR Texas to ThaiGoon: Yes, it varies.......and I am sure that you and the vast majority of Thais would be happy to live on less than the cost of feeding a dairy cow in America.

Thailand's statistics are misleading. Poverty is down, right? Great news, right? In 2002 the national poverty line was 922 baht per person per month.........give me a break. The poverty bar is set too low in order to make things look better than they actually are.

Unemployment is down, right? Great news, right? In Thailand if you work for just one hour per month the govt. considers you fully employed. The unemployment measurement is set in a way that makes the employment picture much better than it actually is.

Tourism is fine, right? I do not think so. Who produces the official figures? Do they have any motivation for making the figures look much better than they actually are?

When official statistics are misleading, you often have to resort to personal observations to get a feel for what is actually happening on the ground. With the exception of your informative and constructive post, I think many of the previous posts are reflecting reality on the ground.

The future will decide who is right or wrong or if we are both partially right.

JR Texas, I think part of the reason you get involved in these slugging matches is you should consider toning down your hyperbole. You have a number of valid points and you would be taken more seriously if you would omit conspiracy theories and far left ranting.

[JR Texas]

Yep true krab khun Bendix. The economy is a bit sluggish right now, but I believe it will soon pick up (within a year from now at the latest I'm sure.)

And JRTexas, if you want to bring up that kind of number, please keep in mind that cost of living does vary from country to country. Four bucks in America is not gonna buy the same amount of goods as it does in Thailand. Just take a look at Thailand GDP per capita and PPP per capita numbers.

JR Texas to ThaiGoon: Yes, it varies.......and I am sure that you and the vast majority of Thais would be happy to live on less than the cost of feeding a dairy cow in America.

Thailand's statistics are misleading. Poverty is down, right? Great news, right? In 2002 the national poverty line was 922 baht per person per month.........give me a break. The poverty bar is set too low in order to make things look better than they actually are.

Unemployment is down, right? Great news, right? In Thailand if you work for just one hour per month the govt. considers you fully employed. The unemployment measurement is set in a way that makes the employment picture much better than it actually is.

Tourism is fine, right? I do not think so. Who produces the official figures? Do they have any motivation for making the figures look much better than they actually are?

When official statistics are misleading, you often have to resort to personal observations to get a feel for what is actually happening on the ground. With the exception of your informative and constructive post, I think many of the previous posts are reflecting reality on the ground.

The future will decide who is right or wrong or if we are both partially right.

JR Texas, I think part of the reason you get involved in these slugging matches is you should consider toning down your hyperbole. You have a number of valid points and you would be taken more seriously if you would omit conspiracy theories and far left ranting.

JR Texas to Chinthee: Thanks for the advice........sometimes I get pissed off.....but it is important to state reality as you see it, right? The far left ranting/conspiracy theories are, in my view, on target and many people would not characterize them as being "far left" or "conspiratorial."

The vast majority of employees at the UN would no doubt agree with my observations about the extent of poverty in the world.

Noam Chomsky, Ben Bagdigian, Albert Einstein, C. Wright Mills, among others, would no doubt agree with my observations about the ruling elite using the mainstream media to control the masses.

I can assure you, what I am saying is not beyond the real of reality.

BUT, maybe I should cool it.........this is an internet forum. I will try to be more "political."

[wolfmanjack]

I believe you are correct in that the gov is trying to portray that nothing is wrong. We will see. This month is the start of the high season for Chiang Mai.

Maybe for YOUR business.

For mine, August and September are the worst months of the year and high season starts slowly building from October.

I was thinking more of the tourist season but my export orders should start coming in this month for people wanting goods for xmas. If the product is to be in Europe or the USA by the end of October it has to ship by the end of September.

For the tourist season according to my sisters in law that own 5 shops between them at the night bazaar and have been there for over 10 years, May is the worst month of the year. They say it starts in June and builds towards December and January then tapers off until Songkran. Then dies until June again. By the way they say this last high season was the worse ever for them.

[Khun ?]

Many losers have someone or something else to blame for their problems.

Too much time sitting around getting fat is much of their problem.

5% of the U.S. population pay 70% of the taxes.

It may be smarter in the US to be lazy asses and let the government provide medical and other bennies to include housing and food. Too many will not save and wait for something and go into

debt needlessly then blame everyone else for their stupidity.

A penny saved can be a dollar earned if you are smart enough.

[chuchok]

Afraid I agree with Thaigoon. Most of this thread is facile nonsense. Thailand's economy is doing fine - not booming, not tanking. Like all economies, certain sectors are sluggish while others are doing very nicely thank you. To base your judgement of a country's conditions on some of the bizarre anecdotes i see in here is bizarre.

while I have no exact figures (And can't be buggered doing a search! )The exports here must be down.If they are not down,then they would be taking a big drop in margins.Exchange rate is too high.

[Dakhar]

Unemployment is down, right? Great news, right? In Thailand if you work for just one hour per month the govt. considers you fully employed. The unemployment measurement is set in a way that makes the employment picture much better than it actually is.

One hour per month = fully employed..... why does that not shock me?

[Dakhar]

Many losers have someone or something else to blame for their problems.

Too much time sitting around getting fat is much of their problem.

5% of the U.S. population pay 70% of the taxes.

It may be smarter in the US to be lazy asses and let the government provide medical and other bennies to include housing and food. Too many will not save and wait for something and go into

debt needlessly then blame everyone else for their stupidity.

A penny saved can be a dollar earned if you are smart enough.

Yep, one of the reasons I wanted out of the US