Thailand Is Down...

[ZukiSuzuki]

I certainly am not seeing it ... business seems to be very strong everywhere I go. The few folks that can't manage to scrape together a few $$'s to get a real visa aren't going to be missed that badly.

Because of-course the quality of a person can be calculated based on there financial net worth.

[ZukiSuzuki]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?

I used to have quite a few Japanese friends in Bangkok - they have all left. Their companies down-sized and they went to work in India.

I'm not suggesting that all the Japanese have left, but many have. They were telling me two years ago that India was the next big expanaion area for the Japanese. - Not all, of course.

JRTexas makes many valid points, I think.

It's a slowdown, at the least. Probably due to combined reasons.

There are more Japanese people in Thailand now than any other time since world war II.

[Mid]

Imports slide amid low investor confidence

Thailand's current account surplus unexpectedly widened in January as sliding confidence curbed imports of machinery and consumer goods.

Official data released yesterday showed the surplus rose to $1.54 billion from $1.22 billion in December. The figure was the biggest since January 2000, and the third straight month above $1 billion. Economists had expected a $1-billion surplus.

''Imports slowed significantly as falling investments cut purchases of machinery and equipment,'' said Amara Sriphayak, senior director of the domestic economy department at the Bank of Thailand.

''Business confidence continues to drop on political concerns and a strong baht.''

Consumer and business confidence have declined amid policy reversals and political squabbles in the military-installed government.

The Post Publishing Public Co., Ltd. 2007

the signs are everywhere ,

ignore them at your peril

[Heng]

The is the advise from the UK Foriegn Office for prospective travelers to Thailand

* We advise against all but essential travel to, or through, the far southern provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla, where there is continuing violence due to insurgency and civil unrest. Since January 2004, there have been regular attacks including bombings and shootings. Most recently, on 18 and 19 February 31 bombs exploded in the far southern provinces. The Thai Government has declared a serious state of emergency in the provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat.

* There is a high threat from terrorism throughout Thailand. Attacks could be indiscriminate and against civilian targets in public places including places frequented by foreigners.

The number of attempted bombings is a lot higher than the one's that filter through the media. Have several friends of the family in the RTP's K-9 and Bomb Squad unit that have been on assignment in the south for more than 2 years. The avg. daily "workload" is diffusing 5-10 bombs PER DAY (for his unit and station... not even for the entire region) that do not go off. The good news is that most don't go off. The bad news is that the bad guys are no doubt going to only get better and better at this. Hazzard pay = 5,500 extra Baht a month.

[terry57]

I am no expert - but here is my half penny worth

A friend from Malta who before has come twice a year, this time says he is not coming again -- Pattaya dead.

Another went on a visa run to Cambodia -- people more friendly than Pattaya -- he is going there in future.

A very large Short Time Bar which before was always crowded with golfers in the afternoon -- for the last three weeks has only had three or four customers and many of the girls are saying they are going homeat the end of the month

Many rooms for rent which I cannot remember seeing in this area at theis time of year before.

A Thai owned food business -- the owner says they he is not getting the customers that he had before -- he reckons his takings down by 60% -- He wants to sell as he is unable to continue paying the rent -- Bars that four months agao were for sale at 3 million now priced at half than but still no buyers

aah, I hate to say I told you so but ........

The above comment mirrors what I've been saying (and getting flamed for) for months.

On the other hand, Cambodia and Vietnam's tourism industries are thriving, as is the inflow of foreign capital to their markets.

It's simple; Thailand has shot itself in the foot. It doesn't need Farangs?

As we know, once a place goes cold and your competitors pick up the ball and run with it (in this case VN,Cambo & Malaysia) it takes a very long time, if at all, to recover.

Told us what? That you can't hack it in Thailand? What do you think will happen in VN and Cambodia once the locals get fed up with the 'Ugly' Americans, Brits, Germans,Aussies, etc........the Cambodian smiles will disappear just as they have here in many places. There will come a day when expats will flock 'back' to Thailand because of the unfriendly Cambodian locals.......everything cycles. Meanwhile, I'll still be here.....in RURAL Thailand.....the real Thailand.

its beyond me why some people think that cambodia is the next big thing.

the place is wracked with poverty and god help you if you get real sick and need a proper hospital.

i feel that the few people that say thailand is going down the gurgler need to go back to farang land as there time in los is finished.

im not critisising the naysayers but only passing an observation.

as mr blues has stated, all things cycle, thailand will cycle and then return to its normal state and things will carry on as normal.

western countries cycle as well so its not a new phenomenon.

there two distinct groups we are dealing with here regards there opinions on los.

1. = business people

2. = retired people.

some of the business people are having a big spit and want to leave.

the self funded retiries are complaining about exchange rates and i can understand why.

anyway its all a load of bollicks as los is los and id rather live here than in cambodia.

thank you very much.

[raro]

Imports slide amid low investor confidence

The Post Publishing Public Co., Ltd. 2007

the signs are everywhere ,

ignore them at your peril

I work in the freight industry and I can assure you this applies also to the exports; due to the high Baht, I suspect.

I talked to a well established contract lawyer yesterday, he did not even have an enquiry in the whole month of March!

[Mid]

BOT likely to revise GDP forecast downward

March 31, 2007 : Last updated 06:21 pm (Thai local time)

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is likely to cut Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) forecast this year from the current estimate of 45 per cent because of weak private investment and domestic consumption.

talking it up is nothing new ..............................

[Gary A]

I won't speculate as to why but things DO appear to be really slow in Bangkok. A friend of mine called me the other night and wanted to know where to go in Washington Square. He said everywhere was quiet. I told him the bar most likely to be busy and he told me that's where he was at and that he was the only customer. I live up country in the boonies so I can't see any difference since nothing ever happens here.

[kratindaeng]

I live in a nice condo, the dog next door (a shi-ztu, or whatever the flea bitten ratbag is) likes to bark all day long telling me in a dog like whisper 'Thailand is not Down!' its just you small minded farang who keep moaning all day long! If you dont like it than <deleted> off! I felt quite shocked upon hearing the small dog barking this, any comments?

[terry57]

I live in a nice condo, the dog next door (a shi-ztu, or whatever the flea bitten ratbag is) likes to bark all day long telling me in a dog like whisper 'Thailand is not Down!' its just you small minded farang who keep moaning all day long! If you dont like it than <deleted> off! I felt quite shocked upon hearing the small dog barking this, any comments?

yes,

i heard that dog barking as well mate and im in perth at the moment.

very smart dog though and very insightful.

thank you very much Mr Daeng and a big hello to the dog.

[kratindaeng]

I have lived in Thailand for four years, and have also come on two holidays per year for ten years prior to that.

I go "out" about once every three months, and tonight was one of those days. I went to three or four of the big tourist spots in Bangkok and was very very surprised.

Empty.

Not 100% empty, but around 90% empty - It's a Friday night and I have never seen things like this before. The Thais were dumbfounded, had the music and electricity half off, were sitting around looking depressed, and, when questioned had no answers. They did say "If the lack of tourists continues then we will go bust within 4 - 6 weeks." - these were the busy places!

Thinking about it:-

1) I got offered three jobs this week, from people that wouldn't usually speak to me.

2) I booked a holiday for next week, and in varoius hotels (Samui, Lanta, Chang) was offered the cheap rate instead of the hoiliday period rate. - that's a 70% discount.

My feeling is that things have shifted. I've physically seen it (I think) rather than the talk of - the government policies, blah blah, nationalism, blah blah, safety issues, blah blah, etc, blah blah.

Is it starting?

1) I got offered three jobs this week, from people that wouldn't usually speak to me.

Well I need a job so If theres a decent one going, preferably not a gay massage boy type thing, I am more than willing to 'lend a hand' 3 jobs? my arse! 555555

KD

[kratindaeng]

I live in a nice condo, the dog next door (a shi-ztu, or whatever the flea bitten ratbag is) likes to bark all day long telling me in a dog like whisper 'Thailand is not Down!' its just you small minded farang who keep moaning all day long! If you dont like it than <deleted> off! I felt quite shocked upon hearing the small dog barking this, any comments?

yes,

i heard that dog barking as well mate and im in perth at the moment.

very smart dog though and very insightful.

thank you very much Mr Daeng and a big hello to the dog.

no probs, shi-ztu seems to be munchin on a few teachers visas bone now....

KD

[qualtrough]

I am not saying that the economy is not slowing down, but there is another factor that might come into play in the OP's original post. I didn't see it mentioned earlier, but if I missed it sorry for repeating it here. Here it is: The majority of Thais live from paycheck to paycheck. When the end of the month comes around they are broke or almost broke. Thus the month is like a clock winding down for spending. You can see the difference by visiting a shopping mall like Future Park the weekend just before the end of the month, and the weekend after the end of the month. Huge difference. I believe the OP said he hadn't been out for 3 months, and that he visited a local place rather than a tourist place. If that is the case then the difference he noted might be due to what I just mentioned. He should go to the same places next Friday and report back.

[LaoPo]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?

Biggest problem is the Baht against the Yen..............second, even 1 year ago , all stuff you can buy in turist areas are cheaper here in Japan.

Ofcourse the Bombs and the muslims have a big impact.......Japanese want security , if not they stay home......in safe Japan.

I see, that's why you got your tickets...

WELL WELL WELL LaoPOOOOH always fast to pick on someone.......I got my tickets, because we DO like Thailand, OK ?? and for many other reasons , OK ?? NOW peace & love

I was talking Europe before, sorry.

LaoPo

"LaoPooooooh ...always fast to pick on someone..." How long have you known me.... ?

Sir, I wasn't picking on you and never intented to do so.

You explained the -possible- reasons as why you could have bought your tickets from Japan-BKK vv since you said also that it was normally impossible during that special period and that you had to book 6 months in advance.

That's why I wrote "I see, that's why you got your tickets......"

Nothing more, nothing less. I humbly suggest you think first before you write, especially if your name is "Master of the Court'

Have a good day.

LaoPo

[roblin]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

Another broke Farang bites the dust, see ya....

Not exactly "biting the dust". Just going to spend his money somewhere else. Hope this helps....

Yes. I am far from broke. Ive made around $10k/month(online) for the last year so I will leave Thailand more rich than I was when I came. Just wanted to tell the story of a "quality" tourist leaving. My impact is small, but a bunch more of me:s and a lot less money stops circulating.

[jasreeve17]

I am not saying that the economy is not slowing down, but there is another factor that might come into play in the OP's original post. I didn't see it mentioned earlier, but if I missed it sorry for repeating it here. Here it is: The majority of Thais live from paycheck to paycheck. When the end of the month comes around they are broke or almost broke. Thus the month is like a clock winding down for spending. You can see the difference by visiting a shopping mall like Future Park the weekend just before the end of the month, and the weekend after the end of the month. Huge difference. I believe the OP said he hadn't been out for 3 months, and that he visited a local place rather than a tourist place. If that is the case then the difference he noted might be due to what I just mentioned. He should go to the same places next Friday and report back.

I understand your point.

But, then again, Thais get paid just before the end of the month, thus they would all have been flush with money last night, which may have been the case. I don't know because I went to tourist areas. - which were devoid of people.

I'm only allowed out once every three months or so, thus I won't be able to report back next week.

[jasreeve17]

Terry57 - Please don't use this thread for another one of your I LOVE THAILAND rants........

We know that you love Thailand and everything about the place.

We know.

We know.

We FARKIN well KNOW!!!

[JimsKnight]

I welcome a slowdown and areas being quieter, some areas of Thailand are pretty much overrun with Farang running riot!

I feel for the business' but too many cooks spoil the broth!

[simcity]

I agree on the first post 'Thailand is down', what I can see is the lack of customers in the shops around my area ( not tourist ) but Thai are not spending !

All of my friends who have business are complaining from the situation.

Reading the Bangkok post this morning I rarely see so many properties advertise!

If some said everything is ok , they must be blind .

[meadish_sweetball]

I think the major factor here is that this is the high point of the low season.

All other factors like visa rules, political situation, baht strength, bombs and haze do weigh in as well. But not as much as one might think.

Come April, it will pick up again, around Songkran. And once in late May, watch the wheels start to spin back to normal.

[jdinasia]

Much Ado about nothing ..... I doubt 'tourist' numbers are down ...

I have to revise the statement that I don't personally know anyone that has been affected by the new Visa enforcement .... I do! I know one <yes ONE> guy without a workpermit that teaches English that is being affected ... but the guy cannot put one coherent sentence together in ANY language.

[bingobongo]

terry57,

i only hope your mid life crisis breaks soon and you become more lucid, maybe the you will be coherent in your postings.

peace

Edited March 31, 2007 by bingobongo

[Master of the court]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?

Biggest problem is the Baht against the Yen..............second, even 1 year ago , all stuff you can buy in turist areas are cheaper here in Japan.

Ofcourse the Bombs and the muslims have a big impact.......Japanese want security , if not they stay home......in safe Japan.

I see, that's why you got your tickets...

WELL WELL WELL LaoPOOOOH always fast to pick on someone.......I got my tickets, because we DO like Thailand, OK ?? and for many other reasons , OK ?? NOW peace & love

I was talking Europe before, sorry.

LaoPo

"LaoPooooooh ...always fast to pick on someone..." How long have you known me.... ?

Sir, I wasn't picking on you and never intented to do so.

You explained the -possible- reasons as why you could have bought your tickets from Japan-BKK vv since you said also that it was normally impossible during that special period and that you had to book 6 months in advance.No I wrote that normally you have to book 6 months before...................I didnt , just booked it last week and got them......thats why I now less Japanese are going to Thailand this time.

That's why I wrote "I see, that's why you got your tickets......" I thourgt you comment with irony about I said its more cheap and safe in Japan than tourist areas in Thailand.........

Nothing more, nothing less. I humbly suggest you think first before you write, especially if your name is "Master of the Court'

Have a good day.

OK laoPo , sorry....I do see what you mean now.......But it was easy to misunderstand (mostly because Im so used to read all these stupid comments from bored individuals, and I guess I was in a wrong mood this morning, sorry)

LaoPo

[kratindaeng]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?

Biggest problem is the Baht against the Yen..............second, even 1 year ago , all stuff you can buy in turist areas are cheaper here in Japan.

Ofcourse the Bombs and the muslims have a big impact.......Japanese want security , if not they stay home......in safe Japan.

I see, that's why you got your tickets...

WELL WELL WELL LaoPOOOOH always fast to pick on someone.......I got my tickets, because we DO like Thailand, OK ?? and for many other reasons , OK ?? NOW peace & love

I was talking Europe before, sorry.

LaoPo

"LaoPooooooh ...always fast to pick on someone..." How long have you known me.... ?

Sir, I wasn't picking on you and never intented to do so.

You explained the -possible- reasons as why you could have bought your tickets from Japan-BKK vv since you said also that it was normally impossible during that special period and that you had to book 6 months in advance.No I wrote that normally you have to book 6 months before...................I didnt , just booked it last week and got them......thats why I now less Japanese are going to Thailand this time.

That's why I wrote "I see, that's why you got your tickets......" I thourgt you comment with irony about I said its more cheap and safe in Japan than tourist areas in Thailand.........

Nothing more, nothing less. I humbly suggest you think first before you write, especially if your name is "Master of the Court'

Have a good day.

OK laoPo , sorry....I do see what you mean now.......But it was easy to misunderstand (mostly because Im so used to read all these stupid comments from bored individuals, and I guess I was in a wrong mood this morning, sorry)

LaoPo

Dear Master of the Court,

Are you balls fuzzy like Andy Murrays? Your name scares me....

[opothai]

in todays globalized world you must try and think of the country as a big business,

and to be perfectly frank with one another, is thailand running a good business with integrity, honesty, clarity and most of all stability.

on the tourist side of thier business world, they have been making things less attractive since the days of shutting bars at different times when ever some one feels the need for a crackdown or two,

on the personal side, six or seven of us used to come over at least three or four times a year from 1999, the last time we did this was 2005, the place has not improved. they have not reinvested money in cleaning up the tourist areas, i.e roads, clenliness, taxi rip offs, police rip offs etc.

i will still retire to thailand, and by the time i make the move i hope things will have improved.

here.s hoping

[t.s]

come or don't come. stay or go.

nobody really cares and there will always be someone to take your place

[Ulysses G.]

Today, I asked the front desk at the hotel where I usually stay for a fan because the room was so hot even with the tiny air-con at "full blast". I tried to take a nap today and just stayed awake sweating.

I was polite and just thought this would be easier than moving me to another room with another bad air conditioner as this hotel has mostly bad ones. I have had to do this before in the past. Anyway, she seemed to think that I was just complaining for fun and told me no fan.

I told her that there are plenty of hotels in Pattaya and that I would be moving to another one tomorrow.

She could care less, but I will end up with a much better hotel for a slightly higher price (they didn't tell me that they had raised the price since last time).

Mai Phen Rai can work BOTH ways!

[toptuan]

I went to three or four of the big tourist spots in Bangkok and was very very surprised. Empty.

I was curious right at the outset: What three big tourist spots did you visit?

I'm trying to figure out if "big" to you means historical sites (Rattanakosin Island), or entertainment districts (Silom), or well-known shopping venues (Paragon). Please amplify, if you would.

[opothai]

come or don't come. stay or go.

nobody really cares and there will always be someone to take your place

perfectly stated ts

thats exactly the thai attitude that really does need to improve somewhat,

running a business with an attitude like that will soon be the the downfall, then people will start to care when it is a bit late.

[Toptrainer]

QUOTE(t.s @ 2007-03-31 20:11:21)

come or don't come. stay or go.

nobody really cares and there will always be someone to take your place

perfectly stated ts

thats exactly the thai attitude that really does need to improve somewhat,

running a business with an attitude like that will soon be the the downfall, then people will start to care when it is a bit late.

Good point seems to be a main stay in TV if you have questions, doubts, or complaints about LOS leave. Well, seems now people are maybe the Thais will wise up before some of the people on TV do.

Quik story my landladies daughter and her American husband pulled thier factory out of Thailand and reopened it in China. he told me everything was just to hard. How many jobs and how much money was lost?

I guess some of you think that the above behavior is justified. Does Thailand really want everyone out or is it just the louts who have nothing constructive to add to the thread?