does the baht go down during tourist season

[yogavnture]

is their any reason to believe that the baht goes down against other currencys during december to april tourist season?  then after tourists go away the baht goes up?

[TheAppletons]

No.

[Senechal]

No. Tourism is a very tiny fraction of Thailand's economy despite the beliefs of many farangs.

 

And even if it weren't, why would it drive the baht down?

 

[ThomasThBKK]

10 minutes ago, Senechal said:

No. Tourism is a very tiny fraction of Thailand's economy despite the beliefs of many farangs.

 

And even if it weren't, why would it drive the baht down?

 

Quote

 According to the secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council speaking in 2019, the government projects that the tourism sector will account for 30% of Thailand's GDP by 2030, up from 20% in 2019

 

 

It's not a tiny fraction, it's absolutely giant part of thailands gdp, and that's just the direct part.

 

There's no reason for the BAHT to go down during high season, it's more like the opposite, more people are buying baht so it works as an upside instrument.

[SteveK]

33 minutes ago, Senechal said:

No. Tourism is a very tiny fraction of Thailand's economy despite the beliefs of many farangs.

 

Wrong. It's about 19-20% of the country's GDP so trillions of baht per year!

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, yogavnture said:

is their any reason to believe that the baht goes down against other currencys

Is their any reason to believe that Mc Donalds will stop sell hamburgers during the low season?

[RachaRob]

If the bhat did go down then the Thais would just raise their prices!

[Guderian]

All else being equal, the large influx of tourists during the high season will mean increased demand for the THB and so it's value should rise against the currencies of the visitors. That's economics 101, supply and demand of currencies. Of course, all else seldom is equal, so it's impossible to say exactly what will happen.

[Momofarang]

1 hour ago, TheAppletons said:

No.

But it will be at 30.06969 on February 7th, 2020.

[Senechal]

1 hour ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

 

It's not a tiny fraction, it's absolutely giant part of thailands gdp, and that's just the direct part.

 

There's no reason for the BAHT to go down during high season, it's more like the opposite, more people are buying baht so it works as an upside instrument.

Like I said, "despite the beliefs of many farangs"

 

1/5th is a tiny fraction my friend. (Not to mention that by other measures it's significantly less than that). Most farangs think Thailand has a tourist economy. It doesn't. It's an export economy.

 

Your future projections relevant to the discussion even if you like the numbers better.

 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Senechal

[uli65]

he's a dead loss

[1FinickyOne]

no... 

[Percy P]

2 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

No.

It  could go down if the Baht is not required,it works on supply and demand.More tourists more the demand. less tourists less the demand.

[Jane Dough]

I'm not sure about that. All I know is that having two kids my baht goes down at Xmas. 

 

Rooster

[Percy P]

2 hours ago, Senechal said:

No. Tourism is a very tiny fraction of Thailand's economy despite the beliefs of many farangs.

 

And even if it weren't, why would it drive the baht down?

 

.Tourism money is a big contribution to the Thai Foreign Reserve Account and at the moment greater then the GDP. Exports have fallen significantly over the last two years and foreign currencies against the Baht have lost their value. you can't lower the Baht to counteract other countries poor economy.

[Percy P]

3 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

No.

TheAppletons . Check your facts. Tourists money is added to the Thai Foreign Reserve Acc and at the moment is greater then the GDP of the countries GDP.

[Jaxxper]

No history of that at all that is related to seasons that I can see.

[Percy P]

1 hour ago, Senechal said:

Like I said, "despite the beliefs of many farangs"

 

1/5th is a tiny fraction my friend. (Not to mention that by other measures it's significantly less than that). Most farangs think Thailand has a tourist economy. It doesn't. It's an export economy.

 

Your future projections relevant to the discussion even if you like the numbers better.

 

But over the last two years export has dropped significantly ,it tourist money thats keeping the Thai Foreign Reserve Account high thus poor foreign exchange.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Percy P

[Fairynuff]

2 hours ago, Senechal said:

1/5th is a tiny fraction

Erm no it’s not, a tiny fraction might be 1/50th or 1/100th. But hey let’s not allow facts to get in the way of wanting to be right.

[Caine]

If we knew the answer to this ridiculous question we’d all be Multi billionaires. 

[Isaan sailor]

Ask Bank of Thailand that question.  Or better yet, the ChiComs.  Together, they seem to determine the amount of appreciation in the Baht vs. western currencies.

[brokenbone]

it used to be a good time to exchange right before new year and before april 1st, but i havnt kept up for many years

[brokenbone]

4 hours ago, Senechal said:

Like I said, "despite the beliefs of many farangs"

 

1/5th is a tiny fraction my friend. (Not to mention that by other measures it's significantly less than that). Most farangs think Thailand has a tourist economy. It doesn't. It's an export economy.

 

Your future projections relevant to the discussion even if you like the numbers better.

 

10% is universally the amount when its defined significant

[mshs]

Tourism is 10%-20% of GDP in Siam.  Globally 10%.

Oil - 3% globally, 0.9% USA, 15% Russia.

[saengd]

13 hours ago, Percy P said:

TheAppletons . Check your facts. Tourists money is added to the Thai Foreign Reserve Acc and at the moment is greater then the GDP of the countries GDP.

Adding currency to the foreign currency reserves alone does not in itself make the Baht increase in value, only additional purchases of THB against USD will accomplish that as will any increase in the current account surplus.

 

 

13 hours ago, Percy P said:

But over the last two years export has dropped significantly ,it tourist money thats keeping the Thai Foreign Reserve Account high thus poor foreign exchange.

Exports reached a record high of USD 22.4 bill. last year, in July this year they reached USD 22 bill., they have currently fallen to USD 19.x bill., an amount last seen in 2016. The two key drivers for THB strength are current account surplus and capital inflows, foreign currency reserves are a nice to have but don't materially affect the strength of the currency. FC Reserves are intended to reassure overseas exporters that Thailand can pay for overseas sourced goods and services, that is their primary function, they all act as a bellwether of the state of the economy.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

To answer the OP's question: There is a relationship between the value of THB and the value of the current account. THB does get stronger at the same time each year as the budget is distributed and the current account is at its lowest since budget money has been disbursed into the broader economy.

 

Finally, direct Tourism accounts for 21% of GDP in Thailand.

Edited December 23, 2019 by saengd

[yogavnture]

On 12/23/2019 at 1:53 AM, Matzzon said:

Is their any reason to believe that Mc Donalds will stop sell hamburgers during the low season?

yes no customers to eat them means low sales.  if you want to start a new thread go ahead in the food forum.

[yogavnture]

15 hours ago, saengd said:

Adding currency to the foreign currency reserves alone does not in itself make the Baht increase in value, only additional purchases of THB against USD will accomplish that as will any increase in the current account surplus.

 

 

Exports reached a record high of USD 22.4 bill. last year, in July this year they reached USD 22 bill., they have currently fallen to USD 19.x bill., an amount last seen in 2016. The two key drivers for THB strength are current account surplus and capital inflows, foreign currency reserves are a nice to have but don't materially affect the strength of the currency. FC Reserves are intended to reassure overseas exporters that Thailand can pay for overseas sourced goods and services, that is their primary function, they all act as a bellwether of the state of the economy.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

To answer the OP's question: There is a relationship between the value of THB and the value of the current account. THB does get stronger at the same time each year as the budget is distributed and the current account is at its lowest since budget money has been disbursed into the broader economy.

 

Finally, direct Tourism accounts for 21% of GDP in Thailand.

if 21 percent gdp is from tourism couldnt they manipulate the baht during high season

[yogavnture]

On 12/23/2019 at 1:53 AM, Matzzon said:

Is their any reason to believe that Mc Donalds will stop sell hamburgers during the low season?

yes  ,  fewer customers means fewer sales.  hope that answers your question.  

[Matzzon]

10 minutes ago, yogavnture said:

yes  ,  fewer customers means fewer sales.  hope that answers your question.  

Yes, you are right! Fewer customers means a drop in sales. Then, the availability of more customer do the opposite, right?

Can you then again, tell me why you would think the baht would drop when more customers travel to Thailand?
 

13 minutes ago, yogavnture said:

yes no customers to eat them means low sales.  if you want to start a new thread go ahead in the food forum.

Hmmm, I think you totally missed the concept. First it was not meant to be understood as anything that had to do with food. It was meant to be a comparision that you should read and understand in relation to the crazy thoughts that the baht would fall during a peak in tourism.

And then again you post that no customers means low sales. That´s not the problem regarding the baht and tourism. This is high season. It´s same like thinking you can buy a new laptop in Europe cheaper one week before christmas, than you can in the middle of the january sales.

[yogavnture]

On 12/23/2019 at 1:08 AM, ThomasThBKK said:

 

 

It's not a tiny fraction, it's absolutely giant part of thailands gdp, and that's just the direct part.

 

There's no reason for the BAHT to go down during high season, it's more like the opposite, more people are buying baht so it works as an upside instrument.

Thats what i meant that the baht is stronger during tourist season