Thailand faces a reality check

[hotchilli]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

a headcount that reflects all foreign arrivals including those on annual work or retirement visas as well as overland trips from Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Malaysia.

Also including all immigrant workers and migrating birds that fly overhead, and anything else that they can term as an arrival just to keep the figures high.

[madmitch]

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

You say "must" as though there's some empirical and compelling reason why, care to explain?

 

This aspect has been covered many times on TVF, if you look at the AOT report you'll see the numbers correlate to higher than TAT's figures. And since most land border traffic comprises mostly traders and merchants rather than tourists it would be silly to try and include them.

 

I agree the report does not distinguish between Thais and foreigners.

They would count cats and dogs crossing at the border if it got the numbers up!

 

Tourists at land boders are tourists. They fill in a TM6 form.

 

The airport figures come to just over 80m, that's 40m in and 40m out. Figures state that approximately 11m Thais travelled abroad in 2019. So that leaves a large shortfall....made up I would guess by land border crossings.

 

I've been reading TV for many years and you must be the only poster that believes that land border entries don;t count towards tourism figures.

[ChaiyaTH]

36 minutes ago, saengd said:

No, those people are called transit passengers, not arrivals.

They are not transits, they usually stay for a day or go via land borders as this is cheaper than a flight. 

 

But keep dreaming, maybe apply for a job with TAT.

 

I arrived over 7 times last year too. Even one would like to believe these numbers were real, clearly the tourists are invisible and in secret cities.

Edited January 18, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, Elkski said:

The numbers are really not important.   They need to somehow calculate this into $ spent.  They should also track things like if people will likely return or will they promote or trash Thailand  with friends and family and social  media.  

They should ask what are positive and negative  memories.  

 

All of the above would require:

1. Common sense.

2. Good reasoning.

3. Planning.

4. Competency.

5. Officials that care.

6. Humility, and the ability to learn from errors, and make course corrections, with that information.

7. An affection for foreigners, and the abolition of a decades long tendency to adhere to nationalistic policies, that are based on a total lack of substance and truth. 

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

They will continue to get more Indian tourists. But, as with the vast majority of Chinese, it will be lower class, and lower middle class tourists. Thailand just cannot attract higher end tourists anymore. T

 

Mate, I don't know what your problem is with the class system. You do know that there isn't class system in communist countries don't you?

 

Let's call them less affluent, right? They go home to the farm for new year with a huge wad of cash that they have earned over the last 12 months in the city, so they holiday within China.

 

The more well heeled will be travelling as a family unit, kids, four grand parents possibly a brother or sister or two. These already own property in Thailand. There's been enough foaming at the mouth on here about that. If they don't own, they might rent a villa to fit every in, it being more economical that way.

 

The younger ones, post-grads, the 25-30 year olds go in small groups, couples, gangs of four or five friends, classmates are forever in China. They want to avoid the family gathering because they get pilloried by their Grandma's, Auntie's, mother joins in about getting married, having girl/boyfriend, having babies, for days on end. They hop a plane to anywhere out of earshot.

 

That's the way it works. Nothing to do with a 'class' system. That's so 1950's.

 

No-one thinks Thailand is Monaco, Bermuda, Bahamas. Thailand is, and will remain, cheap and cheerful.

 

Despite the baht.

[saengd]

12 minutes ago, madmitch said:

They would count cats and dogs crossing at the border if it got the numbers up!

 

Tourists at land boders are tourists. They fill in a TM6 form.

 

The airport figures come to just over 80m, that's 40m in and 40m out. Figures state that approximately 11m Thais travelled abroad in 2019. So that leaves a large shortfall....made up I would guess by land border crossings.

 

I've been reading TV for many years and you must be the only poster that believes that land border entries don;t count towards tourism figures.

You're assuming TAT gets it's statistics solely from TM6's, that may not be correct. Counting TM6's is a pretty complex and time consuming task, even using today's technology. And TAT's been handing out these stats on tourist numbers long before Immigration computers were capable of providing totals and a breakdown of visitors. As stupid and incapable as you may think the tourist board is, even they will quickly realize that meaningful numbers are not are not easily attained by just counting bodies at border checkpoints and differentiating between traders and genuine tourists. If nothing else, if you were TA, you'd realize that the majority of tourists arrive by air and that getting airlines or AOT to pass you data would be more reliable and require less effort.

 

As said earlier, the fact that several tens of thousands of resident expats may take an overseas vacation and then return , a couple of times each year makes no meaningful difference to the totals.

 

.Lastly, a few months ago one poster made a very convincing case on these numbers not including land crossings, I'll try and dig it out.

[madmitch]

Just now, saengd said:

You're assuming TAT gets it's statistics solely from TM6's, that may not be correct. Counting TM6's is a pretty complex and time consuming task, even using today's technology. And TAT's been handing out these stats on tourist numbers long before Immigration computers were capable of providing totals and a breakdown of visitors. As stupid and incapable as you may think the tourist board is, even they will quickly realize that meaningful numbers are not are not easily attained by just counting bodies at border checkpoints and differentiating between traders and genuine tourists. If nothing else, if you were TA, you'd realize that the majority of tourists arrive by air and that getting airlines or AOT to pass you data would be more reliable and require less effort.

 

As said earlier, the fact that several tens of thousands of resident expats may take an overseas vacation and then return , a couple of times each year makes no meaningful difference to the totals.

 

.Lastly, a few months ago one poster made a very convincing case on these numbers not including land crossings, I'll try and dig it out.

Are you trying to say that the TAT is understating its figures?

 

Again, that would make you unique amongst TV members!

[Number 6]

4 hours ago, jesimps said:

Tourism may be down but it still took me an hour to drive into Pattaya from Phoenix Golf Course last Saturday evening. The roads were chocker with tour buses, I had to fight my way through mobs of Chinese and Russians strolling around and I couldn't get a table in the Beer Garden at the end of Walking Street. If you want to eat there these days, I'd advise you to get there before 6.30pm. I also did my 90 report at Jomtien a couple of weeks back and you couldn't move in the office. Arrived at about 10am and I was there for about 45 mins, everyone in front of me seemed to have problems, what's up with them? My report took about 30 secs as usual.

Yes, but it's Pattaya. Probably more busy than CW Bangkok (minus B visas). Throngs of tourists getting extensions and probably as many farang as on O visas in BKK, more.

 

When I lived there over a decade ago I completely avoided the place and just did visas runs. Of course that's not really possible any more.

[Magenta408]

Data is always being fudged. It's happening everywhere on this globe. Hard to believe anything but in this situation it had been a teeter-totter from one day to the next. Never a straight answer (NASA -ready for the moon)!

[Traubert]

44 minutes ago, madmitch said:

Are you trying to say that the TAT is understating its figures?

 

Again, that would make you unique amongst TV members!

Sensible? Level headed? Reasonable?

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

No, those people are called transit passengers, not arrivals.

They are arrivals if they clear immigration. As in arriving at swampy and leaving from DMK. Immigration has not released any data of the length of the stays. They do have it, it would show 0-1 day stays for those clearing the immigration and leaving ASAP on another flight. Same for quick visits over the land borders.

Edited January 18, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

58 minutes ago, saengd said:

You're assuming TAT gets it's statistics solely from TM6's, that may not be correct. Counting TM6's is a pretty complex and time consuming task, even using today's technology.

Luckily they have done that task: https://www.immigration.go.th/immigration_stats

 

I can see myself there too. Apparently I'm the only one of my nationality with a PE visa, the arrivals match mine.

[Duck J Butters]

2 hours ago, Elkski said:

The numbers are really not important.   They need to somehow calculate this into $ spent.  They should also track things like if people will likely return or will they promote or trash Thailand  with friends and family and social  media.  

They should ask what are positive and negative  memories.  

Exactly. Northern Phuket is exploding with people. I’ve never seen it this busy. Layan beach in Laguna must have 2000 people out on the beach today. Little Naithon Beach had at least 500 people last weekend. The kinds of tourists that stay in Northern Phuket are wealthy, white, family-oriented and big spenders. Don’t believe me, go see for yourselves. I mean my God, it’s 30,000 baht / night to stay at a lot of these places. These aren’t poor people and they are here in obscene numbers.
 

The only reality that I see is that Thailand is growing up and moving from a cheap tourist destination to a luxury tourist destination for families. Big big money is coming into Thailand. It really is obscene.

[SkyFax]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

 

All of the above would require:

1. Common sense.

2. Good reasoning.

3. Planning.

4. Competency.

5. Officials that care.

6. Humility, and the ability to learn from errors, and make course corrections, with that information.

7. An affection for foreigners, and the abolition of a decades long tendency to adhere to nationalistic policies, that are based on a total lack of substance and truth. 

According to 2019 UN data, this is a ranking of world countries by population with Thailand at 20 and the 10 below and 10 above.

Which countries do you think meet the above criteria?

10    Mexico    
11    Japan    
12    Ethiopia
13    Philippines    
14    Egypt    
15    Vietnam    
16    DR Congo    
17    Germany    
18    Turkey    
19    Iran    
*** 20    Thailand    
21    United Kingdom    
22    France    
23    Italy    
24    South Africa    
25    Tanzania    
26    Myanmar    
27    Kenya    
28    South Korea    
29    Colombia    
30    Spain

BTW Liechtenstein is # 216.    

[DrTuner]

17 minutes ago, Duck J Butters said:

Exactly. Northern Phuket is exploding with people. I’ve never seen it this busy. Layan beach in Laguna must have 2000 people out on the beach today. Little Naithon Beach had at least 500 people last weekend. The kinds of tourists that stay in Northern Phuket are wealthy, white, family-oriented and big spenders. Don’t believe me, go see for yourselves. I mean my God, it’s 30,000 baht / night to stay at a lot of these places. These aren’t poor people and they are here in obscene numbers.

I just looked into Phuket for a small holiday in February. I think the reason you see that demographic is that the only decent looking five star resorts are around that area. Other areas seemed overbuilt, badly maintained and worn out. So most of the affluent ones are cramming into the same area. 

 

EDIT: it's not that expensive though... from luxuryescapes, Paresa Resort. A bit more south but same idea: 

Edited January 18, 2020 by DrTuner

[JGV]

Increased numbers is irrelevant It's about spending money here and increased arrivals from China don't make up for high spending Europeans who are going elsewhere - Thai blindness and deafness isn't helping the empty hotels and bars

[Zack61]

23 hours ago, Roy Baht said:

Arrivals also include people who change planes on the way to Vietnam.

Or Cambodia. Or Laos. 

[meshborg]

Wake up and smell the Chang beer.Tourists are not coming like they once did.Maybe sort out health n safety,basic hygene and road safety first before worrying about tourist numbers.

[Ventenio]

Just say the number is 7,537,349,023 and there will be no more questions

[whooshbang]

7 hours ago, legend49 said:

What was that Nazi slogan from WW2 , keep telling the same lies for a while and people will believe you.

 

Or keep telling the same lies and you'll start believing them yourself.

 

[dcnx]

Reality check: Your neighbors are going to pass you by in the coming years. 
 

You had your chance and you took a dump all over everyone who came. 

[dcnx]

1 hour ago, Duck J Butters said:

Big big money is coming into Thailand. It really is obscene.

In some areas, yes. It’s crazy how high end some of the resorts are. It’s a niche market. However, it’s still a third world mess as soon as you leave the resort. 
 

One thing though is people with money have options so they might not return once they’ve seen it once. The world is big and there are endless luxury properties available.

[saengd]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

They are arrivals if they clear immigration. As in arriving at swampy and leaving from DMK. Immigration has not released any data of the length of the stays. They do have it, it would show 0-1 day stays for those clearing the immigration and leaving ASAP on another flight. Same for quick visits over the land borders.

The AOT report I posted earlier very clearly separates transit passengers from arrivals and does not include them in the totals.

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

The AOT report I posted earlier very clearly separates transit passengers from arrivals and does not include them in the totals.

There's transit and there's transit. One happens within the airport and is in the AOT report. One happens when you arrive at BKK and take a taxi to DMK to continue onwards. The one with the taxi trip counts as an arrival.

 

It's all about the definition of tourist. If TAT was honest, it'd crop away anyone staying for less than 48 hours. Then the figures might actually have some meaning.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, DrTuner said:

There's transit and there's transit. One happens within the airport and is in the AOT report. One happens when you arrive at BKK and take a taxi to DMK to continue onwards. The one with the taxi trip counts as an arrival.

 

It's all about the definition of tourist. If TAT was honest, it'd crop away anyone staying for less than 48 hours. Then the figures might actually have some meaning.

If the passenger passes through Immigration they are a tourist, even if they only stay here for, er, ahem, a short time!  Pun intended.

[saengd]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Luckily they have done that task: https://www.immigration.go.th/immigration_stats

 

I can see myself there too. Apparently I'm the only one of my nationality with a PE visa, the arrivals match mine.

I can't read Thai but I can see the report is useful, any chance of what the headline says for 2019?

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

I can't read Thai but I can see the report is useful, any chance of what the headline says for 2019?

Feel free to continue the investigation I started here: 

Member SPREX seemed to have some data I couldn't access so I hit the wall.

 

 

[saengd]

3 hours ago, madmitch said:

Are you trying to say that the TAT is understating its figures?

 

Again, that would make you unique amongst TV members!

People seem to be getting hung up on the number of 39 million rather than trying to determine what the number really is, 39 million is just a number, the actual number of tourists could be higher or lower, I don't know. But I will take a look over the next couple of days, time permitting, to try and zero in on a number that is supportable. I think if I was TAT I'd want to start with AOT figures and then factor in a fixed percentage for land crossings, stay tuned and I'll come back to you on this.

[bananafish]

On 1/17/2020 at 2:42 PM, Phuketshrew said:

Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

Because mosts people who come to Thailand on holiday don't get a tourist visa. 

[Rocket Hawks]

On 1/17/2020 at 3:34 PM, PatOngo said:

Reality has NEVER been one of their strong points! They are far removed.

Slowest high season ever yet Malaiwana Residences ( 113,000 baht / per 3 nights for cheapest rooms ) and most of Phuket that is not in the Patong area are fully booked. Only families and rich people traveling to Thailand now? Something seems fishy!!! What gives? http://www.booking.com/Share-axQZCjJ

Edited January 18, 2020 by Rocket Hawks