Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

[saengd]

51 minutes ago, WinnieTheKhwai said:

I hate to interrupt a good panic and mistrust of China, but you could also ignore China altogether and just look at actual reported cases in other countries.

 

The number is going up in a linear trend (not cubic or exponential as you might expect), with relatively few infections outside of China, and *really* few deaths.

 

If it was highly infections and very lethal then you would definitely know about it by now, without needing any information out of China.

 

Shame on you Winnie for interjecting with common sense, however am I going to sell all the tin foil hats I just bought.

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, saengd said:

Shame on you Winnie for interjecting with common sense, however am I going to sell all the tin foil hats I just bought.

Lol, I know the panic mongers have taken over the asylum.

 

Good news though, I went to Central Festival yesterday without a mask and I am still alive. 

 

 

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

Lol, I know the panic mongers have taken over the asylum.

 

Good news though, I went to Central Festival yesterday without a mask and I am still alive. 

 

 

You'll not make it to midnight, any last words?

[saengd]

Media in the West is now reporting that the Tencent figures may have been digitally altered by hackers, so much for China telling porkies and all the conspiracy theories.

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

You'll not make it to midnight, any last words?

Yes, 'At least I didn't become a forum moderator'.

 

The fact that those Chinese company figures were altered is unsurprising, the poor Chinese seem to be in a total panic, even more than Wavehunter and co here, and that's saying something.

[pgrahmm]

6 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Of course you can believe whatever you want and I respect your right to do so BUT there is incredibly strong evidence to support the belief that China is grossly under-reporting deaths in Wuhan (and even more importantly, in other cities and all provinces within China for the reasons I outlined before. 

 

As for rough mortality rate, while any discussion of mortality rate is invalid at this stage of the outbreak, it does serve as one useful benchmark to support my assertion that actual deaths are not being reported at all or being grossly under-reported by the Chinese government.

 

Consider this:  If the current benchmark for Wuhan City is 3% based on dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases (even though this is an invalid basis for computing mortality rate), the same benchmark "death rate" should be appearing for the other provinces BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE...not even close!

 

See for yourself:

 

Even in the case of Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces which all are approaching 1,000 confirmed cases, there are zero deaths being reported! 

 

If 3% is the benchmark, then one would expect the number of deaths being reported in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces to be around 28, yet they are both reported as ZERO !

 

Even given the lag time between the Wuhan outbreak and the outbreaks in the rest of China, there should still be a significant number of deaths in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces but the number is ZERO!

 

How do you explain that? 

 

I can't explain it any other way except that data is being suppressed!  I have a friend living in Guangzhou that has personally seen body bags being unloaded from a van at a crematorium (expired nCoV patients must be cremated) so I know FOR A FACT that zero deaths in Guangdong province is an outright lie!

 

I'm not going to waste my time or yours by getting into a debate about this.  My posts are merely intended to get others to really think objectively about what's going on right now in China and decide for themselves, not simply accept all the garbage that is coming out of China through the filter of the Central government.

This tallies with a report I read of body bags going straight to incinerators....No goodbyes or services.....They're being picked up in large trucks & burned as quickly as they can be moved....

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, pgrahmm said:

This tallies with a report I read of body bags going straight to incinerators....No goodbyes or services.....They're being picked up in large trucks & burned as quickly as they can be moved....

Yes, although ghoulish and obviously heart-breaking for their families and loved ones, immediate cremation seems to be necessary. 

 

What I have an issue with though is that this is happening not only in Wuhan but in provinces and cities all over China in greater than normal numbers, yet official statistics from the Chinese government is claiming zero deaths in many of those locations from nCov.  Something just doesn't add up. 

 

Obviously, the Chinese government is being far less than transparent, to put it politely.

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[onebir]

Some comments from epidemiologists here (not all negative):

https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavirus-pandemic-worst-case-scenario-is-ugly-experts-say?ref=scroll

[englishoak]

12 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Of course you can believe whatever you want and I respect your right to do so BUT there is incredibly strong evidence to support the belief that China is grossly under-reporting deaths in Wuhan (and even more importantly, in other cities and all provinces within China for the reasons I outlined before. 

 

As for rough mortality rate, while any discussion of mortality rate is invalid at this stage of the outbreak, it does serve as one useful benchmark to support my assertion that actual deaths are not being reported at all or being grossly under-reported by the Chinese government.

 

Consider this:  If the current benchmark for Wuhan City is 3% based on dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases (even though this is an invalid basis for computing mortality rate), the same benchmark "death rate" should be appearing for the other provinces BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE...not even close!

 

See for yourself:

 

Even in the case of Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces which all are approaching 1,000 confirmed cases, there are zero deaths being reported! 

 

If 3% is the benchmark, then one would expect the number of deaths being reported in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces to be around 28, yet they are both reported as ZERO !

 

Even given the lag time between the Wuhan outbreak and the outbreaks in the rest of China, there should still be a significant number of deaths in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces but the number is ZERO!

 

How do you explain that? 

 

I can't explain it any other way except that data is being suppressed!  I have a friend living in Guangzhou that has personally seen body bags being unloaded from a van at a crematorium (expired nCoV patients must be cremated) so I know FOR A FACT that zero deaths in Guangdong province is an outright lie!

 

I'm not going to waste my time or yours by getting into a debate about this.  My posts are merely intended to get others to really think objectively about what's going on right now in China and decide for themselves, not simply accept all the garbage that is coming out of China through the filter of the Central government.

Yes its a clear fabrication and the numbers are totally untrustworthy. Its mainly for the masses to keep people from panicing. Anyone with a bit of common sense and moderate understanding of statistics and medical outbreaks and disease can see at a glance these regional numbers make no sense...that can only be because they are false. 

[WaveHunter]

So, where are people purchasing face masks in Chiang Mai at reasonable prices (locally or online)?  I was able to purchase at reasonable prices on Lazada last month but not any more...all seem to be out of stock.

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[englishoak]

Chinas converted "hospital"  is ready... if you can call it that.

 

 

 

[Teak]

Depending on what you believe from what you read...China has now restricted the freedom of travel of 56 million people. The French are evacuating their Nationals to Changsha , about 500 km. away from Wuhan. Previously Central Government intended to encircle and close Changsha. My ex wife was in Changsha visiting her parents at that time and evacuated them to Dali (West of Kunming). Bangkok is reported to be the next major city (outside China) to be hit as there seems to be few restrictions on Chinese travel, except by the Chinese government. Speaking with my friend in Bangkok she says all Thai social media is ' abuzz' over this virus and concerned if the Thai Government officials quickly leave and close Bangkok residents from travel....if the virus progresses in Bangkok. She was also saying that there are so many Thailand born Chinese that no one can really tell who to worry about. All expats in Thailand should at least consider the possibilities of Thailand being added to the countries that airlines will stop landing at. At this moment this is an extreme consideration, but a consideration worth considering. I looked into getting my estranged Chinese wife out of China and back to Canada, but as she only holds a Canadian permanent resident card....she is no longer welcome.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

'Wuhan is told to round up infected residents for mass quarantine camps."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[WaveHunter]

JUST A NOTE OF SADNESS:  The Chinese doctor in Wuhan who was one of the first to try and get the word out through his social media account (WeChat) about how serious this virus actually is,  back in early December, and essentially silenced by the government for "disrupting the harmony of the People", has just died from nCoV. 

 

He was a 34-year-old ophthalmologist who first came in contact with the virus, after treating a glaucoma patient who at the time was not aware that he had already been infected with the deadly virus.

 

Dr. Li Wenliang, as well as many other brave doctors and journalists who tried to get the truth out in the early stages of this outbreak (and many still continue to do so) should all be considered brave heroes. 

 

Had Government officials taken him and the others seriously back in December instead of censoring them and even threatening arrest under the "Rumors Law", this crisis could likely have been averted.

 

RIP Dr Wenliang

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[eyecatcher]

Maybe aI am a bit naive on this subject but surely the WHO are in charge of this whole situation and as such are co ordinating virologists and the like all over the world to find an antidote.

 

I thought lessons had been learned when another communist Govt tried to keep the Chernobyl disaster under wraps until a radiation outpost in Sweden? just happened to be alerted by a change in wind direction.

[Bill97]

16 minutes ago, eyecatcher said:

...surely the WHO are in charge of this whole situation ....

I doubt the WHO has authority to tell anybody or any government what to do or not to do.  Why do you think they do?

[WaveHunter]

Can anybody answer?  Where to buy face masks in Chiang Mai right now at non price-gouging prices?

[Puwa]

Reading in the news that 1) there are 61 new cases in Japan on a single quarantined cruise ship; 2) the infection rate now doubling every 4 days (significantly quicker than the 6 that Hong Kong researchers had estimated); and 3) China is implementing truly draconian containment efforts in Wuhan, I find it very hard to accept the accuracy of Thailand's 25 cases.

 

 

[samuttodd]

am thinking that this virus is in S.America and Africa, although it is not currently reported there.

 

I am thinking that nobody is reporting it there yet because they are attributing it to either regular influenza or complications of other ailments.

 

If it has gotten loose in the western world,   I'd think it'd hammer someplace with little or no medical treatment available.   

 

Heard a clip of a Nurse from someplace in china having a recorded conversation (she didn't know it was being taped)    Basically said that in many places,  when people go to the hospital or clinic,   the doctors there are either dead or so sick that they can not see patients.

 

Apparently they have so many bodies that the e.r. Facilities have been turned into morgues.   The crematory teams are so backed up that they can't even get to the bodies.

 

[WaveHunter]

6 hours ago, eyecatcher said:

Maybe aI am a bit naive on this subject but surely the WHO are in charge of this whole situation and as such are co ordinating virologists and the like all over the world to find an antidote.

 

I thought lessons had been learned when another communist Govt tried to keep the Chernobyl disaster under wraps until a radiation outpost in Sweden? just happened to be alerted by a change in wind direction.

The WHO dropped the ball as well when they finally declared this a Global Emergency but at the same time bowed to pressure from China to add there "was no need to stop travel and trade with China", and even to word it in a very political way, stating that "anyone who would act against China in this way would be making a big mistake. 

 

Their job is not to to protect the economic interests of China; their job is to protect the safety and well-being of the global community!

 

They are currently organizing to get global experts into China to get a handle on this so that is a good thing, but their actions to date have made many people, including me lose all faith in the Organization's willingness or ability to act in a responsible and non-political manner.

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

6 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Can anybody answer?  Where to buy face masks in Chiang Mai right now at non price-gouging prices?

Something you could do if you are in a pinch is to re-use an old one after you give it a good soaking in Lysol inside and out and then let it dry in the sun COMPLETELY.   Be sure to let the sunlight hit it all day long...

Better than nout.

Edited February 7, 2020 by samuttodd

[WaveHunter]

8 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

Something you could do if you are in a pinch is to re-use an old on after you give it a good soaking in Lysol inside and out and then let it dry in the sun COMPLETELY.   Be sure to let the sunlight hit is all day long...

Better than nout.

I suppose; it's just hard to believe there are no masks available except from price-gougers.  I'm seeing some being offered for sale on Facebook Marketplace for outrageous asking prices like 150 baht for a single mask, when they normally are around 10 baht I guess! 

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, Puwa said:

Reading in the news that 1) there are 61 new cases in Japan on a single quarantined cruise ship; 2) the infection rate now doubling every 4 days (significantly quicker than the 6 that Hong Kong researchers had estimated); and 3) China is implementing truly draconian containment efforts in Wuhan, I find it very hard to accept the accuracy of Thailand's 25 cases.

 

 

Surprisingly, I think Thai officials are more on top of this then they are being given credit for, and they well should be acting strongly and decisively considering that,  outside of China, this is the country most likely for an outbreak to occur.

[Kelsall]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

Surprisingly, I think Thai officials are more on top of this then they are being given credit for, and they well should be acting strongly and decisively considering that,  outside of China, this is the country most likely for an outbreak to occur.

I don't think the Thai's have cut off flights from China yet.  Vietnam has.  Anyway there are lots of Chinese here in Chiang Mai as I write this.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Kelsall

[samuttodd]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWzrxc9MXQ4

 

A little good news about the virus as it comes to the US... At least better news than what happened in China. 

[Trujillo]

Wearing masks are not useful: 

 

WHO says masks no protection for healthy people

 

"How Big Are Coronavirus Particles?

The 2019 Novel Coronavirus, or 2019 nCoV, is a new respiratory virus first identified in Wuhan in China’s Hubei Province. Scientists have already taken electron microscope images to measure the size of coronavirus “virions” (or particles). The virions are spherical particles with diameters of approximately 125 nm (0.125 microns). The smallest particles are 0.06 microns, and the largest are 0.14 microns.

 

That makes the coronavirus particles smaller than PM2.5 particles, but bigger than some dust particles and gases."

Edited February 7, 2020 by Trujillo

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, Kelsall said:

I don't think the Thai's have cut off flights from China yet.  Vietnam has.  Anyway there are lots of Chinese here in Chiang Mai as I write this.

Yeah, I agree that flights continuing to come in from China are very troubling.  I don't understand the rationale behind that at all.  Thai Airways has cancelled flights with six Chinese cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Khun Ming,  Chengdu and Xiamen.  It would be nice to know why any inbound routes are still being flown,  but I can't find anything about the rationale behind that through Google searching.

 

However, those airlines still flying inbound routes seem to be taking extraordinary precautions including intensively disinfecting planes, conducting rigorous screenings and 14 day quarenteening.

 

Air travel aside however, Thailand seems to be well prepared for an outbreak should it occur.  It is ranked by Johns Hopkins University as the best prepared Asian country in the event of an outbreak, and sixth out of 165 countries globally.  It also ranked second in having a robust health system capable of treating the sick and protecting healthcare workers, and was ranked third in the prevention of the emergence or release of pathogens.

 

So, even though Thailand may be the most likely country outside of China for an outbreak, it also seems to be one of the best prepared. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[EricTh]

Some people are just too paranoid. To ban a country as huge as the USA or Europe is just silly.

 

That's just like stopping all flights from all of Europe just because London is the epicenter of a virus.

 

China has already lockdown the epicenter so it's quite safe in Thailand.

 

To make a comparison, it takes 73 England size countries to make one China.

 

[ukrules]

2 minutes ago, EricTh said:

China has already lockdown the epicenter so it's quite safe in Thailand.

They've locked down a lot more than that. I read that 400 million people are now locked down. New provinces and cities are being quarantined as each day passes.

 

According to ZeroHedge it's " 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown"

 

Source : https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine

[XGM]

27 minutes ago, EricTh said:

That's just like stopping all flights from all of Europe just because London is the epicenter of a virus.

Where is the epicenter today? Wuhan only? all the cities with over 100 (known..) cases?

Looking at the map, you'll see those are spread over an area a "bit" larger than London's.