Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

[orang37]

8 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

Basically, An engineered Bug (HIV sequences with the ability to spread like the common cold.

So you think someone who has no medical training (Ph.D. at Walden University, a for-profit on-line degree mill, in Finance) wearing a Harvard sweatshirt, and cap (he's pursuing an adult education liberal arts biology program at Harvard, he's not a graduate), has the qualification to make broad claims not only about the Corona virus, but also stock markets, and artificial intelligence ?

 

To claim the current Corona virus was deliberately bio-engineered ?

 

I think it more likely that our hidden alien overlords were experimenting with ways to make the Chinese fatter in order to optimize the coming global harvest of human pituitary gland secretions which they use as a recreational drug while watching NetFlix series they have secretly financed through their human stooges among the Illuminati.

 

~o:37;

[Tayaout]

28 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

Man,   I hope you are right.   Because if not,   then the people that area carriers or actively sick and don't die,   could blossom into HIV  related pathologies.... I think this is legit,   this was not the Work done by the Drs from Wuhan...  Are you certain we are talking about the same thing?     Apparently Patients are responding to the Cocktails that are given to folks with HIV. 

 

This paper is not peer reviewed. 

https://theprepared.com/blog/no-the-2019-ncov-genome-doesnt-actually-seem-engineered-from-hiv/

[samuttodd]

 

 

 

Ok I see that,  thanks,

 

Here is one that is I am not sure if you have seen this one?

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00705-010-0729-6

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by samuttodd

[orang37]

4 hours ago, samuttodd said:

 Here is one...

 

 

Why would you think a 2010 article about SARS is relevant to this thread ?

 

Where is the evidence current Corona virus came from bats, like SARS ?

 

Now, excuse me while I finish snacking on khankaew som tum (bat papaya salad)

 

~o:37;

[samuttodd]

 

[Logosone]

20 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

The actual death rate statistic, at this stage of the outbreak, is actually an unknown number since you can not calculate it accurately until the outbreak has peaked (i.e.: from a historical perspective).  It only serves as a rough gauge of whether deaths are increasing or decreasing over time. 

 

Simply dividing actual deaths to date by the number of total reported cases is NOT a valid equation since it does not account for those new cases for which death will be the end result.

 

 

Lol, that is EXACTLY what YOU have been doing in your post #66 on page 5 here. Anybody can read that you wrote "At present, the mortality rate is around 3%.... ", no doubt to supposedly support your Cassandra case that we are all going to die. The only way to get that 3% figure was of course to do exactly what you claim above is so wrong, to divide reported cases by deaths.

 

I was the one telling YOU that this approach is false, that the actual number of infections is much higher, at that time 100,000, (now over 300,000), and now you're trying to lecture me on how doing what you did is wrong? Are you for real?

 

Talk about misrepresentation.

 

So for your information nobody in their right mind is doing a simple reported cases by deaths divide, only you were doing that earlier. What serious people are doing is using sophisticated equations and models, like this one:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

 

There the number of reported cases is estimated at 5% of actual cases. That would mean the current reported figure of 17,318 actually means there are 346360 cases. Given that there are 362 deaths, deaths obviously being far easier to establish, that means that the mortality rate for coronavirus is round about 0.1% which is exactly the same as for the common flu.

 

All your talk of R naught figures also ignroes that viruses like the flu are seasonal, and it could well be that the same applies to Cov, so that a continued level R this or that may simply be wrong anyway. 

[ThaiBunny]

23 minutes ago, Logosone said:

There the number of reported cases is estimated at 5% of actual cases. That would mean the current reported figure of 17,318 actually means there are 346360 cases. Given that there are 362 deaths, deaths obviously being far easier to establish, that means that the mortality rate for coronavirus is round about 0.1% which is exactly the same as for the common flu.

Yes - in the US the typical number of deaths from 'flu each year is around 10,000 - and from opioid overdoses about ten times that number https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/01/29/coronavirus-what-are-symptoms-of-wuhan-china-novel-virus/4563892002/

Edited February 3, 2020 by ThaiBunny

[samuttodd]

I think that people are beginning to realize that there is a hell of a lot of information on pretty much anything in this day and age.

 

This has changed a great shift in how we as consumers of the information obtain and process the information.   There is indeed a lot of information that is wrong,  just as there is good and factual information.

 

 

Some of the information is wrong on purpose (disinformation) that is being used to get people to follow another narrative or push a certain agenda.  Some of it is government sponsored (propaganda)  some is sponsored by corporations with an interest in learing consumers of their information to feel a certian way or make certain choices based upon their reactions to the disinformation or factual information.    

 

These things have always been in place,  but now that information is so easily obtained (from any angle and level of validity,  it has become a frenzied storm.

 

 

At no other time in human history has it been moreso.

 

Wars are fought and campaigns waged here.

Attacks are planned and carried out on this virtual information battlefield.   The is the new theater of war.

 

[Tayaout]

19 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Yes - in the US the typical number of deaths from 'flu each year is around 10,000 - and from opioid overdoses about ten times that number https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/01/29/coronavirus-what-are-symptoms-of-wuhan-china-novel-virus/4563892002/

And only 144(!) declared flu death in China in 2018: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

Lol, that is EXACTLY what YOU have been doing in your post #66 on page 5 here. Anybody can read that you wrote "At present, the mortality rate is around 3%.... ", no doubt to supposedly support your Cassandra case that we are all going to die. The only way to get that 3% figure was of course to do exactly what you claim above is so wrong, to divide reported cases by deaths.

 

I was the one telling YOU that this approach is false, that the actual number of infections is much higher, at that time 100,000, (now over 300,000), and now you're trying to lecture me on how doing what you did is wrong? Are you for real?

 

Talk about misrepresentation.

 

So for your information nobody in their right mind is doing a simple reported cases by deaths divide, only you were doing that earlier. What serious people are doing is using sophisticated equations and models, like this one:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

 

There the number of reported cases is estimated at 5% of actual cases. That would mean the current reported figure of 17,318 actually means there are 346360 cases. Given that there are 362 deaths, deaths obviously being far easier to establish, that means that the mortality rate for coronavirus is round about 0.1% which is exactly the same as for the common flu.

 

All your talk of R naught figures also ignroes that viruses like the flu are seasonal, and it could well be that the same applies to Cov, so that a continued level R this or that may simply be wrong anyway. 

Please stop nit-picking in your attempts at one-upmanship!  This is really juvenile. I am not trying to lecture you on anything!  I stated the mortality rate because it IS a gauge of a changing situation.  I did NOT say it was an accurate representation of the actual numbers and made that very clear.

 

The point I have been making in all of my posts is that mortality rate, at this stage, is NOT what is even relevant.  What IS important is:

 

• The exponential increase in the number of new confirmed cases, which is at about 26% from most sources (but probably significantly higher) and is not showing any down-trending at all.

 

• the Serious Complication Rate which is at 20% (those cases requiring ICU care)

 

• the R-naught (number of new cases one case will generate) which is now believed to be even higher than previously thought (new virus models, though yet peer reviewed are claiming it to be 4.1).  In other words, it's now thought that it may be twice as infectious as first thought!

 

Taken all together this means that if the current exponential rise in new confirmed cases continues, the number of serious cases (those requiring ICU care) will exceed the number of ICU beds available, and that could happen in a matter of weeks, not months!  THEN, the mortality rate (whatever it turns out to be) will skyrocket!

 

You say "What serious people are doing is using sophisticated equations and models".  Well, just where is their raw data coming from?  It is coming from an UNRELIABLE source, the Chinese Central Government.  So, any projections are probably grossly incorrect.

 

I know doctors and nurses working inside hospitals in Shenzhen and what they say of the current situation is far more dire that what is being reported on state-sponsored media.  They claim that hospitals are being overwhelmed by new "suspected" cases to a degree that they are unable to administer test kits, so the probably number of actual infections is far higher; one doctor even said she thought it might be higher by a factor of 10 based on what she is seeing! 

 

She also went on to explain that many deaths from n-Cov are not being reported.  The reason is that in the Chinese medical system, if a person is admitted to hospital with a pre-existing condition, say Flu symptoms or pneumonia, but then develops advanced symptoms of n-CoV like ARDS and dies, the death certificate will only list the pre-existing condition.

 

In short, they are genuinely scared and angered about how the government is covering things up and how poorly they are actually handling this crisis!  Doctors, scientists, and journalist who try to voice their concern through social media such as WeChat are being censored, and even arrested under the "Rumors Law" which can land them in jail for up to 7 years!

 

This outbreak is NOT being contained as of yet.  There are now two more epicenters of the outbreak outside of Wuhan, in the Guangdong province and Zhejiang Province.  These are far from Wuhan so the mode of transmission is definitely human-to-human.  Anyone who truly believes this outbreak is being contained is quite mistaken.

 

What's more, there are about 5 million people who were able to escape containment in Wuhan during the approach of the Lunar New Year, when the largest migration of people in the world occurs every year.  Those people are now a HUGE "wild card" in this whole mess, and many of them travelled internationally before any screening was in place, and while they were still asymptomatic, yet capable of spreading the virus.  So, the significance of that will probably come into play over the next week or so.

 

You can make light of my view if you wish and nit-pick details of my posts, and promote the idea of putting on a "happy face", and claiming that the Chinese government has everything under control, and all is well, but I think you are very wrong!

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

2 hours ago, Tayaout said:

And only 144(!) declared flu death in China in 2018: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml

Yes,  and you can bet for certain that the communist Chinese would be honest.

[WaveHunter]

On 2/1/2020 at 2:20 PM, CGW said:

Indeed, people are still under the illusion that the media is there to inform, rather than influence!

Next they will be calling for a global "Police" force to monitors all travellers etc, etc ...........

The one thing about the Chinese Central government (actually the Chinese Communist Party CCP) is that their decision making is based primarily on what will help them maintain power, not about the welfare of their citizens. 

 

Anybody who follows state-sponsored media (which is what ALL media in China is) can see how obvious this is by the obvious propaganda that is appearing about this crisis.  It is all "happy face" proclamations of how great and noble the Chinese are in handling this crisis, and how everything is under control and there's no need to worry.

 

Anyone who voices concern over how the government is handling this crisis on social media are being aggressively censored and even arrested under the "Rumors Law" which can land them in jail for up to 7 years!

 

The truth is that the CCP structure of government hierarchy makes it almost impossible for them to act proactively in preventing such a crisis, yet they are masters of reacting to a crisis in order to preserve their power base.  That is exactly what is happening right now.

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Logosone]

49 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

 

You say "What serious people are doing is using sophisticated equations and models".  Well, just where is their raw data coming from?  It is coming from an UNRELIABLE source, the Chinese Central Government.  So, any projections are probably grossly incorrect.

 

You are failing to grasp what was in the link provided. Jonathan Read of Lancaster University is precisely NOT taking the Chinese figures as accurate, he is saying that they are only able to record 5% of cases. Again, that means there are about 350,000 cases and with the current number of deaths, that is roughly a 0.1% mortality rate. Same as influenza.

 

His calculation is based on a variety of factors. Read the link.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

 

 

[WaveHunter]

17 minutes ago, EricTh said:

Here's my experience at immigration today. Click below.

Today I went to Chiang Mai immigration to do my reentry permit.

 

What I found was the situation was quite chaotic compared to last time I went there in November where it was a breeze. The differences are

 

There was a long queue just to get to the front information counter and it snaked from outside the building. The entrance was essentially almost blocked and it was difficult for anyone just to get in and out the building. It took me around 20 mins just to reach the counter.

 

When I reached the counter, I saw one Thai visa agent with over ten or more Chinese passports and she spoke Thai with the immig. officer.

 

I saw one Chinese?? guy who didn't wear any mask and coughed at me. Hopefully....

 

Outside the building, I saw a specialized area specifically for Chinese tourists. I counted around 50 or more people sitting outside going into another small building.

 

I think Chiang Mai immigration should seriously consider opening up another branch at Promenada. 

 

Thought I'd copy/paste your report here so people can see it.  Glad you posted this because I hadn't even considered how anxious a trip to IMM could be in light of concerns for n-CoV. 

 

I don't mean this in a racist way, but of all the places where a human-to-human virus transmission could occur, standing shoulder to shoulder with Chinese strangers in a queue line at IMM would certainly be one of the most likely here in Thailand!  

 

Considering that Thailand is probably the most likely country for this outbreak to spread, I am really anxious what proactive measures the Thai government will be taking to prevent a crisis.  I hope they do not simply wait for it to become a crisis and then merely react, which is how China has handled this.

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by WaveHunter

[CGW]

21 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

The one thing about the Chinese Central government (actually the Chinese Communist Party CCP) is that their decision making is based primarily on what will help them maintain power, not about the welfare of their citizens. 

I disagree to some extent with what you are stating, I have spent a fair amount of time in China & once all this settles down will be going back there!

The Chinese "Government" has no issue in "maintaining power", they have it with nobody remotely capable of removing the power from them, they make sure of that!

It helps them if they maintain obedience from the masses for sure. 

Have you been to China and witnessed first hand the life of the average citizen?

[WaveHunter]

47 minutes ago, Logosone said:

You are failing to grasp what was in the link provided. Jonathan Read of Lancaster University is precisely NOT taking the Chinese figures as accurate, he is saying that they are only able to record 5% of cases. Again, that means there are about 350,000 cases and with the current number of deaths, that is roughly a 0.1% mortality rate. Same as influenza.

 

His calculation is based on a variety of factors. Read the link.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

 

 

Again, I do not care what the mortality rate currently is.  At best it is only a rough gauge of change until it can be accurately determined from a historical perspective (i.e.: after the crisis ends).  To state that the mortality rate is 0.1% at this stage of the outbreak is simply nonsense.  Nobody knows what it really is at this point.

 

Far more important are stats that can predict when hospitals will become overwhelmed with serious cases (i.e.: have more ICU cases than they have ICU beds) because THAT is when the mortality rate will skyrocket (what ever the actual stat turns out to be)

 

The three stats I keep discussing are the most appropriate ones to predict how soon this could happen and therefore are the ones that are genuinely important to consider IMHO.

 

You can agree or disagree.  I am not a scientist or doctor, but that's my impression from speaking with people who are, and who are on the actual front lines of all of this in Shenzhen.

 

I place far more credence in what they say and feel than I do in anyone not over there right now, irregardless of their sophisticated models and credentialed predictions.

Edited February 3, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, CGW said:

I disagree to some extent with what you are stating, I have spent a fair amount of time in China & once all this settles down will be going back there!

The Chinese "Government" has no issue in "maintaining power", they have it with nobody remotely capable of removing the power from them, they make sure of that!

It helps them if they maintain obedience from the masses for sure. 

Have you been to China and witnessed first hand the life of the average citizen?

I also have spent time in China and have Chinese friends there.  Make no mistake, I love China and respect the Chinese people but the way the Central government works is very troubling, and I firmly believe what I said, that their decision-making is almost always determined by what will protect their position of power, first, and what is good for the common citizen, second.

 

Furthermore, the unique hierarchical structure of their government is severely flawed when it comes how such crises as this n-CoV outbreak are managed.  There is ususally nothing that occurs proactively.  It is only once a crisis is undeniable that they react. and even then the hampered communication between local government and the Central government is an almost insurmountable obstacle in implementing an effective strategy for dealing with a crisis.

 

This whole crisis started back in early December, yet it took close to a month for the Central government to react in any way.  Even when they did, they covered it up as to severity, and were even promoting a record-breaking 100,000 person open-air banquet where people tightly packed together sharing dishes and utensils, and this all occurred only 7km from the animal markets where the virus was first believed to have originated from.

 

It wasn't until international attention began to be focused on the crisis that they truly began to react.  But their reaction was far from effective.  They waited until over 5 million people were able to leave Wuhan before implementing any kind of containment strategy. 

 

The Lunar New Year is when the largest migration of people in the world happens every year, so they knew this would occur, yet they did not began any containment efforts until well after those people left.  Even when they did announce a "lockdown" of the city, they announced it a day before it went into effect, so over 200,000 vehicles were able to flee!

 

These 5 million + people who were allowed to leave are now a huge "wild card" in whether or not this epidemic becomes a global pandemic since many of those people left China.  Many left before any sort of screening was in place at airports, and many of them may still be asymptomatic yet fully capable of spreading the virus.  The next week or so will be very telling in that regard.

 

To me, this does not sound like very effective government.  Even now, all you hear from state-sponsored media in China (which is virtually ALL media) is "happy-face" proclamations by Party officials about how glorious and effective the people's government efforts are, and that there is no need for concern, that all is just fine, and there is nothing to worry about.

 

I get a completely different read on all of this from people I know in Shenzhen because many of them are doctors and nurses working in area hospitals, and they are both scared and angered by how the government is handling this. 

 

Any doctors, scientists, or journalists who try to voice their concern on social media like WeChat are being aggressively censored, and some are even being arrested under the "Rumors Law" which can land them in jail for 7 years!

 

So, yeah, I have a very suspicious attitude about the Chinese Central government and how they are handling this whole mess, and most importantly, what the true magnitude of this crisis will turn out to be...for China, and for the global community as well.

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

I feel like Thailand is going to be the innocent bystander caught up in the mess.   

 

Because of the Kingdom's proximity,  and due to ethnic and genetic similarities which predispose people of E Asian heritage to falling to the illness and  (With such a large influx of Chinese tourists that flooded across into the Kingdom at the onset of their New Years Holiday vacation)   It is going to be a real bitch of a deal here in LOS.

 

The Thai Government is hard up against it due to the factors above,  and bad timing.   It is good that they are doing what they can to try and address the outbreak,  but the situation is stacked against them.    It is an unfortunate situation, and I believe that ultimately is out of their control at this point.  

 

 

 

Lets face it, When the Viral tidal wave surged,  It flooded into Thailand and gave it a good soaking.   

 

It is going to take a lot of sunshine and fresh air to dry the place out.    I hope and I'll pray that the people of Thailand (and china too) fare well through this rough situation.

Edited February 3, 2020 by samuttodd

[WaveHunter]

7 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

I feel like Thailand is going to be the innocent bystander caught up in the mess. ...

Everyone should be concerned here in Thailand but many are just shrugging it off as if this is just China's problem, and we are all safe and have nothing to worry about.  I disagree with that sentiment wholly.  Thailand is considered to be the most likely country for an outbreak to occur outside of China right now, and with good reason because Thailand is considered one of the most popular destination for Chinese tourists, and residents of Wuhan in particular.

 

Consider this:

 

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/#relative-import-risk

 

 

[samuttodd]

Damned straight Wavehunter.    I'd far rather overestimate this than underestimate it.   

[opalred]

i heard from the Thais/ most are coming now through road across border at Laos

[ThaiBunny]

9 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Thailand is considered to be the most likely country for an outbreak to occur outside of China right now, and with good reason because Thailand is considered one of the most popular destination for Chinese tourists, and residents of Wuhan in particular.

Yet absolutely no cases of Thais catching the virus have been reported

[Tayaout]

5 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Yet absolutely no cases of Thais catching the virus have been reported

Taxi driver in Bangkok. It was the first human to human infection outside China. 

Edited February 3, 2020 by Tayaout

[samuttodd]

I think that what has happened in wuhan will happen in Bkk.   It is just that there is a lag time for the virus to catch up... I hope I am wrong.

[CGW]

23 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Everyone should be concerned here in Thailand but many are just shrugging it off as if this is just China's problem, and we are all safe and have nothing to worry about.  I disagree with that sentiment wholly.

No matter how "concerned" we are and how much mumbo jumbo & distorted facts we read its not going to make a blind bit of difference to the end result! 

Yes, there is yet another virus in the air, like with all virus and disease the best chance of survival is too stay healthy, thankfully I live in a field far from "civilisation" so don't have to worry about direct contact, all I can do is keep my immune system as healthy and active as possible and wait for this to fade away, or is this going to be the one that kills us all? If it is - so be it, be damned if I am going to worry or panic! ???? 

[WaveHunter]

26 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

Damned straight Wavehunter.    I'd far rather overestimate this than underestimate it.   

Agreed; "Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best".  That is the way any sane, intelligent person should approach something like this.  I lived in Florida in the USA for over 10 years and experienced 4 hurricanes; 2 of which completely destroyed my home.  When you live in a place like that you learn very quickly how important that adage is.  For those who think this is all just alarmist talk, they should strongly reconsider.

[samuttodd]

I am out in the River each day, (Lower Tha Jin) by the Gulf.   I like to kayak and paddle the mangroves looking for birds and pythons.   I try to only go out on a good incoming tidal push,  so that i am not paddling in the septic outflow of greater Bangkok.

 

I cover (for the sun) my face and eyes and always shower up in dettol and soak my gear in it when I am done,   rinse my mouth with antiseptic rinse and blow my nose and then snort up some colloidal silver into my sinuses...  So far I haven't got hepatitis or anything else (thank god)

Edited February 3, 2020 by samuttodd

[WaveHunter]

22 minutes ago, CGW said:

No matter how "concerned" we are and how much mumbo jumbo & distorted facts we read its not going to make a blind bit of difference to the end result! 

Yes, there is yet another virus in the air, like with all virus and disease the best chance of survival is too stay healthy, thankfully I live in a field far from "civilisation" so don't have to worry about direct contact, all I can do is keep my immune system as healthy and active as possible and wait for this to fade away, or is this going to be the one that kills us all? If it is - so be it, be damned if I am going to worry or panic! ???? 

Luckily people with your sentiment are not the ones who are responsible for preventing such crises from turning into major disasters.

 

Every viral outbreak in our lifetime that I can think of was prevented from becoming a major disaster because people took the situation seriously and took strong and decisive action, not from sticking their head in the sand and putting on a "happy face" expecting it to just magically go away on its' own. 

 

You can say that it's someone else's problem and someone else's responsibility, but we're all really involved in these kind of issues and we all have a voice, however small it might be that dictates the outcome, whether you care to admit it or not.

 

No personal affront intended, just saying...

Edited February 3, 2020 by WaveHunter

[CGW]

17 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Luckily people with your sentiment are not the ones who are responsible for preventing such crises from turning into major disasters.

As a certified Major emergency manager I could take that personal - but I won't ???? 

 

According to the "statistics" stress is responsible for 110 million deaths every year (sounds hard to believe? that's what the centre for Disease Control/National Institute on Occupational Safety & Health state as fact) 

 

Best I don't worry myself, seems statistically that I will be far safer, given the death rate from the virus so far!

[WaveHunter]

16 minutes ago, CGW said:

As a certified Major emergency manager I could take that personal - but I won't ???? 

 

According to the "statistics" stress is responsible for 110 million deaths every year (sounds hard to believe? that's what the centre for Disease Control/National Institute on Occupational Safety & Health state as fact) 

 

Best I don't worry myself, seems statistically that I will be far safer, given the death rate from the virus so far!

Well don't take it personal because that is not what I intended but you did make the remark that prompted my reaction.  I actually agree with you that this is nothing to get stressed out about or consider living inside a bubble.  My only issue is with people downplaying the seriousness of this outbreak because it is far from being brought under control and its' actual potential to wreck havoc is essentially unknown at this point.  It should be respected is all I am saying.