Thai MoPH No Longer Reporting on Backlog of Potential Coronavirus Cases Awaiting Lab Results

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in Thailand, the Thai Ministry of Public Health thru its Department of Disease Control has been issuing daily updates online including versions in English.  Up through Feb. 2, every one of those updates had included a tally of the number of potential coronavirus cases awaiting lab test results. That number had been rapidly growing to an officially reported number of 405 as of the Feb. 2 status report.

 

Now as of the Feb. 3 report issued earlier today, all mention of the backlog of potential cases awaiting lab test results has been removed, as has been another section that reported on the lab test results numbers that tested positive for various other kinds of illnesses other than the coronavirus. And now there's no mention anywhere in the latest report of what actually has happened, if anything, with the 405 cases that were awaiting lab test results as of the Feb. 2 report.

 

The last entry from the Feb. 2 update:

 

 

A couple days ago, a public health official was quoted in the BKK Post as saying they were going to resolve the backlog of pending lab result cases within a couple days. After that, the tally of cases rose markedly over the next couple days. And now suddenly after hitting 405 potential cases as of Feb. 2, all of a sudden, POOF, it's disappeared!

 

Feb. 3 status report

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no31-030263.pdf

 

All daily reports:

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

 

Despite the officially declared number of 19 coronavirus cases, and 8 of those listed as having recovered and discharged from hospitals. the one other key piece of information the latest report still tells us is the total number of people in "potential" virus cases who are still hospitalized for whatever reasons... and that stood at 350 people as of Feb. 3

 

 

So other than the 19 confirmed cases and the 11 of those still in hospital, why are the other 339 people (350 minus 11 confirmed virus cases still hospitalized) still in hospital???  And what became of the broader 405 suspect cases awaiting lab results confirmations as of Feb. 2?

Edited February 4, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

There was a telling graph in one of the other threads. It was a bar graph, if somebody has a line graph with "persons under investigation" and "pending diagnosis", it should show they were going up hand in hand. It's a clear indication of either deliberate withholding of the results, or inability to do the lab tests. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by DrTuner

[Tayaout]

I think you already know the answer and I suspected this outcome over a week ago. Unfortunately it when people will wake up it will be too late. 

[graemeaylward]

They withheld the election results, so why not the small matter of coronavirus cases! The truth will come out when someone blows the whistle!

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

I think you already know the answer and I suspected this outcome over a week ago. Unfortunately it when people will wake up it will be too late. 

 

I think Cambodia and Laos -- also kith and kin with China and awash with Chinese tourists/workers -- also have not reported any coronavirus cases as yet... And actually, I don't think the public health authorities in either country even have the ability to test for the virus themselves.

 

I recall reading one article on Cambodia lately where a health official there said they'd have to send any virus tests to labs in Thailand or somewhere else, because they can't do the testing themselves.

 

It makes it a lot easier to not report any virus cases when either you're not looking for them, or your national leadership are vassals to China whose main priority is to avoid offending their overlords.

Edited February 4, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[CanuckThai]

I just asked my wife, if she had any updates from the Ministry of health.  492 are under observation.  19 confirmed.  In Thai language on the site.  

[Tayaout]

Cambodia has reported 1 case but the expat there suspect a cover-up. Myanmar have one suspect but they sent the sample to Bangkok so they will probably have to wait a long time. Laos has not reported any case but none of these countries has the capability to test for the virus. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Tayaout

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

27 minutes ago, CanuckThai said:

I just asked my wife, if she had any updates from the Ministry of health.  492 are under observation.  19 confirmed.  In Thai language on the site.  

 

Not quite....

 

of the 19 confirmed cases, they're saying 8 have already been released home.

 

and of the 492 total/cumulative who were ever listed as patients under investigation, 119 have already been released to go home...

 

The Thai government reports and reporting on them, unfortunately, sometimes tend to do a poor job of distinguishing between cumulative (since the beginning) stats vs. those that reflect the current status of things.

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

BTW, regarding my number above of 339 suspected cases/people still in Thai hospitals in addition to the 11 confirmed virus cases still in hospital as of Feb. 3....

 

The Thai government report also includes a separate section for an additional 23 people listed as "Investigation in Isolation Room".  And I don't know for certain what that means, nor have I seen it explained.

 

Does it mean they're counting those 23 separately from the others hospitalized and listed as receiving treatment because they're in hospital "isolation rooms"?  Or, does it mean people who have been sent home with instructions to quarantine at home... 

 

Maybe the original TH version of that entry would provide a better explanation/clarification of just what it means for that group of 23.

Edited February 4, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

17 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Maybe the original TH version of that entry would provide a better explanation/clarification of just what it means for that group of 23.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/file/situation/situation-no31-030263_1.pdf

 

I think it's pretty much a straight translation.

[PPMMUU]

Everything is straightforward

 

They have to be clear of any symptom to be allow to go home.

[uhuh]

New York Times ran an article a couple of days ago about how different governments (especially the new Chinese colonies) are less than honest about CoV.

 

Thailand was not the worst but was not exactly praised for transparency.

(The worst was probably Cambodia, Hun Sen saying he doesn't want to see anybody wear a mask. An Indonesian minister said CoV was nothing to worry about)

 

Sorry I don't have time to google the link

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

13 hours ago, uhuh said:

New York Times ran an article a couple of days ago about how different governments (especially the new Chinese colonies) are less than honest about CoV.

 

Thailand was not the worst but was not exactly praised for transparency.

(The worst was probably Cambodia, Hun Sen saying he doesn't want to see anybody wear a mask. An Indonesian minister said CoV was nothing to worry about)

 

Sorry I don't have time to google the link

 

Yep, that was what the NYT report said. It was a good overview of how the various SE Asian govts more or less under the sway of the Chinese govt. have been soft-pedaling their responses to the virus, to a greater or lesser extent.  Don't want to offend their overlord or do anything to impair the flows of Chinese tourists / business / money etc.

 

I posted a link to and summary of the NYT article in another of the CV threads here.

 

[DrTuner]

The latest report doesn't have it either. I googled into the lab where the diagnoses are supposed to be done in and it looks like it's National Institute of Health's virology lab, fully controlled by the government:

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by DrTuner

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

New daily report is out from the Thai Dept. of Disease Control recapping their version of things up thru yesterday, Feb. 4.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no32-040263.pdf

 

As expected, for the second day, there continued to be no mention of any backlog of potential CV cases who are awaiting lab test results. So they do in fact appear to have decided to start omitting that information from now on.

 

Otherwise, 57 new cases of patients under investigation. 

--25 confirmed cases, up from 19 the day before.

--372 patients under hospital treatment, up from 350 the day before.

--53 patients listed as "investigation in isolation room," up from 23 the day before.

 

 

The recovered and returned home count also increased from 119 to 124, which is a good thing.

 

BTW, since someone asked, they also had been in some earlier reports listing the range of different Thai cities where CV cases or suspect cases were under hospital treatment. In the recent reports, they've also stopped giving any sense of the geography of where those folks are being treated.

 

One of the last times I saw any reference to treatment geography in their daily reports was the one for Jan. 31:

 

Quote

Among all PUI, 221 are admitted at hospitals, including 113 at government hospitals (Nonthaburi, Nakhon Pathom, Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Phuket, Nakhon Sawan, Ang Thong, Surat Thani, Phitsanulok, Lampang, Lamphun, Chiang Rai, Phang-nga, and Ranong), 12 at Bamrasnaradura Infectious Disease Institute, 96 at private hospitals, and 53 are in isolation rooms for healthcare providers to monitor their clinical signs.

 

As I noted at the time, that kind of shows you how at least suspected cases (not necessarily confirmed ones) were pretty much popping up all around Thailand.  I don't know that there's ever been a public accounting of just where all of the 25 confirmed cases (17 of them still in hospital) are being treated, though I suspect they're largely in/around BKK.

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

New government virus status report is out for yesterday, Feb. 5:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no33-050263.pdf

 

--the total number of confirmed cases since the beginning remained at 25.

--One additional of those cases was released, meaning 9 have gone home and 16 remain hospitalized.

--the number of suspect cases under current hospitalization dropped from 372 the day before to 348 yesterday.

--The total/cumulative number of actual or suspect cases released to go home increased from 124 the day before to 202 yesterday (meaning an additional 78 for the day yesterday).

--That was partially offset by 46 new cases of patients under investigation, down from 57 the day before.

 

 

No mention whatsoever on the number of patients awaiting lab results or where the various confirmed or suspect cases are being hospitalized.

 

[PPMMUU]

Quote

(where) suspect cases are being hospitalized.

 

What are the usefulness of such information?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Had some additional info and clarification come to light, which I posted on in another thread.. So I'll link to the post here, and mention that the additional info, among other things, confirms that the Thai Department of Disease Control is listing two separate and different categories of "Patients Under Investigation" for CV who are currently being hospitalized.

 

One is their "Under Treatment" category. The other is their "Isolation Room" category. So in their various daily update reports, the number of PUI currently in hospital is going to be the total of those two figures.

 

 

In that same thread, via a news release, the DDC reported that "Most of the PUI were infected with seasonal influenza."  However, for reasons I can't explain or understand, once patients come into the Thai health system as a CV PUI, their case never gets taken out of the cumulative PUI total even after they're released home, presumably because their CV tests came back negative.

 

So in order to judge the CURRENT level of actual and potential CV patients, the best indicators available to the public seem to be the daily combination of their numbers for PUI "under treatment" combined with PUI in "isolation room".

-----------------

Lastly, as for the 405 cases the DDC reported a couple days ago as cases "in which laboratory results are pending," it's possible there's a more benign explanation for that backlog, along the following lines:

 

An initial test when a patients enters the hospital often has shown to not correctly diagnose CV, even when the patient then later goes on to have full-blown symptoms of the virus and a subsequently confirming test. That's because it often takes some time for the virus elements to build up in the body to the extent that they'll produce a positive test result. And that lead time can take up to a couple weeks...

 

So, one POSSIBILITY, when the DDC was talking about patients "in which laboratory results are pending" could be that they weren't talking about the results of an initial/first test for CV...but instead, for the subsequent and/or final tests after a patient has been hospitalized and monitored for long enough to know with more certainty whether they have the virus or not... So essentially, there would be a large group of patients staying in the hospital until enough time has passed for a final test to either clear them or diagnose them with CV...

 

That's another possible explanation. But AFAIK, the Thai DDC has never publicly elaborated about the 405 number of cases and just what that number meant, and now of course, has ceased making any mention of that status in their daily update reports.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 minutes ago, PPMMUU said:

 

What are the usefulness of such information?

 

It's an indicator of where potential cases are surfacing in Thailand... only in BKK near the international airports, or more broadly in many other outlying cities. Their last public mention of hospitals where "Patients Under Investigation" were being housed/treated included quite a few different cities around Thailand from north to south... But again, those are just potential cases, not necessarily confirmed ones. Most of the confirmed ones appear to be being treated in BKK. And the Department of Disease Control said in one one of their recent statements that most of the PUIs are turning out to have only seasonal influenza, though they didn't give any actual numbers for that.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, PoorSucker said:

This will interest you. 

Left to right are "nationally confirmed cases," "suspected cases," "cured," and "deaths." (Internet photo)

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

I saw that today and dismissed it in my head as a bug from Tencent. Simply because they wouldn't be able to confirm so many because of the lack of diagnosis equipment.

Edited February 6, 2020 by DrTuner

[Traubert]

14 minutes ago, PoorSucker said:

This will interest you. 

Left to right are "nationally confirmed cases," "suspected cases," "cured," and "deaths." (Internet photo)

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

 

Your fellow moderator Sheryl shut that link down as being unsubstantiated.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

24 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I saw that today and dismissed it in my head as a bug from Tencent. Simply because they wouldn't be able to confirm so many because of the lack of diagnosis equipment.

 

I think that issue is related to this news report, as PoorSucker cited above.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

Quote

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths

Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus

 

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend appeared to inadvertently release what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths — which are far higher than official figures, but eerily in line with predictions from a respected scientific journal.
 

As early as Jan. 26, netizens were reporting that Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," briefly showed data on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China that was much higher than official estimates, before suddenly switching to lower numbers. Taiwanese netizen "Hiroki Lo" that day reported that Tencent and NetEase were both posting "unmodified statistics," before switching to official numbers in short order.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), the Tencent webpage showed confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

 

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[PPMMUU]

14 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

It's an indicator of where potential cases are surfacing in Thailand... only in BKK near the international airports, or more broadly in many other outlying cities. Their last public mention of hospitals where "Patients Under Investigation" were being housed/treated included quite a few different cities around Thailand from north to south... But again, those are just potential cases, not necessarily confirmed ones. Most of the confirmed ones appear to be being treated in BKK. And the Department of Disease Control said in one one of their recent statements that most of the PUIs are turning out to have only seasonal influenza, though they didn't give any actual numbers for that.

 

 

What practical means would you do differently if there are 2019-nCoV patients being treated in your area?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

11 minutes ago, PPMMUU said:

What practical means would you do differently if there are 2019-nCoV patients being treated in your area?

 

I would be more attentive to wearing a face mask when out in public and practicing hand hygiene (washing regularly with soap and/or an alcohol based hand sanitizer gel) if I knew people where I lived had come down with the virus, or were suspected of having it.

 

And in an urban area like BKK, or maybe even places like CM, Pattaya, Phuket, I'd probably try to avoid places where lots of Chinese tourists are hanging out/congregating... And take precautions and/or avoid places where I'd be in very close physical contact with others (like on BTS or MRT rail lines in BKK, and even taxi drivers).

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

On 2/6/2020 at 2:29 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

New government virus status report is out for yesterday, Feb. 5:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no33-050263.pdf

 

--the total number of confirmed cases since the beginning remained at 25.

--One additional of those cases was released, meaning 9 have gone home and 16 remain hospitalized.

--the number of suspect cases under current hospitalization dropped from 372 the day before to 348 yesterday.

--The total/cumulative number of actual or suspect cases released to go home increased from 124 the day before to 202 yesterday (meaning an additional 78 for the day yesterday).

--That was partially offset by 46 new cases of patients under investigation, down from 57 the day before.

 

 

No mention whatsoever on the number of patients awaiting lab results or where the various confirmed or suspect cases are being hospitalized.

 

 

Looks like no new confirmed CV cases reported as of the close of yesterday, Feb. 6, according to today's status report from the Thai Dept. of Disease Control:

 

--25 confirmed cases, 9 released home, 16 still in hospital.

--20 new cases of Patients Under Investigation (PUI), down from 46 new PUI cases the prior day. (PUI means non-confirmed patients who are showing possible CV symptoms) 

--the total number of PUI who are in hospitals declined slightly to 390:

369 in regular hospitals, and 21 in isolation units. The 390 total is down 3 cases from the prior day's 393 total.

--23 additional PUI patients were released to home, bringing the total to 225, up from the prior days cumulative total of 202.

 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/file/situation/situation-no34-060263.pdf

 

PS - for some reason, the Thai DDC is very slow today in posting the EN version of their daily report... So I went ahead and used the TH version instead.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

News media reports this afternoon are saying Japanese authorities have found 41 new CV patients among passengers on the huge cruise ship that's been quarantined there. Japan had had 45 confirmed cases (20 of them previously from the same ship), and the latest news apparently would bring that total to 86 for the country.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-reports-41-new-coronavirus-infections-on-quarantined-cruise-liner-11581045439

 

 

Quote

 

TOKYO—Japan reported a tripling of cases of novel coronavirus among people on a quarantined cruise liner, as the largest known cluster of infection outside China provides clues to how easily the virus spreads in confined conditions.
 

The health ministry said Friday that 41 people with the virus would be taken from the ship to hospitals, adding to the 20 removed for treatment earlier this week.
 

The Diamond Princess is docked in the port of Yokohama and passengers have been told to remain in their cabins for a two-week quarantine period. Between passengers and crew, there are about 3,700 people aboard.

 

 

 

[Haecksler]

59 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Looks like no new confirmed CV cases reported as of the close of yesterday, Feb. 6, according to today's status report from the Thai Dept. of Disease Control:

I have the same problem with those numbers.

I think it is likely that they do not have enough testing equipment & the procedure to prove a COV positive is very time consuming. A poster mentioned 4-5 tests per day not more, I think he is a doctor.

I assume that patience stay in hospital until symptoms are gone so they never appear in the statistic. I don't think they can test all of them.

There is not satisfying  transparency.

What are the criteria of being a PUI? Which criteria of being in Isolation room.

If those numbers would be more understandable an estimate could be done even without testing them.

The other thing I read is that the mass of people can be tested in a much larger scale on common sicknesses like flu. If a common sickness is not proved but symptoms are present there is a high possibility on CV positive. Is that done here? I don't know.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, Haecksler said:

I have the same problem with those numbers.

I think it is likely that they do not have enough testing equipment & the procedure to prove a COV positive is very time consuming. A poster mentioned 4-5 tests per day not more, I think he is a doctor.

I assume that patience stay in hospital until symptoms are gone so they never appear in the statistic. I don't think they can test all of them.

There is not satisfying  transparency.

What are the criteria of being a PUI? Which criteria of being in Isolation room.

If those numbers would be more understandable an estimate could be done even without testing them.

The other thing I read is that the mass of people can be tested in a much larger scale on common sicknesses like flu. If a common sickness is not proved but symptoms are present there is a high possibility on CV positive. Is that done here? I don't know.

 

As I've mentioned before, there's not a lot of transparency, at least in EN, about how MoPH is handling things with CV.... Who's being tested, what kind of tests, how many times over what period, what conditions are required before a PUI (Patient Under Investigation) is released from hospital, etc. etc.

 

And their lack of transparency only increased further in the past week when they ceased providing info on the OTHER types of illnesses that the hospitalized PUI patients were being diagnosed with, apart from the CV. At the same time, they ceased reporting on the backlog number of patients still awaiting CV test results.

 

The one good thing to say is the number of new patients with symptoms coming into the system as PUI has been decreasing for the past 3 days at least, which is a positive trend indicator if it continues.

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The one good thing to say is the number of new patients with symptoms coming into the system as PUI has been decreasing for the past 3 days at least, which is a positive trend indicator if it continues.

One of the main sources of PUIs seemed to be airport thermal scans. The number of arrivals is down. The other source would be people with symptoms going to hospital. There might be a delay there right now before an outbreak manifests itself after the incubation time. Just thinking out loud what the possible factors could be.