DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said: The numbers on the worldometer site make for interesting interpretation and the question has been asked why does Wuhan have a death rate of 4.9% the province of Hubei 3.1% and the death rate in the other provinces 0.16%.When the outbreak stated the spread went unnoticed for a period of time (anybodies guess how long) during that time many would have been infected and infected many more (it's very virulent) since most of these early cases displayed only mild flu like they went unreported making it almost impossible to determine with any accuracy the true rate of deaths in this early period of the outbreak so they just went with the unreliable inaccurate numbers they could get at the time.These numbers now seem to be firmly entrenched in the lists we see on the net and are taken as "on face value".History should show wether this is the case as I believe it is.Note the 0.16% Fatality rate closely resembles most of the commonly accepted other flu fatality rates of 0.13% Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%. Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%. Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%. Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ The outbreaks in other provinces only started manifesting now. It takes 1-2 weeks to die, so expect the others to catch up. Also, the availability of ICU rooms plays a part. In Wuhan they are overwhelmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 You can count the number of diagnoses done each day by (PUI change - results pending change). It looks like only a handful a day, the virology lab at National Institute of Health is likely the only place processing them. Or the results have been deliberately blocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, DrTuner said: You can count the number of diagnoses done each day by (PUI change - results pending change). It looks like only a handful a day, the virology lab at National Institute of Health is likely the only place processing them. Or the results have been deliberately blocked. Or slow-walked... As I said above, what's interesting to me at this point is why they have 25 confirmed cases but an additional 330+ people still hospitalized receiving treatment as PUI for what? And what's become of the diagnosis and testing for that group, since they haven't either become confirmed cases or been released home... (My 330+ number is the larger total number now hospitalized receiving treatment minus the 16 confirmed cases still hospitalized, i.e., the non CV confirmed group.) And that 330+ number is leaving out the "under investigation in isolation" contingent, which I'm not sure what to make of.... Quote You can count the number of diagnoses done each day by (PUI change - results pending change). Does that really tell you the diagnoses being done by day? You've got new PUI coming in daily... some days confirmed cases being added that don't get subtracted from the PUI totals, some days people being sent home that also don't get subtracted from the PUI totals, etc etc.... Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said: Does that really tell you the diagnoses being done by day? You've got new PUI coming in daily... some days confirmed cases being added that don't get subtracted from the PUI totals, some days people being sent home that also don't get subtracted from the PUI totals, etc etc.... Gives an indication at least. But yeah not possible to get an exact number as far as I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khunpa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said: Or slow-walked... As I said above, what's interesting to me at this point is why they have 25 confirmed cases but an additional 330+ people still hospitalized receiving treatment as PUI for what? And what's become of the diagnosis and testing for that group, since they haven't either become confirmed cases or been released home... And that 330+ number is leaving out the "under investigation in isolation" contingent, which I'm not sure what to make of.... Does that really tell you the diagnoses being done by day? You've got new PUI coming in daily... some days confirmed cases being added that don't get subtracted from the PUI totals, some days people being sent home that also don't get subtracted from the PUI totals, etc etc.... Logically the amount of infected will at some point jump very high, once they get all those people tested. I find it worrying they are sending people home, without know the test results. For sure not a way to contain this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, khunpa said: Logically the amount of infected will at some point jump very high, once they get all those people tested. I think they hope people lose interest so they'll never have to release the final results. Thainess 101. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, DrTuner said: The outbreaks in other provinces only started manifesting now. It takes 1-2 weeks to die, so expect the others to catch up. Also, the availability of ICU rooms plays a part. In Wuhan they are overwhelmed. I acknowledge that the numbers of fatalities takes 1-2 weeks to manifest themselves or to die as you so aptly put it but if my theory (it is only a theory) is correct then the numbers of infections will outrun the fatality rate enough to make the numbers settle down to the 0.16% rate of those in "the other provinces" which is my,probably worthless but none the less hopeful, prediction. I also agree that the numbers of ICU care available would play a part I think the part they play won't have a large impact on the final figures,but as I said time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, DrTuner said: I think they hope people lose interest so they'll never have to release the final results. Thainess 101. I totally agree with this and think this could also apply to the numbers that have come out of China it's hard enough to get anything resembling accurate figures when trying one's best to be truthful and absolutely impossible when wilful(and in my mind criminally negligent) manipulation takes place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 36 minutes ago, khunpa said: I find it worrying they are sending people home, without know the test results. For sure not a way to contain this. We know they're sending them home... But we have no idea what kind of protocol those folks have passed in order to get sent home... I know from reading the Japan reports lately that they've been testing people in quarantine.. had them test negative, and then a week later test positive... So that's why a lot of places are saying they're going to hold onto people for at least two weeks and then do a final clearing test before releasing them. What Thailand's doing in that regard, AFAIK, we have no idea. Are they doing one test, multiple tests per person and when, etc etc. And what kind of tests... PCR or other... Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Quote The problem with RT-PCR is that it can pick up viral genetic material only if there’s a lot of it floating around. And early in an infection, before someone starts to feel really sick, there’s often not enough RNA to flag the test. Nancy Messonnier, the CDC's coronavirus boss, pointed this out this week to reporters, saying that the health agency’s test is accurate among people who look sick. But using it as a screening tool for asymptomatic people is less useful. “A negative test most likely means a person is not infected,” she said. “However, it may mean that an infection has not developed enough to be detected by the test.” https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-fast-tracked-a-coronavirus-test/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said: https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-fast-tracked-a-coronavirus-test/ Ok this gave some info I was wondering about: Quote Then a DNA-building enzyme makes a bunch of copies. To test whether pieces of virus they’re interested in are actually in the sample, technicians add a dye that fluoresces in the presence of DNA. What I didn't see is how long does it take to "make a bunch of copies". Minutes, hours, days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said: https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-fast-tracked-a-coronavirus-test/ The question I keep raising is the quoting of the numbers of people sickened or infected with the coronavirus without actually being able to prove the numbers (impossible to prove in my opinion) which gives a misleading fatality rate which few seem to be questioning.Being the year of the Rat I think I'm starting to smell one and I was one day from being born in the year of the Rat. On Tuesday, the US Food and Drug Administration issued emergency authorization of a diagnostics test for the novel coronavirus that has sickened more than 20,000 people and killed 427 since emerging in China six weeks ago. Edited February 6, 2020 by FarFlungFalang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khunpa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) Out of the 190 test they must have finalised 25 were infected. (approx. 13%) IF the same 13% is applied to the 405 pending tests, then on 02.02.2020 there would have been 77 infected. Let us hope that it not the case. Put clearly this has not be contained, as that requires fast test results to react. Edited February 6, 2020 by khunpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I'm seeing one indication that each RT-PCR test takes about 2 hours to process.... but I have no idea of the testing volume capacity of Thailand's reference labs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said: I'm seeing one indication that each RT-PCR test takes about 2 hours to process.... but I have no idea of the testing volume capacity of Thailand's reference labs. Hmm. Would make sense if they do it in one lab, one by one. Working day 8 hours -> 4-5 tests/day, just about what I figured the speed was. Regarding China, there were reports that a company was churning out ~4k test kits per day, not sure what type of test but that's the figure I saw quoted. Which is about the rate the confirmed infections are rising with. But then again it would indicate nearly 100% of those tests come out positive. Very hard to get any clear sight of what is really going on. Edited February 6, 2020 by DrTuner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICELANDMAN Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Hmm. Would make sense if they do it in one lab, one by one. Working day 8 hours -> 4-5 tests/day, just about what I figured the speed was. Regarding China, there were reports that a company was churning out ~4k test kits per day, not sure what type of test but that's the figure I saw quoted. Which is about the rate the confirmed infections are rising with. But then again it would indicate nearly 100% of those tests come out positive. Very hard to get any clear sight of what is really going on. Thailand also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Hmm. Would make sense if they do it in one lab, one by one. Working day 8 hours -> 4-5 tests/day, just about what I figured the speed was. Except the MoPH docs have talked about them using several different government labs... The way I read that info, it sounded like they might be retesting each sample among two labs, but that was wasn't very clear from their information. Even if only one lab, that doesn't necessarily mean they can only be running one test at a time, at least, I don't think so. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/declaration/declaration_170163.pdf Quote For the process of confirming a case, the diagnosis of this emerging infectious disease needs to be given carefully and concisely following the standard protocol. Signs and symptoms of a potential case are as follows: fever with symptoms of respiratory track infection, including history of traveling to an affected area, Wuhan. Laboratory testing via genetic sequencing from at least two reference laboratories, including the Department of Medical Sciences and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Thai Red Cross Society, are required to subsequently confirm 2019-nCoV. A duration of approximately 24 hours for the laboratory testing procedure is necessary for validity, clarity, and verification of the laboratory results before an announcement of the confirmed case of 2019-nCoV. Adhering to these procedures, after disclosure of laboratory results and accounting for all aspects of consideration from three technical advisory groups of clinicians, epidemiologists, and virologists, the diagnostic agreement identified another confirmed case of novel coronavirus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasThBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Hmm. Would make sense if they do it in one lab, one by one. Working day 8 hours -> 4-5 tests/day, just about what I figured the speed was. Regarding China, there were reports that a company was churning out ~4k test kits per day, not sure what type of test but that's the figure I saw quoted. Which is about the rate the confirmed infections are rising with. But then again it would indicate nearly 100% of those tests come out positive. Very hard to get any clear sight of what is really going on. We wait since 3 days for a test to have a result. It's about a small kid... In Thailand. Make your own conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Forbes has an interesting article as well: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/02/05/ai-predicts-coronavirus-could-infect-25b-and-kill-53m-doctors-say-thats-not-credible-and-heres-why/#d7d5cbf11cd0 And it predicts pretty much the same I've thought from the beginning: Quote In other words, despite all medical efforts, Coronavirus is likely to go global. But, thanks to all those medical efforts, it’s unlikely to be as deadly as predicted. Another endemic virus that'll continue killing people just as flu does. Add to the bucket of things that are trying to kill you, join the queue (it's long, even when not counting the TVF contributors that would clap their small hairy hands if I was to make a hasty exit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) The other thing I should have noticed sooner on the Department of Disease Control website is that they're actually posting, most days lately, two different daily update documents in EN -- one under the category of "Situation," and the other under the category of "Press Release" on their website. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php I've been focusing more on the Situation updates lately, but have realized that the Press Release updates often contain different / additional info, such as the latest Feb. 5 version: Quote 2. From 3 January to 4 February 2020, the total number of patients under investigation (PUI) was raised to 549 people. Of those, 48 PUI were detected from the airport screening, 501 people sought medical services on their own at hospitals, and 124 cases recovered from their illnesses and returned to their homes. Most of the PUI were infected with seasonal influenza, and 425 PUI are admitted at hospitals. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/news.php As for the comment above about 425 PUI ARE (current tense) admitted at hospitals, that does match the total of two different numbers listed in their situation report as of Feb. 4: --372 under treatment --53 investigation in isolation room So apparently, it is appropriate to total those two numbers together as an accurate reflection of the current day's number of hospitalized patients total. However, still doesn't explain what happened to their total of 405 patients as of a couple days ago who they reported as awaiting lab test results. Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khunpa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51379088 Not good for those in Wuhan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said: We wait since 3 days for a test to have a result. It's about a small kid... In Thailand. Make your own conclusions. The backlog that was last published on Feb 2 was 405. If they process 5/d, it'll take 80 days just to clear that. Most likely fast test kits will be available before that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, khunpa said: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51379088 Quote The CT scans shows their lungs are infected. My brother is coughing too, and has some breathing difficulties. My dad has a high fever. His temperature was 39.3C (102F) yesterday and he's constantly coughing and having breathing difficulties. We got him an oxygen machine at home and he relies on that machine twenty-four seven. CT scans are "suspected", oxygen machine "serious", if I had to guess. If those are included in the stats at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, khunpa said: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51379088 Not good for those in Wuhan Quote Wang's message to the world What I want to say is, if I knew they were going to lock down the city on 23 January, I would have definitely taken my whole family out, because there's no help here. If we were somewhere else, there might be hope. I don't know whether people like us, who listened to the government and stayed in Wuhan, made the right decision or not. "There's no help here." Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khunpa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 25 minutes ago, DrTuner said: The backlog that was last published on Feb 2 was 405. If they process 5/d, it'll take 80 days just to clear that. Most likely fast test kits will be available before that, though. Yes, but with slow testing now, no chance at all for containing this. I wonder if they think they "lose face" if they ask other countries for help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Interesting caption in one of the photos in CNN's feed: https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-06-20-intl-hnk/index.html Does Chula have proper biolabs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traubert Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 14 hours ago, rkidlad said: If anyone understands this virus and the virus that is the CCP, it is Hong Kong. There are still three border crossings open between Hong Kong and the mainland. If there wasn't Hong Kong would starve and run out of medical supplies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traubert Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 12 hours ago, mikebell said: If a Chinese worker sneezes when packing a case for export & a Thai worker inhales whilst unpacking it, could it be transmitted? Should we ban all Lazada imports? If it took less than 5 days to arrive and the Thai guy was unsanitary, it's a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Interesting caption in one of the photos in CNN's feed: https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-06-20-intl-hnk/index.html Does Chula have proper biolabs? I've posted this info from MoPH a couple times now, including above in this thread, but it seems to be not registering with you... Quote Laboratory testing via genetic sequencing from at least two reference laboratories, including the Department of Medical Sciences and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Thai Red Cross Society, are required to subsequently confirm 2019-nCoV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasThBKK Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Interesting caption in one of the photos in CNN's feed: https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-06-20-intl-hnk/index.html Does Chula have proper biolabs? Should be level 3 there too, same as Mahidol. Mahidol has BIO level 3 labs, which is high. Same level used in SARS and MERS research labs, after all they deal with ebola there which is as deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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