Thailand’s Tourism Council reports ZERO bookings following coronavirus outbreak

[KC 71]

17 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

Which hotels and where in Thailand?

Here, in Isaan, the price of hotels remains the same; it starts at 250 baht a night; airco, color TV, very often flat screen, bathroom with hot water ... free WiFi ...

What more ?

Seaview ?

ah that, we don't have, but view of the sugar cane processing plant, we have ...

Is it possible to pay for the room by the hour ?

[bkkcanuck8]

3 hours ago, Canuck1966 said:

The real numbers are being suppressed.

Tencent, one of the largest companies in China, 'accidentally' posted the real numbers.

The real numbers might be suppressed, but I highly doubt the CCP would have the 'highly sensitive' (aka secret) numbers available to Tencent to accidentally publish online.  The more likely cause is that it was just garbage that got into what they were posting.  If the numbers where secret they would only be viewable in something like a SCIF, or from a secure terminal in the equivalent.

 

It would also mean that the virus in China has a mortality rate of around 17% while outside it has a mortality rate of 1% or less.   It does not pass a sanity check..

Edited February 7, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[anchadian]

The latest from the WHO Thailand:

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/thailand/20200206-tha-sitrep-01-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=4137459f_2

 

HIGHLIGHTS  As of 6 February 2020, 25 laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV cases have been reported by health authorities in Thailand, most of them persons from China, including Wuhan city of Hubei Province, who visited Thailand.  Besides these cases, 595 persons in Thailand have been under investigation for 2019-nCoV, with tests still being carried out on the majority of them, while others have been treated for symptoms and discharged

[Assurancetourix]

13 minutes ago, KC 71 said:

Is it possible to pay for the room by the hour ?

generally these hotels have two prices:
a light for a few hours and I guess you know why ..
and a more expensive one for the whole night.

[Assurancetourix]

7 minutes ago, anchadian said:

HIGHLIGHTS  As of 6 February 2020, 25 laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV cases have been reported by health authorities in Thailand, most of them persons from China, including Wuhan city of Hubei Province, who visited Thailand.

 

This proves the irresponsibility of this government; 
if they had taken drastic measures, ie to prohibit the entry of the territory to all Chinese, which most of the responsible governments do ... We would not be there ..
Of course 25 is a very small number but how many will there be in 12 or 14 days, the time of the silent incubation which does not allow us to know if we are infected or not.

[BoonToong]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

He added that the industry as a whole must take good care of the other tourists who remain in Thailand,

Yeah, until the Chinese come back again, then they'll be forgotten again 

[smiggley]

Thai tourism shouldn't put all their eggs in one basket, time to look after the long term residents a bit better.

[waders123]

Here is a few wild Thoughts to improve their tourism downturn:

1. Extend the visas with no charge for westerners up to a period of say 4 months
2. Do the simple visa changes/extensions over the internet instead of fighting the lines at immigration
3. Stop requiring tourists to register multiple times where they stay when they traveling around the country
4. In other words make it more welcoming, streamlined, and more hassle free for the western expats to come and visit and they might just seeing a mass increase in western tourism again.

 

[DLock]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

That has been my argument all along.They have not tested everybody and the figures that are often quoted are derived from confirmed cases of infection (can't get accurate figures without testing everybody) and the conformed number of fatalities.Even the source I quoted say this.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

 The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases.

 

 

World Health Organization

The World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29, 2020[1][2]. However, thet specified that this is a very early and provisional estimate that may change. Surveillance is increasing, within China but also globally, but at the moment:

1. We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."[1][2]). 
2. The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
3. It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization [1][2].
4.  

 

I agree, they are fudging the numbers and only when the virus has played out and all those infected either recover or die, the mortality rate is useless and misleading.

 

So far 638 people have died and 1563 have recovered. There is a total of 31,481 infections of which 15% are listed as critical.

 

So, given the binary nature of recovery and death, the actual mortality rate is 28.7% as the remaining infections have not reached one of the 2 outcomes, so cannot be counted.

 

That is assuming that the numbers listed are accurate...

 

[DLock]

3 minutes ago, waders123 said:

Here is a few wild Thoughts to improve their tourism downturn:

1. Extend the visas with no charge for westerners up to a period of say 4 months
2. Do the simple visa changes/extensions over the internet instead of fighting the lines at immigration
3. Stop requiring tourists to register multiple times where they stay when they traveling around the country
4. In other words make it more welcoming, streamlined, and more hassle free for the western expats to come and visit and they might just seeing a mass increase in western tourism again.

 

 

The optimism of a Newbie brings a tear to my eye.

 

Dream on Newbie, we have all been where you are.

[bkkcanuck8]

16 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

I agree, they are fudging the numbers and only when the virus has played out and all those infected either recover or die, the mortality rate is useless and misleading.

 

So far 638 people have died and 1563 have recovered. There is a total of 31,481 infections of which 15% are listed as critical.

 

So, given the binary nature of recovery and death, the actual mortality rate is 28.7% as the remaining infections have not reached one of the 2 outcomes, so cannot be counted.

 

That is assuming that the numbers listed are accurate...

 

Problem with your logic is the timeline.   When you catch a virus you will feel fine for a while (asymptomatic, and not infectious), then the infection starts multiplying inside you and shortly thereafter the antibodies start being created to fight the infection.  If you become symptomatic and they order a test it will be returned first... that will indicate a confirmed case (it you are a mild case or an asymptomatic carrier you may never be counted).   With this virus the fever portion tends to break before you are at risk for ARDS [breathing difficulties - a subset].  There will be a point somewhere in the middle where the body has created lots of antibodies and will continue... the virus count will peak and then it will start to decrease over time.   You may then become asymptomatic again while the virus count continues to be reduced over a long period of time.  At a certain point you will not be contagious but you are still not "recovered" until the virus is completely out of your system.  This recovered value is likely many weeks after you are out of danger from the virus... in other words it is a trailing indicator.  You are trying to add up all the numbers on a single point of time but they exist along a timeline.  Mathematically what you are trying to do makes no sense.  When you consider all the confirmed cases double over 6.4 days it makes it even worse since you are not even dealing with linear numbers. 

 

What you will see is the recovered number will rise much faster and accelerate away from deaths over time.

Edited February 7, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[Srikcir]

On 2/6/2020 at 10:02 AM, darksidedog said:

And as most of the eggs had been put into one basket, the super storm for tourism has now arrived.

In circa 2012 tourism accounted for 10% GDP.

Since then the military government and now pro-military government ramped up tourism to 20% GDP as exports and domestic markets shrank largely unaided.

The government has heavily borrowed for infrastructure projects and adopted aggressive subsidy socialist-styled programs that further its reliance on foreign tourism. It has continued an aggressive military hardware acquisition program. None of which contribute in the short term to GDP growth.

More needs to be done than to alter government economic priorities - it's the government itself that deserves scrutiny as the appropriate solution to the nation's financial survival.

[waders123]

15 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

The optimism of a Newbie brings a tear to my eye.

 

Dream on Newbie, we have all been where you are.

Thanks DLock!  I am glad you agree about my optimism!  We can always dream....LOL  Have a good one!????

[AboutThaim]

15 hours ago, Cranky said:

Just tried an onion eye-wash and a testicle in a vice, nothing, dry as a Nun's hooha.

Maybe try some turpentine on your goolies. Should work! LOL

[DLock]

18 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Problem with your logic is the timeline.   When you catch a virus you will feel fine for a while (asymptomatic, and not infectious), then the infection starts multiplying inside you and shortly thereafter the antibodies start being created to fight the infection.  If you become symptomatic and they order a test it will be returned first... that will indicate a confirmed case (it you are a mild case or an asymptomatic carrier you may never be counted).   With this virus the fever portion tends to break before you are at risk for ARDS [breathing difficulties - a subset].  There will be a point somewhere in the middle where the body has created lots of antibodies and will continue... the virus count will peak and then it will start to decrease over time.   You may then become asymptomatic again while the virus count continues to be reduced over a long period of time.  At a certain point you will not be contagious but you are still not "recovered" until the virus is completely out of your system.  This recovered value is likely many weeks after you are out of danger from the virus... in other words it is a trailing indicator.  You are trying to add up all the numbers on a single point of time but they exist along a timeline.  Mathematically what you are trying to do makes no sense.  When you consider all the confirmed cases double over 6.4 days it makes it even worse since you are not even dealing with linear numbers. 

 

What you will see is the recovered number will rise much faster and accelerate away from deaths over time.

 100% agree. My simple logic is just binary outcome based, and until 100% of the infected die or recover, the 2% number quoted by media or comparison to SARS is meaningless.

[DLock]

18 minutes ago, waders123 said:

Thanks DLock!  I am glad you agree about my optimism!  We can always dream....LOL  Have a good one!????

You are the future.

 

We are all beat up and tired of hoping for change.

 

Stay optimistic.

[bkkcanuck8]

3 minutes ago, DLock said:

 100% agree. My simple logic is just binary outcome based, and until 100% of the infected die or recover, the 2% number quoted by media or comparison to SARS is meaningless.

Yes, and although WHO and CDC will have more more advanced models.   It is all we have to work with if we want to work with factual numbers.  If you want to model it you would have to take into account many different numbers. 

 

A simplistic model would be to adjust the confirmed cases in the timeline to match the point in time that patients will be out of danger (post symptomatic).  In this model I will assume the average length of this stage to be 10 days (based on some doctors reporting), within this range they will have a good idea of those that are no longer in danger - probably around 2/3 through this stage - i.e. the odds of full recovery is as good as it can get without waiting to categorize it.  The disease doubling rate is 6.4 days, so if we have 31481 cases now, 6.4 days ago we would have 15740 confirmed cases to match the 638 confirmed deaths.  This would calculate out to a confirmed mortality rate of 4%.   There is a substantial number of people that have mild symptoms and would not go to hospital (worst place to be if you want to avoid getting sick if you can avoid it)... so this number would likely be somewhere between the 2% and the 4%... so I would estimate that the actual mortality rate would be closer to something like 3%.   As far as pandemics go this is not actually that bad.

 

 

 

[geriatrickid]

What I don't understand is that  none of the hotels I have used over the past few years have reduced their current room rates. I would expect that if there is a shortage of visitors, there would be some rate discounting to encourage guests. Hard to be sympathetic to   businesses without common sense.

[DannyCarlton]

2 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

What I don't understand is that  none of the hotels I have used over the past few years have reduced their current room rates. I would expect that if there is a shortage of visitors, there would be some rate discounting to encourage guests. Hard to be sympathetic to   businesses without common sense.

It's because the hotels that the Chinese zero baht tourists use are not one and the same as the hotels you use. That and a complete lack of Thai business acumen.

[moutamine]

All eggs in the same basket... ooouuu  that's gotta hurt.  Didn't you learn anything in your investment class... diversifying is the key!   Karma is bitch!!

Edited February 7, 2020 by moutamine

[Assurancetourix]

1 hour ago, waders123 said:

Here is a few wild Thoughts to improve their tourism downturn:

1. Extend the visas with no charge for westerners up to a period of say 4 months
2. Do the simple visa changes/extensions over the internet instead of fighting the lines at immigration
3. Stop requiring tourists to register multiple times where they stay when they traveling around the country
4. In other words make it more welcoming, streamlined, and more hassle free for the western expats to come and visit and they might just seeing a mass increase in western tourism again.

 

and while we're at it, give a ten-year resident card to all the farang who have lived here continuously for 10 years ...
Why not?
Me, that would suit me; It's been 14 years since I lived 365/365 in Thailand ...

 

But I think I can continue to dream ...  

[bkkcanuck8]

17 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

and while we're at it, give a ten-year resident card to all the farang who have lived here continuously for 10 years ...
Why not?
Me, that would suit me; It's been 14 years since I lived 365/365 in Thailand ...

 

But I think I can continue to dream ...  

Because you were and never have registed to be a permanent resident - therefore you cannot be one.  They would be happy to backdate 10 years a temporary resident card for 10 years though.  The problem is that you have chosen the path of applying for at most a 1 year temporary residence authorization annually all independent of one another.  Your choice now you have to live with it.  ????

[Assurancetourix]

8 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Because you were and never have registed to be a permanent resident - therefore you cannot be one.  They would be happy to backdate 10 years a temporary resident card for 10 years though.  The problem is that you have chosen the path of applying for at most a 1 year temporary residence authorization annually all independent of one another.  Your choice now you have to live with it.  ????

You didn't understand what waders123 wrote 
I added one ..
I know very well that I could ask ... and I never did ...

 

what I would like is that it be automatic ( and toc );
no need to ask by kneeling with your hands joined ten centimeters above the head ...

[smew]

yeah.. get Europeans to come back and then take better care of them..less:: rip-offs.. and scams... double pricing.... crime.... police double standards.... filthy sea water.. garbage.... for starters !!!!! 

[Assurancetourix]

2 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The disease doubling rate is 6.4 days, so if we have 31481 cases now, 6.4 days ago we would have 15740 confirmed cases to match the 638 confirmed deaths.  This would calculate out to a confirmed mortality rate of 4%.   There is a substantial number of people that have mild symptoms and would not go to hospital (worst place to be if you want to avoid getting sick if you can avoid it)... so this number would likely be somewhere between the 2% and the 4%... so I would estimate that the actual mortality rate would be closer to something like 3%.   As far as pandemics go this is not actually that bad.

 

Except that the official figures are completely false :

 

" Citing figures inadvertently released by the Tencent’s Epidemic Situation Tracker, Taiwan News reports that coronavirus infections are "astronomically higher than official figures".

According to the online newspaper, the Chinese social network Tencent may have accidentally released real data on deaths from the Wuhan virus.

The article claims that Tencent accidentally "showed that confirmed cases of new coronaviruses (2019nCoV) in China amounted to 154,023, 10 times the official figure. The number of suspected cases was 79,808, four times the official figure. "

Tencent's counter also indicated that the death toll was actually 24,589 - "astronomically higher" than the 300 deaths officially confirmed at the time.

The figures were quickly brought back to the official figures, but Chinese netizens were able to get screenshots before that happened.

 

We pass in a few hours more than 150,000 infected people
  and more than 24,000 dead (the real figure)

to 14,446 people infected and 304 dead (the official and phony figure)

 

It remains to be seen whether the Thai authorities are not doing the same thing;
that is, minimize the number of infections and the number of deaths as much as possible.

 

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Edited February 7, 2020 by Assurancetourix

[bkkcanuck8]

19 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

Except that the official figures are completely false :

 

" Citing figures inadvertently released by the Tencent’s Epidemic Situation Tracker, Taiwan News reports that coronavirus infections are "astronomically higher than official figures".

According to the online newspaper, the Chinese social network Tencent may have accidentally released real data on deaths from the Wuhan virus.

The article claims that Tencent accidentally "showed that confirmed cases of new coronaviruses (2019nCoV) in China amounted to 154,023, 10 times the official figure. The number of suspected cases was 79,808, four times the official figure. "

Tencent's counter also indicated that the death toll was actually 24,589 - "astronomically higher" than the 300 deaths officially confirmed at the time.

The figures were quickly brought back to the official figures, but Chinese netizens were able to get screenshots before that happened.

 

We pass in a few hours more than 150,000 infected people
  and more than 24,000 dead (the real figure)

to 14,446 people infected and 304 dead (the official and phony figure)

 

It remains to be seen whether the Thai authorities are not doing the same thing;
that is, minimize the number of infections and the number of deaths as much as possible.

 

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Simply put, if the official figures were classified secret tencent WOULD NOT have those numbers... they would be tightly controlled in SCIFs and by secure limited access.   They would not allow access outside top officials within the government.  No private company, no matter how friendly would have access...

 

Not to mention if the mortality rate were that high, there is no way that now the virus has escaped China that there would be a higher mortality rate in the non-Chinese numbers.  The containment has been lost for sufficient time for the numbers outside to reflect more the numbers inside China.

 

Therefore Occam's razor applies, bad data was posted online (1 assumption), or real number was accidentally posted AND the number outside of China is either incorrect in many countries or it is a statistical abnormality (more than 1 assumption).

Edited February 7, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[Assurancetourix]

4 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Simply put, if the official figures were classified secret tencent WOULD NOT have those numbers... they would be tightly controlled in SCIFs and by secure limited access.   They would not allow access outside top officials within the government.  No private company, no matter how friendly would have access...

This is also what the French and German governments believed;
and when they knew that the NSA had succeeded in spying on their leaders ..... they made a face.

[Isaanbiker]

On 2/6/2020 at 10:02 AM, darksidedog said:

I disagree. Problems have been mounting for some time, with many staying away from Thailand for a number of reasons, mostly of a home grown nature. Strength of the Baht, greed, fraud, danger etc. And as most of the eggs had been put into one basket, the super storm for tourism has now arrived.

I don't think that the "new government" had any positive influence in hotel room bookings. 

 

The virus is just one more reason not to book, IMOHO.

[Isaanbiker]

7 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

This is also what the French and German governments believed;
and when they knew that the NSA had succeeded in spying on their leaders ..... they made a face.

What these governments believed was is in no way what the people believed. Unfortunately. 

[spermwhale]

On 2/6/2020 at 2:53 PM, yogi100 said:

The scowls and frowns and sometimes the interrogations us falangs receive on arrival at BKK Airport tell us all we need to know.

 

Just like a picture a scowl or a frown and sometimes a gesture can be worth a thousand words.

 

From immigration? Tell me where in the world immigration is chatty and happy to see you? That's your complaint? They are not the welcoming committee.