Germany may face early Merkel exit, election after protegee stands aside

[webfact]

Germany may face early Merkel exit, election after protegee stands aside

By Madeline Chambers

 

Chancell\or Angela Merkel receives Valentine's Day flowers of the Central Gardening Association at the Chancellery in Berlin. Germany February 11, 2020, REUTERS/Michele Tantussi

 

BERLIN (Reuters) - Chancellor Angela Merkel's plan for an orderly succession is in ruins and the chances of an early election in Germany have risen after her conservative protegee, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, gave up her ambitions for the top job.

 

Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) will in the coming months choose who they want to lead the party and run as chancellor in the next federal election, due by October 2021. The same person will probably, but not necessarily, hold both posts.

 

It is to early to forecast how the situation will play out, but following are three possible scenarios.

 

1. MERKEL OUT, NEW ELECTION WITHIN SIX MONTHS

Merkel, an anchor of stability in Europe's biggest economy during her nearly 15 years in office, has said she will not seek re-election and stood down as party chair in 2018, handing over to Kramp-Karrenbauer.

 

But with the new possibility of a rival as party leader following Kramp-Karrenbauer's exit, Merkel might be forced to stand down early, which could prompt her Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners to walk away and trigger a snap election.

 

Pressure to get the issue sorted out quickly and to have the same person fill both posts could bode ill for Merkel.

 

Leading contenders for the CDU party chair and to be the chancellor candidate of the conservative "Union" alliance, comprising the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, Christian Social Union (CSU), are already circling.

 

Several senior conservatives, including CSU chief Markus Soeder, have urged the CDU to decide on its leadership soon, arguing that dragging out a contest until a party conference in December would hit the Union's poll ratings.

 

Support for the CDU in the eastern state of Thuringia has plummeted by nearly 9 percentage points since its lawmakers last week broke a post-war taboo and voted with the far right to install a state premier. Nationally, support is also ebbing.

 

Concern over such a decline might mean that the CDU acts by the summer or early autumn to choose a new leader and chancellor candidate such as Friedrich Merz, a long-time arch-rival of Merkel, with whom the chancellor may find it impossible to work.

 

For its part, the SPD may refuse to work with right-wingers Merz or Jens Spahn - especially if one of them was to replace Merkel as chancellor before an election - and pull the plug on the coalition, sending Germany to the polls.

 

2. MERKEL STAYS THROUGH EU PRESIDENCY; ELECTION EARLY 2021

Stability-loving Germans, however, prefer gradual change and want to avoid voting in the middle of Germany's presidency of the European Union in the second half of 2020.

 

Many conservative and Social Democratic lawmakers would like Merkel to play a leading role in negotiations with post-Brexit Britain and in shaping EU relations with China which will be top of the EU agenda in the presidency.

 

Merkel has declared she is looking forward to the EU presidency where she can employ her negotiating skills and deep experience in EU affairs - from the euro zone debt crisis to the 2015 influx of migrants. The presidency could help the conservatives show off their credentials ahead of an election.

 

Another factor is Merkel's largely undiminished popularity. Pollsters say many voters view her almost as a presidential figure and would prefer her to serve a full term.

 

All of this increases the chances of Merkel staying at least until the end of the year but could also allow a new leader to benefit from a bounce in the polls.

 

3. MERKEL SERVES FULL TERM, ELECTION IN AUTUMN 2021

Even if the CDU makes its leadership decisions quickly, some candidates could work with Merkel until the end of her term although she would be something of a lame duck.

 

Continuity candidate Armin Laschet, premier of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, is one such candidate and as a centrist would probably also be acceptable to the SPD.

 

This could also be the case if the conservatives pick Bavaria's Soeder to run as chancellor.

 

Although many regard Soeder as a strong candidate, no CSU leader has yet been German chancellor.

 

(Reporting by Madeline Chambers; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-02-12

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[clarky cat]

It doesn’t matter when she leaves, the irreversible damage has been done

[Sydebolle]

Merkel is a lame duck in the departure lounge of power .........

CDU stands for Christian Democrats Union; over the fact that she forgot her christianity in running Europe in general and Germany in particular she now leaves behind Germany in a most shattered way while christianity is on the way to become politically incorrect - see Islamistic overrun by asylum chancers; sponsored by the (mainly) German tax payer. 

Once she is out, her place holder Von der Leyen (who moved from Germany's defence minister post), presently president of the European commission, will move aside or gets buried so the warmed seat can be taken over by Merkel. After that you can only guess = Merkistan? 

[tlandtday]

She has been a disaster for Germany and for Europe.  Get rid of the evil munchkin as quickly as possible.

[mercman24]

her only claim to fame is to make europe the trash can of  immigrants, she single handedly, has brought europe to its knees, every single country over run with free loaders

[hhinhh]

Her first aim was to maintain her power. No movement forward (wrongly abserved as stability), no future visions during many years while Germany fell back behind others constantly. She even was not able to mange her onw decent resign. Now I hope she will be pushed away the earier the better.

[Matzzon]

Nevermind, she has never had any real power or decided anything anyway. She´s just a puppet controlled by the masters.

[micmichd]

2 hours ago, Sydebolle said:

Merkel is a lame duck in the departure lounge of power .........

CDU stands for Christian Democrats Union; over the fact that she forgot her christianity in running Europe in general and Germany in particular she now leaves behind Germany in a most shattered way while christianity is on the way to become politically incorrect - see Islamistic overrun by asylum chancers; sponsored by the (mainly) German tax payer. 

Once she is out, her place holder Von der Leyen (who moved from Germany's defence minister post), presently president of the European commission, will move aside or gets buried so the warmed seat can be taken over by Merkel. After that you can only guess = Merkistan? 

I'm a German pensioner, and I don't give a damn who works for the German pension funds. One thing I do know: the green Germans including the Fridays for future kids are too lazy to work. So I would prefer working immigrants in Germany. 

[micmichd]

3 minutes ago, hhinhh said:

Her first aim was to maintain her power. No movement forward (wrongly abserved as stability), no future visions during many years while Germany fell back behind others constantly. She even was not able to mange her onw decent resign. Now I hope she will be pushed away the earier the better.

German steeple don't care. They'd accept everyone who promise them some kind of peace and welfare (regardless whether they work or not) 

If Angela Merkel gets pushed up towards the leadership of the EU, then the EU will break in pieces, and so will Germany. I have no empathy for either. 

[Baerboxer]

26 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Nevermind, she has never had any real power or decided anything anyway. She´s just a puppet controlled by the masters.

 

And who might the "masters" be?

[Baerboxer]

Macron must be pissing himself laughing. He has Barnier watching Ursula like a hungry hawk. With Mutti gone, and German coalition partners not happy he probably thinks now's his time to swoop and take the EU under French, or to be precise, his control.

 

Sod the fact that France is virtually under constant protests to his rule. 

 

 

[Sydebolle]

2 hours ago, micmichd said:

I'm a German pensioner, and I don't give a damn who works for the German pension funds. One thing I do know: the green Germans including the Fridays for future kids are too lazy to work. So I would prefer working immigrants in Germany. 

Could not agree more with you but most of those migrants are asylum chancers and have no intention to work = no contribution to pension funds 

[melvinmelvin]

Why did AKK "vanish" from races?

 

 

[sawadee1947]

9 hours ago, clarky cat said:

It doesn’t matter when she leaves, the irreversible damage has been done

Can you explain what you mean? 

[sawadee1947]

1 hour ago, Sydebolle said:

Could not agree more with you but most of those migrants are asylum chancers and have no intention to work = no contribution to pension funds 

Really? 

More than half get a job within the first 3 years. 

Those people who escaped Eastern Germany before 1989 you would call asylum chancers? 

What a BS! 

[puipuitom]

7 hours ago, micmichd said:

I'm a German pensioner, and I don't give a damn who works for the German pension funds. One thing I do know: the green Germans including the Fridays for future kids are too lazy to work. So I would prefer working immigrants in Germany. 

I agree. Over a 1/3 of all immigrants already had a job in Aug 2018. Pity so many from Marocco, Algeria, Tunesia etc, Albania, Georgia joined the lines. What to do ? Use the DDR-system: shoot to kill everyone who want to cross the border ( then out, now in ? ) When these countries would have taken back their - mostly half till full criminal young - men with also problems to respect women, Merkel was now declared a SAINT

 

More than 300,000 refugees have now found jobs in Germany ...

https://qz.com/1364947/more-than-300000-refugees-have-now-found-jobs-in-germany/

21 Aug 2018 ... More than 300,000 refugees have now found jobs in Germany ... Young migrants, once trained, could be a boon for German employers, who …

[puipuitom]

10 hours ago, Sydebolle said:

Merkel is a lame duck in the departure lounge of power .........

CDU stands for Christian Democrats Union; over the fact that she forgot her christianity in running Europe in general and Germany in particular she now leaves behind Germany in a most shattered way while christianity is on the way to become politically incorrect - see Islamistic overrun by asylum chancers; sponsored by the (mainly) German tax payer. 

Once she is out, her place holder Von der Leyen (who moved from Germany's defence minister post), presently president of the European commission, will move aside or gets buried so the warmed seat can be taken over by Merkel. After that you can only guess = Merkistan? 

Merkel to accept the presidency of the EU Commission? Never. Maybe the presidency of the EU Council, the real power in the EU, of which ONLY a former leader of government of an EU member state can be called at ( Then Tusk - Poland, now Michel- Belgium).

Different as in the USA, a German Bundeskanzler is appointed by her party. As long as the CDU stays so overwhelming in power, their appointee as Bunderkanzler has influence, whoever that might be.

[puipuitom]

7 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

Macron must be pissing himself laughing. He has Barnier watching Ursula like a hungry hawk. With Mutti gone, and German coalition partners not happy he probably thinks now's his time to swoop and take the EU under French, or to be precise, his control.

 

Sod the fact that France is virtually under constant protests to his rule. 

Just learn history: Barier could have got the job of Junker, but all preferred him to do the negociations with the British for Brexit. Different as in the UK, where you need to win a constituency, in the EU knowledge and skills are a necessity

[Sydebolle]

On 2/12/2020 at 2:48 PM, sawadee1947 said:

Really? 

More than half get a job within the first 3 years. 

Those people who escaped Eastern Germany before 1989 you would call asylum chancers? 

What a BS! 

You, quite obviously, have not been in Germany for a while and certainly not in the recent past. 

And comparing this avalanche of asylum chancers with political refugees from the GDR prior to 1989 is absolute rubbish. The separation was a result of the zoning of Germany after 1945 and those living in the Soviet zone (GDR or German Democratic Republic) were likewise Germans with either family ties across the wall or severe political fears. I know as I was there! 

[micmichd]

1 hour ago, Sydebolle said:

You, quite obviously, have not been in Germany for a while and certainly not in the recent past. 

And comparing this avalanche of asylum chancers with political refugees from the GDR prior to 1989 is absolute rubbish. The separation was a result of the zoning of Germany after 1945 and those living in the Soviet zone (GDR or German Democratic Republic) were likewise Germans with either family ties across the wall or severe political fears. I know as I was there! 

East Germans blackmailed West Germany with invasion for the money (devices) 

"Kommt die D-Mark bleiben wir hier. Kommt sie nicht, geh'n wir zu ihr" - do I have to translate this for you? 

[Sydebolle]

4 hours ago, micmichd said:

East Germans blackmailed West Germany with invasion for the money (devices) 

"Kommt die D-Mark bleiben wir hier. Kommt sie nicht, geh'n wir zu ihr" - do I have to translate this for you? 

Well, that is something I do not know. The fall of the Berlin wall triggered off an entire domino effect but if it had a monetary invasive element ........

Yet, the GDR was isolated for 28 years (only) and by 1989 still many elder folks would remember the days before 5 August 1961. I am also not aware that GDR-citizens were non integratable nor non contributors to the West German GDP. 
The entire mess was a political mess which got cleaned up the German way round. Yes, some GDRs (and some West Germans too) would wish to have the GDR back. But the majority was happy with the reunification and certainly not the trigger of Germany's political mess of today. 

Today's mess dates back less than ten years and the flint is getting shorter daily as Berlin quite obviously seems not to see the writing on the wall. 

But conclusive comments would have to come from the Germans themselves ???? 

[3NUMBAS]

the euro is in the toilet as car factories are in the dumps due to no parts from china are arriving .france and germany face hard times due to brits leaving the giant ponzi scheme