Novel Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) - What you really need to know.

[rvaviator]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

I'm going to say something here that I'm sure I'll catch flak for from the known haters on this thread and those that continue to believe this outbreak is "somebody else's" problem, but I don't care.  It needs to be said.  You can give credence to it or not, but at the very least you should consider the possibility because it's actually pretty important.

 

Even though the popular notion right now is that Covid-19 originated in the Huanan seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, there's still no real firm evidence that substantiates the market as the actual origin of the outbreak.  I emphasize the word "origin"  

 

There's no question that the market contributed an important role in the epidemic, but there is yet no proof it was the actual source.  There is a big difference between a place contributing to an outbreak, and a place being the source of the outbreak.  It's important because identifying the actual source plays a huge role in containing the outbreak.   

 

There is strong evidence that the market was not the initial source of the outbreak.  Consider that the earliest date for first symptoms was reported as 1 December 2019, in a person who did not have any exposure to the market or to the remaining affected 40 people that were part of the first reports of symptoms, and 13 of the initial 41 people found with Covid-19 had no link with the market.

 

There are some as yet unproven theories as to the actual source that are being shrugged off as merely conspiratorial but one has some credence to it.  Personally, I don't think it's "tin foil hat" thinking to consider it might have escaped from a Bio-Lab, considering that the only level 4 biohazard lab (the highest biosafety level) in China which is equipped to study and deal with such deadly and emerging infectious diseases is located in Wuhan, and only 20 miles from the Huanan seafood wholesale market.  See link.

 

What's more, ahead of this lab's opening in January 2018, biosafety experts and scientists from the US expressed serious concerns that a virus could escape the lab.  Click to read article appearing in Nature. 

 

Also there is the acknowledged fact China has a poor record of containment in such facilities as evidenced when the SARS virus escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, which took a long time before they actually admitted that it had happened.  See the same article appearing in Nature.

 

I am free to voice my opinion (and it is only my opinion), and so I will.  I really believe this bio-lab could very well be the actual source.  It certainly explain why China's central government would cover up the outbreak during the initial 30 days.  It would also explain why China so far has ignored repeated offers from the United States Center for Disease Control to send scientists over to help (probably the best in the world at dealing with viral outbreaks), the first offer coming back in December. Of lesser importance but still significant, the market was closed on 1 January 2020 for sanitary procedures and disinfection (which of course had to be done) in such a way that any sort of forensic investigations at the time were a low priority, and are now impossible. 

 

Why do they continue stonewalling repeated offers, and now are only allowing scientists from WHO to come in (an organizations that has proven to be seriously flawed so far in this outbreak), and seems more concerned with protecting China's economic interests than the health and safety of the global community)

 

I think a logical explanation for all of this is that China's ruling party, the CCP, screwed up big time and they know it.  They are now furiously trying to fix the mess they've caused before allowing anyone from the outside to see how bad they screwed up (saving face) , not to mention saving face with their own citizens for perpetrating this on them, and then going on to deceive them, saying all is well, all is under control.  It is not under control.

Well, Nature have this to say ...

 

from your link above ....

 

[WaveHunter]

42 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

I think the use of the word 'stories' by the Editors of Nature is pejorative.

Have it your way if you like.  I don't really think it matters what an editor's note says or (with all due respect) how you interpret their writing language.  I think that's a stretch. 

 

If Nature's Editors thought the theory was bunk they would have come right out and said it in no uncertain terms.  Instead they referred to it as an unverified theory, and I agree with that 100%.  At this point in time that is exactly what it is.  Just like the multiple accidental SARS release in Beijing was also an "unverified" story until the coverup was exposed.  

 

All I really care to say is that these undeniable facts make me highly suspicious and should make you so as well:

 

• Initial NOCV-19 cases back in early December had absolutely no link to the Huanan seafood wholesale market in Wuhan. (probably my biggest question mark of all)
• Warnings were voiced by experts before the opening of the Wuhan BioLab that there was a likelihood that viruses could escape from the facility, and that China was not well equipped to run such a facility safely.
• This Wuhan BioLab facility is located less than 20 miles from the Marketplace.
• The accidental release of SARS on at least 3 occasions from a similar government facility near Beijing that was covered up by the government until the coverup was finally exposed.

 

These are absolutely undeniable facts from extremely reliable sources, the most noteworthy being The Lancet in the case of the initial NCOV-19 cases, and I provided links to well vetted sources on the other two points even though most people widely accept them as facts now.

 

Is it evidence that the marketplace is not the source and the BioLab is?  No, of course not.  But do these facts make it a plausible possibility?  I think the answer is yes.

 

Certainly you're entitled to believe what you wish, but it's really hard for me to believe you would not also have serious questions about this topic as I do, given these facts.

Edited February 15, 2020 by WaveHunter

[SkyFax]

21 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Have it your way if you like. 

Thank you. I like.

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, rvaviator said:

Well, Nature have this to say ...

 

from your link above ....

 

Yes, I am aware of the Editor's note, and I agree  there is no currently verifiable evidence.  I don't really feel that strongly that there was a biolab breach or that Ncov-19 even existed within the lab but it should not just be ruled out without investigation for some pretty good reasons which I highlight below.

 

I'm only really saying that the actual source of the virus is very much in question, and there is a big problem with the marketplace being the actual source.  There is no doubt that the market contributed greatly to the outbreak, but was it really the source?

 

My big issue with the market place being the source is simply that the initial NOCV-19 cases back in early December had absolutely no link to the Huanan seafood wholesale market in Wuhan. That comes from The Lancet, so that is an incredibly reliable source.

 

Secondly, as reported in Nature, warnings were voiced by experts outside of China, just before the opening of the Wuhan BioLab, expressing their serious concerns that viruses could escape from the facility, and that China was not well equipped to run such a facility safely.  

 

And of course there is the fact that the biolab is less than 20 miles from the Marketplace.

 

Finally, this would not be the first time a dangerous pathogen has been accidentally released in China.  The accidental release of SARS on at least 2 occasions from a similar government facility near Beijing occurred back in 2004.  It was covered up by the government until the coverup was finally exposed. (see https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC416634/)

 

There is also the SARS outbreak of 2003 itself.  The story of how it really got started in a PLA hospital, the government's cover-up, the whistleblower who exposed it and what happened to him are now well known but they were not during the outbreak.  I just see a lot of parallels between how the SARS epidemic got started and the current situation with NCOV-19.

 

You can read more about how SARS really started here, in case you don't know.  it's not a pretty story.:  

https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/clm8_jm.pdf

 

All of this just makes me suspicious that perhaps the Marketplace is not the source, and I'd like to know what actually is, and whether or not the CCP is to blame, because quite frankly I think they are covering up a lot of things they do not want anyone to know...but of course that's just my own opinion.

 

Edited February 15, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Seaspray]

3 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

These are absolutely undeniable facts from extremely reliable sources, the most noteworthy being The Lancet in the case of the initial NCOV-19 cases, and I provided links to well vetted sources on the other two points even though most people widely accept them as facts now.

I wouldn't bother. They aren't going to download the PDF and supplementary materials, read it thoroughly, understand it, and be able to synthesize it into a composite picture with all of the other studies available to figure out what is actually going on. That takes time, application of reason, and a little bit of inductive intuition to see beyond the surface that is presented in the New York times. Digging deeper than Twitter to learn about virus recombination during zoonotic transmission and that little nugget the Lancet gave is beyond keyboard warriors in general.

 

Far better to run off existing heuristics embedded in the mind from past events and implanted during indoctrination at your favorite institution. Then regurgitate it as if it was actual knowledge, and laugh at those analyzing real-time reports from respected and credentialed epidemiologists. So much easier.

 

I would suggest dropping any discussion of the 'origin' in this thread you started since it obviously touches some 'cognitive dissonance' circuit within many, and focus on the clinical presentations of the disease itself, recent accredited studies, and possible actions to prevent rapid spread. Otherwise this will likely be shut down, serving no one.

[WaveHunter]

19 minutes ago, Seaspray said:

I wouldn't bother. They aren't going to download the PDF and supplementary materials, read it thoroughly, understand it, and be able to synthesize it into a composite picture with all of the other studies available to figure out what is actually going on. That takes time, application of reason, and a little bit of inductive intuition to see beyond the surface that is presented in the New York times. Digging deeper than Twitter to learn about virus recombination during zoonotic transmission and that little nugget the Lancet gave is beyond keyboard warriors in general.

 

Far better to run off existing heuristics embedded in the mind from past events and implanted during indoctrination at your favorite institution. Then regurgitate it as if it was actual knowledge, and laugh at those analyzing real-time reports from respected and credentialed epidemiologists. So much easier.

 

I would suggest dropping any discussion of the 'origin' in this thread you started since it obviously touches some 'cognitive dissonance' circuit within many, and focus on the clinical presentations of the disease itself, recent accredited studies, and possible actions to prevent rapid spread. Otherwise this will likely be shut down, serving no one.

Look, none of this is "rocket science".  You don't need a PhD or MD to grasp the basic truth.  All it takes is the willingness to make yourself well-informed from reliable, well vetted sources, have an objective mindset, and take responsibility decide for yourself what the truth really is...not just what someone else tells you it is.

 

Doing that is not just your right; it's your responsibility in a free and open society.

 

Just being allowed to do that because we live in a free society is a pretty precious gift that too many of us just take for granted.  Most people living in places like China or North Korea don't have that luxury, and the ones that do actually think for themselves and speak out are pretty brave and special people IMO.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2020 by WaveHunter

[orang37]

For all of us, there is the temptation to create opinions as a form of opiate to placate/numb intolerable uncertainty of diffuse, potentially mortally dangerous, threats. The opinion is often an unverifiable assumption of a causal relation between diverse phenomena. Or, we extrapolate from past experience even when what we extrapolate from is a very different phenomenon: Covid-19 is not a Flu.

 

Science strives to generate hypotheses about the degree of correlation between observed phenomena, and, from hypotheses generate models that can be tested, by experiment, with the goal of creating plausible theories of causation that can be tested further through review and experimental replication.

 

Questioning one's own assumptions does not imply indifference to the human tragedy unfolding here, or its very dangerous potential to become a pandemic.

 

Right now, the main thing I am scared of is what I see in the mirror.

 

~o:37;

 

[WaveHunter]

4 minutes ago, orang37 said:

For all of us, there is the temptation to create opinions as a form of opiate to placate/numb intolerable uncertainty of diffuse, potentially mortally dangerous, threats. The opinion is often an unverifiable assumption of a causal relation between diverse phenomena. Or, we extrapolate from past experience even when what we extrapolate from is a very different phenomenon: Covid-19 is not a Flu.

 

Science strives to generate hypotheses about the degree of correlation between observed phenomena, and, from hypotheses generate models that can be tested, by experiment, with the goal of creating plausible theories of causation that can be tested further through review and experimental replication.

 

Questioning one's own assumptions does not imply indifference to the human tragedy unfolding here, or its very dangerous potential to become a pandemic.

 

Right now, the main thing I am scared of is what I see in the mirror.

 

~o:37;

 

Opinions are like *ssholes as they saying goes; everybody's got one LOL  The thing is, opinions are only as good or as bad as you allow them to be.  If they are based on good information and sound reasoning, they can change things for the better.  If they are based on misinformation or ignorance they can only make things worse.  I prefer the former to the latter.  That's my take on having opinions ????

 

[Sheryl]

5 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

While the editor's note may have been "polite and professional", the use of the word "stories" has no meaningful implication at all.  For an editor, the word is simply synonymous with articles or reports.  Not wishing to to be impolite, but I think the inference of the word is more yours than theirs

 

I provided documented and undeniable facts (links to sources included) that make me question the plausibility of the market place as the source, and make me seriously consider the bio-lab.  In summary they are:

 

• Initial infected cases back in early December had no link to the marketplace. (probably my biggest question mark of all)
• Warnings were voiced by experts before the opening of the Wuhan BioLab that there was a likelihood that viruses could escape from the facility, and that China was not well equipped to run such a facility safely.
• The actual release of SARS on at least 3 occasions in Beijing that were covered up by the government until the coverup was finally exposed.

 

All I am saying is that I don't think it's a wise idea these days to simply accept what authorities and mass media throw out there as fact.  It often is far from it. 

 

If the truth is really important to you, you have to find well vetted sources of reliable information (and from more than one such source), consider all the information objectively, and then make up you rown mind about what is true and what is not.

 

There has never been prrof that SARs was released by the government, this is a a fringe conspiracy theory with no basis  in fact whatsoever.

 

There is clear proof that both SARs and the new coronavirus are zoonotic diseases which crossed into the human population, as often happens. 

 

As it appears the true agenda behind this thread is to spread misiniormation and conspiracy theories it is hereby closed.