Thailand reports two new virus cases, bringing total to 37

[Yadon Toploy]

31 minutes ago, Olmate said:

If you,re correct ,where is the social media input from friends family etc stating otherwise? Surely it would be out there loud and clear .Are you suggesting knowledge of these actual cases have been kept from family?Impossible!

I've already read several believable, and some possibly verifiable accounts online that are attributing sudden deaths of previously healthy people they know from pneumonia and other similar complications to this virus. 

 

It's not a long bow to draw in this situation.  Not saying they are true though...

 

As such, I choose to remain sceptical of government figures in the meantime. 

[tonbridgebrit]

So, Thailand is saying that 37 people have got this Corona Virus, and loads of people are saying that this number is not true. Okay, so let's put a nought on it, and say it's 370. Now, 370 cases, and let's say ten deaths. Let's get real, does that really mean Thailand is now a more dangerous place than previously ? Off-course not.

It's actually no big deal, bearing in mind about 50 to 100 people die in Thailand every day from road accidents.

Thailand is trying to say, that all tourists should simply carry on turning up in Thailand. Thailand has not become more dangerous because of this Corona Virus. Those of us who are in Thailand know that the virus has not made Thailand a more dangerous place to stay in. Anybody who is avoiding Thailand for a holiday, because of this virus, is mad.

[ChipButty]

34 minutes ago, Millcx said:

Sorry to say it seems you haven’t lived here long

2 Weeks

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, Olmate said:

If you,re correct ,where is the social media input from friends family etc stating otherwise? Surely it would be out there loud and clear .Are you suggesting knowledge of these actual cases have been kept from family?Impossible!

I can see your point and it is a good one except that you are assuming these unreported cases are symptomatic.  Many are probably asymptomatic or showing only mild symptoms and perhaps even unaware they have the virus.  Many may just go on to recover and think all they had was a case of the flu and never come to the attention of a hospital or public health officials.

 

Yet, they can still have a viral load during this time and be shedding the virus to others.  So, that's why it's a big deal.

 

Thai public health officials are aware there is a problem.  Just as I was, they are concerned why the number of cases have remained static, and are presently addressing that concern by revamping testing guidelines and throwing a wider net on searching for possible infections.  They have specifically stated that to date many have not been tested that should have been, and that many of the test results were unreliable giving both false negatives and false positives.

 

Based on their statements, I don;t think it's a question of the government's lack of transparency; I think they genuinely are in the dark at the moment...BUT they are taking steps to correct that, which is a GOOD thing.

 

 

 

[geriatrickid]

11 hours ago, unsubscribe said:

I'm hoping this is true as well. Advanced countries with aggressive testing (South Korea, Italy, Singapore) should provide a much clearer picture in the coming days/weeks.

People do not die right away. They linger and with advanced health care systems can live for 2-3 months or more going from one crisis to another. Based upon the Chinese data; 14% of confirmed cases have been “severe,” involving serious pneumonia and shortness of breath. 5% of infections developed respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multi-organ failure and  potentially resulting in death. In China, 2.3% of confirmed cases were fatal.  Even if some  recover, they are so weakened and  damaged that their pre-existing health conditions  become critical and they  die from those  chronic conditions.  That is why the 2-3% rate has to be put in context. 

 

Let me make it clearer, yes the direct cause of death rate is probably 2%, but the 2% is concentrated in people who are  50 years or older.  The long term death rate for people with chronic illness, or with damaged immune systems (i.e. due to cancer, diabetes, smokers) is probably a few times higher. If we  take out women who have a much lower mortality rate the death rate for males  goes up nearly 50%. When I do my calculations, it looks like the folks who will be dropping like flies will have the following profile;

Male, 50 years or older, smoker or who have lung damage, with a chronic health conditions such as diabetes and/or heart disease and/or hypertension. I expect a mortality rate closer to 10%. In contrast, Females under the age of 50 and in good health will have a negligible  mortality rate close to 0.  This means that we could  expect to see a large number of TVF members die if there is an epidemic of Covid 19 in Thailand. We can revisit in 6 months.

 

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, jewell49 said:

of course that is true, we are not all going to agree on everything however scare mongering on this very important subject is not helpful and i support the poster saying to keep all the speculating about Thailand officials under reporting the numbers of covid-19 cases, unless there is evidence of this, out of the conversation. Are there not enough people paniking.

Under reporting numbers creates a false sense of security which will allow the virus to spread faster. Which is worse, creating panic by fearmongering or creating an outbreak by false reporting? I think both are equally bad.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

It does not sound very accurate. If they have nCoV symptoms they will be immediately isolated and tested, if not there is no need to test. Also they can't test in Chiang Mai, they can only test at the government science center. Maybe this can help.

 

While people who have fevers in hospitals are very common, anyone whose temperature rises over 37.5 °C will be quarantined and tested for H1N1, influenza A & B, and RSV viruses. If the flu tests are negative, the patient will have a blood sample taken to be sent to the government science center to test for the coronavirus.

It is well worth noting that all hospitals across the country strictly follow the Ministry of Public Health’s protocols and they work hand in hand with Thailand DDC and other health organizations.

 

https://thethaiger.com/medical/thailands-hospitals-well-equipped-to-handle-coronavirus-patients

 

There is another article about screening in the paper whose name cannot be named dated Feb 22

That doesn't seem to match the instructions from MoPH itself: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

Quote

1) Patient with fever ≥37.5 °C with any of the following respiratory symptoms (cough, runny nose, sore throat, tachypnea, or shortness of breath, or difficult breathing) and within 14 days prior to symptom onset patient:

  a. Has recently returned from or lived in the area affected by the outbreaks of COVID-19 (China) or;

  b. Work or has occupation that close contact with tourists from the area affected by the outbreaks of COVID-19 or;

  c. History of close contact with a confirmed case of COVID-19 infection

2) Patient with pneumonia of unknown etiology with history of close contact with a suspected case of COVID-19 infection

3) Health care personnel with pneumonia of unknown etiology

4) Patient with severe pneumonia of unknown etiology

 

You also need to have a, b or c to qualify as a PUI. 

[Millcx]

7 hours ago, ChipButty said:

2 Weeks

Your first thought bud was 100% correct then 

[rabang]

8 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

Thailand is trying to say, that all tourists should simply carry on turning up in Thailand. Thailand has not become more dangerous because of this Corona Virus. Those of us who are in Thailand know that the virus has not made Thailand a more dangerous place to stay in. Anybody who is avoiding Thailand for a holiday, because of this virus, is mad.

Anyone currently thinking of travelling to Thailand without a good reason is in my opinion mad. The situation might not be bad right now but we don't know where it's heading to in a few weeks time. What if it gets uncontrollable? What if other countries start imposing travel restrictions to Thailand as has already happened? What if on arrival back home you will be quarantined for two weeks? There are so many what ifs and uncertainties that I wouldn't risk it. Also with many places so empty and quiet it is not a good time for holiday. Maybe it feels nice not to have big crowds around but the mood is not as it should be. I myself am planning to go back home earlier than I had in mind. The only thing I am wondering about is how soon should I go.

[diddygq]

Total BS, numbers BS. What about the child at my son's school who just tested positive for the coronavirus??? What about his grandparents who he got it from? What about the hundreds or maybe thousands who they spread it to in the past week???

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, diddygq said:

Total <deleted>, numbers <deleted>. What about the child at my son's school who just tested positive for the coronavirus??? 

There have been far too many people posting similar stories that have later been found to be troll posts for us to believe you, sorry but that's the way it is.

[diddygq]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

There have been far too many people posting similar stories that have later been found to be troll posts for us to believe you, sorry but that's the way it is.

School at Prahurathai Don Muang was shut down yesterday after it was confirmed. 

[Yadon Toploy]

16 minutes ago, diddygq said:

School at Prahurathai Don Muang was shut down yesterday after it was confirmed. 

This is true according to my Thsi friends.

[Misab]

I would assume that Thailand has closed down for Chinese tourist as long as the corona crisis exist in this high level in China.

[Orton Rd]

All the Schools in Bkk have been closed yesterday for two days, reason unknown. Told by bil teacher and then went to the mall where it was packed with kids.

[tlandtday]

38 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

All the Schools in Bkk have been closed yesterday for two days, reason unknown. Told by bil teacher and then went to the mall where it was packed with kids.

They have said for smog as the govt has the coronavirus totally under control.  Amazing Thailand can cure coronavirus when the rest of the world suffers but cannot stop farmers burning fields lol.

[WaveHunter]

There are still many people on this forum who continue to cling to the belief that this outbreak is not a true crisis, that is just something that's happening in far away places and doesn't affect them personally.

 

They spew such nonsense like "The Flu is far more deadly", or "Car accidents in Thailand kill more people" as though those things somehow make this virus less dangerous, and then go absolutely ballistic when anyone who is simply well-informed and is thinking objectively shows genuine concern for what is unfolding. 

 

They accuse such people as being "scaremongers" or "alarmist" for showing concern, but never, ever offer anything that is science-based or factual to backup their assertions that "everything is just fine and there is nothing to worry about"

 

Well, this sort of behavior is classic throughout history when people are faced with crises.  As 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer stated:"

 

"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.”  

 

Another great philosopher, Aldous Huxley, had this to say, and it applies particularly well to all the naysayers out there:

 

"Facts do not cease to exists just because you wish to ignore them"

 

Anyone with an IQ greater than that of a box of hair recognizes how serious this situation is right now, not only in far away places, but right here in Thailand.  People who continue to deny the situation are not only being ignorant but irresponsible as well. 

 

It only takes one ignorant or irresponsible person to start an epidemic!  The three new cases in Thailand bringing the total to 40 now is proof of that! 

 

The man who brought the virus into Thailand from Japan and became the 38 confirmed case lied to public health officials for several days while in Hospital about travelling to Japan, claiming he had no recent travel history.  

 

As a result dozens of health care workers were exposed to the virus, and hundreds of people who he may have come in contact with since leaving Japan are now "persons under investigation PUI's"

 

If you think we're living is some sort of safe bubble here in Thailand, think again.

 

[Traubert]

10 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

There are still many people on this forum who continue to cling to the belief that this outbreak is not a true crisis, that is just something that's happening in far away places and doesn't affect them personally.

 

They spew such nonsense like "The Flu is far more deadly", or "Car accidents in Thailand kill more people" as though those things somehow make this virus less dangerous, and then go absolutely ballistic when anyone who is simply well-informed and is thinking objectively shows genuine concern for what is unfolding. 

 

They accuse such people as being "scaremongers" or "alarmist" for showing concern, but never offer anything concrete to backup their assertions that "everything is just fine and there is nothing to worry about"

 

Well, this sort of behavior is classic throughout history when people are faced with crises.  As 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer stated:"

 

"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.”  

 

Another great philosopher, Aldous Huxley, had this to say, and it applies particularly well to all the naysayers out there:

 

"Facts do not cease to exists just because you wish to ignore them"

 

Anyone with an IQ greater than that of a box of hair recognizes how serious this situation is right now, not only in far away places, but right here in Thailand.  People who continue to deny the situation are not only being ignorant but irresponsible as well. 

 

It only takes one ignorant or irresponsible person to start an epidemic!  The three new cases in Thailand bringing the total to 40 now is proof of that! 

 

The man who brought the virus into Thailand from Japan and became the 38 confirmed case lied to public health officials for several days while in Hospital about travelling to Japan, claiming he had no recent travel history.  

 

As a result dozens of health care workers were exposed to the virus, and hundreds of people who he may have come in contact with since leaving Japan are now "persons under investigation PUI's"

 

If you think we're living is some sort of safe bubble here in Thailand, think again.

 

Could be worse. The internet might fail..........

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Orton Rd said:

All the Schools in Bkk have been closed yesterday for two days, reason unknown. Told by bil teacher and then went to the mall where it was packed with kids.

I am told they are closed because of the protests against the government.

 

But your right, closing schools to fill malls won't slow the virus.

[Orton Rd]

Sounds a bit odd closing schools because of protests, I thought the brainwashing was more effective than that, now they are scared of 12 year olds all of a sudden.

[WaveHunter]

3 New Cases of Covid-19 added in Thailand bringing total to 40.  Case #38 lied to public health officials about travel to Japan for several days putting health workers and other patients at hospital at risk, not to mention the hundreds of people he may have come in contact with before he was tested as positive.

 

An elderly man checked into BK Hospital in Bangkok several days ago with cough and fever symptoms.  He lied about having travelled to Japan for several days until he tested positive, placing at least 30 hospital staff at risk during that period.

 

He had been to Hokkaido Island in Japan where sustained community transmission of the virus is occurring.  As a result of his attempt to conceal his travels, probably well over 100 people have possibly been exposed.  

 

He was on a tour with his wife and at least one other family member went on a group tour to Hokkaido from 16 Feb to 20 Feb.  On 20 Feb they flew back from Sapporo to Don Mueang International Airport on Air Asia Flight XJ621.  On that day the man started experiencing flu-like symptoms.  His wife began feeling sick at that time too.

 

So, it's possible that others were exposed at the airport, on the flight, and others who were on the tour.  When they returned home, they were in contact with their two grandchildren, one aged 8 year old. 

 

The 8 year old has tested positive and the other child is showing symptoms but test results are pending, but they went to school and possibly exposed other children and teachers. 

 

One of the other family members who was on the tour works at a bank and has been in to work so fellow workers and customers at that bank may have also been exposed.

 

I am listing these details to illustrate that it only takes ONE single person to potentially start an epidemic.  As a result of this one man lying to public health officials for several days, hundreds of other people are now Persons Under Investigation as Public health officials began tracking possible exposures.

 

For those people who still think this virus is not a threat to us here in Thailand, this should be sobering news.

 

Worldwide, transmission of the virus is becoming more and more community based once it becomes imported, and it only takes one person to import it in order for it to quickly become a community based transmission which is very clear when you look at the situation in South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran:

 

Source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf

 

Who would have thought, several weeks ago that any of these places would become global hot spots?

 

Thailand is actually considered by many epidemiological experts to be the #1 country highest at risk for importing the virus.  That's probably the main reason many other nations (as well as airlines) are banning or restricting travel to/from Thailand .

 

Here is a snippet from one of the studies that supports this assertion.  What is really important about this study is that it was written on 05 February and it accurately forecasted the present situation in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Italy!

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479v1.full.pdf

 

The big question is why Thailand (ranked #1 in the list) seem to be an outlier?  And the reason may simply be that Thailand has missed many cases in their screening processes, and even the Thai Ministry of Public Health acknowledges this may be true.

 

According to the Thailand's Department of Disease Control deputy director-general, Dr Thanarak Plipat, they were very concerned that the number of cases has remained unchanged for a couple of weeks.  He says, "Right now we have reached a point where we are not certain if there are new cases or we are simply unable to find them.  So, we have to work more aggressively to identify new infections as soon as possible"

 

As a result, they have seriously revised their screening and detection guidelines and new, more aggressive measure were put into place last week. 

 

The Ministry of Public Health has now tightened screening criteria in 8 provinces popular with Chinese tourists, acknowledging that previous screening efforts may not have been effective.

 

According to the deputy director-general, "...the increase in PUI reporting that occurred in the last week was a result of extended screening of passengers from South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau, instead of only China.

 

What this all means IMO is that the number of confirmed cases will probably increase to more accurately reflect the actual number of cases that are really inside Thailand right now. 

 

If the numbers were to double as a result of new screening that would not be so unexpected since it would only put them in line with the other countries in the top 5 of the table above.

 

If the numbers do rise, I think it will be more a matter of improved screening and detection, but new cases can't be ruled out either as the man from Japan clearly illustrates.

 

[SkyFax]

6 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

I am listing these details to illustrate that it only takes ONE single person to potentially start an epidemic.  As a result of this one man lying to public health officials for several days, hundreds of other people are now Persons Under Investigation as Public health officials began tracking possible exposures.

 

For those people who still think this virus is not a threat to us here in Thailand, this should be sobering news.

According to TheNation (at least for now):

 

On February 24, a lab test found him positive for Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for Covid-19, which has now put more than 30 hospital staff at risk.The patient has been transferred to a government hospital. Hospital staff who could be at risk of infection have tested negative for the virus but they are now in self-quarantine at home and will be retested after 7-14 days.

 

 

[WaveHunter]

6 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

According to TheNation (at least for now):

 

On February 24, a lab test found him positive for Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for Covid-19, which has now put more than 30 hospital staff at risk.The patient has been transferred to a government hospital. Hospital staff who could be at risk of infection have tested negative for the virus but they are now in self-quarantine at home and will be retested after 7-14 days.

 

 

Hoping for the best for them and all exposed for sure, but only time will tell since PCR tests have a lot of limitations, being highly prone to error and can have misleading or ambiguous results, particularly during early incubation when viral loads will still be low.

 

See Wiki for details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction

 

[SkyFax]

9 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

13 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

Hospital staff who could be at risk of infection have tested negative for the virus but they are now in self-quarantine at home and will be retested after 7-14 days.

Hoping for the best for them and all exposed for sure,

Whatever -- I just note that you did not include the above status report.

[WaveHunter]

20 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

Whatever -- I just note that you did not include the above status report.

That's because I didn't think it needed to be said (as in, "goes without saying" that they would be tested and be in quarantine), but thanks for adding it. 

 

The fact that they tested negative is erroneous at this point for the reasons I stated.  Only time will tell (i.e.: after quarantine)

 

To state that they tested negative at this point would be misleading and irresponsible.  Promising? Yes; For sure? No.  That is the whole rationale behind quarenteening.

 

[SkyFax]

17 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

The fact that they tested negative is erroneous at this point for the reasons I stated

It may be indecisive but that doesn't mean it's erroneous. But if you think it's misleading and irresponsible maybe you should contact the MOPH folks with your valued opinion on their evaluation procedures.

[WaveHunter]

5 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

It may be indecisive but that doesn't mean it;s erroneous.

Let's not play word games.  The implications of this news event are just too important to get lost in such "white noise"

 

[SkyFax]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

Could be worse. The internet might fail..........

As I was once told back in US, with blue PVC piping, everyone's a plumber.

 

With Google now, anyone can be an epidemiologist.

[WaveHunter]

5 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

As I was once told back in US, with blue PVC piping, everyone's a plumber.

 

With Google now, anyone can be an epidemiologist.

So, I guess what you are really saying is that being ignorant is preferable to being well informed?  You can live by that standard if you wish; I, and many others on this thread prefer not to.

[SkyFax]

1 minute ago, WaveHunter said:

9 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

As I was once told back in US, with blue PVC piping, everyone's a plumber.

 

With Google now, anyone can be an epidemiologist.

So, I guess what you are really saying is that being ignorant is preferable to being well informed?  You can live by that standard if you wish; I, and many others on thisthread prefer not to.

I never said that you were ignorant.