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PM Johnson warns Britons: more loved ones are going to die from coronavirus


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Posted
4 hours ago, rhyddid said:

Sure , after NHS is limiting the covid19 test to all UK population, lots will be infected and not knowing to be a Covid19 infected person will pass it to their own family members and the old people and immune depressed one will be killed.

BS BJ shall be taken to court for manslaughter !

In your dream.

Posted
9 hours ago, Bruntoid said:

Doesn’t get more OTT than that ! 
 

Seems to be a rather large IF in there to set off your panic! If you hold much confidence in your chief scientific advisor, why is the rest of the world telling Bojo he should have been acting on this 6 weeks ago ? (Presumably on his ‘advisors’ advice?) 

 

If we have no immunity why are there no reports of fitness instructors et al dying ?

my take is that the entry you commented on is pretty much to the point

 

 

Posted
16 hours ago, faraday said:

Are there any stats for deaths Vs age?

Yes there are. Western countries are pulling the greatest scam on earth by hiding their numbers. As I kept saying they simply cannot control it and hide the numbers by not testing every person they find in the contact tracing. 

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Posted
27 minutes ago, englishoak said:

 

Don't be ridiculous, your health is ultimately your responsibility not the governments. Testing takes time, resources and staff. No country has the amount of testing kits to do even a tiny % of the population and the UK is no different. 

 

There just arnt the methods or resources to do tests on everyone plus theres a  2 week incubation where it dosnt show anyway. You cant test the entire population every day to see whos showing positive, on top of that there are also false positives. No system has the beds to cope with a rapid jump in cases.

 

Yes people are going to die and the health service, doctors, nurses and carers are going to make the terrible decision of who gets a ventilator and who dosnt.. no one should have to make that choice but all around the world that is happening and it will in the UK too.

 

There is no immunity in the human herd as yet, it will go through ALL large countries like a scythe simply because we are connected like never in history, on the good side we have medicine, communication and much better health now than in history.. so many who would  die without our modern progress will now not.

 

The choices are lock everyone up be draconian to the very extreme and drag infected away and pile them up in death centers, treating people like animals like China has done or delay and deal with it over a longer period with calm, some dignity and hopefully less panic or . the UK is choosing the latter 

 

You just sound scared and confused as to what this really is tbh .. its a pandemic and many are going to die no matter what .. get used to seeing the death counts rise.. this is the year of the rat and a plague it is by any other historical standard. 

 

Reality is sometimes hard to bare... some things we cant magic away and this is one.

Exactly.  We have to accept draconian limitations on our freedoms in order to prevent this new disease becoming endemic.

 

Perhaps there may come a time when the world is separated into places where this disease is endemic, who were unsuccessful in their attempts to contain it, and places where it is rare, with strict quarantine; we did that with rabies.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, CartagenaWarlock said:

Yes there are. Western countries are pulling the greatest scam on earth by hiding their numbers. As I kept saying they simply cannot control it and hide the numbers by not testing every person they find in the contact tracing. 

Until theres a vaccine or cure, there is no point in testing people 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is listening to and following the advice of health and disease experts, he’s right to do so, his words and actions have consequences.

 

So do the words of people trolling conspiracy garbage and spreading baseless mistrust in the government’s response and advice.

 

 

 

 

 

If the intention is to slow the spread of the disease to a manageable level, while minimising the impact on society and the economy, we (meaning ‘they’) need to have a clear understanding of what is the tolerable level of infection, strain on the health services, and fatalities.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Until theres a vaccine or cure, there is no point in testing people 

We can quarantine people who test positive.  

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Posted
16 hours ago, AlexRich said:

The death rate in Italy is currently running over 6% of cases.

 

Obviously it is not.

 

If you read the excellent advice of the UK chief medical advisor you will have spotted that he admitted that the UK had around 5000 to 10000 cases, and only around 500 were identified. In other countries the figures would be similar.

 

So clearly the number of cases in Italy is much higher. If you factor in that it is ten times higher obviously your supposed death rate of over 6% is wrong.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, rickudon said:

Sweden is also limiting tests to those in hospital also.....

 

Globally, 50% rise in cases in the last 2 weeks, and a 60% rise in deaths. 1,000 a week now dying, maybe 10,000 a week by end of April? Not 'Nonsense' by then. We also have a problem with countries giving up on accurate reporting (e.g. Iran?).

 

Actually it is worse ..... the global figures are skewed by the old chinese cases. France has had a 28 fold increase in cases in the last 2 weeks ...... if not contained, maybe a 100,000 cases in France alone by the end of March! That would see the French health system on the point of collapse. We do not have months to stop this pandemic spreading...... only days.

 

The UK have already surrendered - no serious restrictions, and the top government health advisor is expecting 500,000 deaths. I presume the government is looking forward to the 300 million a month they will save in state pension, that will replace the non-existent Brexit dividend.

 

Yes, that was a bit of a faux-pas by Boris Johnson and his medical team, the part where they said to develop 'herd immunity' they expect 60% of the population of the UK will get the coronavirus.

 

So if 40 million Brits are to get coronavirus, that would mean deaths in the region of 400,000 to 1.2 million.

 

Quite a high price for 'herd immunity'. Not a strategy that fills you with confidence.

 

And football matches are postponed and cancelled but Cheltenham is on? What is the UK doing?

Edited by Logosone
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Posted
38 minutes ago, Logosone said:

...

 

And football matches are postponed and cancelled but Cheltenham is on? What is the UK doing?

Maybe they expect less than 500.

 

My son's football matches are cancelled, and they're lucky to get 22.

Posted

It is interesting to note that since the virus actually took hold in the UK the optimism that the authorities and the government were doing a good job has now evaporated. Many critics of the government and health service were on Sky today venting. Several said the response in China and Korea were models that the UK should follow - and the fact that they were not will come back to haunt them.

 

Rooster

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Posted
1 hour ago, StreetCowboy said:

Exactly.  We have to accept draconian limitations on our freedoms in order to prevent this new disease becoming endemic.

 

Perhaps there may come a time when the world is separated into places where this disease is endemic, who were unsuccessful in their attempts to contain it, and places where it is rare, with strict quarantine; we did that with rabies.

Its not possible to separate the world, only delay the spread and hopefully develop either a heard immunity or develop some for of vaccine... if lucky it might even burn out as it mutate and becomes less virulent or dangerous, but thats a hope and not looking likely atm. Unless its a bio weapon got out and tptb have methods to neutralise it somehow. 

 

It isnt containable like SARS and nothing like Rabies... its airborn, can live for a good time on surfaces and can survive as much as a week on hard, its not overly susceptible to cold and heat seems not to make much difference either, there is some ndication humidity levels make a difference and so far the badly hit regions are the upper northern hemisphere with a certain temp and humidity range, The world is so big that the pandemic is going to last all year are some regions succumb before others, like a ripple effect it will go around and return to places who have had it previously , it will like the 1918 flu have waves, we dont know the variation of the strains to come yet  but its likely to be with us without any treatment for at least a year maybe two or more...

 

Basically im saying given its already spread throughout the world and we are all connected its already become endemic and something the human race will have to now solve or live with. 

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Posted
56 minutes ago, StreetCowboy said:

Maybe they expect less than 500.

 

My son's football matches are cancelled, and they're lucky to get 22.

70,000 people flocked to Cheltenham.

 

But they cancel football matches.

 

So good to see it's all highly co-ordinated and organised. Makes total sense.

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Posted
2 hours ago, StreetCowboy said:

We can quarantine people who test positive.  

Anyone with flu like symptoms should stay at home anyway and not go out infecting everyone else 

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Posted
4 hours ago, sanemax said:

Anyone with flu like symptoms should stay at home anyway and not go out infecting everyone else 

Sorry for this shocking revelation but, not everyone can afford to take time off work and millions of people live with other people.

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Posted
6 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

Obviously it is not.

 

If you read the excellent advice of the UK chief medical advisor you will have spotted that he admitted that the UK had around 5000 to 10000 cases, and only around 500 were identified. In other countries the figures would be similar.

 

So clearly the number of cases in Italy is much higher. If you factor in that it is ten times higher obviously your supposed death rate of over 6% is wrong.

Your logic is flawed.

 

The UK and Italy have some significantly different cultural and social norms than the U.K.

 

Tactile greeting is one example but also it is extremely common in Italy for multigenerational families to live together.

 

Such social and cultural differences unquestionably impact the spread of the disease and place older people at a higher risk of contracting the disease than in the U.K. where large numbers of the old are socially isolated.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Your logic is flawed.

 

The UK and Italy have some significantly different cultural and social norms than the U.K.

 

Tactile greeting is one example but also it is extremely common in Italy for multigenerational families to live together.

 

Such social and cultural differences unquestionably impact the spread of the disease and place older people at a higher risk of contracting the disease than in the U.K. where large numbers of the old are socially isolated.

Gosh Chomps, you're really smart, I'll look at your posts from now on, in a different light.

 

*Laugh emoji*

 

Sarcasm aside, it's quite true about Italians. 

 

 

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Your logic is flawed.

 

The UK and Italy have some significantly different cultural and social norms than the U.K.

 

Tactile greeting is one example but also it is extremely common in Italy for multigenerational families to live together.

 

Such social and cultural differences unquestionably impact the spread of the disease and place older people at a higher risk of contracting the disease than in the U.K. where large numbers of the old are socially isolated.

Old and lonely in the UK so less likely to get the virus than the gregarious Italians. Poor souls.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

Unfortunately, miss the big picture. I shall quote from the Lancet's article of today;

The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020.

 

Italy does not have the resources for this. What do you think happens when a patient cannot access an ICU bed.

 

If you're going to quote the Lancet article on Italy quote this part as well: "If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend to that in China, we can suggest that the number of newly infected patients might start to decrease within 3–4 days from March 11. Similarly, we can foresee that the cumulative curve of patients who are infected will peak 30 days later, with the maximum load for clinical facilities for the treatment of these patients foreseen for that period.""

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext

 

Of course to look at the big picture is to extrapolate the worst case scenario figures for Italy, which according to the Chief Medical advisor in the UK means a ten to twenty multiple of recorded cases. So 176,000 actual cases for Italy. What the Lancet author has done is to look at the total of hospitalised patients and of those 9% and 11% are intensive care patients. However, if the UK Chief Medical Advisor is correct then most Covid19 cases will not even be identified, let alone hospitalised.

 

Whilst it is certain that the Italian hospitals will be under strain, it does not mean most, or even 6 or 11 percent of carriers will die.

 

So I have in no way missed the big picture, the big picture is still that Italy has between 176,000 to 352,000 cases. Mortality rate in Italy is betwen 0.3 and 0.8 per cent, perfectly in line with previous flu epidemics. You're not looking at the big picture because you're only looking at intensive care patient figures as a percentage of patients. However, you have to look at the bigger picture, like you say, namely that in Italy most likely 176,000 to 352,000 people are infected.

 

And this bigger picture would also include the Lancet author's other prediction, that the number of newly infected will start to decrease in the next few days. 

 

 

Your statement is your personal opinion. An illness is not  considered in respect to the  immediate direct mortality. Impact is also taken into consideration. People occupying the ICU can delay or prevent  appropriate medical care being delivered to others. Note that there is a considerable time period between onset of the illness and death. Patients have been in ICU for 30-60 days. This is why they do not show up in the death tally right away. 

Due to the high volume and the infectious disease characteristic, full post mortems are not being done. Some deaths are not necessarily being assigned to the infection. Every hospital is a madhouse now. medical care personnel have open wounds on their faces from their clothing, and many are exhausted. Errors will be made.

 

Okay, so you accept then that the mortality rate in Italy is much less than 6%, excellent. Your statement that there will be an ICU delay and patients will not get proper medical care is your opinion, it may or may not turn out to be correct. Your suspicion that errors will be made or that post mortems are not being done when they should be is just that, your personal opinion for which you have no clear evidence. Even if that were the case it would not invalidate the crucial point, that Italy has ten to twenty times the case figures it has identified, and that therefore mortality of Covid19 is 0.3 to 0.8, substantially in line with previous flu epidemics, which we have survived quite well.

 

 

 

Edited by Logosone

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