Must Read Can hot weather stop coronavirus? Southeast Asia surge raises doubts

[bristolboy]

5 minutes ago, xylophone said:

Okay, bad example, but the heat theory would suggest that viruses in the likes of hot countries don't exist, because the heat kills them – – but the trouble is it doesn't and strains of viral flu and the like are just as prevalent.

 

I worked in Nigeria and I quote this from a medical journal, "Influenza viruses have been an underappreciated contributor to morbidity and mortality in Africa" and it goes on to say that with hospitals few and far between and equipment for testing for viruses just as bad, that under reporting is rife.

 

Other viruses in sub Saharan Africa, for example, are not killed by heat. Or at least not the sort of heat that normal temperatures relevant to that country, reach.
 

Underappreciated. Ok. But that says nothing about the rate of transmission in Nigeria vs. the rate of transmission in countries with temperate climates. There may not be enough data yet but other corona viruses are affected by climatic conditions.

 

[ThaiBunny]

5 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

As far as airborne transmission goes, "it's not the heat it's the humidity." At least that's the theory.

Urban myth - https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/why-experts-doubt-warm-weather-will-slow-coronavirus-spread.html & http://theconversation.com/will-warmer-weather-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus-133208

[Matzzon]

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

The reason that knowledgeable people thought that hot weather might slow the spread of the virus was, to use a medical expression, "it's not the heat it's the humidity." Tiny particles like viruses don't travel as well in humid air. That said it may not make a difference. No one knows yet. This sharp rise could be just a statistical artefact or partially so. So it's a bit early to claim a victory lap.

Nope, I take the risk! I am sure I am right.

[Matzzon]

10 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

At least that's the theory

Yes, and that´s where it´s going to stay in the history books

[bristolboy]

Just now, Matzzon said:

Nope, I take the risk! I am sure I am right.

I'm sure statisticians and epidemiologists will take great comfort from that. And while you're enjoying your victory lap, you might want to contemplate this:

rtefacts, statistical and methodological A statistical artefact is an inference that results from bias in the collection or manipulation of data. The implication is that the findings do not reflect the real world but are, rather, an unintended consequence of measurement error. When the findings from a particular study are deemed to be—at least in part—a result of the particular research technique employed (see RESEARCH DESIGN), rather than an accurate representation of the world, they are sometimes said to be a methodological artefact.

https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/artefacts-statistical-and-methodological

[sirineou]

 

Hot Humid weather does not stop it slows its transmision down. Any mitigating effect hot humid weather might have can easily be negated by stupid human behaviour. 

Such as an estimated 500,000 attending Bike week in Florida last week. 

  On the bright side.  

" Coronavirus Update: Vaccine Skips Important Animal Testing Phase, Straight To Human Trials"

https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-update-vaccine-skips-important-animal-testing-phase-straight-human-trials-2941208

Let's hope the the Hot summer weather slows it down, People modify behaviour  to buy as some time. And the vaccine trials are successful. 

[Matzzon]

3 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

I'm sure statisticians and epidemiologists will take great comfort from that. And while you're enjoying your victory lap, you might want to contemplate this:

rtefacts, statistical and methodological A statistical artefact is an inference that results from bias in the collection or manipulation of data. The implication is that the findings do not reflect the real world but are, rather, an unintended consequence of measurement error. When the findings from a particular study are deemed to be—at least in part—a result of the particular research technique employed (see RESEARCH DESIGN), rather than an accurate representation of the world, they are sometimes said to be a methodological artefact.

https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/artefacts-statistical-and-methodological

Just copy and paste, man. Copy and paste.

[UbonThani]

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

[nauseus]

15 minutes ago, xylophone said:

Okay, bad example, but the heat theory would suggest that viruses in the likes of hot countries don't exist, because the heat kills them – – but the trouble is it doesn't and strains of viral flu and the like are just as prevalent.

 

I worked in Nigeria and I quote this from a medical journal, "Influenza viruses have been an underappreciated contributor to morbidity and mortality in Africa" and it goes on to say that with hospitals few and far between and equipment for testing for viruses just as bad, that under reporting is rife.

 

Other viruses in sub Saharan Africa, for example, are not killed by heat. Or at least not the sort of heat that normal temperatures relevant to that country, reach.
 

The stuff I've seen suggests not that viruses cannot exist in hot climates but that they transmit less well in hot conditions. Makes sense when you think about the flu season in The N. Hemisphere winter. 

 

I had the pleasure of working in Nigeria too - viruses were well down on the danger list there but yes health services and reporting are bad.    

[ThaiBunny]

4 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

Old news UbonThani (where is that exactly?)? The Economist magazine had a very long article in this week's edition (available last weekend) showing exactly where testing is at with existing drugs. Typical of a rag like the Daily Mail to sensationalise it. The headline says "cure", the body of the story reads "may cure"

Edited March 17, 2020 by ThaiBunny

[nauseus]

3 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Old news UbonThani (where is that exactly?)? The Economist magazine had a very long article in this week's edition (available last weekend) showing exactly where testing is at with existing drugs. Typical of a rag like the Daily Mail to sensationalise it. The headline says "cure", the body of the story reads "may cure"

The headline says this:

 

Have they found a cure for the coronavirus? Australian researchers claim two existing drugs could 'cure' COVID-19 after patients they tested responded 'very well' to treatment.

 

A question which says that the claimants say "could cure". I hope they are right. I think Thai doctors were doing similar experiments with HIV drugs a few weeks ago. 

[zydeco]

4 hours ago, justin case said:

think about thais and their precious WHITE SKIN will not allow themselves to absorb vitamin D from the  sun !!!!

I found something the other day about how sun and fresh air therapy was used in the 1918 pandemic and it is believed to have caused a 40 percent reduction in the death rate. Trouble is there is never any fresh air in Thailand anymore. But the idea that the sun has may kill the virus would be wonderful, especially now that the dry, sunny hot season is upon us in Thailand.

[UbonThani]

13 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Old news UbonThani (where is that exactly?)? The Economist magazine had a very long article in this week's edition (available last weekend) showing exactly where testing is at with existing drugs. Typical of a rag like the Daily Mail to sensationalise it. The headline says "cure", the body of the story reads "may cure"

They cured people.

 

So its not old news. It shows the drugs worked on people.

 

Of course they need official trials

[UbonThani]

 

Professor Paterson said it wouldn't be wrong to consider the drugs a possible 'treatment or cure' for the deadly respiratory infection. 

He explained that when the HIV medication lopinavir/ritonavir was given to people infected with the coronavirus in Australia it led to the 'disappearance of the virus'.

[justin case]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

From reading and listening, it seems an acceptable argument that this virus, like similar viruses, can live longer and transfer more effectively in cool, dry air, as it stays airborne for longer than in warm, moist air. Expelled particles (droplets) from our noses and mouths in warm moist air, will stay relatively large, mostly falling to and settling on the floor. The same particles in cool and dry air form much smaller droplets resulting in a fine mist that stays airborne - possibly for days - so that it is readily inhaled by others. When this virus kicked off and spread in Wuhan, the continental winter climate was cold and dry. The next main hot spots were Korea, Iran and Italy, all with similar seasonal climatic conditions.  

let me correct your science...

 

in cold countries, heat is used against the cold 

 

this dry heat (low humidity) will DRY OUT your mucus membranes

 

you are more easy to get a cold / virus and your mucus membranes are there for a reason and dried out = works less

 

When me/kid/other people I know, be in a 24/7 airco condition, they are prone to get sick as the airco also DRIES OUT the humidity, same as dry heat in cold countries

 

 

[zydeco]

4 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Where?

I'm writing this from my open air office right now, where I work just about every day for six to eight hours. At night, I do use the aircon. But I set it at 31 or 30 and have a fan blow over me while I sleep. One of the things Westerners need to do is acclimate themselves to the climate. Where I come from, it's actually a bit hotter in the summer and for about five months duration. I grew up used to it until we got central heat/air. Now, nobody back in my old home city can live without it. They've built the houses for central air and ditched the more expensive method of pier and beam foundations, flow through hallways (dog trots), large ceilings, and big attic fans. Everything is a square box and heats up like an oven. People die without a/c. They've all become soft. Back then, during my childhood, I also saw many fewer obese or overweight people; it was simply too uncomfortable to haul the fat around in during the heat.

[Dumbastheycome]

49 minutes ago, xylophone said:

Okay, bad example, but the heat theory would suggest that viruses in the likes of hot countries don't exist, because the heat kills them – – but the trouble is it doesn't and strains of viral flu and the like are just as prevalent.

 

I worked in Nigeria and I quote this from a medical journal, "Influenza viruses have been an underappreciated contributor to morbidity and mortality in Africa" and it goes on to say that with hospitals few and far between and equipment for testing for viruses just as bad, that under reporting is rife.

 

Other viruses in sub Saharan Africa, for example, are not killed by heat. Or at least not the sort of heat that normal temperatures relevant to that country, reach.
 

AS has been suggested  it is not the  heat  but  the  humidity which  helps? Not so much as in killing  but  helping to lower airbourne  transmission?

[ThaiBunny]

4 minutes ago, Dumbastheycome said:

AS has been suggested  it is not the  heat  but  the  humidity which  helps? Not so much as in killing  but  helping to lower airbourne  transmission?

Humidity = liquids, coronavirus is transmitted via contaminated liquids, typically sweat. Humidity = sweat. As the Americans say, do the math

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, justin case said:

let me correct your science...

 

in cold countries, heat is used against the cold 

 

this dry heat (low humidity) will DRY OUT your mucus membranes

 

you are more easy to get a cold / virus and your mucus membranes are there for a reason and dried out = works less

 

When me/kid/other people I know, be in a 24/7 airco condition, they are prone to get sick as the airco also DRIES OUT the humidity, same as dry heat in cold countries

 

 

Not my science but a summary of the findings of several scientists. Your "correction" assumes a lot. I wonder how many of these powerful heaters are available in Iran, for example? I already said that hot, humid air will result in larger droplets that fall to the floor and therefore are no longer airborne. 

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

Not my science but a summary of the findings of several scientists. Your "correction" assumes a lot. I wonder how many of these powerful heaters are available in Iran, for example? I already said that hot, humid air will result in larger droplets that fall to the floor and therefore are no longer airborne. 

I think he thinks he disagrees with you. According to him, hot humid air is good for the mucus membranes. According to you, it's also good for stopping the transmission of the virus. Some people aren't happy with a win-win.

[Dumbastheycome]

3 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Humidity = liquids, coronavirus is transmitted via contaminated liquids, typically sweat. Humidity = sweat. As the Americans say, do the math

Ok. Consider: viral particles cling to water in the  air, drop faster to  floor?

Sweat,  contact  with  hands,  glasses, food utensils that  are contaminated not  quite the same as getting down and licking boots!

That is the reason why avoiding physical contact and hand washing is a priority.

 

[nauseus]

8 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Humidity = liquids, coronavirus is transmitted via contaminated liquids, typically sweat. Humidity = sweat. As the Americans say, do the math

COVID 19 is a viral respiratory infection. It is transmitted from people's respiratory tracts, primarily by them coughing or sneezing but not sweating.

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, Dumbastheycome said:

Ok. Consider: viral particles cling to water in the  air, drop faster to  floor?

Sweat,  contact  with  hands,  glasses, food utensils that  are contaminated not  quite the same as getting down and licking boots!

That is the reason why avoiding physical contact and hand washing is a priority.

 

But I just dropped the frying pan.

[UbonThani]

9 minutes ago, nauseus said:

COVID 19 is a viral respiratory infection. It is transmitted from people's respiratory tracts, primarily by them coughing or sneezing but not sweating.

Or touching their nose then objects

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, nauseus said:

Better to ventilate if you can

I self ventilated this morning.

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Or touching their nose then objects

A less normal way to transmit it, I suppose. Keeping them boogers to yourself would be a nice gesture. 

[nauseus]

4 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

I self ventilated this morning.

Oooh lots of information coming out now!

[chercheur888]

4 hours ago, Matzzon said:

I stated from start that the virus would not slow down in heat. You have to reach the heat level of sterilization for that to happen. 

 

Nice to know that the experts are starting to agree with me. Maybe the posters that said I was wrong in my earlier posts regarding this, will also eat some humble pie.

Donald Trump confirmed it would disappear with higher temperatures. Who are you to doubt what he said?

[Aspaltso]

5 hours ago, justin case said:

most people live in AIRCOOLED rooms = colder than 27 °C

 

at home, the car, the office, shopping malls, BTS, MRT, schools (non-gov), airports...

 

you only need one sick person at lower than 27 degrees to kill this "hot weather balloon"

 

think about thais and their precious WHITE SKIN will not allow themselves to absorb vitamin D from the  sun !!!!

 

 

the super polluted thai air does not help anybody's lungs and this disease attacks ... THE LUNGS .... should be a wake up call but will be missed by those in power

This is exactly correct. If you look at how the first transmissions took place they were inside of an aircooled taxi cab, and at an aircooled event in Singapore, and inside of an aircooled hotel room etc, etc. If you keep your room warmer than 27 degrees centigrade, and or have a fan instead of an airconditioner, and you're not interacting with people in a cooled environment your chances for transmission are probably lower. That being said no one knows yet enough about this virus to make too many predicitons.

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, UbonThani said:

So its not old news. It shows the drugs worked on people.

But it is old news, given that exactly the same thing was reported with exactly the same drugs, at least 6 weeks ago.

 

For instance, promising results were reported for the lopinavir/ritonavir combination back on February 3 in (would you believe it?) Thailand.

 

Drug combination for coronavirus treatment

 

Chloroquine as a potential treatment was reported on almost as long ago, on Feb 4.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

 

In any event, you're right on one thing, we can't be sure until proper clinical trials are done. Anecdotal evidence of one or two patients who for all we know, might have had a mild case that would have resolved by itself anyway, does not show that the drugs worked, only that they might.