Popular Post glennb6 Posted March 19, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 19, 2020 14 hours ago, Mavideol said: scared it's ok, the majority here, they keep joking about it but, they also are.... not scared would not be ok, that would meant not facing reality.....reports/seeing what's happening all around the word, sure it's scary be scared all you want. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is still showing only (1) death in thailand. if you are scared say 100x that number to justify your fears. then it's 100 out of 70,000,000 people in thailand. You're not scared, your irrational and brainwashed 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almer Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 The doctor may or may not be right, but there has to be a campaign to assist thai's out of there centuries old way of living, i looked in a KFC the other day and saw a family sharing the bones, dont blame them educate them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyril sneer Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 How are people expected to get home if public transport is closed? Stay where they are and book a (Overpriced) hotel for 3+ weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brucegoniners Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 21 days? What the hell is that going to do? All non essential public activity needs to be stopped to slow down the spread of the virus. The only businesses open should be grocery stores, post offices, pharmacies, pet stores and other essential businesses to keep people and animals alive. Otherwise we're going to blow by the other countries in infections and deaths. When I hear this and closing bars for 14 days, but keeping restaurants and malls open I think it's ridiculous. The bars should be closed until further notice, along with other businesses not necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robert888d Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Thailand is doing everything too late I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post kingstonkid Posted March 19, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 19, 2020 The problem that no one is looking at due to the fear factor is what happens after the virus is gone. Mom and dad lose their business because they could not pay the gills. mom and dad that work at businesses lose everything because they have no money to pay bills and no money to buy food. It is great to say shut it down. But then you have the problem of how do families survive. An example for the sake of it is one of the bars in NANA. Girl that works at the bar and makes her money from farang to support her family in the North loses her job loses her apartment and moves home with no money. The manager of the bar loses all her income because there are no farangs coming in to pay for the girls or buy beer. The owner of the business while he has no money coming in still has to pay the government all the taxes and social money that they want as well as paying for all the costs of the building be it rent or mortgage along with hydro and water. Personally I think shutting down the borders giving everyone on a visa an overstay permission for 10 days after the blockades are lifted is a great idea. Problem is where are they going to eat if you shut down the hotels as well as sleep. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post glennb6 Posted March 19, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, kingstonkid said: The problem that no one is looking at due to the fear factor is what happens after the virus is gone. Mom and dad lose their business because they could not pay the gills. mom and dad that work at businesses lose everything because they have no money to pay bills and no money to buy food. It is great to say shut it down. But then you have the problem of how do families survive. An example for the sake of it is one of the bars in NANA. Girl that works at the bar and makes her money from farang to support her family in the North loses her job loses her apartment and moves home with no money. The manager of the bar loses all her income because there are no farangs coming in to pay for the girls or buy beer. The owner of the business while he has no money coming in still has to pay the government all the taxes and social money that they want as well as paying for all the costs of the building be it rent or mortgage along with hydro and water. Personally I think shutting down the borders giving everyone on a visa an overstay permission for 10 days after the blockades are lifted is a great idea. Problem is where are they going to eat if you shut down the hotels as well as sleep. spot on. an just saw today on Bangkok Post online, All inbound air passengers must have Covid-free certificates What percentage of GDP WAS tourism? Whatever it was it's going to be ZERO now. At some point, it's possible that people who have lost their jobs, businesses, means of income, and therefore their cars, houses, motorcycles, and have the loanshark mafia threatening them to pay up or else... these people will realize they've been scammed, hoaxed, and played very badly. The political and social ramifications thereafter may well prove to be dangerous and violent. Goodnight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingstonkid Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 1 minute ago, glennb6 said: spot on. an just saw today on Bangkok Post online, All inbound air passengers must have Covid-free certificates What percentage of GDP WAS tourism? Whatever it was it's going to be ZERO now. Actually ZERO people coming in to the country is a good thing at this point. Look at the US they just shut down the biggest border yet with Canada. Las Vegas has closed all it's hotels and casinos. To me they should ground all airlines until there is a solution or the panic is over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natway09 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 The Dr is actually right as I said yesterday,,, closing SOME will just have the ones who stay open to be packed which is exactly what trying to avoid. I witnesses this yesterday , standing room only in one establishment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300sd Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Why bother now, the best Thailand can hope for is herd immunity! Just keep telling the world we have no virus, we have no testing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ianezy0 Posted March 19, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 19, 2020 20 hours ago, Fex Bluse said: Let their Chinese cousins help them. I care nothing for these people and they feel the same about all of us. No sympathy at all. Idiot 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAINT THOMAS Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Hungry monkeys brawl over food as coronavirus hits tourism in Thailand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, 300sd said: Why bother now, the best Thailand can hope for is herd immunity! There's no data yet on how long, if at all, immunity gained from recovering from the infection will last. Could be you can get it again shortly after, or you get lifetime immunity. Other coronaviruses causing the common cold don't give a long immunity, as people that get the sniffles every bloody autumn as temps fall know. Edited March 19, 2020 by DrTuner 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yadon Toploy Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 9 hours ago, glennb6 said: What percentage of GDP WAS tourism? Whatever it was it's going to be ZERO now. For a country so reliant on tourism that will have disastrous consequences. There's irony in the fact the problem came from China. Perhaps an element of Karma too. I'm not that worried about the virus, I'm worried about what the economic impact will lead to... rising crime, food shortages, travel restrictions... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Yadon Toploy said: I'm not that worried about the virus, I'm worried about what the economic impact will lead to... rising crime, food shortages, travel restrictions... It will be devastating in the long term. Deflation, education getting even worse, no credit available for businesses, mass unemployment. I'm already scheduled to get out of Thailand in a couple of years, this might make me whip out Plan B or C after the initial global shock is over. In about half a year the first larger effect will be very visible. Some "light" reading: https://www.economist.com/news/essays/21600451-finance-not-merely-prone-crises-it-shaped-them-five-historical-crises-show-how-aspects-today-s-fina https://www.epi.org/publication/bp243/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimamey Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 On 3/18/2020 at 3:28 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said: I don't think so!!! In fact, just the opposite... This was from just this past Sunday: And then today's announcement of another 35 new cases broke that record, with today being described as the largest single day increase yet. Has the good doctor been smoking a bit too much of the medical marijuana??? Maybe he said that before those figures came out and he does say that even if the rate of increase is slowing it doesn't mean it won't increase again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhys Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Relations in the CCP..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimamey Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 On 3/18/2020 at 5:20 PM, glennb6 said: once again, in a country of nearly 70,000,000 there has been ONE death and supposedly 212 infected. So what if the number of infections are more - people have been getting sick from influenza since forever, and it sucks to be sick with the flu. The important, most important number is those that haven't recovered as in died. A lot more people die daily from a thousand other reasons and the reaction from govt and the general public was that it's too bad but life goes on as normal. Would it be reasonable to shut down a country if the death rate was 1%, how about 1/2% ? Maybe it would? Suppose the deaths are really 100 rather than 1, no - let's say that 1000 have died - now divide that number by 70M. My calculator just went blue screen. Estimated infected, projected, govt estimates, I think it will be lots because I'm scared, our data suggests - these are all statements that are guesses. Guesses. Some might be well meaning, others not so. Most that suggest huge numbers and suggest radical actions be taken therefore, these are dangerous and ignorant of the consequences. There's been ONE death. If you choose to believe there have been 1000x more, go ahead and calculate that number against the total population, of which you are one of, and that's your chances of dying from CV. Better you bet the lottery because you'll have thousands of percent better chance of winning. If you think shutting down the country and all the economic and political consequences that follow makes sense, be very careful of what you wish for because you may not like the results. I don't think the mortality rate is the oproblem which thankfully appears to be low. It's the fact that it seems to be far more contagious than for example Sars which had a higher mortality rate but was less contagious so easier to isolate. The problem with Covid 19 Is that it's new unlike the normal flu virus where vaccines have been developed for a long time. There's certainly a lot of unnecessary panic, particularly in regard to stockpiling but there's complacency as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 59 minutes ago, kimamey said: Maybe he said that before those figures came out and he does say that even if the rate of increase is slowing it doesn't mean it won't increase again. The point was, there has been no evidence of any slowing in the rate of increase of new cases lately... not in the past day, past several days, past week, etc... It's only up up up. So I have no idea what he was basing his comment upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickudon Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 The problem is that if you wait the epidemic in your country becomes impossible to control. 4 weeks ago the USA had 15 cases. Now nearly 20,000. That is a growth rate of over 1000 fold in a month. No controls, in 4 weeks USA could have 20 million ....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, rickudon said: The problem is that if you wait the epidemic in your country becomes impossible to control. 4 weeks ago the USA had 15 cases. Now nearly 20,000. That is a growth rate of over 1000 fold in a month. No controls, in 4 weeks USA could have 20 million ....... I think the R0 estimates were somewhere around 3.5 and the average time to do one infection round 5 days, out of memory. So, 30days/5=6, 3.5^6 = about 1800x in 30 days, theoretically. Nobody really knows until it's over but yes, 1000x in one month would not be surprising. Although R0 will decrease over time due to herd immunity, everybody within vicinity already infected and so on. It's complex. Better assume everybody is infected and keep your distance. That will tame the R0 and flatten the curve. Edited March 21, 2020 by DrTuner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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