Lodestone Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Assuming hot weather is a mitigating factor on infection itself, you might also be able to add the degree of infection, i.e. viral load. The idea is that high enough temperatures maybe cause a coronavirus's lipid bilayer viral coat to phase change from a hard rubbery state into a disordered one ('melt') and become less infectious. Higher temperatures still would then completely compromise its virulence. As such, even those infected would have ingested a smaller number of active virus particles and would experience a more mild illness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Dogmatix Posted April 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 3, 2020 3 hours ago, Guderian said: Thailand had the first case of Covid-19 recorded outside China on 13th January. As we all know, until very recently the Thai government did little or nothing to stop the spread of the virus. Indeed, by refusing to close the borders to Chinese tourists and even encouraging them to still travel here, it seemed to be actively encouraging the virus to spread further. We've all seen in Italy, Spain and now the US how alarmingly fast the virus spreads once it gets going, with the number of new cases doubling every few days. And yet somehow that hasn't happened in Thailand, in spite of the government apparently (but hopefully unwittingly) doing its level best to maximise the chances of the pandemic spreading like wildfire here. Some people, I know, will claim that there's a hidden epidemic going on in Thailand with thousands of cases every day being concealed from the public to hide the true numbers, but if that's so then I'm afraid I don't see any evidence of it. We have members with Thai partners all over the country, so where are the live reports from TV members of people collapsing coughing in the streets, or hospitals overflowing with dead bodies and medics desperately triaging patients for the few ventilators available, as is happening in northern Italy and Madrid? I don't see them, so it's not unreasonable to conclude that it's not happening, or on a much smaller scale than some people here seem to think is the case. There may be a number of reasons for this, my favourite explanation is still that the virus doesn't much like the heat and humidity here and so can't transmit itself as effectively as it does in colder, drier climes. The fact that most Thais spend a lot of time outdoors rather than stuck at close quarters in a stuffy small room probably helps as well. It may also be that the original strain back in January was a mild version, while now the world is facing a different, more aggressive mutation, which hasn't has enough time to get going here yet (though the original strain here was presumably the same one that caused Wuhan to be isolated, and that was hardly a mild version given how many deaths it caused). Yes, the official numbers are probably an artifact of limited testing, but they're not inconsistent with what I see when I drive around Pattaya. There's no sign of a plague in action other than the government's response in closing things down, when to judge by what's happened in Europe and the US we should be recording thousands of new cases daily and probably a thousand or more deaths. But I just don't see it happening on the ground, does anybody else? I am sure the government numbers are understated, not least because there is very little testing, and have been preparing for the worst but it is also clear that we would hear about it, if rural hospitals, the weak link in the chain, were being overwhelmed which could happen quite quickly, if things took a turn for the worst, particularly given the disproportionate representation of seniors in Thai villages. So far there are no reports of this and please god or whoever may be up there that it stay that way. That suggests that whatever understatement there may be is not yet concealing exponential growth. Indonesia and the Philippines, equally untrustworthy and corrupt countries, are reporting similar trajectories to Thailand, even though they report higher numbers of deaths. If it turns out the heat, humidity and UV light inhibited the transmission of the virus, then third world tropical countries will be incredibly lucky, as none are nearly as well prepared as Italy to face this and it could be catastrophic. It could be that the coming rainy season will increase transmission, as it does for flu. At any rate we should remain alert and prepared for the worst. If it comes we will probably see signs of it here before we see it in the MoPH announcements. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SantiSuk Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 4 hours ago, Jajazazajaja said: so where are they hiding these dead bodies then? .... and will one of these idiot conspiracy theorists (re deaths) please explain what is the motive for every doctor, nurse and administrator in the land to cover up this gross deception by government. And why are the relatives of all these unrecorded deaths, many of whom spare no love for the government du jour have also decided to stay quiet. I grant you that the cases are well understated thru lack of testing but the death-consparacists are defying logic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dogmatix Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, Lodestone said: Assuming hot weather is a mitigating factor on infection itself, you might also be able to add the degree of infection, i.e. viral load. The idea is that high enough temperatures maybe cause a coronavirus's lipid bilayer viral coat to phase change from a hard rubbery state into a disordered one ('melt') and become less infectious. Higher temperatures still would then completely compromise its virulence. As such, even those infected would have ingested a smaller number of active virus particles and would experience a more mild illness. Perhaps it does better in air conditioned areas like boxing stadiums and pubs. At the boxing ring, even if it was not air conditioner, I imagine that a large crowd packed together and shouting excitedly would have helped spread it. It seems to be easier to catch from an infected person just talking, even though the experts talk about coughing and sneezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotchilli Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 4 hours ago, webfact said: bringing its total number cases to 1,978, a health official said. With only 19 deaths.... I smell something fishy and it ain't nam plaa! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natway09 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 I agree, it is hard to comprehend that with aircraft bringing in planeloads from China & Hong Kong at least 3 weeks too long, the mass exoduses to the villages after entertainment & then most other busibesses closed & borders open for too long, (1,000 coming back from Malaysia today even) that Thailand have been "spared the same devastation that Italy, France,USA, UK & others have seen in particular deaths. To me it is hardly conceivable. Can they keep it under 5 deaths per day or am I dreaming ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Dogmatix said: Perhaps it does better in air conditioned areas like boxing stadiums and pubs. At the boxing ring, even if it was not air conditioner, I imagine that a large crowd packed together and shouting excitedly would have helped spread it. It seems to be easier to catch from an infected person just talking, even though the experts talk about coughing and sneezing. It's been a while since I was in a muay stadium, but I do remember everybody was shouting their lungs out. This time with added corona extra. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, Jajazazajaja said: I’m just not buying that there are hundreds if not thousands of deaths that are being hushed up with hurried cremations. They don't have to be hushed up as they will mostly be older people dying of pneumonia and other illnesses which as suggested by some may be also be infected with the virus which may not cause their death but if tested the virus would be labelled as the cause of death as elsewhere questions are being raised about labelling deaths as covid 19 deaths without investigating wether or not the virus caused the death.If you are not totally confused by this post as I am then you're not normal. So to continue the confusion when the hospitals are sending people home that have covid19 like symptoms with a bag of mixed lollies and die from actual flu symptoms as happens every year there would not be an abnormal increase in cremations but because we have covid 19 taking the lives of many of these older people instead of the flu (or other coronaviruses) we are expecting the piling up of bodies. I'm not buying anything about this virus yet as it's nearly all conjecture to me at this stage including my own conjecture lecture and we may not ever know the full story and the truth that people so desperately seek may never be revealed.The only thing I feel certain about is that an event is going on and I have no idea what it is,and the more I read about it the more confused I feel, but I've grown up with confusion so I'm quite comfortable with it,I used it as a weapon in my chess playing days with considerable success and I still use it as a discussion technique and I suspect this current mob calling themselves the Thai government is using confusion as a governing technique with considerable success. P.S. My head hurts. Edited April 3, 2020 by FarFlungFalang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 3 hours ago, DrTuner said: It's been a while since I was in a muay stadium, but I do remember everybody was shouting their lungs out. This time with added corona extra. I've heard they've stop production in Mexico due to the extra corona! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khunpa Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 8 hours ago, mrwinner said: I'm going to guess 112 new cases announced tomorrow with just the 2 dead. Anyone else fancy a guess? I guarentee if 20 people guess, someone will get it bang on. My guess is 104 / 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacob29 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 I would say the best proxy for Thailand is Malaysia. Reasonable test coverage, growth rate never got too high, they did lockdown early (16-Mar), and growth rate is about 5-7% now. Mortality rate not great but on the low side. A growth rate of 7% is not great if it's sustained, but compared to 30%+ seen elsewhere it's promising. Should see in the coming week the full effect of the lockdown, hopefully that growth rate comes down more. I suspect their lockdown was a little more aggressive than Thailands though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mung Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 11 hours ago, z42 said: Only a complete moron would believe that these incredibly low numbers are close to accurate. Even in some of the warmer European nations there are 100's dying each day. I believe the human race has a debt of karma to pay to the world considering just how destructive and violent we have been to other species and the planet at large. But as a Government's primary objective is to govern and guide in times of crisis, you could say the government du jour has done a wretched job of that. The aftermath will be horrendous. Much worse than anything seen yet???? COVID-19 also infects and kills animals too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Christmas13 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mung said: COVID-19 also infects and kills animals too Rubbish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Christmas13 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 9 hours ago, Basil B said: Hospital is the last place I would want to be right now, lot of reports of people catching it while in hospital. Agree with you even I am not in the land of lies now I am back in the nanny state I cancelled my surgery in the hospital I supposed to have next month. Hospitals and nursing homes are the most pron places to catch any virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utalkin2me Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 11 hours ago, Guderian said: Thailand had the first case of Covid-19 recorded outside China on 13th January. As we all know, until very recently the Thai government did little or nothing to stop the spread of the virus. Indeed, by refusing to close the borders to Chinese tourists and even encouraging them to still travel here, it seemed to be actively encouraging the virus to spread further. We've all seen in Italy, Spain and now the US how alarmingly fast the virus spreads once it gets going, with the number of new cases doubling every few days. And yet somehow that hasn't happened in Thailand, in spite of the government apparently (but hopefully unwittingly) doing its level best to maximise the chances of the pandemic spreading like wildfire here. Some people, I know, will claim that there's a hidden epidemic going on in Thailand with thousands of cases every day being concealed from the public to hide the true numbers, but if that's so then I'm afraid I don't see any evidence of it. We have members with Thai partners all over the country, so where are the live reports from TV members of people collapsing coughing in the streets, or hospitals overflowing with dead bodies and medics desperately triaging patients for the few ventilators available, as is happening in northern Italy and Madrid? I don't see them, so it's not unreasonable to conclude that it's not happening, or on a much smaller scale than some people here seem to think is the case. There may be a number of reasons for this, my favourite explanation is still that the virus doesn't much like the heat and humidity here and so can't transmit itself as effectively as it does in colder, drier climes. The fact that most Thais spend a lot of time outdoors rather than stuck at close quarters in a stuffy small room probably helps as well. It may also be that the original strain back in January was a mild version, while now the world is facing a different, more aggressive mutation, which hasn't has enough time to get going here yet (though the original strain here was presumably the same one that caused Wuhan to be isolated, and that was hardly a mild version given how many deaths it caused). Yes, the official numbers are probably an artifact of limited testing, but they're not inconsistent with what I see when I drive around Pattaya. There's no sign of a plague in action other than the government's response in closing things down, when to judge by what's happened in Europe and the US we should be recording thousands of new cases daily and probably a thousand or more deaths. But I just don't see it happening on the ground, does anybody else? Wow, you were doing very well until you completely blew it and said "most Thais spend a lot of time outdoors". I even question whether you have ever been to Thailand now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Christmas13 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, utalkin2me said: Wow, you were doing very well until you completely blew it and said "most Thais spend a lot of time outdoors". I even question whether you have ever been to Thailand now. Don't won't to get in to any arguments with medical experts on TVF, talking about the heat it does not matter every human being has the same body temperature. In Australia we have cases now in the north were it is stinking hot. Explain that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCOTT FITZGERSLD Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 12 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said: Cremations are the norm in Thailand which is quite convenient as you can't go checking if they had an infection and they don't have to hide the bodies.Pretty simple really. on youtube there is a famous movie showing the crematorium worker screaming at a supervisor that they are working full time and there is no more capacity for bodies in all 8 crematoriums...someone did a quick calculations and concluded that the daily dead bodies that were burned there was around 8000 bodies a day , during the pick of the outbreak...let's hope and pray thailand will never get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basil B Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 1 hour ago, White Christmas13 said: Agree with you even I am not in the land of lies now I am back in the nanny state I cancelled my surgery in the hospital I supposed to have next month. Hospitals and nursing homes are the most pron places to catch any virus. It is not just the patients... We have just lost two frontline nurses in the last 24 hrs in the UK.???? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Trip Hop Posted April 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 3, 2020 1 hour ago, White Christmas13 said: Don't won't to get in to any arguments with medical experts on TVF, talking about the heat it does not matter every human being has the same body temperature. In Australia we have cases now in the north were it is stinking hot. Explain that. My sentiments exactly. Had an old school friend who's a right gossip, share some rubbish post on FB about temps of 26-27C killing the virus and therefore to drink hot water? Asked her why didn't it die when it entered our mouths then, after all it's close to 37C in there? She had no answer. My personal opinion on the figures declared to date by Thailand is that they are dictated by the number of tests being carried out. When you compare to other countries, the UK has to date tested approx. 10x what Thailand has and the US approx. 15x? The simple laws of probability will tell you that the more you test, the more you are likely to find? Again just my own personal opinion but I believe that they are happy not to test too many? Spoke to the G/F earlier who told me that the grandfather of the family who run the noodle shop a couple of doors up from her restaurant has been taken to hospital. They haven't confirmed as to whether it is Covid but the family aren't allowed to visit. A bit strange if you ask me? She also said that the monks are refusing to take bodies at the temples because of the outbreak. Now whether that is just a precaution or whether it is where people are actually dying of it, I don't know and I didn't ask? She did add quite openly though that the bodies were having to kept at the hospital instead. Additionally she stated that the doctors were telling people that they should not come to the hospital unless they are really sick, which conveys that either they are genuinely worried or they are already a lot busier than normal? I honestly hope that the TV posters with rose tinted spectacles on are correct about all of this. However looking at the rest of the world I feel that there is a lot worse to come? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jingthing Posted April 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 3, 2020 (edited) 11 hours ago, ukrules said: You can go and find them yourself, it's very easy, I will explain. Go to Twitter, in the search box enter #Ecuador, press 'ENTER' then click the 'Videos' button then plenty of videos come up - just scroll down to see the horror unfolding over there. They're pretty much all in Spanish of course but if you click the tweet you can read the translation. the videos speak for themselves, it's carnage. I don't know where in Ecuador this is, it looks like it's more provincial than in Quito. In Ecuador the very big coastal city of Guayaquil has been hit very hard. It is very hot and humid there. They are under lockdown and bodies are rotting in people's homes and on the streets. So much for the bogus theory that hot weather ends this virus. Edited April 3, 2020 by Jingthing 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riclag Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 12 hours ago, Forza2002 said: When you go in the detail by Province it is easy for all to see that the number of positive cases is being under reported. Casing point being Isaan. Using the Dept. Of Disease Control website http://covid19.ddc.moph.go.th/en I looked at the number of confirmed CV19 cases for the 10 largest Isaan Provinces. The numbers look incredulous, E.G. Khon Kaen, Sakon Nakhon, especially given the mass exodus of jobless Thais from Bangkok, Pattaya etc back to their family villages and the lack of controlled social distancing. No doubt Governors of certain Provinces are under declaring the numbers to garner "brownie points".. I live in Sakon Nakhon ! Imop "0" just can't be accurate ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluedoc Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Just a little bit of quality info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTXR Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Thailand, like many countries, does not even now do serious wide-scale testing, which is the only way to get a handle on the number of people actually infected (as opposed to the number of "confirmed cases"). There is no doubt that the real number of cases is vastly greater than the reported number, but whether it's 10 times or 100 times or 1,000 times greater is impossible to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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