Thailand reports 54 new COVID-19 infections

[George Aylesham]

4 hours ago, Guderian said:

There's a good piece on the Bangkok Post website at the moment, but we're not allowed to quote it here so you'll have to look for it yourself, about the CCSA defending the tests. South Korea has carried out almost ten times as many tests as Thailand, yet the overall rate of infection found among those tested is roughly the same as Thailand's (2.19% versus 2.8%) so it doesn't look like they're missing vast numbers here. Of course, it would be nice to test far more people, and they probably will as the pressure to do so mounts. At the moment, though, their limited, targeted testing doesn't seem to be doing too badly. Keep in mind that no country knows the true numbers infected, it's not just a Thai problem.

Latest reports say that Thailand has tested 70,000 people.

[riclag]

4 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

I hope the first step is to at least open up the restaurants and keep chairs well apart.

Just wonder how long they can keep all the anxious tourists out.

Unless their is a test available for every person, there will always be a risk.

I hope  waitresses leave my glass alone. I don't want them randomly topping it off! How about those dirty menu's

Edited April 9, 2020 by riclag

[JCP108]

4 hours ago, Guderian said:

There's a good piece on the Bangkok Post website at the moment, but we're not allowed to quote it here so you'll have to look for it yourself, about the CCSA defending the tests. South Korea has carried out almost ten times as many tests as Thailand, yet the overall rate of infection found among those tested is roughly the same as Thailand's (2.19% versus 2.8%) so it doesn't look like they're missing vast numbers here. Of course, it would be nice to test far more people, and they probably will as the pressure to do so mounts. At the moment, though, their limited, targeted testing doesn't seem to be doing too badly. Keep in mind that no country knows the true numbers infected, it's not just a Thai problem.

You can't divide by 71,860 (the new number of reported tests) since the filter in place (see others' posts explaining this) doesn't let the positives in that group get counted unless they meet the tighter criteria. So, you can only divide by the 25k that was reported before we bumped it up to 72k tests. Therefore, the hit rate would be 0.0969 for Thailand. Also, the logic that the Thai hit rate resembling another country's hit rate being evidence of valid measures in Thailand is not sound. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by JCP108
hearing voices

[LeamchabangLarry]

15 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

I get your incredulity at our worry. But, I think you and some others are making an error when you assume that it would be unavoidably obvious and not able to be hidden if an extra 5-10k people were dying each month in Thailand. But, consider that, on average, 48k people die in Thailand every month. How many of those did you see? If 48k turned into 58k, why do you somehow believe that we would all develop magical powers to see all those deaths?

 

I got back to Thailand at the first of Feb. So, was here all that month as well as March...and, now into April. So, statistically about 100k people would have died of all various causes in Thailand while I've been here. I directly know of two people who died of old age. I've seen the reports on the news about the handful who have died from C-19. Other than that, I'm oblivious to all the thousands of other deaths and so are you. I have no idea if there was a 10-20% bump in the monthly average number of deaths. That data is not being made available and none of us has magically become omniscient. Not me. Not you. Stop thinking you'd see all those deaths simply because it's a big number. 10-20k sounds like a lot of people dying. But, spread that out over a few weeks in a country of 70 million and you simply: do. not. see. them. You don't.

Like I said, I would be saying the same thing as you and some others here if it were Early March.

We had been shamelessly letting in Chinese Mainlanders until March at a rate of 9.5 million a year.  It should have blown up and spectacularly by now.

 

Monitor social media and the signals from individuals.  These include those that work at hospitals, walking by hospitals, going into hospitals, driving by hospitals, and those that live by hospitals.

 

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by LeamchabangLarry

[Magenta408]

Open the pubs!

[JCP108]

17 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

  It should have blown up and spectacularly by now.

 

 

 

 

...and, we should all be magically aware of it. I don't think I did a good job of getting my point across. 

 

If you ask me: Did 10k, 20, 30k, 40k, or 50k people die in Thailand last month? I simply don't know and neither do you or any of the other posters on here. We don't. 

 

If an extra 5k people died in the country over the last four weeks, that represents only a 10% bump in business as usual. Since the beginning of the year, an extra 15k people could have died with only a 10% increase in deaths. So, basically the same number of raw deaths that have been reported in Italy could have happened here with about a 12% jump in the Thai death rate. Why, why, why do you think that if deaths in this country increased by 10-12% you and I would have to see it? Why?

Edited April 9, 2020 by JCP108
hearing voices

[shy coconut]

4 hours ago, bamboozled said:

Who gets tested? How is it determined who gets the test? People that have some sort of symptom and go to a hospital or doctor about it?

That's pretty much how they do it in the UK, although they have now started testing 

health workers and politicians.

[LeamchabangLarry]

9 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

...and, we should all be magically aware of it. I don't think I did a good job of getting my point across. 

 

If you ask me: Did 10k, 20, 30k, 40k, or 50k people die in Thailand last month? I simply don't know and neither do you or any of the other posters on here. We don't. 

 

If an extra 5k people died in the country over the last four weeks, that represents only a 10% bump in business as usual. Since the beginning of the year, an extra 15k people could have died with only a 10% increase in deaths. So, basically the same number of raw deaths that have been reported in Italy could have happened here with about a 12% jump in the Thai death rate. Why, why, why do you think that if deaths in this country increased by 10-12% you and I would have to see it? Why?

Ok, let's take the middle ground of your number.

 

Do we agree that Bangkok is more concentrated than any 5 other provinces put together?

Let's assume 50% happened in Bangkok given population density, foreign visitors, and mass transportation.

 

I think we would VISIBLY see 15k people dying in Bangkok over the course of 2-3 weeks, coming out of Bangkok hospitals, if not on social media.  Additionally, put all the Bangkok hospitals together and there is not enough capacity for 15,000 ICU patients.

 

.... just to stay on your point

Edited April 9, 2020 by LeamchabangLarry

[dinsdale]

24 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

Parking lots about 25% full and Samitivej was a ghost town inside.

 

We would be hearing about it on social media if the ICUs were bursting at the seams

Private hospital isn't it? Social media? Maybe. It is of course being monitored. Let's wait and see if images start coming out. Fairly sure anyone who posts such images would be in for not such a good time. Also it's not just those who need to present to hospital that has this virus. 

[shy coconut]

3 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Wouldn't know that unless they actually tested people presenting to the hospital with a simple fever or cough instead of these convoluted guidelines they are going by now. 

 

And all this assumes they are being transparent, not manipulating the numbers. 

Would that not lead to a far higher percentage of positive results as they are only

testing patients showing symptoms of the virus?

[cyril sneer]

2 minutes ago, shy coconut said:

That's pretty much how they do it in the UK, although they have now started testing 

health workers and politicians.

A friend of my partners had to fork out 7000 baht out of their 15000 baht wage to get a covid test as their work colleagues had a meeting saying they couldn’t return to work unless they had the test.

 

This is after a 2 week quarantine from visiting another province, with an additional 3 days from the past extended weekend.

 

The workplace then rejected the test results because they didn’t use the words positive/negative.

 

No limit to the stupidity

[JCP108]

8 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

 

 

Do we agree that Bangkok is more concentrated than any 5 other provinces put together?

 

...probably...not sure, but I would accept that. I still think wherever hospitals are concentrated or not, a 10-12% bump in business could happen without our seeing it. 

 

Think about it this way, data in the real world (to the extent you can measure it) is usually lumpy, not smooth. That means if we ignore that we're currently focused on this virus, the death rate fluctuates probably by a fair amount each week. People don't die on schedule in even numbers each day. So, you and I don't get notified nor do we become aware of 10-20% fluctuations in the death rate in BKK or the country. But, such fluctuations happen all the time (my assumption). So, I apply that same thinking to this situation and think that neither you nor I nor any other poster on here could or would be aware of such a fluctuation in the Thai hospital business or in Thai deaths in general (considering all the ones including those outside the hospitals). 

Edited April 9, 2020 by JCP108

[shy coconut]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Good idea, care to point me to the raw data for those? From a reputable source. I can wait.

The main reason for the social isolation in the UK is to try to stop the virus affecting too

many people at once, those who suffer bad complications all require ICU treatment, many

with ventilation.

 

No health care system in the world has the capacity to expand its ICU beds by 10-15% which

is why the field and temporary hospitals are being set up.

 

If the hospitals in Thailand had been overwhelmed with the kind of numbers you are suggesting

then that would be visually obvious and impossible to paper over.

 

 

Sorry, I didn't mean to quote Dinsdale, I was replying to JCP108's post.

[Rocking Robert]

I believe they could hide the numbers of Thai  deaths but not the numbers of expats

[JCP108]

2 minutes ago, shy coconut said:

 

 

No health care system in the world has the capacity to expand its ICU beds by 10-15% which

is why the field and temporary hospitals are being set up.

 

If the hospitals in Thailand had been overwhelmed with the kind of numbers you are suggesting

then that would be visually obvious and impossible to paper over.

 

 

Sorry, I didn't mean to quote Dinsdale, I was replying to JCP108's post.

If ICU beds aren't running at capacity, then a 10% increase in business might still be within their normal capacity. I wouldn't assume that they were running at 100% full prior to this. 

 

I still say that a 10-12% increase would not be "visually obvious and impossible to paper over." I think that kind of fluctuation happens all the time and we don't see it. I get that you and others are convinced you would (and, so I'm going to stop trying to make the opposite point). I just don't think we would. 

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand reports 54 new COVID-19 infections

If the numbers remain low then the restrictions may be slowly lifted, with the curfew possibly dropped... At the end of this month, otherwise this will be hard for people to understand why the continuation.

If the measures are increased or prolonged for another month then something doesn't add up.

Like the schools being closed for another 2 months until July 1st?

[NoshowJones]

4 hours ago, UbonThani said:

What tourists?

The Chinese. ????

[offset]

25 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

If ICU beds aren't running at capacity, then a 10% increase in business might still be within their normal capacity. I wouldn't assume that they were running at 100% full prior to this. 

 

I still say that a 10-12% increase would not be "visually obvious and impossible to paper over." I think that kind of fluctuation happens all the time and we don't see it. I get that you and others are convinced you would (and, so I'm going to stop trying to make the opposite point). I just don't think we would. 

But you forget that over half of the infections are in BKK so I would think if the figures are not true BKK hospitals ICUs would be over loaded by now 

[JCP108]

2 minutes ago, offset said:

But you forget that over half of the infections are in BKK so I would think if the figures are not true BKK hospitals ICUs would be over loaded by now 

Also more hospitals in BKK.

[LeamchabangLarry]

34 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

If ICU beds aren't running at capacity, then a 10% increase in business might still be within their normal capacity. I wouldn't assume that they were running at 100% full prior to this. 

 

I still say that a 10-12% increase would not be "visually obvious and impossible to paper over." I think that kind of fluctuation happens all the time and we don't see it. I get that you and others are convinced you would (and, so I'm going to stop trying to make the opposite point). I just don't think we would. 

we are not talking about standard deviations here...

 

we are talking triple digits in Europe and US

[trainman34014]

5 hours ago, jadee said:

I remember back in February before things kicked off here, a friend of mine in China shared an editorial warming that covid19 would hit Thailand badly because of poor personal hygiene habits. Fast forward to now and most Thais are taking it extremely seriously and doing all the things that Chinese are doing - like wearing face masks and religiously applying hand gel/sanitizer. I'm also heartened to see 7-11s checking people's temperature and Big C/Tewsco doing the same thing. 

Having spent a fair amount of time in China in recent years i can tell you that personal hygene in Thailand is a lot better overall than in China !

[LeamchabangLarry]

7 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Also more hospitals in BKK.

 

not enough to handle 10,000 concurrent ICU stays

[totally thaied up]

1 hour ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

Monitor social media and the signals from individuals. 

Like here. Small hospital treating covid-19 patients and not enough doctors. Social media is stronger here then most think. The number of ICU beds I would gather is a static number in most hospitals. If they got overwhelmed like Italy or Spain, someone would be saying something. 

 

 

[Tingnongnoi]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

...and, we should all be magically aware of it. I don't think I did a good job of getting my point across. 

 

If you ask me: Did 10k, 20, 30k, 40k, or 50k people die in Thailand last month? I simply don't know and neither do you or any of the other posters on here. We don't. 

 

If an extra 5k people died in the country over the last four weeks, that represents only a 10% bump in business as usual. Since the beginning of the year, an extra 15k people could have died with only a 10% increase in deaths. So, basically the same number of raw deaths that have been reported in Italy could have happened here with about a 12% jump in the Thai death rate. Why, why, why do you think that if deaths in this country increased by 10-12% you and I would have to see it? Why?

So have they been unable to see the effects in Italy, in New York? or any of the other places where there is constant news of the devastation its causing there health services? Somehow it is happenening in Thailand, but everyone is magically unaware of it? Not a single Thai nurse or doctor or family member has brought it to the attention like in all those other places?

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

Parking lots about 25% full and Samitivej was a ghost town inside.

If I had severe pneumonia, I doubt I'd be driving to a hospital and leaving the car parked there. That's what body snatcher limos are for. 

 

I haven't wandered around hospital wards checking people out so not sure how that works. Bit creepy.

Edited April 9, 2020 by DrTuner

[JCP108]

8 minutes ago, Tingnongnoi said:

Somehow it is happenening in Thailand, but everyone is magically unaware of it? 

Not magically. Just simply unaware of it. 

 

Let me ask this...

 

Could the monthly death rate in Thailand increase 2% and it go under the radar of TV posters? Or are posters on here sensitive to even small fluctuations in the Thai death rate (say, even as low as 0.5% and 1%)? How small a percentage of an increase could the monthly death rate be that might go unnoticed by posters here?

 

If your answer is: Okay, the rate could go up 2% and (if not openly reported by the government and new sources), I might not be aware of it...then, that would mean that an extra 950 people could die monthly without your necessarily noticing. In the first there months of the year that could be (3 x 950) 2,850 extra deaths. 

[flamesfan]

2 hours ago, George Aylesham said:

Latest reports say that Thailand has tested 70,000 people.

If they conducted tests proportionately with the US, they should have tested 400,000 people as they are approximately 20% of the population versus US. The Us has 350,000,000 people and have conducted 2,000,000 tests, hence the high numbers. Testing is the key.

[DrTuner]

Nobody has ever noticed the flu season here loading up the hospitals either. Or dengue season. Doesn't seem like medical porn is very popular here. More fun to take photos of Leo bottles and post them on facebook.

Edited April 9, 2020 by DrTuner

[totally thaied up]

10 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

I might not be aware of it...then, that would mean that an extra 950 people could die monthly

I am more worried about a extra 300-400 people dying daily of covid-19 in a area like Bangkok. I am talking like what is going on now in the UK, US, Italy and Spain in such numbers. It would be noted. Someone would see this. Thai social media would talk.

[Tingnongnoi]

1 hour ago, totally thaied up said:

I am more worried about a extra 300-400 people dying daily of covid-19 in a area like Bangkok. I am talking like what is going on now in the UK, US, Italy and Spain in such numbers. It would be noted. Someone would see this. Thai social media would talk.

Exactly! As others have said there's no way it wouldn't be all over social media.