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Covid19 - no need to panic - still


AussieBob18

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1 minute ago, chessman said:

He said herd immunity may happen in one area. Your quote doesn’t support your argument.

What Dr Tegnell said was this:

 

"Dr Tegnell has defended his limited interventions, telling The Mail on Sunday that he believed that Britain's lockdown had gone too far.

 

He told the paper that Sweden was 'following' the UK's original approach of resisting lockdown, and was 'disappointed' by Britain's abrupt U-turn."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html

 

So Dr Tegnell, the man in charge of Sweden's response, has made it perfectly clear that he is following the UK's original approach, which was what chessman? Herd immunity, that's right.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If I may be of help here, the 0.37% figure comes from an academic study in Germany by Prof Hendrik Streeck.

Not peer reviewed. Difficult to make 0.37% work in New York or northern Italy.

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14 minutes ago, bestie said:

Then please explain how you come up with a morality rate of 0,2, 0,37 or 0,5%

 

Even if you would estimated that 3 Million people have the virus already in the US the mortality rate would be 1,5 %

 

 

Here is the not yet peer reviewed study recently done in the US.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

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4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If I may be of help here, the 0.37% figure comes from an academic study in Germany by Prof Hendrik Streeck.

 

He found that in one of Germany's worst affected areas 15% were infected. Extrapolated to the US, that would be 164,000 deaths, not 3,000,000.

 

https://www.theblaze.com/news/german-study-shows-coronavirus-mortality-rate-five-times-lower-than-widely-reported-numbers

  • Mark Levin’s CRTV and Glenn Beck’s The Blaze have merged to form a right-wing media and opinion giant.

It also appears under "right wing watch" !  

 

I'm back to my first post. 

 

Like I said do whatever you like. It's not my country and I wish you all good luck with it. 

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3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

What Dr Tegnell said was this:

 

"Dr Tegnell has defended his limited interventions, telling The Mail on Sunday that he believed that Britain's lockdown had gone too far.

 

He told the paper that Sweden was 'following' the UK's original approach of resisting lockdown, and was 'disappointed' by Britain's abrupt U-turn."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html

 

So Dr Tegnell, the man in charge of Sweden's response, has made it perfectly clear that he is following the UK's original approach, which was what chessman? Herd immunity, that's right.

No, words added by you or the media.

 

If herd immunity was your aim you wouldn’t be banning gatherings over 50 people. 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bestie said:
  • Mark Levin’s CRTV and Glenn Beck’s The Blaze have merged to form a right-wing media and opinion giant.

It also appears under "right wing watch" !  

 

I'm back to my first post. 

 

Like I said do whatever you like. It's not my country and I wish you all good luck with it. 

Well, they're doing an excellent job, because Blaze even linked to the original German research paper.

 

If Blaze is not on your idelogically approved list you can read the same in a German newspaper, the figures are the same as in the Blaze article:

 

https://www.general-anzeiger-bonn.de/ga-english/bonn-virologist-streeck-presents-first-findings-from-study-of-outbreak-area_aid-50014979

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1 minute ago, chessman said:

No, words added by you or the media.

 

If herd immunity was your aim you wouldn’t be banning gatherings over 50 people. 

 

 

 

 

No, I'm not adding words, I'm reporting exactly what Dr Tegnell told a UK newspaper:

 

"Dr Tegnell has defended his limited interventions, telling The Mail on Sunday that he believed that Britain's lockdown had gone too far.

He told the paper that Sweden was 'following' the UK's original approach of resisting lockdown, and was 'disappointed' by Britain's abrupt U-turn."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html

 

I'm merely interpreting this correctly. If Tegnell says he was following the UK's original approach, then he is following a herd immunity approach. Because herd immunity was the initial Uk approach.

 

And you can ban gatherings over 50 people and go for herd immunity, if you want to pace transmission so that there is less likelihood of your health system being compromised.

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4 minutes ago, chessman said:

No, words added by you or the media.

 

If herd immunity was your aim you wouldn’t be banning gatherings over 50 people. 

 

 

 

 

Herd immunity is not an aim it's what happens when the population is no longer infected by a virus.Vaccines can help attain herd immunity and avoid the ravages of a virus and flattening the curve can assist in lessening the impact on the health system but what ever you do you will end up with herd immunity or everyone either dead or in perpetual lockdown.

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2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I'm merely interpreting this correctly. If Tegnell says he was following the UK's original approach, then he is following a herd immunity approach. Because herd immunity was the initial Uk approach.

If you read the article you linked to there, he is not mentioning herd immunity, he is saying there might be an effect sometime in May. This is hardly achieving herd immunity.

 

good old, daily mail. They supported Hitler you know! 
 

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5 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

but what ever you do you will end up with herd immunity or everyone either dead or in perpetual lockdown.

This is questionable. What about all those Asian countries? South Korea?
 

They have none of those three. Taiwan? Ditto. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, chessman said:

If you read the article you linked to there, he is not mentioning herd immunity, he is saying there might be an effect sometime in May. This is hardly achieving herd immunity.

 

You are being deliberately obtuse now.

 

He said clearly "Sweden was 'following' the UK's original approach of resisting lockdown, and was 'disappointed' by Britain's abrupt U-turn."

 

You know very well the UK's original approach was herd immunity. If Sweden is following the UK's original approach, Sweden is following a herd immunity approach.

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2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

You are being deliberately obtuse now.

I guess you linked the wrong article.

 

Herd immunity approach? Hmnnnn, they are less worried than other countries about the implications of herd immunity but it is not their aim. To encourage Thailand to follow that path instead of testing and trying to keep numbers low is crazy. Especially as Thailand has many factors that compare unfavourably with Sweden.

 

 

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What concerns me with this mass hysteria is the vaccine. There has never been a vaccine for a coronavirus (common cold, sars, mers). The vaccine development for sars was suspended due to it naturally disappearing but also the vaccine testing showed it caused more danger.  
 

Since the 1960s, tests of vaccine candidates for diseases such as dengue, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) have shown a paradoxical phenomenon: Some animals or people who received the vaccine and were later exposed to the virus developed more severe disease than those who had not been vaccinated”
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/

 

When will it be ready?

The team are already putting plans in place to mass produce the vaccine, even before they know whether it will work.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52329659

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, chessman said:

This is questionable. What about all those Asian countries? South Korea?
 

They have none of those three. Taiwan? Ditto. 

 

 

Do you mean they are no longer in lockdown?They have the virus under control and the virus is no longer a threat to them?That is also questionable.

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2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Do you mean they are no longer in lockdown?They have the virus under control and the virus is no longer a threat to them?That is also questionable.

Virus remains a threat of course, it is everywhere... but most things are open and there are very few new cases or deaths.

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22 minutes ago, TeaMonkey said:

What concerns me with this mass hysteria is the vaccine. There has never been a vaccine for a coronavirus (common cold, sars, mers). The vaccine development for sars was suspended due to it naturally disappearing but also the vaccine testing showed it caused more danger.  
 

Since the 1960s, tests of vaccine candidates for diseases such as dengue, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) have shown a paradoxical phenomenon: Some animals or people who received the vaccine and were later exposed to the virus developed more severe disease than those who had not been vaccinated”
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/

 

When will it be ready?

The team are already putting plans in place to mass produce the vaccine, even before they know whether it will work.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52329659

 

 

 

Since this vaccine is rushed through no doubt mistakes will be made.

 

Imma wait until the vaccine is used widely before I get a shot.

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5 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:

Your original post was well thought out and had many suggestions that I agree with (although it has be said you have significently changed your tune from previous posts you have made over the last few weeks) but now you've just gone and spoiled it with your this 'is what happens when a Govt has too much power and control' nonsense.  

You argue how difficult it should have been for governments to impose lockdowns when this power to dictate in a crisis has been demonstrated many times as an absolute neccessity in terms of crisis. Whether it was WW II, swine flu or terrorist threats, the power for governments to take full control of the people is an essential tool in tackling major emergencies.  

You argue 'It should have been much harder to impose the Covid controls and lockdown than it was' so what do you suggest? A full parliamentary debate? A televised head-to-head between the conflicting opinions? Oh I know, lets have a referendum. That seemed to work out well before.

The UK is not some dystopian, facist, totalitarium state as you are trying to parallel with your 'V for Vendetta' analogy (although I think many of you think it is) and you are not some plucky freedom fighter fighting the forces of tyrany by pointing out to us ''sheep' that we had all better wake up and smell the roses. I'm afraid the reality is much more boring than that. They're just a bunch of well meaning, if highly incompetant people, trying desperately to catch up on a crisis that they absolutely should have been ahead of already.

As I've said before, questions need to be asked and people held accountable but the time for finger pointing should come after we have this all under control.  

I hear you - but I am not talking about the 'normal' people control that Govts must and should have - I agree with you there. I am talking about that the world Govts were able to shut down the world economies and make people unemployed and create starvation and huge social problems (and each Govt did it differently), all for what is turning out to be a bad flu - as some people initially said it might be, and tried to talk about the need for caution.

The V for Vendetta analogy was not stated as if here and now - it was given to show where this could end up going.

Highly incompetent and ignorant people making rash and unreasonable decisions - we agree on that mate.

The problem in waiting to blameis when - when this be 'over' such that then we talk about who to blame, and stop it ever happening again - what exact event or circumstance means that it is now OK to start making people accountable.  If you take that approach, then I can assure you it will never be under control - they will extend the concerns and keep off the attacks until they are no longer relevant in people's minds. The iron is hot now IMO - make them think the only way to make up for it is to now get things back together and put in place steps so it doesnt happen again so easily.

 

 

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5 hours ago, chessman said:

Very simplistic. Extremes on both sides are clearly bad. But (for example) the Scandinavian countries (have we discussed Sweden enough yet?) are successful functioning democracies with many of the ‘Socialist’ qualities that people like Orwell would have supported.

Talk about simplistic.  'successful functioning democracies ' is not what a growing number of residents in those countries think, and many others looking in from outside agree.  

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4 hours ago, bestie said:

I guess that's the reason why the USA is so struggling with it. People are divided and the "right wing" is pushing their agenda forward by risking people life. They don't even care. On YouTube and even here in the forum. They have a complete different opinion of what "Freedom" means. It's pur egoism. I'm so tired to see pictures of "Life or die" "Is just a flu" or "Back to work". All these little naysayers are becoming online the smartest politicians. The reality is , they have blood on their hands. Jesus. America is really Fck up. I don't see such a mess in any other country right now. Maybe Aussies are following.? 

You right now looking at "only" 2k death per day in the US, if the US opens up again and go back to life like it was before you will looking up up to 3 Million Death only in America. Up to 300k death per day. If you want to risk your life it's ok it's your freedom. But don't come close to other people who want to protect their own life and the life of their family. 

I lost my hop that the US will ever "wake up" again from this Nonsense right wing BS agenda with all these little YouTube "stars" who are experts in everything. Give me a break. Please. These Guys are insane. I know the Virus comes from 5G and from the communist. Of course. Jesus. 

Yes, of course there will be a life coming after the virus. But in the meantime please stop to try to be an expert and give people false security. Get used to it how the "new normal" will look like. Everyone is suffering and struggling with it. ---- Sorry but I can't take these people anymore. 

What you have written is classic anti-Trump anti-right wing emotion and feelings. There is nothing in there that I can see but your feelings and emotions - and of course personal insults against those who disagree with the total panic and economic shutdowns.  I was corrected by one person who was left-wing but agreed with me - he pointed out that some lefties were against the lockdowns and economic destruction - but I must state now that the vast majority of 'pro' lockdowns are lefties.

 

Sorry what I and many others have said has upset you - but the people of the 'free' world are turning 'right' - Trump and Brexit were just the beginning.  The world is turning against globalism and centralised controls by unelected bureaucrats (UN, EU, etc.).  Sorry but Patriotism and Nationalism is coming back - what country do you support at the Olympics or the Football World Cup?  The fact is that left wing liberal ideals have been failing for a long time, and this Covid pandemic and the response, has made more people wake up and see how badly left wing ideals have affected people's lives. 

 

But what I would like you to take away from my post/response is just one thing.  I want you to note that the vast majority of statements about this pandemic by like minded people as myself, are not personal attacks and personal insults against people who disagree with us.  You may think what I wrote above is personal, but it is not.  However, the vast majority of statements made by people like minded with yourself are very personal.  Take a step back - look at the facts logically and without emotion or feeling - then form your own opinion and then express it without insulting those who express different opinions.

   

 

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3 hours ago, Logosone said:

You are being deliberately obtuse now.

He said clearly "Sweden was 'following' the UK's original approach of resisting lockdown, and was 'disappointed' by Britain's abrupt U-turn."

You know very well the UK's original approach was herd immunity. If Sweden is following the UK's original approach, Sweden is following a herd immunity approach.

Mate - stop listening to him - I formed the same opinion some time back. He is either exceptionally lacking in the ability to understand what you are stating, or he is deliberate being argumentative.  I told him that he was in the wrong Dept - the Argument Department was two doors down on the right (Monty Python) - but he keeps coming back. 

 

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21 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

what country do you support at the Olympics or the Football World Cup?

For a long time now I focus on supporting and cheering up good athletes, which inspire me with their performance. Countries? No, I don't care where they were born, just what they do.

May be I listed too much to John Lennon's "Imagine".

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4 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

You are being deliberately obtuse now.

 

He said clearly "Sweden was 'following' the UK's original approach of resisting lockdown, and was 'disappointed' by Britain's abrupt U-turn."

 

You know very well the UK's original approach was herd immunity. If Sweden is following the UK's original approach, Sweden is following a herd immunity approach.

You say: "the UK's original approach was herd immunity"

 

Remember, herd immunity means letting the virus spread at will with no social distancing measures etc. When exactly was herd immunity the UK's official strategy, and can you provide any direct quotes from the government to back that up?

 

 

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15 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You say: "the UK's original approach was herd immunity"

 

Remember, herd immunity means letting the virus spread at will with no social distancing measures etc. When exactly was herd immunity the UK's official strategy, and can you provide any direct quotes from the government to back that up?

 

 

Sure:

 

"Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, has defended the government’s approach to tackling the coronavirus, saying it could have the benefit of creating “herd immunity” across the population."

 

However, Vallance said the government’s approach was aimed at broadening the peak of the epidemic, and allowing immunity to build up among the population.

 

Direct quote from Sir Patrick Vallance: "....also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it. Those are the key things we need to do.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

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1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

What you have written is classic anti-Trump anti-right wing emotion and feelings. There is nothing in there that I can see but your feelings and emotions - and of course personal insults against those who disagree with the total panic and economic shutdowns.  I was corrected by one person who was left-wing but agreed with me - he pointed out that some lefties were against the lockdowns and economic destruction - but I must state now that the vast majority of 'pro' lockdowns are lefties.

 

Sorry what I and many others have said has upset you - but the people of the 'free' world are turning 'right' - Trump and Brexit were just the beginning.  The world is turning against globalism and centralised controls by unelected bureaucrats (UN, EU, etc.).  Sorry but Patriotism and Nationalism is coming back - what country do you support at the Olympics or the Football World Cup?  The fact is that left wing liberal ideals have been failing for a long time, and this Covid pandemic and the response, has made more people wake up and see how badly left wing ideals have affected people's lives. 

 

But what I would like you to take away from my post/response is just one thing.  I want you to note that the vast majority of statements about this pandemic by like minded people as myself, are not personal attacks and personal insults against people who disagree with us.  You may think what I wrote above is personal, but it is not.  However, the vast majority of statements made by people like minded with yourself are very personal.  Take a step back - look at the facts logically and without emotion or feeling - then form your own opinion and then express it without insulting those who express different opinions.

   

 

And what you have written is classic Trump, Fox, OANN, Rush Limbaugh right wing propaganda. I only wish right wing anti-golbalists would have an original thought in their head other than blindly follow the obvious misinformation spewing out of the right wing media.

 

If anything the Covid crisis has shown that a cohesive, centralised government with established instituations that predict and handle major events such as this are more important than ever. Trump has shown the downside of shutting down your pandemic department, not listening to the experts and going your own way. There was ample time to get the American house in order but a solid month of first ignoring it, then denying it, then minimising it and even joking about it has left the USA in a terrible state with C19. Trump called it a Democratic hoax, spread false information about the severity, blamed the Obama administration and championed untested and potentially dangerous cures. His lack of federal guidance has left states in a mish-mash of solutions, with some backing self-isolation whilst others don't. States are having to bid against each other for essential supplies and even now, testing (which we have all agreed is the way forward) is no-where near the level it needs to be to contain the virus. Against all scientific advice Trump pushed for the country to be open by Easter, then the end of April and now mid-May. He has actively encouraged people to gather in numbers with no social distancing with his 'liberate Minnesota", "liberate Michigan" and "liberate Virginia" nonsense whilst still perpetuating his 'it's no worse than the flu' doctrine that his cult followers are still following. His Captain Chaos approach has lead to the highest rate of infections recorded by any country and 42,500 deaths (and counting). His 'press conferences' are still full of misinformation, self-congratulations and downright lies and resemble a Trump rally more than the information and leadership role it's supposed to play. The man is a walking disister but his cult followers are either blind to all this or so willfully ignorant that they continue to preach his ludicrous notions of 'less government' and 'freedom is more important than death'.

 

I will predict that after all this, the world will do exactly the opposite of what you say and embrace globalism in the knowledge we are all in this together whilst insisting on more centralised controls so this can never happen again.

 

As my previous posts have hopefully demonstarted, I am no 'left-wing liberal' as I don't think it's particularly helpful for right wingers to continually bring up the left/right debate (which you all do at every opportunity). I don't think it's important to put labels on people when we can all suffer the same fate, but I will say that the vast majority of the misinformation being thrown around right now is from right-wing media not the 'fake news' your beloved leader likes to demonise so much. And as much as you bemoan the UN, the EU and I'm sure the WHO, they are some of the only voices of reason in a sea of downright stupidity.

 

And no, patriotism and nationalism isn't coming back for the vast majority of people because we can all clearly see that patriotism and nationalism are just badly marketed excuses for hatred and isolation. They're there to stoke further division and hatred of others, just because they're not in your 'gang'. 

 

As I said in a previous post, your first post was well thought out and provided a solution of which I wholeheartedly agree (and marked a vast change in tone and content from your previous posts) but you keep spoiling it with your unblinking defence of governments and individuals who are literary throwing fuel on an already out-of-hand fire in the name of some right-wing ideology that is proving to be whoefully lacking at a time when level heads and cohesive solutions are needed most.    

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2 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Talk about simplistic.  'successful functioning democracies ' is not what a growing number of residents in those countries think, and many others looking in from outside agree.  

Very difficult to compare countries, but Scandinavian countries are very high on lists such as the world happiness index that attempt to do this. Turns out, high taxes and a strong social safety net is popular with people. Carries a bit more weight that your anecdotal evidence about a 'growing number of people'. 

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8 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

 

If anything the Covid crisis has shown that a cohesive, centralised government with established instituations that predict and handle major events such as this are more important than ever. Trump has shown the downside of shutting down your pandemic department, not listening to the experts and going your own way. There was ample time to get the American house in order but a solid month of first ignoring it, then denying it, then minimising it and even joking about it has left the USA in a terrible state with C19. Trump called it a Democratic hoax, spread false information about the severity, blamed the Obama administration and championed untested and potentially dangerous cures. His lack of federal guidance has left states in a mish-mash of solutions, with some backing self-isolation whilst others don't. States are having to bid against each other for essential supplies and even now, testing (which we have all agreed is the way forward) is no-where near the level it needs to be to contain the virus. Against all scientific advice Trump pushed for the country to be open by Easter, then the end of April and now mid-May. He has actively encouraged people to gather in numbers with no social distancing with his 'liberate Minnesota", "liberate Michigan" and "liberate Virginia" nonsense whilst still perpetuating his 'it's no worse than the flu' doctrine that his cult followers are still following. His Captain Chaos approach has lead to the highest rate of infections recorded by any country and 42,500 deaths (and counting). His 'press conferences' are still full of misinformation, self-congratulations and downright lies and resemble a Trump rally more than the information and leadership role it's supposed to play. The man is a walking disister but his cult followers are either blind to all this or so willfully ignorant that they continue to preach his ludicrous notions of 'less government' and 'freedom is more important than death'.

 

I will predict that after all this, the world will do exactly the opposite of what you say and embrace globalism in the knowledge we are all in this together whilst insisting on more centralised controls so this can never happen again.

 

As my previous posts have hopefully demonstarted, I am no 'left-wing liberal' as I don't think it's particularly helpful for right wingers to continually bring up the left/right debate (which you all do at every opportunity). I don't think it's important to put labels on people when we can all suffer the same fate, but I will say that the vast majority of the misinformation being thrown around right now is from right-wing media not the 'fake news' your beloved leader likes to demonise so much. And as much as you bemoan the UN, the EU and I'm sure the WHO, they are some of the only voices of reason in a sea of downright stupidity.

 

And no, patriotism and nationalism isn't coming back for the vast majority of people because we can all clearly see that patriotism and nationalism are just badly marketed excuses for hatred and isolation. They're there to stoke further division and hatred of others, just because they're not in your 'gang'. 

 

As I said in a previous post, your first post was well thought out and provided a solution of which I wholeheartedly agree (and marked a vast change in tone and content from your previous posts) but you keep spoiling it with your unblinking defence of governments and individuals who are literary throwing fuel on an already out-of-hand fire in the name of some right-wing ideology that is proving to be whoefully lacking at a time when level heads and cohesive solutions are needed most.    

I don't think so. 

 

We have seen precisely the opposite, that de-centralised responses like the ones in Germany were more successful than centralised attempts like those in London or Paris.

 

Equally in the US when Trump tried to assert central primacy over the reponse to the pandemic it turned out it was the governors who were best placed to deal with their respective outbreaks and Trump backed off.

 

Of course what you are describing in the US has happened almost to the letter in the UK or Germany as well.

 

Your characterisation of Trump's effort is a mere caricature of what actually happened though.

 

As for your prediction that nationalism will not make a come-back, I think that's way off. Most of the people in every country see this virus as having been brought by outsiders. It has already, and will continue to incite nationalism and hatred of foreigners. This is unavoidable.

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13 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Direct quote from Sir Patrick Vallance: "....also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it. Those are the key things we need to do.”

And he was almost immediately corrected by the government who stated clearly that herd immunity was not their aim.

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2 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Mate - stop listening to him - I formed the same opinion some time back. He is either exceptionally lacking in the ability to understand what you are stating, or he is deliberate being argumentative.  I told him that he was in the wrong Dept - the Argument Department was two doors down on the right (Monty Python) - but he keeps coming back. 

Look how your position on this is evolving, a few weeks ago you were telling every one the whole thing was a scam. Maybe your political views will also evolve and in a few weeks you’ll be singing the internationale and wearing red underwear.

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