Covid19 - no need to panic - still

[johnnybangkok]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I don't think so. 

 

We have seen precisely the opposite, that de-centralised responses like the ones in Germany were more successful than centralised attempts like those in London or Paris.

 

Equally in the US when Trump tried to assert central primacy over the reponse to the pandemic it turned out it was the governors who were best placed to deal with their respective outbreaks and Trump backed off.

 

Of course what you are describing in the US has happened almost to the letter in the UK or Germany as well.

 

Your characterisation of Trump's effort is a mere caricature of what actually happened though.

 

As for your prediction that nationalism will not make a come-back, I think that's way off. Most of the people in every country see this virus as having been brought by outsiders. It has already, and will continue to incite nationalism and hatred of foreigners. This is unavoidable.

Let me ask you something then Logosone. You are now all parroting the right-wing media with your 'open up society' solution to this problem but did you also agree with them when they first of all called it 'nothing to worry about' or 'it's no worse than the flu' or 'it's all under control' or that cracker 'it's a Democratic hoax'? 

I mean they have been wrong on every count for literally months until under a barrage of evidence they quickly changed their tune to reflect the severity of the situation and eventually got behind the idea that this might be quite serious.

If someone was telling me the exact opposite of the reality of a situation then I think I might be sceptical of any further 'advice' they might provide but you guys are just still backing any and all of the 'solutions' they are championing.

Where do you draw the line or do yopu n ot care as long as you are 'owning the libs'.?   

Edited April 21, 2020 by johnnybangkok

[Logosone]

 

Despite what Matt Hancock says, the government's policy is still herd immunity

 

When the lockdown is lifted, will the virus return? Of course it will. Matt Hancock has said we will do 100,000 tests each day by the end of April, but Britain still doesn’t have a way to control the virus that goes beyond lockdown. Without a proper programme of community surveillance and contact tracing, we won’t stop the spread of coronavirus. 

 

I asked them whether social distancing alone could beat the virus. “It won’t work,” they told me. “You can stop contact tracing in the hotspots, but when you lift the lockdown, everywhere at the same time, you’ll face a problem: the virus will come back. New hotspots will form.

 

By contrast, the UK was slow to act, and timid when it did. The government mistakenly based its coronavirus response on social distancing alone. The UK’s Scientific Advisory Group of Experts (Sage) didn’t even ask their mathematical advisers to model a community testing programme. Neil Ferguson reportedly said community testing and contact tracing wasn’t included as a possible strategy in the original modelling because not enough tests were available. But we had eight weeks’ notice.

 

The government and its advisers are now committed to their strategy of delaying the spread of coronavirus, which they hope will eventually lead to herd immunity. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

[Logosone]

3 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

Let me ask you something then Logosone. You are now all parroting the right-wing media with your 'open up society' solution to this problem but did you also agree with them when they first of all called it 'nothing to worry about' or 'it's no worse than the flu' or 'it's all under control' or that cracker 'it's a Democratic hoax'? 

I mean they have been wrong on every count for literally months until under a barrage of evidence they quickly changed their tune to reflect the severity of the situation and eventually got behind the idea that this might be quite serious.

If someone was telling me the exact opposite of the reality of a situation then I think I might be sceptical of any further 'advice' they might provide but you guys are just still backing any and all of the 'solutions' they are championing.

Where do you draw the line or do yopu n ot care as long as you are 'owning the libs'.?   

They're parroting me. I'm on record here very early on, saying consistently that the pandemic will not be as bad as some feared, saying that mortality rate was closer to 0.3%, that social distancing does not work, that there is an overreaction. And that is undeniably the case.

 

I'm not really concerned about the comedy show Trump puts on, that's an American issue, I'm not American. I'm just a fair minded German, and as you know therefore I have to speak the truth. Germans don't lie. That is well known. No matter how uncomfortable the truth.

 

I'm afraid your characterisation of Trumps effort is caricature at best. Sure he made mistakes and said some silly things. However, he closed the US for flights from China long before the EU did, against WHO advice. The late testing response was due to the CDC, not him. The poor hospital landscape in the US is not due to him. Trump actually made less mistakes than Merkel, Macron etc., his response was flawed but less so than the response of other leaders.

 

If you think I care about Republican advice, or want to denigrate liberals or democrats you're quite wrong. 

 

I just call it how I see it. 

[chessman]

20 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The government and its advisers are now committed to their strategy of delaying the spread of coronavirus, which they hope will eventually lead to herd immunity. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

Quite funny you are now quoting opinion pieces in the Guardian!

 

It says by the way 'The trouble is, those scientists were wrong. The maths wasn’t difficult: working off their figures, about 40 million people in the UK would be infected by coronavirus, and between 200,000 and 400,000 would eventually die’

 

this is what I said earlier about Thailand and you said herd immunity would be good for Thailand! Hey, in your maths only 138,000 would die. That is the single most stupid thing I've seen written on this forum and, obviously, you have some stiff competition.

Edited April 21, 2020 by chessman

[AussieBob18]

3 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

For a long time now I focus on supporting and cheering up good athletes, which inspire me with their performance. Countries? No, I don't care where they were born, just what they do.
May be I listed too much to John Lennon's "Imagine".

OK for the Olympics I guess. I'll admit the lesser Aussie athlete won that gold medal in skating when he 'did a Badbury' - but I did cheer him over the line - to win you gotta finish ????

 

[johnnybangkok]

13 minutes ago, Logosone said:

They're parroting me. I'm on record here very early on, saying consistently that the pandemic will not be as bad as some feared, saying that mortality rate was closer to 0.3%, that social distancing does not work, that there is an overreaction. And that is undeniably the case.

 

I'm not really concerned about the comedy show Trump puts on, that's an American issue, I'm not American. I'm just a fair minded German, and as you know therefore I have to speak the truth. Germans don't lie. That is well known. No matter how uncomfortable the truth.

 

I'm afraid your characterisation of Trumps effort is caricature at best. Sure he made mistakes and said some silly things. However, he closed the US for flights from China long before the EU did, against WHO advice. The late testing response was due to the CDC, not him. The poor hospital landscape in the US is not due to him. Trump actually made less mistakes than Merkel, Macron etc., his response was flawed but less so than the response of other leaders.

 

If you think I care about Republican advice, or want to denigrate liberals or democrats you're quite wrong. 

 

I just call it how I see it. 

Congratulations, you are now ahead of the right-wing media with your 'the pandemic will not be as bad as some feared'. I hate to break this to you but it IS that bad and continues to get worse.

Hopefully the self-isolation that you so detest will slow it's spread long enough for established methods of testing, identifying and isolating to take effect.

And saying about Trump; 'Sure he made mistakes and said some silly things' is like saying Atilla The Hun was a nice guy who was just misunderstood.'     

[CG1 Blue]

52 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Sure:

 

"Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, has defended the government’s approach to tackling the coronavirus, saying it could have the benefit of creating “herd immunity” across the population."

 

However, Vallance said the government’s approach was aimed at broadening the peak of the epidemic, and allowing immunity to build up among the population.

 

Direct quote from Sir Patrick Vallance: "....also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it. Those are the key things we need to do.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

Flattening the curve was the official government strategy. Vallance was trying to say that some herd immunity should result from flattening the curve. It would be a  bi-product if you like. 

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

48 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Despite what Matt Hancock says, the government's policy is still herd immunity

 

When the lockdown is lifted, will the virus return? Of course it will. Matt Hancock has said we will do 100,000 tests each day by the end of April, but Britain still doesn’t have a way to control the virus that goes beyond lockdown. Without a proper programme of community surveillance and contact tracing, we won’t stop the spread of coronavirus. 

 

I asked them whether social distancing alone could beat the virus. “It won’t work,” they told me. “You can stop contact tracing in the hotspots, but when you lift the lockdown, everywhere at the same time, you’ll face a problem: the virus will come back. New hotspots will form.

 

By contrast, the UK was slow to act, and timid when it did. The government mistakenly based its coronavirus response on social distancing alone. The UK’s Scientific Advisory Group of Experts (Sage) didn’t even ask their mathematical advisers to model a community testing programme. Neil Ferguson reportedly said community testing and contact tracing wasn’t included as a possible strategy in the original modelling because not enough tests were available. But we had eight weeks’ notice.

 

The government and its advisers are now committed to their strategy of delaying the spread of coronavirus, which they hope will eventually lead to herd immunity. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

This is a Guardian opinion column, not fact. And the 'expert' quoted in the article was - "a senior international epidemic expert, who wished to remain anonymous." Ok...

 

And anyway, even if there was an aggressive contract tracing program, and those infected were isolated, and the rest of the population avoided catching the virus, what happens next? Do you continue isolating and contact tracing forever? 

Edited April 21, 2020 by CG1 Blue

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

Congratulations, you are now ahead of the right-wing media with your 'the pandemic will not be as bad as some feared'. I hate to break this to you but it IS that bad and continues to get worse.

Hopefully the self-isolation that you so detest will slow it's spread long enough for established methods of testing, identifying and isolating to take effect.

And saying about Trump; 'Sure he made mistakes and said some silly things' is like saying Atilla The Hun was a nice guy who was just misunderstood.'     

No, even Neil Ferguson admitted his early alarmist figures of 2 million dead in the US and 500,000 dead in the UK will not come to pass. You should have seen the panic figures being quoted on here when it started.

 

It's not as bad as was feared, lockdown is an overreaction and it does not work. Professionals agree:

 

"I asked them whether social distancing alone could beat the virus. “It won’t work,” they told me. “You can stop contact tracing in the hotspots, but when you lift the lockdown, everywhere at the same time, you’ll face a problem: the virus will come back. New hotspots will form."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

[Logosone]

1 minute ago, CG1 Blue said:

This is a Guardian opinion column, not fact. And the 'expert quoted in the article was - "a senior international epidemic expert, who wished to remain anonymous." Ok...

 

And anyway, even if there was an aggressive contract tracing program, and those infected were isolated, and the rest of the population avoided catching the virus, what happens next? Do you continue isolating and contact tracing forever? 

Well, this is the problem isn't it, professionals and politicians alike are very atuned to the fact that a wrong word can end their career or have other negative consequences for them. Witness the predicament of the tories who took their advisors advice and opted for herd immunity, only to be castigated by 'tory genocide' hashtags, daily mail headlines how hundreds of thousands pensioners would die, etc. Even if they believed that was the best option, saying so openly came with a price, as Sir Patrick Vallance found out.

 

Yes, I'm afraid you would have to test, isolate and contact trace if there are flare ups. Hopefully at some point the SARS Cov2 virus would disappear like the original SARS, as transmission is reduced well below critical levels.

 

You have to take the fight to the virus. You just have to. Test, identify, isolate. There is no other way. Merely self-isolating will just cause new waves when the doors are opened at once. Social distancing doesn't really end anything, the virus just comes back when contact is resumed. And it must be resumed eventually.

 

 

[AussieBob18]

1 hour ago, johnnybangkok said:

And what you have written is classic Trump, Fox, OANN, Rush Limbaugh right wing propaganda. I only wish right wing anti-golbalists would have an original thought in their head other than blindly follow the obvious misinformation spewing out of the right wing media.

If anything the Covid crisis has shown that a cohesive, centralised government with established instituations that predict and handle major events such as this are more important than ever. Trump has shown the downside of shutting down your pandemic department, not listening to the experts and going your own way. There was ample time to get the American house in order but a solid month of first ignoring it, then denying it, then minimising it and even joking about it has left the USA in a terrible state with C19. Trump called it a Democratic hoax, spread false information about the severity, blamed the Obama administration and championed untested and potentially dangerous cures. His lack of federal guidance has left states in a mish-mash of solutions, with some backing self-isolation whilst others don't. States are having to bid against each other for essential supplies and even now, testing (which we have all agreed is the way forward) is no-where near the level it needs to be to contain the virus. Against all scientific advice Trump pushed for the country to be open by Easter, then the end of April and now mid-May. He has actively encouraged people to gather in numbers with no social distancing with his 'liberate Minnesota", "liberate Michigan" and "liberate Virginia" nonsense whilst still perpetuating his 'it's no worse than the flu' doctrine that his cult followers are still following. His Captain Chaos approach has lead to the highest rate of infections recorded by any country and 42,500 deaths (and counting). His 'press conferences' are still full of misinformation, self-congratulations and downright lies and resemble a Trump rally more than the information and leadership role it's supposed to play. The man is a walking disister but his cult followers are either blind to all this or so willfully ignorant that they continue to preach his ludicrous notions of 'less government' and 'freedom is more important than death'.

I will predict that after all this, the world will do exactly the opposite of what you say and embrace globalism in the knowledge we are all in this together whilst insisting on more centralised controls so this can never happen again.

As my previous posts have hopefully demonstarted, I am no 'left-wing liberal' as I don't think it's particularly helpful for right wingers to continually bring up the left/right debate (which you all do at every opportunity). I don't think it's important to put labels on people when we can all suffer the same fate, but I will say that the vast majority of the misinformation being thrown around right now is from right-wing media not the 'fake news' your beloved leader likes to demonise so much. And as much as you bemoan the UN, the EU and I'm sure the WHO, they are some of the only voices of reason in a sea of downright stupidity.

And no, patriotism and nationalism isn't coming back for the vast majority of people because we can all clearly see that patriotism and nationalism are just badly marketed excuses for hatred and isolation. They're there to stoke further division and hatred of others, just because they're not in your 'gang'. 

As I said in a previous post, your first post was well thought out and provided a solution of which I wholeheartedly agree (and marked a vast change in tone and content from your previous posts) but you keep spoiling it with your unblinking defence of governments and individuals who are literary throwing fuel on an already out-of-hand fire in the name of some right-wing ideology that is proving to be whoefully lacking at a time when level heads and cohesive solutions are needed most.    

I do hope you feel better after that Mate - let me make a couple of points.

There is far more rubbish and hate coming out of the left wing media - you just agree with it, so you think it is OK.

The untruths and exaggerations about Trump you listed, only shows that to be true - because not only is that rubbish being spewed by the liberal media - the OP issue is how Health Authorities, Media and Govt have unnecessarily created a panic and implemented a social and economic shutdown - but yet you make this about Trump (see the personal nature of liberal attacks?).

Maybe I am wrong and Trump, Brexit was a passing fad - but I very much doubt that.  And I definitely do not agree that people will see the 'benefits' of centralised un-elected bureaucrats controlling their lives in the future.

My original post was a deliberate attempt to put a balanced and fair assessment out there for people to consider. My comments since then are very much in response to the questions and criticisms posted.

Please allow me one more 'grace'. The use of personal insulting terms like 'nazi' and 'sexist' and 'islamaphobe' and 'racist' are all used (over-used) by the liberal left to attack some person who has questioned something or proposed something that they do not agree with. Examples:

Edited April 21, 2020 by AussieBob18

[CG1 Blue]

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No, even Neil Ferguson admitted his early alarmist figures of 2 million dead in the US and 500,000 dead in the UK will not come to pass. You should have seen the panic figures being quoted on here when it started.

 

It's not as bad as was feared, lockdown is an overreaction and it does not work. Professionals agree:

 

"I asked them whether social distancing alone could beat the virus. “It won’t work,” they told me. “You can stop contact tracing in the hotspots, but when you lift the lockdown, everywhere at the same time, you’ll face a problem: the virus will come back. New hotspots will form."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

You're quoting an anonymous 'professional' there. 

 

I am curious to know what your strategy would be if you ran a country. You appear to be against lock downs, but also against herd immunity. Care to share? 

[chessman]

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No, even Neil Ferguson admitted his early alarmist figures of 2 million dead in the US and 500,000 dead in the UK will not come to pass.

He basically stated they will not come to pass in the actual report itself!

 

the results section begin with...

“In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a...”

 

Those figures were a worst case scenario, almost no practical implications 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

27 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You're quoting an anonymous 'professional' there. 

 

I am curious to know what your strategy would be if you ran a country. You appear to be against lock downs, but also against herd immunity. Care to share? 

Yes, a very smart epidemiologist who is aware that he has to express his opinion secretly if he does not want to be pilloried by the social distancing Nazis. And let's face it the social distancing zealotry has taken on ludicrous dimensions in the UK with nurses being attacked for going to work, people at a funeral being attacked for not social distancing etc, the zealots are going massively overboard, not just the police but some members of the general public.

 

Anyway, back to your excellent question what would I do if I ran a country. Of course would depend which country, if it were Germany I could basically do nothing and let the excellent health service and biotech companies do their thing, much like Angela Merkel is doing.

 

In the case of the UK I think Boris Johnson was on the path to doing the right thing. He was forthright with the people, he said some people will die, and he clearly took the advice of the experts that herd immunity was the way to go, as indeed the Swedish are doing. Where he went wrong was to follow the Imperial College advice, when they frantically redid their numbers and advised Boris Johnson that if herd immunity were pursued then the health service would be overwhelmed, like Italy's was. 

 

Another mistake was to simply trust the advisers that there were no tests. That was a lazy, incompetent misjudgement, the UK should have gotten its biotech companies to produce test kits in large numbers.

 

One thing I would have done for sure is to test, identify and isolate the infected. 

 

So basically I would have taken the initial UK approach, asked the elderly to self-isolate and let life continue as normal, with the aim of developing herd immunity, the Swedish approach if you will as well. And then I would have taken the fight to the virus, tested and identified the infected and isolated them. On a grand scale. Germany, which is soon reopening for business again, is the model here.

 

Obviously clinical management goes without saying, ramping up the icu beds, ventilators, etc.

 

I definitely would not have ruined the economies with largely pointless lockdowns, these only work very early on in the pandemic. They are useless.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logosone

[chessman]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I definitely would not have ruined the economies with largely pointless lockdowns, these only work very early on in the pandemic.

You stated earlier that herd immunity would be “desirable” for Thailand. 2nd thoughts about that? 

[AussieBob18]

Getting back to the issue (ignoring the liberal trolls) - there is still no need to panic.

Things are starting to settle down with regards to new infections, and in some places they are stabilising and decreasing. 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200420-sitrep-91-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=fcf0670b_4

Sensible and rational easing of the lockdown provisions must be put in place sooner than later.

Let people get back to work where it is sensible to do so.

[AussieBob18]

3 hours ago, rumak said:

Bob,  you are a real trooper !    After a day or two of politely giving my thoughts on the current

situation I have moved to the sidelines for a much needed rest.  

Your response above is again right on..... after a while the  "conspiracy guys"  and "tin foil hat" comments just show me that we are trying to offer differing opinions to people who's mind just doesn't want to hear it.    At least for some of us,  its nice to know that we are not alone in our views.   Sure,  they are not all exactly the same ...... but close in many ways.

The one thing that is a bit disappointing is how few members can actually express what they as an INDIVIDUAL  feel about certain subjects.    

Best,    Rumak

Thanks mate - much appreciated.

Cheers - Bob.

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Getting back to the issue (ignoring the liberal trolls) - there is still no need to panic.

Things are starting to settle down with regards to new infections, and in some places they are stabilising and decreasing. 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200420-sitrep-91-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=fcf0670b_4

Sensible and rational easing of the lockdown provisions must be put in place sooner than later.

Let people get back to work where it is sensible to do so.

It's already happening, Germany is getting ready to get back to business. Stores opening already, some on Friday at the latest.

[Logosone]

15 minutes ago, chessman said:

You stated earlier that herd immunity would be “desirable” for Thailand. 2nd thoughts about that? 

Herd immunity is desirable for Thailand.

 

I would add that in the absence of testing Thailand is heading in that direction in any event. On 1st May stores will reopen. 

 

 

[chessman]

11 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Things are starting to settle down with regards to new infections, and in some places they are stabilising and decreasing. 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200420-sitrep-91-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=fcf0670b_4

Sensible and rational easing of the lockdown provisions must be put in place sooner than later.

Let people get back to work where it is sensible to do so.

A visual representation with worldwide daily totals of death. You can see they seem to have stopped growing exponentially at the start of April and have been (relatively stable) for 3 weeks now.

 

 

[chessman]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Herd immunity is desirable for Thailand.

Just a crazy statement. What is desirable is to avoid mass uncontrolled outbreaks. Enough countries seem to have managed this to suggest it is not impossible.

[Logosone]

35 minutes ago, chessman said:

Just a crazy statement. What is desirable is to avoid mass uncontrolled outbreaks. Enough countries seem to have managed this to suggest it is not impossible.

It would be crazy not to want herd immunity.

 

It's really the only way the pandemic will end, unless mass testing is done. Which in Thailand, chances are nil that will happen.

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

So basically I would have taken the initial UK approach, asked the elderly to self-isolate and let life continue as normal, with the aim of developing herd immunity, the Swedish approach if you will as well. And then I would have taken the fight to the virus, tested and identified the infected and isolated them. On a grand scale. Germany, which is soon reopening for business again, is the model here.

 

Obviously clinical management goes without saying, ramping up the icu beds, ventilators, etc.

 

I definitely would not have ruined the economies with largely pointless lockdowns, these only work very early on in the pandemic. They are useless.

Germany also implemented one of these 'pointless' lockdowns. Schools closed, shops, bars and restaurants closed, a ban on gatherings of more than 2 people, etc. etc.

 

Germany did not opt for herd immunity. You appear to think that's ok for Germany but not for the UK? Please explain. 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

30 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Germany also implemented one of these 'pointless' lockdowns. Schools closed, shops, bars and restaurants closed, a ban on gatherings of more than 2 people, etc. etc.

 

Germany did not opt for herd immunity. You appear to think that's ok for Germany but not for the UK? Please explain. 

 

 

 

Indeed Germany did also use these utterly pointless social distancing rules as an add-on. We now know of course thanks to an MIT study that being 2 metres away from a person is wholly useless, it would have to be 8 metres. All that social distancing, self-isolation, lockdown brings little benefit. It was testing and identifying and isolating the infected that made Germany succeed where the UK failed. That was the difference. Just look at the UK and Germany. What is the difference? Mass testing. 

 

Germany did not opt for herd immunity because it was able to do mass testing, idenfiying and isolating the infected. In addition its clinical management was perhaps the best in the world. 

 

The UK does not have the ventilators, the icu beds, maybe the UK needed a different approach. If you don't test, what else is there apart from herd immunity?

[CG1 Blue]

38 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Indeed Germany did also use these utterly pointless social distancing rules as an add-on. We now know of course thanks to an MIT study that being 2 metres away from a person is wholly useless, it would have to be 8 metres. All that social distancing, self-isolation, lockdown brings little benefit. It was testing and identifying and isolating the infected that made Germany succeed where the UK failed. That was the difference. Just look at the UK and Germany. What is the difference? Mass testing. 

 

Germany did not opt for herd immunity because it was able to do mass testing, idenfiying and isolating the infected. In addition its clinical management was perhaps the best in the world. 

 

The UK does not have the ventilators, the icu beds, maybe the UK needed a different approach. If you don't test, what else is there apart from herd immunity?

I think Germany would still have implemented a lockdown (probably an even more stringent lockdown) if they didn't have the mass testing and clinical management you talk about. 

But who knows. 

[Logosone]

26 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I think Germany would still have implemented a lockdown (probably an even more stringent lockdown) if they didn't have the mass testing and clinical management you talk about. 

But who knows. 

Most likely. All countries looked at China no doubt. Since the Chinese used lockdown in addition to many other measures like tracing, testing etc it was perhaps inevitable.

 

Desperation makes a country willing to try anything.

 

Of course if they hadn't had testing and clinical management they would only have been left with social distancing, a bit like the UK. 

 

Though to its credit the UK is doing all it can to test now, someone ought to tell Matt Hancock that identifying and isolating the infected should be part of the testing programme.

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logosone

[AussieBob18]

9 hours ago, chessman said:

A visual representation with worldwide daily totals of death. You can see they seem to have stopped growing exponentially at the start of April and have been (relatively stable) for 3 weeks now.

 

 

Yep - I look at this link every day - Daily WHO Report

Open the latest report - scroll down to page 10 - similar graph.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

 

 

[AussieBob18]

10 hours ago, Logosone said:

It's already happening, Germany is getting ready to get back to business. Stores opening already, some on Friday at the latest.

Australia was ridiculous - but what has been imposed in other parts of the world is insane. Germany is an example of way too far - closing stores and locking people in their houses is wrong. And worse than that was happening in UK and USA. People walking alone being arrested on beaches, walking, in their yards, fishing in a boat - that is totalitarianism. 

 

Australia implemented measures differently from State to State, but overall there was not the same impositions. A lot of people lost their jobs though - same as everywhere in world. The economy has crashed and there are massive economic problems everywhere - going to take a long time to recover. But we were not forced to stay home, or to wear a mask when outside. And we can go fishing, walking, golfing, etc - but only as long as the people together live together (under same roof).

 

But while outside we must maintain social distancing of 1.5 metres from others not in the same household. All locations that required people being closely together or touching are closed (pubs, haircuts, movies, massages, most shops). But banks and groceries and shops like KMart and Target are still open - big discounts ????There are queues and lines everywhere and we have to go up this way and back that way - but people are OK with it. In Aust it was too much in some places - in Vic they have gone further and banned a lot more things (like golf). But nowhere have people been locked in their homes and not allowed to freely leave - if they want to.

 

Judging by the numbers and trends it is clear social isolation has slowed the initial spread. But the panic was unnecessary and the massive lockdowns were also not necessary in most places.  The numbers now clearly show, and have shown since mid March, that there was no need for 'public imprisonment'. https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1160311-covid19-no-need-to-panic-still/page/22/?tab=comments#comment-15323159

 

In hindsight I know, but next time I hope they realise that there has to be a balance between people dying and life/economy.  1.25 million people die every year in road accidents - we dont ban private cars - we accept that reality - we take precautions.   TB (and HIV and Flu and may other things) kill lots of people every year - we dont stop life/economy because of that fact. A new and concerning pandemic should have to prove that it is going to kill 200 million - before total lockdowns. SARS-Cov3 (this one is Sars-Cov2)  should be proven to be deadly before total lockdowns are put in place. Partial lockdowns in some locations (eg Wuhan, NY, etc) - but only as and where seriously required. Total lockdown must never be used again until after it is proven to be deadly - not that they think it will be. And if any authority makes that call - if they are wrong - then they and all their team/organisation are sacked (accountability). You may think that harsh - but think about all the people starving and suicide and other human disasters happening now - someone has to be made accountable.

 

Think back and remember AIDS. How many people have since died from AIDS? Over 32 million estimated by WHO - probably more.  And every year another million or two are killed - HIV causes many other deaths.  32 million people dead - and many more still to die - that is a human tragedy - and was the world shut down? No!  What happened is that back then the Govts highlighted and educated people about it - to slow and stop the spread. They did not impose social and economic lockdowns on people - but they made laws about deliberately spreading it.  It became an accepted part of life - take precautions.

 

OK - we now know that 'social distancing' slows the spread of any viral flu - now we do that next time - first.  If there is a reasonable outbreak somewhere, then immediately block all travel to and from that location/country - that is a better safe than sorry situation that is acceptable to do.  Not shutting down most businesses and trying to stop all people dying - it has to be a balance - like all things that kill people. Most will all accept that - we will maintain distance - but we will continue to work and not lose our house/business/job.  We will learn to wear a mask in a pandemic - we will learn to accept staying at home of sick - we will learn to wash our hands - we will stop getting too close to other people we dont know - etc etc etc. The people are willing to be 'educated' - but they are not willing (majority) to suffer economic loss/destruction unnecessarily.

 

If Sars-Cov3 proves to be deadly with an infection rate of over 30% and the same death rate as Ebola - then shut it all down. But only after it is proven to be that deadly - facts - not modelling.  Some people will panic and shut themselves away in their houses when it starts. That is Ok - up to them. Some people will demand we shut the world die or we are all going to die - ignore them - wait for the facts.  No more Govt panicking and locking everyone in their houses - based on a model - no more crying wolf. 

 

As can be clearly shown in life, people who are panicking demand others also panic. It is rare in a panic to find people who will remain calm and look for a rational view of the problem and decided calmly on the best course of action to take - and have a plan B.  People panic and most just follow blindly - they panic until someone tells them to calm down it is all OK - but they never easily stop panicking - it is hard to do. 

 

Govts worldwide were pressured to follow suit because of others panicking.  Sweden is still being criticised for not panicking enough (but not by the majority of its own people). Some people are still thinking that millions are going to die - keep the lockdowns - screw the economy.  Take precautions - but the time to move forward is now.  WHO and all the experts who predicted death and destruction were wrong.

Edited April 22, 2020 by AussieBob18

[mauGR1]

37 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

As can be clearly shown in life, people who are panicking demand others also panic. It is rare in a panic to find people who will remain calm and look for a rational view of the problem and decided calmly on the best course of action to take

Actually it's even worse than that, some of them are going to hate you if you don't panic.

Totalitarianism is just behind the corner, in the name of "science".

..And i thought that the middle age was over, boy, i was wrong.

[Logosone]

The very different responses around the world have shown that there is more than one way to deal with this particular virus outbreak. And they can't all be right. Some of the responses were wrong. It looks like South Korea's, Taiwan's and Germany's responses were more or less the right ones. Taiwan made clear there was no need for masks, and none of them used the extreme forms of social distancing the UK went for. Social distancing only works at the very beginning of a pandemic. If you cordon off and isolate a cluster outbreak you have a chance of containment. Not after the virus has spread. Then lockdowns only serve to give minor delays at best and after they are lifted the virus comes back.

 

Mike Ryan of the WHO was right, you have to take the fight to the virus, test and trace.

 

Some things are still a mystery though. Why was Italy hit so hard? They reacted earlier than most. They put in place more extreme social distancing than most. They tested way more than most. And still they were totally ravaged. Why?

 

The economic cost of the lockdowns will become clearer once accounting is done. And it will hopefully be understood that such lockdowns are only to be used in extreme circumstances, with the most deadly of viruses. Not with the wilful recklessness our governments used them now.

 

However, it will not be an option to only use lockdowns once great mortality is established. Therein lies the paradox. Lockdowns are only of use very early on in an outbreak, but at that time you simply do not know how deadly a virus is.

 

We were lucky with this one. It spread faster than the flu, but it was not as deadly as was feared. The problem is that we know there are coronaviruses with much worse mortality rates, SARS, MERS and there could be a next one with even greater mortality. And we won't know at the start how deadly it will be. That is the problem.

 

This time around our governments showed they do not prepare, warnings in 2012 were ignored. They showed they react late, much too late, thereby allowing the spread of a virus. And they also showed they are wholly ignorant of what measures work, how and to what extent, and that they are prepared to go entirely overboard in a reckless way to damage more than a virus does in their response.

 

In a way our governments have been more dangerous than the virus.

 

We need to develop some vaccines against government.