Number of COVID-19 cases in Thailand continue to decline

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, nkg said:

You can't just claim "every hot country is fixing their numbers".

Name a hot country that is regarded as 1st world (hint: Singapore). Then check their testing numbers and capabilities and results (Should be easy as they are in the headlines today), after that compare to the 3rd world ones. 

 

You got to test to get results.

 

https://www.nber.org/digest/jun01/w8119.html

Quote

Despite their varied economic, political, and social histories, almost all of the tropical countries remain underdeveloped at the start of the 21st century. Only two tropical-zone countries, Hong Kong and Singapore, rank among the 30 countries classified as high-income by the World Bank.

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by DrTuner

[JCP108]

7 minutes ago, nkg said:

 

Indonesia have reported 2 deaths per million, lower than every European country.

 

You can't just claim "every hot country is fixing their numbers".

One can claim that.

[SkyFax]

13 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

My current going theory is

Great -- keep 'em coming.

[DrTuner]

Just now, SkyFax said:

Great -- keep 'em coming.

Will do. Feedback appreciated.

[nkg]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Name a hot country that is regarded as 1st world (hint: Singapore). Then check their testing numbers and capabilities and results (Should be easy as they are in the headlines today), after that compare to the 3rd world ones. 

 

You got to test to get results.

 

https://www.nber.org/digest/jun01/w8119.html

 

 

Singapore is a good example. So is Australia. Both countries have done extensive testing and have excellent healthcare systems. Those countries have real numbers that we can rely on.

 

Let's check the death rate for each country:

 

Singapore 11 deaths (2 deaths per million population)

Australia 71 deaths (3 deaths per million population)

 

Covid doesn't seem very deadly in the two hot countries that we have good numbers for.

 

[nkg]

10 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

One can claim that.

 

One can. Are Singapore and Australia fixing their statistics too? The 2 countries only have 82 deaths between them.

[DrTuner]

30 minutes ago, nkg said:

Covid doesn't seem very deadly in the two hot countries that we have good numbers for.

And that is indeed interesting. I haven't looked yet, but would be interested in the percentage of asymptomatics who have tested positive. I've seen estimates as high as 80%.

 

Countries that test would catch those and the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) plummets. I read today that the positive test rate in NYC was as high as 55%. 

https://medium.com/the-atlantic/a-new-statistic-reveals-why-americas-covid-19-numbers-are-flat-82e9b600551f

Quote

New York City’s positivity rate is an astonishing 55 percent.

 

That's good news, of course, since it too indicates a lot of people would not get any noticeable symptoms.

 

EDIT: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/up-to-70-of-those-infected-may-show-no-symptoms-making-virus-tough-to-tackle

Quote

Asymptomatic persons with the coronavirus disease are more common than was previously thought - some research says potentially as many as 55 per cent to 70 per cent of infections - and they can go on to infect others without anyone ever finding out.

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by DrTuner
typo

[DUNROAMIN]

8 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

So now they should be relaxing the opening of non essential businesses and get people back to work... 

No more excuses.. If the numbers are genuine, then start to try and save a bit of the economy...

That exactly what Japan and Singapore did, and look what happened.

[nkg]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

And that is indeed interesting. I haven't looked yet, but would be interested in the percentage of asymptomatics who have tested positive. I've seen estimates as high as 80%.

 

Countries that test would catch those and the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) plummets. I read today that the positive test rate in NYC was as high as 55%. 

https://medium.com/the-atlantic/a-new-statistic-reveals-why-americas-covid-19-numbers-are-flat-82e9b600551f

 

That's good news, of course, since it too indicates a lot of people would not get any noticeable symptoms.

 

EDIT: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/up-to-70-of-those-infected-may-show-no-symptoms-making-virus-tough-to-tackle

 

 

I admit that I haven't been keeping track of infection rates so much as the death rates.

 

Countries that do more tests are guaranteed to have a higher infections statistic, but since we don't have reliable information on how many tests each country is performing, it is very hard to compare different countries with each other.

 

That's isn't to say that there aren't many interesting things that we can extrapolate from infection rates. But I still regard death rates as the most reliable statistic, at least in the countries who have the resources to test all hospital deaths.

 

It would indeed be good news if such a large percentage of people were asymptomatic ????

Edited April 20, 2020 by nkg
yes

[nkg]

33 minutes ago, DUNROAMIN said:

That exactly what Japan and Singapore did, and look what happened.

 

Japan - 2 deaths per million

Singapore - 2 deaths per million

 

"look what happened" - whatever it was, it didn't result in many deaths. Italy have 391 deaths per million.

[Blumpie]

Again, if you want to talk to he medical experts they still remain unconvinced to this day that hot weather has anything to do with it.  

I'd take every medical expert on earth over a non-medical expert.  

Looking at Italy is skewed, because they just let people die with no medical intervention, so throw that number right out the window.  

Jeez ladies and gentlemen. 

[DrTuner]

8 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

Looking at Italy is skewed, because they just let people die with no medical intervention, so throw that number right out the window.  

That's what happens when hospital capacity gets overwhelmed, the fatality ratio skyrockets. It's the reason for "flattening the curve", also known as decreasing the R0 so the infections spread over longer time, so the health care system can cope. Otherwise patients die in the hallways.

 

Thailand might have gotten lucky with factors such as warm weather decreasing it some, for some unknown reason there could be a lot of asymptomatics and other unknown factors that have spared Thailand from the worst, at least until now. It will remain unknown until randomized mass testing is done to get the real situation on the ground. What if 25-50% already had it without knowing? Need to test, test, test, test. 

 

 

[Blumpie]

I know - it's absolutely ridiculous for any non-medical professional to chime in on separate outcomes.

There are different strains, many different reasons why it may not be so virulent in Thailand.  They have and still continue to assess the situation and it is happening.  

It's the same thing with vaccines and treatments that may become available and when.  Nobody knows.  It could be much earlier than what we are anticipating.

There is no conspiracy as to what is happening - people do not want to shut down entire lives down for something that isn't real.  This is how fake news is barfed out.

There is literally not one medical professional on the planet that thinks that this virus is affected by heat.  Full stop.  

 

[Blumpie]

Just so everyone is aware, there are 200 refrigerated semis in NYC right now holding bodies. Thank goodness the body count is dropping to only 500 per day.  Think about that reduced number for one second.  Old, young, the age or dynamics don't matter, just think about body disposal.  

[lkv]

13 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

just think about body disposal.  

Are you enquiring on the methodology?

 

Better than Wuhan, I can tell you that much.

Edited April 20, 2020 by lkv

[DrTuner]

54 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

Just so everyone is aware, there are 200 refrigerated semis in NYC right now holding bodies. Thank goodness the body count is dropping to only 500 per day.  Think about that reduced number for one second.  Old, young, the age or dynamics don't matter, just think about body disposal.  

Yes, hard work and lots of logistics: https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000007081747/coronavirus-nyc-mass-graves.html

[Soupsandy]

Yes there are plenty of places in Thailand where people are packed in like sardines, there're everywhere 

 

[fraggleRock]

11 hours ago, Canuck1966 said:

Yeh it's freezing in Singapore

I lived in Singapore for years, the Government under Lee Hsien Loong is pretty up front and honest so they are declaring the truth, Thailand on the other hand errr .... following the CCP model I think.... large carpet, lift and sweep!

[fraggleRock]

2 hours ago, lkv said:

Are you enquiring on the methodology?

 

Better than Wuhan, I can tell you that much.

Only Wuhan in China? No other parts of China ? really - but the rest of the world... its lies from CCP

[SkyFax]

8 hours ago, DrTuner said:

8 hours ago, SkyFax said:

Great -- keep 'em coming.

Will do. Feedback appreciated.

Theories 'Я' Us.

[cornishcarlos]

7 hours ago, DUNROAMIN said:

That exactly what Japan and Singapore did, and look what happened.

 

That's not what Singapore at all... 

[Stargeezr]

Glad to see Covid numbers dropping in Thailand. In Canada 36,672 cases, Quebec has 19,317, Ontario

has 11,184. Alberta 2,803. I am wondering why Quebec has had so many cases, did

the travellers not isolate when they returned from the USA and other places?  Was Quebec doing like Sweden for a while longer than the other provinces? Maybe they just have more

senior care centers and many people are infected because of the poor quality of

care in those centers, or at least poor treatment since covid 19 arrived. Must be

some serious reason for all those people to be infected. I just hope that Canada

stays more cautious than the USA appears to be.

Geezer

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, SkyFax said:

Theories 'Я' Us.

Any theory is better than swallowing government propaganda whole.

[SkyFax]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Any theory is better than swallowing government propaganda whole.

As long as the theory is only posted on ThaiVisa and nobody other than those who read about it on ThaiVisa pay any attention to it, maybe so.

[DUNROAMIN]

23 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Japan - 2 deaths per million

Singapore - 2 deaths per million

 

"look what happened" - whatever it was, it didn't result in many deaths. Italy have 391 deaths per million.

Its not over yet. Its just winding up for the next wave.

[nkg]

8 hours ago, DUNROAMIN said:

Its not over yet. Its just winding up for the next wave.

 

Let's give it 3 months and see who was right.

 

I'm guessing that neither Japan nor Singapore will end up with more than 20 deaths per million - probably far less.