Unicef boosts Thailand’s Covid testing push

[Krataiboy]

11 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Tell that to the average of 2,000 deaths per day related to COVID-19 in the US.....Sorry you were elderly or predisposed to other health conditions.  Try again and look at it from outside of the glass house.  Then look at what is occurring again in China, but then you do not really care now.... still trying to use whole year statistics in comparison to a new virus only a few months old.....and then.....those who try to compare it to road deaths here in Thailand.....

Flu stats are seasonal, not whole-year. I'm not downplaying the seriousness of current virus, burt we need to keep a sense of proportion. Otherwise the 'cure" will end up worse than the disease and last a lot longer.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Krataiboy

[Krataiboy]

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Flu death figures taken over an entire year whatever year that maybe is not comparable to the COVID death count when its only be around for not even 4 months yet.

The stats to which I refer are seasonal, not annual. 

[DrTuner]

Ok so I analyzed the leak from 4th of April:

 

The OP lab is at Bamrasnadura, the NIH reference lab is a separate BSL-3 lab. Which is probably why they could do the photo-op in front of the shiny new machine. On April 4 Bamras had done about 5k tests.

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

The stats to which I refer are seasonal, not annual. 

Link please?

 

Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[DrTuner]

Here's a pretty cool set of slides about BIDI's lab, including some history http://bamras.ddc.moph.go.th/th/ic-download/15-Dec-2014/19-siri-Lab.pdf

 

Bet you didn't know they had an ebola scare.

[Krataiboy]

35 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Link please?

 

Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu.

From the numbers you quote, my guess is you are working off the same PHE table I used as a basis for a posting a while back.

 

As well as the 28K figure, I seem to recall, there was also one of 26+K and another of 11,000+K. To the best of my recollection, it covered only the "flu season" months, but I could be wrong and can't check as I didn't keep the graphic.

 

That five-year average of 17,000 influenza deaths is pretty alarming when one considers the fact that millions of Brits having annual flu shots. Food for thought there for those clamouring for a quick vaccine fix to the latest intruder.

 

Time will ultimately determine the vexed question of whether or not the latest coronavirus is worth the damage governments are inflicting upon the economy and society. I tend to agree with the this leading epidemiologist from Sweden, a nation whose reaction to the pandemic has been rather more restrained than that of most of its neighbours.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

28 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

From the numbers you quote, my guess is you are working off the same PHE table I used as a basis for a posting a while back.

 

As well as the 28K figure, I seem to recall, there was also one of 26+K and another of 11,000+K. To the best of my recollection, it covered only the "flu season" months, but I could be wrong and can't check as I didn't keep the graphic.

 

That five-year average of 17,000 influenza deaths is pretty alarming when one considers the fact that millions of Brits having annual flu shots. Food for thought there for those clamouring for a quick vaccine fix to the latest intruder.

 

Time will ultimately determine the vexed question of whether or not the latest coronavirus is worth the damage governments are inflicting upon the economy and society. I tend to agree with the this leading epidemiologist from Sweden, a nation whose reaction to the pandemic has been rather more restrained than that of most of its neighbours.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

 

 

 

The flu death numbers cover the whole year although of course there are more in the flu season. The average deaths of 17,000 per year is high but in no way even touches what current COVID trajectory is for 2020. I'm really not sure why you try to compare flu with COVID as its already clear by all scientists and governments that the death rate is far higher than the flu. 

 

Whether the cure for this virus is worse than the disease itself, now thats another matter and I agree that this needs to be looked at very carefully as the current situation is horrendous for so many.

 

That said, had all countries implemented strict control measures (aside from a select few such as South Korea and Vietnam) as they should have done then this would not be out of control now, they had plenty of warning but failed to act quickly enough and this is now the result. Whats the best solution? I wish I knew. The herd immunity option would allow just too many deaths and health systems throughout the world would be over whelmed. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[Krataiboy]

17 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The flu death numbers cover the whole year although of course there are more in the flu season. The average deaths of 17,000 per year is high but in no way even touches what current COVID trajectory is for 2020. I'm really not sure why you try to compare flu with COVID as its already clear by all scientists and governments that the death rate is far higher than the flu. 

 

Whether the cure for this virus is worse than the disease itself, now thats another matter and I agree that this needs to be looked at very carefully as the current situation is horrendous for so many.

 

That said, had all countries implemented strict control measures (aside from a select few such as South Korea and Vietnam) as they should have done then this would not be out of control now, they had plenty of warning but failed to act quickly enough and this is now the result. Whats the best solution? I wish I knew. The herd immunity option would allow just too many deaths and health systems throughout the world would be over whelmed. 

Agree with a lot of what you say. Except that we cannot rely on the official COVID fatality figures - and even less the fanciful future projections. Even Dr Fauci reckons the overall "clinical consequences" of Covid-19 may ultimately be "akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza".

 

It is a WKF that 21 countries have not resorted to lockdowns and other draconian measures, yet are most faring better in terms of serious illness and deaths than others that have, without destroying their economies. Do listen to the Swedish epidemiologist, as he makes with more authority other points which I won't bore you with here.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

Agree with a lot of what you say. Except that we cannot rely on the official COVID fatality figures - and even less the fanciful future projections. Even Dr Fauci reckons the overall "clinical consequences" of Covid-19 may ultimately be "akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza".

 

It is a WKF that 21 countries have not resorted to lockdowns and other draconian measures, yet are most faring better in terms of serious illness and deaths than others that have, without destroying their economies. Do listen to the Swedish epidemiologist, as he makes with more authority other points which I won't bore you with here.

Who knows what the end will bring, other than right now we are in a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation.  Economies are stretched thin, and its not just because of COVID.  Mismanagement of all programs in all countries has put the monkey on everyone's back.  We may never know what the right combination of procedures towards limiting social contact, changing the numbers allowed in establishments whether its shopping centers, malls, bars, or whatnot will bring for any future virus or pandemic that may occur in the future.  No one will agree with each other whether lockdowns, or no lockdowns is the way to go.  Maybe Think Tanks, and working groups of Emergency personnel from all fields will be able to use the data streams from all over to determine what eventually will become the new normal.  No matter what, the way we lived our lives before this issue arose, has to be changed if we ever want to get the upper hand on any future response to epidemics, or pandemics. 

[Krataiboy]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Who knows what the end will bring, other than right now we are in a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation.  Economies are stretched thin, and its not just because of COVID.  Mismanagement of all programs in all countries has put the monkey on everyone's back.  We may never know what the right combination of procedures towards limiting social contact, changing the numbers allowed in establishments whether its shopping centers, malls, bars, or whatnot will bring for any future virus or pandemic that may occur in the future.  No one will agree with each other whether lockdowns, or no lockdowns is the way to go.  Maybe Think Tanks, and working groups of Emergency personnel from all fields will be able to use the data streams from all over to determine what eventually will become the new normal.  No matter what, the way we lived our lives before this issue arose, has to be changed if we ever want to get the upper hand on any future response to epidemics, or pandemics. 

Scare tactics have long been a favourite weapon of the power-hungry ruling class. Think Cold War, 9/11 and global warming/climate change.

 

This plandemic is more of the same. They hope to frighten us into forfeiting hard-earned rights and freedoms, along with an entire way of life, in return for the undeliverable promise a safer future. 

 

It takes a fool to make such a lousy offer - and an even bigger one to accept it.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Krataiboy

[jojothai]

3 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

Scare tactics have long been a favourite weapon of the power-hungry ruling class. Think Cold War, 9/11 and global warming/climate change.

 

This plandemic is more of the same. They hope to frighten us into forfeiting hard-earned rights and freedoms, along with an entire way of life, in return for the undeliverable promise a safer future. 

 

It takes a fool to make such a lousy offer - and an even bigger one to accept it.

Your points are valid considerations, but you need to take into account that one of the key reasons for the lockdowns and controls is / was to slow the spread of the disease so that health systems can cope. The scare tactics were part of that ploy and well known. Its not as if they were hiding what the objectives were.

 

In Italy, Spain and New York they could barely cope with the numbers even with the lockdowns.

God knows what the situation would have been without the restrictions.

Would that not have led to the situation where hospitals have to turn people away without any medical assistance.

Lets put it straight to people,

Go home and look after yourself. There's only a small percentage die, just hope that you are lucky. 

 

Many people harp on about the fact that there must be far more people infected than the reported numbers, so the percentage of deaths will be much lower than being stated, but so too many deaths are not recorded or reported as Covid 19.

We don't know the true extent of the spread, nor the true extent of deaths from the virus. Only with massive testing and open honesty in reporting will this be resolved. Fat chance of that happening.

A pity that we will likely never see that here and will not know the probability and risk the virus poses.

 

From the point of vulnerability of older people and pre-existing conditions, something that has now been raised is the possibility that blood pressure  medication may assist progression of the virus. The Majority of older people in the western world take blood pressure medication. It becomes necessary for a lot of people over 50.

Reasons for the vulnerability may exist. Are the people going to be simply classified as "high Risk" without due consideration?

If you have not heard of this yet, then try googling "Blood-pressure drugs in COVID-19 research"

 

[Krataiboy]

9 hours ago, jojothai said:

Your points are valid considerations, but you need to take into account that one of the key reasons for the lockdowns and controls is / was to slow the spread of the disease so that health systems can cope. The scare tactics were part of that ploy and well known. Its not as if they were hiding what the objectives were.

 

In Italy, Spain and New York they could barely cope with the numbers even with the lockdowns.

God knows what the situation would have been without the restrictions.

Would that not have led to the situation where hospitals have to turn people away without any medical assistance.

Lets put it straight to people,

Go home and look after yourself. There's only a small percentage die, just hope that you are lucky. 

 

Many people harp on about the fact that there must be far more people infected than the reported numbers, so the percentage of deaths will be much lower than being stated, but so too many deaths are not recorded or reported as Covid 19.

We don't know the true extent of the spread, nor the true extent of deaths from the virus. Only with massive testing and open honesty in reporting will this be resolved. Fat chance of that happening.

A pity that we will likely never see that here and will not know the probability and risk the virus poses.

 

From the point of vulnerability of older people and pre-existing conditions, something that has now been raised is the possibility that blood pressure  medication may assist progression of the virus. The Majority of older people in the western world take blood pressure medication. It becomes necessary for a lot of people over 50.

Reasons for the vulnerability may exist. Are the people going to be simply classified as "high Risk" without due consideration?

If you have not heard of this yet, then try googling "Blood-pressure drugs in COVID-19 research"

 

As someone with hypertension taking an ACE inhibitor, I am aware of the current debate within the medical community whether some heart medicines increase or decrease one's vulnerability to COVID 19. It's a matter of wait and see, I guess.

 

Your posting echoes much of what I imagine a lot of us must be feeling about what we don't know -  or are not being told - about this virus, and the conflicting data and medical opinions coming at us from all

directions.

 

Here are a couple of the (relatively few) arguably sane expert expositions on where we are right now, which Forum members may find informative and helpful in gaining a sense of perspective.

 

.zerohedge.com/health/data-stop-panic-end-total-isolation?utm_campaign=&utm_content=ZeroHedge

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPqmLoZA4s

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Krataiboy

[jojothai]

10 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

Your posting echoes much of what I imagine a lot of us must be feeling about what we don't know -  or are not being told - about this virus, and the conflicting data and medical opinions coming at us from all

directions.

 

Yes, and worst is that we have little or no idea of how prevelant the virus is here.

If they test a lot and find say 20% prevalence already, then with such a low rate of serious cases amd death, why continue with any lockdowns.

Its possible we are very lucky here in thailand because of the heat /climatic conditions.

However next winter may be a different problem, and the gods need to start thinking that the testing now is paramount.

I cannot see any hope that will happen.

[Krataiboy]

2 minutes ago, jojothai said:

Yes, and worst is that we have little or no idea of how prevelant the virus is here.

If they test a lot and find say 20% prevalence already, then with such a low rate of serious cases amd death, why continue with any lockdowns.

Its possible we are very lucky here in thailand because of the heat /climatic conditions.

However next winter may be a different problem, and the gods need to start thinking that the testing now is paramount.

I cannot see any hope that will happen.

Do watch the video I recommended. It will help put your mind at rest.