Follow the science....

[Logosone]

The truth comes out regarding the Social Distancer General, Neil Ferguson. Turns out he has a record of getting it wrong. His modelling was wrong before with disastrous consequences:

 

Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University said Prof Ferguson was previously instrumental in modelling that led to the cull of more than 6 million animals during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, which left rural Britain economically devastated. Then, Prof Ferguson and his Imperial colleagues concluded: 'Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic.' But Prof Thrusfield, an expert in animal diseases, claimed the model made incorrect assumptions about how foot and mouth disease was transmitted and, in a 2006 review, he claimed Imperial's foot and mouth model was 'not fit for purpose', while in 2011 he said it was 'severely flawed'. Prof Thrusfield told The Daily Telegraph the episode was 'a cautionary tale' about the limits of mathematical modelling and he felt a sense of 'déjà vu' about the current situation.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8258043/Professor-Neil-Ferguson-warns-100-000-UK-coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-lifted-soon.html

[mauGR1]

13 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

Look at all the Aussies signing up for the Trace my movement and contacts App !! 

Because they are told that is the quickest way to relax restrictions !!!

Alarming, isn't it, there seems to be a very well thought plan.

[Logosone]

26 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Alarming, isn't it, there seems to be a very well thought plan.

It is indeed alarming that the supposed hotshot experts in the UK actually have a track record of getting it wrong.

 

Let's not forget countries are basically copying each other's measures.

 

However, probably not a plan, more a case of putting people in charge who are not fit to make decisions. 

 

Mathematical modelling was never going to work to such a degree that it can decide on a government's economy. Reality is to0 complex for such modelling. 

 

As the UK found out to its cost, after it backed the supposed experts. They put in place a social distancing policy which looking at the UK's figures has not exactly done very well.

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Logosone

[mauGR1]

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

However, probably not a plan, more a case of putting people in charge who are not fit to make decisions. 

Probably we disagree with this point.

"The leaders are stupid" theory looks very convenient to me. And if it was the opposite ?

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Probably we disagree with this point.

"The leaders are stupid" theory looks very convenient to me. And if it was the opposite ?

 

Well, Boris Johnson basically abdicated and put his scientific advisors in charge. It was their policy that was the problem. 

 

Also bear in mind all around the globe people are doing the same. If this was a super-smart conspiracy would be a bit hard to keep that quiet.

 

I firmly tend towards this is a case of stupidity rather than genius planning.

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Well, Boris Johnson basically abdicated and put his scientific advisors in charge. It was their policy that was the problem. 

 

Also bear in mind all around the globe people are doing the same. If this was a super-smart conspiracy would be a bit hard to keep that quiet.

 

I firmly tend towards this is a case of stupidity rather than genius planning.

Uhm, ok, i agree with you on the first line, and apparently it's happening the same all over the world.

So basically we have "scientific advisors" in charge.

Perhaps it's normal for you, i think it's very strange.

[Peter Denis]

16 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Uhm, ok, i agree with you on the first line, and apparently it's happening the same all over the world.

So basically we have "scientific advisors" in charge.

Perhaps it's normal for you, i think it's very strange.

I think we have politicians in charge, that follow c.q. hide behind the advice given by their 'scientific advisors' so that their political adversaries cannot use the argument that they 'endangered the country and killed thousands of people' by neglecting the 'science'.

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

I think we have politicians in charge, that follow c.q. hide behind the advice given by their 'scientific advisors' so that their political adversaries cannot use the argument that they 'endangered the country and killed thousands of people' by neglecting the 'science'.

That's an interesting perspective, but i don't see politicians of opposite factions making lots of noise, and given the situation i find it rather worrying.

What it looks interesting is that "scientific advisors", from the highest to the lowest level, seem to be fumbling in the dark, yet we have to "listen to them" at least according to all those in power, and specially the mainstream media.

[smutcakes]

5 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

That's an interesting perspective, but i don't see politicians of opposite factions making lots of noise, and given the situation i find it rather worrying.

What it looks interesting is that "scientific advisors", from the highest to the lowest level, seem to be fumbling in the dark, yet we have to "listen to them" at least according to all those in power, and specially the mainstream media.

Presumably 'we listen to them 'because they have considerably more knowledge than you or the politicians, and they have presented that knowledge to those making the decisions.. Sure they dont always get it right, but you would expect that if anyone can make suggestions it is them. Unless you believe all scientists are wrong and we should not believe anything they say, and they are all in on a big conspiracy to get you to sign up on an app.

 

I am sure there is not one massive global conspiracy going on that everyone from politicians to scientists in every country even enemies are all in on lol

 

Politicians are not scientists, so i expect they let scientists dictate what is to happen. Would you as a politician go against what you were being advised... That is a recipe for a very quick career and a period in jail if many were to die based on you going against medical advice.

Edited April 30, 2020 by smutcakes

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, smutcakes said:

Presumably 'we listen to them 'because they have considerably more knowledge than you or the politicians, and they have presented that knowledge to those making the decisions..

It's ok, that's a good point, and let me guess, your life is not being affected by the lock downs and the shutting of the economies of many millions.

But i think that those whose lives have been ruined by "the ones who have more knowledge" have the right to ask questions, and like all those who are doing a job, "the ones who have more knowledge" have to be accountable for their mistakes.

 

[smutcakes]

5 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

It's ok, that's a good point, and let me guess, your life is not being affected by the lock downs and the shutting of the economies of many millions.

But i think that those whose lives have been ruined by "the ones who have more knowledge" have the right to ask questions, and like all those who are doing a job, "the ones who have more knowledge" have to be accountable for their mistakes.

 

I am affected the same as many others. Not as bad as some, but more than others.

 

How do you propose to hold scientists accountable? String them up? Jail them? What do you suggest?

 

No one is preventing anyone from asking questions, you do it on a daily basis and more. Every forum, outlet i the world is full of people asking questions.

 

And if they decided to open up as you wish and the virus spread quickly and many died, would you also call for them to be accountable?  Nice choice they have there.

 

Obviously the lock down is having a catastrophic affect on many lives, but at some point i really believe you have to put a level of trust in Governments/Scientists. They all have families as well and other than extreme weirdos wants people dying on their watch,

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by smutcakes

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

How do you propose to hold scientists accountable? String them up? Jail them? What do you suggest?

 

So for you it's perfectly normal for millions to be deprived of their constitutional rights from "the ones who have more knowledge".

Ok, just don't expect everyone, especially the young people, to accept it quietly.

Obviously i understand and respect your point of view, but the divide in the society is increasing at unprecedented levels, and i fail to see a positive side in that.

[UbonThani]

13 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

And if they decided to open up as you wish and the virus spread quickly and many died, would you also call for them to be accountable?  Nice choice they have there.

many compared to what?

heart disease 18m

roads 1.25m

flu 500k

 

time has come to open up in many countries

 

 

[Logosone]

35 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Presumably 'we listen to them 'because they have considerably more knowledge than you or the politicians, and they have presented that knowledge to those making the decisions.. Sure they dont always get it right, but you would expect that if anyone can make suggestions it is them. Unless you believe all scientists are wrong and we should not believe anything they say, and they are all in on a big conspiracy to get you to sign up on an app.

 

I am sure there is not one massive global conspiracy going on that everyone from politicians to scientists in every country even enemies are all in on lol

 

Politicians are not scientists, so i expect they let scientists dictate what is to happen. Would you as a politician go against what you were being advised... That is a recipe for a very quick career and a period in jail if many were to die based on you going against medical advice.

I used to dream of a country run by scientists and experts. No more.

 

It has become clear that when you put scientists in charge and give them one goal, to save lives, they loose sight of everything else. It is that famous tunnel vision we know so well in Germany, where someone can be an expert in one thing but a fool in all others.

 

Clearly here we have seen that if you put scientists in charge the economy will go to hell because scientists do not care one iota about the economy, all they care about is solving one particular issue. It would behoove Boris Johnson to ponder if he made a mistake in putting scientists in charge in this way.

 

However, as Peter said, it is clear why politicians hide behind scientists on this one. They know popularity is the manna of politics, and it is very easy to get it wrong and hard to remain popular with an issue like this. There is no hiding with covid. Either you got it wrong, or not. So in comes "we are only guided by the science"...."nothing to do with us"...

 

As to whether Politicians should go against what they were advised, it depends on the advice. Boris Johnson was advised there would be no tests in large numbers. So testing was not considered in the policy and models. Boris Johnson should not have accepted PHE's word on this. He should have asked "what about our biotech companies, can they deliver the tests". Or perhaps one of the experts should have asked this. Neil Ferguson didn't. In came social distancing Nazism and we're all paying the price world wide.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Logosone

[smutcakes]

44 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

So for you it's perfectly normal for millions to be deprived of their constitutional rights from "the ones who have more knowledge".

Ok, just don't expect everyone, especially the young people, to accept it quietly.

Obviously i understand and respect your point of view, but the divide in the society is increasing at unprecedented levels, and i fail to see a positive side in that.

I am 37.

[smutcakes]

43 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

many compared to what?

heart disease 18m

roads 1.25m

flu 500k

 

time has come to open up in many countries

 

 

Last time i checked heart disease was not contagious.  200K have died in 3 months with unprecedented global lockdowns in place. It is nothing like flu. Without lockdowns it appeared as if the infection rate was going to rise exponteially and you would assume death toll as well. 

 

I am not denying serious consideration and steps need to be taken to ease restrictions and get things moving again but your flippant attitude to the disease and comparoing it to flu is clearly nonsense as you would see from the deaths many countries have experienced. 

 

Comparing it to road fatalities and heart disease is not even worth commenting on which you should well know.

[cornishcarlos]

4 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Alarming, isn't it, there seems to be a very well thought plan.

 

Quote from the Aussie PM, taken from BBC news site.

 

"Prime Minister Scott Morrison said wide usage would be the "ticket" to normal life resuming as soon as possible"

 

There you go, sign up or stay locked up.. 

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Quote from the Aussie PM, taken from BBC news site.

 

"Prime Minister Scott Morrison said wide usage would be the "ticket" to normal life resuming as soon as possible"

 

There you go, sign up or stay locked up.. 

Next step, they'll say that the microchip under the skin is better, what's not to be happy ?????

[Logosone]

22 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Next step, they'll say that the microchip under the skin is better, what's not to be happy ?????

It will probably happen that the UK will introduce an ID card now that is compulsory rather than optional.

 

Just to track for virus purposes.

 

Labour wanted to introduce this in 2006 but the Tories scrapped it. It's just voluntary in the UK now I think.

[Peter Denis]

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It will probably happen that the UK will introduce an ID card now that is compulsory rather than optional.

...

Nothing wrong with an ID-card, so you don't need a drivers license or your passport when needing to prove who you are.

But a mandatory tracking-app on your mobile phone, or a chip implanted in your body to be able to track you, is of a totally different order and the Wet Dream of Big Brother.

An even more scary development is the race for a successful vaccine against Covid-19 (in UK one has already been successfully tested on monkeys and from a group of 5000 volunteers, 1000 persons have already been vaccinated for testing purposing).

In these crazy times, it is well possible that some countries would make it mandatory to have a Vaccination Certificate in order to get permission to enter the country.  Scary...

[belfast3]

YouTube have taken the video down. Welcome to 1984 ????

[Peter Denis]

8 minutes ago, belfast3 said:

YouTube have taken the video down. Welcome to 1984 ????

Yes, not available on YouTube anymore,

But here's another link to it >

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/other/dr-erickson-covid-19-briefing/vi-BB133JTK

[CGW]

1 hour ago, belfast3 said:

YouTube have taken the video down. Welcome to 1984 ????

YouTube, Twitter, etc are now the global Police force, they are busy taking down anything that disagrees with the new "Agenda"

Sure all the comments on "Kill Bill Gates" FB & Twitter have long been deleted! They were not very kind, rightfully so ????

[chessman]

Imagine you are buying a car and you ask about the safety record of two similar cars. The dealer says ‘we sold 5.3 million of this car and 207 people have been killed in fatal accidents’. Then you ask about the similar car and the dealer says “we sold 10.2 million of this car and 2586 people have been killed in fatal accidents”. You are surprised at the difference and suggest the 1st car is much safer. The dealer shakes his head and states that there is basically no difference.

 

that is the argument these guys are making about Sweden and Norway. 

[Logosone]

29 minutes ago, chessman said:

Imagine you are buying a car and you ask about the safety record of two similar cars. The dealer says ‘we sold 5.3 million of this car and 207 people have been killed in fatal accidents’. Then you ask about the similar car and the dealer says “we sold 10.2 million of this car and 2586 people have been killed in fatal accidents”. You are surprised at the difference and suggest the 1st car is much safer. The dealer shakes his head and states that there is basically no difference.

 

that is the argument these guys are making about Sweden and Norway. 

That's not too bad. It's the car made in the UK that you can never leave once you get in that would have me worried. At least you can get out of the car that sold 10.2 million times.

 

Also if the UK car would bankrupt me forever, I would probably not buy that car.

 

But of course the dealer didn't tell you that.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Logosone

[CG1 Blue]

17 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's not too bad. It's the car made in the UK that you can never leave once you get in that would have me worried. At least you can get out of the car that sold 10.2 million times.

 

Also if the UK car would bankrupt me forever, I would probably not buy that car.

 

But of course the dealer didn't tell you that.

So you still mention the UK in virtually every comment you make. Can't you give it a rest, or at least explain why mentioning the UK all the time gives you such a h on? 

[Logosone]

I don't mention the UK in every comment, just look at the Swiss thread, the house thread, or the movies thread, however, in this instance the policy of social distancing is primarily espoused by the UK. It was the Imperial College modelling superstars like Neil Ferguson that led the UK to adopt social distancing, which the UK is still following. Since we are discussing which scientific policies succeeded and which failed it is only to be expected to mention the one policy that is failing abysmally, the UK policy. Seventy percent more deaths than Germany. Ten times the deaths of Sweden, with only six times the population. That's quite an epic failure by UK experts there.

 

 

[cornishcarlos]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

Imagine you are buying a car and you ask about the safety record of two similar cars. The dealer says ‘we sold 5.3 million of this car and 207 people have been killed in fatal accidents’. Then you ask about the similar car and the dealer says “we sold 10.2 million of this car and 2586 people have been killed in fatal accidents”. You are surprised at the difference and suggest the 1st car is much safer. The dealer shakes his head and states that there is basically no difference.

 

that is the argument these guys are making about Sweden and Norway. 

 

I like that...

 

However the car dealer might have said " 2586 people out of 10.2 million people who bought this car died while out having fun. But 207 people out of 5.3 million, who bought this car, died at home cause they weren't allowed to take the car out" 

 

How would new sales look then ??

[jimmybcool]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

Imagine you are buying a car and you ask about the safety record of two similar cars. The dealer says ‘we sold 5.3 million of this car and 207 people have been killed in fatal accidents’. Then you ask about the similar car and the dealer says “we sold 10.2 million of this car and 2586 people have been killed in fatal accidents”. You are surprised at the difference and suggest the 1st car is much safer. The dealer shakes his head and states that there is basically no difference.

 

that is the argument these guys are making about Sweden and Norway. 

I think the problem we all have is that the numbers collected aren't sampled the same across different nations.  For example I don't believe China,  Indonesia and India have fewer people infected than the USA alone.  It's a question of testing and medical systems reporting accurate data.  

 

I wish I had the answer to how to get our economies rolling again and controlling the virus.  They seem at counterpoint to each other.  Guess we need to determine how damaging the economic ruin is in comparison to how many lives are actually saved by shutting down.

 

As a guy who qualifies as "high risk" I'm OK with trying to get the world moving again.  I would take a higher risk to myself so that families that are seeing financial ruin have a chance to get back on their feet.

[Logosone]

5 minutes ago, jimmybcool said:

I think the problem we all have is that the numbers collected aren't sampled the same across different nations.  For example I don't believe China,  Indonesia and India have fewer people infected than the USA alone.  It's a question of testing and medical systems reporting accurate data.  

 

I wish I had the answer to how to get our economies rolling again and controlling the virus.  They seem at counterpoint to each other.  Guess we need to determine how damaging the economic ruin is in comparison to how many lives are actually saved by shutting down.

 

As a guy who qualifies as "high risk" I'm OK with trying to get the world moving again.  I would take a higher risk to myself so that families that are seeing financial ruin have a chance to get back on their feet.

I totally agree, there is a big argument as to how the figures in Japan are not accurate. If you can't trust Japan to provide accurate numbers, you can forget China, Thailand, Vietnam or South Korea. None of their figures are accurate or even an attempt to be.

 

A lot of older people in Germany say the same, btw, they'd rather everything reopen.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Logosone