Covid-19: Thailand's outbreak will be all over by June - world must wait till November

 

 

Picture: Daily News

 

Figures from the Singapore University of Technology and Design suggest that Thailand's Covid-19 outbreak is already largely over.

 

But it will be mid-June until the kingdom gets the 100% all clear. 

 

The Data Driven Innovation Laboratory connected to the university published figures for the end of Covid-19 itemising when 97%, 99% and 100% eradication would be reached. 

 

For Thailand 97% had already passed on April 26th, 99% would be on May 7th and 100% on June 11th.

 

The UK was rated as  17th May, 29th May and 20th August.

 

The US was 15th May, 27th May and 5th of September. 

 

The world as a whole was 30th May, 6th of June and 27th November. 

 

Source: Daily News

 

 

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Picture: Daily News

what i said 6 weeks ago

no spreadsheet needed

It's a bit hard to see but according to this it's already over in China. Hands up who believes this. Guess that puts a bit of a question mark on the varacity of these figures. 

This is the disclaimer from their website.

*Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.

15 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

what i said 6 weeks ago

no spreadsheet needed

Only your outstanding mind and unmistakable feeling ...
Good to know whom to trust next time ...

7 hours ago, UbonThani said:

what i said 6 weeks ago

no spreadsheet needed

 

7 hours ago, rebo said:

Only your outstanding mind and unmistakable feeling ...
Good to know whom to trust next time ...

Lottery number predictions please.....oh gifted one.....

who wrote this bullrubish

Speculation, nonsense, insert whatever word to describe this article.

Did TAT order this?

 

No consideration for a possibly / likely second wave.

This 'suggestion' is worthless.

A.I. modeling? What happened to the second and third, even fourth waves?

39 minutes ago, webfact said:

For Thailand 97% had already passed on April 26th, 99% would be on May 7th and 100% on June 11th.

TAT is probably already feverishly working on a new press release predicting three gazillion foreign tourists to be swamping the kingdom from June 12 onward. Wait and see!

Unless the borders are open to the Chinese and other tourists, then Thailand will be in December before improvements even start to show, if at all. ????

 

It's also supposed to be 100% over in South Korea, too, yet they've already reported 9 new cases and 2 deaths today.

If they can't even be bothered to check their predictions against reality and adjust their model accordingly then it's worthless.

and it shows China as completed recuperated 555   555  document must have been prepared by the Chinese or their relatives

13 minutes ago, Guderian said:

It's also supposed to be 100% over in South Korea, too, yet they've already reported 9 new cases and 2 deaths today.

If they can't even be bothered to check their predictions against reality and adjust their model accordingly then it's worthless.

9 cases in a country of 50 mil is noise. Deaths will always lag the illness. And sure there'll be stray cases popping up all over the world next few years. End date presumably means end of epidemic, not zero forever.

 

So relax, smile, whistle a tune.

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

49 minutes ago, rebo said:

Only your outstanding mind and unmistakable feeling ...
Good to know whom to trust next time ...

Trump wins next election

 

Many countries in the "world" will see it gone before Thailand according to that list.

 

So Thailand, much as it must hurt them, is just another country, waiting, along with the rest, for it to be over.

 

"They" really do talk **** sometimes.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Guderian said:

It's also supposed to be 100% over in South Korea, too, yet they've already reported 9 new cases and 2 deaths today.

If they can't even be bothered to check their predictions against reality and adjust their model accordingly then it's worthless.

9 cases?

 

Thats nothing

 

1m die every week

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

It's a bit hard to see but according to this it's already over in China. Hands up who believes this. Guess that puts a bit of a question mark on the varacity of these figures. 

This is the disclaimer from their website.

*Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.

Details? don't bother me with details...

 

I have just downloaded the PDF file for this and Thailand isn't even mentioned on it! (Taiwan is)

9 minutes ago, Phuketshrew said:

I have just downloaded the PDF file for this and Thailand isn't even mentioned on it! (Taiwan is)

Obviously some sort of 'misunderstanding'.

Who knows if they are right, however you'd have to give them more credibility than the anonymous doomsayers here.

Worthless piece of tripe (in my view) Speculative piece of analysis. Time will surely tell .......

 

 

Set these data chompers on the road death figures also .. They could work wonders with those .. 

Obviously this study is educational for basic classes of mathematical statistics:
They use only the 1st (arithmetic mean) and 2nd (standard deviation) moment to fit a Gauß-distribution to empirical data.
(blue line)
Maybe in the second course there will be an introduction of fitting curves even using the 3rd (skewness) moment? (red line)
                       IMHO would provide a better fit and a better prognosis!

2 hours ago, OnTheGround said:

Speculation, nonsense, insert whatever word to describe this article.

Did TAT order this?

 

No consideration for a possibly / likely second wave.

This 'suggestion' is worthless.

And disbelief, negativity, cynicism, distrust and (again) Thai (TAT) bashing again on TV..   as expected. 

 

Even the slightest positivity, this time from Singapore, must be drilled into the ground. 

 

Calling 3000 cases an "Outbreak" is a joke !

 

And a study on a joke is good for propaganda ... there was no outbreak ! But a lot of fake statistics.

Hospitals in Germany are empty just like in Thailand and still everybody talks about a Pandemic.

 

... the numbers show it is FAKE !!!

 

 

1 hour ago, Phuketshrew said:

I have just downloaded the PDF file for this and Thailand isn't even mentioned on it! (Taiwan is)

Its on the pdf file that I downloaded.

Mind you, I'm using a VPN.

Perhaps some countries are only allowed censored versions depending on your ISP location.

Its gonna be a problem if the people get optimistic that the emergency will be over. ????

13 minutes ago, brain150 said:

Calling 3000 cases an "Outbreak" is a joke !

 

And a study on a joke is good for propaganda ... there was no outbreak ! But a lot of fake statistics.

Hospitals in Germany are empty just like in Thailand and still everybody talks about a Pandemic.

 

... the numbers show it is FAKE !!!

 

 

So 50k plus Americans and 20k Brits didn’t die then? That’s a relief.
 

the only thing fake is your use of the word “fake” just like his highness the fakester in chief who believes he is King of the USA

Here in Perth we have had 1 new case in 4 days and that was the wife of someone who had it.  We are very safe but we still have strict social distancing rules and maximum groups of 10 people.  Limited travel within WA and nobody is allowed into the state except trucks.  Kids went back to school today. so I think we are one of the best places to be right now, but nobody wants to rush and open everything up too soon, like in Thailand and especially USA.  It will come back and bite again

Every major pandemic comes in multiple waves. The second wave typically being more deadly as the first. Why would this pandemic be different? There is no reason to believe this pandemic will behave very different. Second, there is a clear seasonal aspect. Just like the flu and other corona virusses, they thrive in the winter. And so did Covid. And next winter it will thrive again, it is only logic.

 

My 5 cent: expect a second wave from around December. And expect it to be much worse as this one, as meanwhile the virus is widespread, latently present and ready to explode once winter conditions set in.