Covid-19: Thailand's outbreak will be all over by June - world must wait till November

[johno49]

If anyone thinks that this bull is even readable let alone believable is off their bloody head, what a load of garbage, i can't even comment on this rubbish i'm gobsmacked

[gamesgplayemail]

we are so lucky <3

 

 

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, gamesgplayemail said:

we are so lucky ❤️

Wanna buy an amulet? I can procure real lucky ones, also in bulk.

[P100]

7 hours ago, OnTheGround said:

Speculation, nonsense, insert whatever word to describe this article.

Did TAT order this?

 

No consideration for a possibly / likely second wave.

This 'suggestion' is worthless.

true! and China is already free of Chinese Corona, 1000% sure! What a mirracle! Wait till they come and bring it back causing a second wave...

Edited April 29, 2020 by P100

[Krataiboy]

57 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

how old are you?

Old enough to have studied history.

[herwin1234]

40 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Wanna buy an amulet? I can procure real lucky ones, also in bulk.

just great. ridiculing the believes of yr new home country. 

[Yadon Toploy]

5 hours ago, Aussie999 said:

Strange, the official pdf, https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end, from the DDI site, doesn't even mention Thailand, and it's updated daily... someone is spreading fake news, one can only guess who.

Maybe it is that PR firm hired to praise the Thai Govt. COVID response efforts?

 

Who did hire them again? It still hasn't been confirmed as far as I am aware...

[Krataiboy]

1 hour ago, GAZZPA said:

I take it you disagree. So what do you forecast will happen? I think we will beat it with a vaccine and not before. Can't see how we will beat it without one, it is now growing in South America, we can only hope the warmer climate will slow the spread there.

It is expected to take at least eighteen months to develop, properly test and market a vaccine in sufficient quantities for widespread use.

 

By then, it is reasonable to anticipate the virus will have died out in countries with low infection rates. Those nations which have suffered most must be well onthe way to achieving herd immunity, which is the best protection against any virus.

 

Vaccines, we know to our cost, have a chequered history.

[Yadon Toploy]

5 minutes ago, herwin1234 said:

just great. ridiculing the believes of yr new home country. 

Thailand is only home to the Thais. 

 

We only stay here temporarily, despite what some wish to believe.

[GAZZPA]

12 minutes ago, herwin1234 said:

just great. ridiculing the believes of yr new home country. 

It was your referencing to world war 1 I was referring to really, anyway its was just a little joke.. stay safe

[3NUMBAS]

los is in dreamland still ..todays expats are the last collection for decades so make em last .as no planes will be flying for donkeys years

[GAZZPA]

7 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

It is expected to take at least eighteen months to develop, properly test and market a vaccine in sufficient quantities for widespread use.

 

By then, it is reasonable to anticipate the virus will have died out in countries with low infection rates. Those nations which have suffered most must be well onthe way to achieving herd immunity, which is the best protection against any virus.

 

Vaccines, we know to our cost, have a chequered history.

I see your logic, the only part 

[GAZZPA]

Just now, GAZZPA said:

I see your logic, the only part 

Sorry pressed too soon. The only part I would question is the development and distribution of a virus. The race is on and the vaccine is already being tested in many countries so it will unlikely take 18 months. I suspect the virus will be ready by the end of this year and manufacturing will have begun, based upon what I have read and heard. Many countries may have beaten the virus by then but many not so I still think we will like with partial lifting of the current lockdowns with social distancing remaining until there is a vaccine. Anyway, we will see. we cant stay on lockdown for too long for reasons I am sure you understand.

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, vermin on arrival said:

Well the new "normal" might be people out and about working with masks on, using hand sanitizer, having temperature checks, Having less physical contact, but with a society that can function in some way. And of course, much more fast and relatively inexpensive testing so we really understand what is going on. I saw Taiwan has developed one machine that can do the test in 15 minutes.

I can see that scenario happening, or at least something very similar.

[Salerno]

6 hours ago, BobBKK said:

They are entering C19 on death certs. I would like to see the normal amount of deaths vs now.  If its normally 20,000 and now 40,000 fair enough.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

[geoff65]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's outbreak will be all over by June

Don't count your chickens before your egg hatch.

[jojothai]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

The calculation was on 26th according to the OP, since then SUTD has decided not to publish them or the fitted SIR graphs for Thailand.

 

I'd love to know why. The data from ECDC - MoPH has been updated, so it's not that.

Problem noted in earlier posts. They seem to have removed Thailand from the official website version.

Conspiracy theories as you please.

The powers that be here may not want people expecting to be released from the emergency too soon.

 

You can see the Thailand figures if you go to the version at this link.

https://lasillarotarm.blob.core.windows.net.optimalcdn.com/docs/2020/04/28/covid19predictionpaper.pdf

[Caine]

Codwallap this virus is the slow end of mankind. Just hope the rest of the world wipe China of the face of the planet with nuclear strkes  before it catches up with me. I will die a happy man.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Caine

[Drew3223]

@CaineJudging by your attitude your end is only a year away as you sound like a miserable old git lol

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, herwin1234 said:

just great. ridiculing the believes of yr new home country. 

Not my home country, I'm a paying customer. Some believes, like believing the usurper "government" is being transparent about it's covid numbers, is practically designed to be ridiculed. Just too juicy.

[DrTuner]

41 minutes ago, jojothai said:

Problem noted in earlier posts. They seem to have removed Thailand from the official website version.

Conspiracy theories as you please.

The powers that be here may not want people expecting to be released from the emergency too soon.

 

You can see the Thailand figures if you go to the version at this link.

https://lasillarotarm.blob.core.windows.net.optimalcdn.com/docs/2020/04/28/covid19predictionpaper.pdf

Thanks, a shame the graph wasn't there. I'd like to see how it fits. Could of course take the algo and fit the data myself, but my matlab days are far in the rear view mirror.

[GAZZPA]

2 hours ago, johno49 said:

If anyone thinks that this bull is even readable let alone believable is off their bloody head, what a load of garbage, i can't even comment on this rubbish i'm gobsmacked

Not sure about that, It is what it is. It's a bunch of clever mathematicians predicting the curve for each county based upon the information so far. Seems reasonable but like all predictions/forecasts they are wrong, the question is always by how much. So if you take it as such it makes pretty interesting reading.

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, Salerno said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Am I missing something? I thought that is exactly what that graph is, the normal average death rate versus the coronavirus effect.  

[GAZZPA]

4 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:

There are a lot of comparisons that can be made with Spanish Flu and the C19 pandemic but Spanish Flu was much more deadly because mistakes were made that are being mirrored by many governments (noteably the UK and US) to include governments initially playing down the pandemic whilst they focused almost entirely on the last big push to end the war and telling the public it's not a big problem, or, as the name suggests, that it was a foreign disease that only affects 'others,'". In the US there was no federal response so this left cities and states to go off on their own and make decisions for themselves, creating inconsistancies in response and effectivenes (who and what does that remind you of?).

 

And the cure? Yes, you guessed it, self-isolation and social distancing. 'Cities that acted earliest and most forcefully -- like St. Louis, which imposed a near total lockdown within two days of its first Spanish flu case -- had much lower peak death rates than cities that hedged their bets -- like New Orleans, Boston and Philadelphia.

 

Covid 19 is not the worlds first rodeo. We've been through this before and we know what to do and so do the experts, so if we just stop arguing against the professionals (yes, i know there's a lot of conflicting advice but generally most experts agree on self-isolation, social distancing etc) stay the course and stop listening to people who recommend ingesting disinfectant for example, we should be good. 

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200420/four-lessons-from-the-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic#3

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6477554/

ok, not stupid enough to ingest disinfectant, but how about injecting a shedload before bedtime and spending the night under a sun bed?

[GAZZPA]

4 hours ago, Scott Tracy said:

This rubbish is why some governments stated some time ago that scientists really don't know squat.

This is why different governments have differing approaches to this particular virus, because scientists appear to have no clue either.

 

There was a statement made some time ago by a scientist, but I can't find it anymore, so: 

Disclaimer: This reported statement is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The statement is inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different scientists. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution with the odd pinch of salt.

 

So the statement as I recall it goes: Science is what we do until we know what we're doing.

Not a believer in science then? 

[Salerno]

4 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

Am I missing something? I thought that is exactly what that graph is, the normal average death rate versus the coronavirus effect.  

Lost me there?

 

The person I replied to seems to be on the "it's just flu" side of the fence - "they are entering C19 on death certs. I would like to see the normal amount of deaths vs now.  If its normally 20,000 and now 40,000 fair enough." The graphs are showing all deaths v historical average as he wanted, the article is basically saying the reported deaths that are covid-19 linked are under reported if based on historical average.

[GAZZPA]

4 hours ago, Brunolem said:

The virus will be long gone when a vaccine will show up, if ever...

Don't think so, however I will be happy to be proved wrong.

[ParkerN]

12 hours ago, webfact said:

Covid-19: Thailand's outbreak will be all over by June

Oh dear.

 

Well, fingers crossed eh?

 

 

[ParkerN]

11 hours ago, Why Me said:

9 cases in a country of 50 mil is noise. Deaths will always lag the illness. And sure there'll be stray cases popping up all over the world next few years. End date presumably means end of epidemic, not zero forever.

 

So relax, smile, whistle a tune.

There is so much which just cannot be true about the Thai numbers.

 

Still, Thais know best; I think I'll continue social distancing and wearing a mask whatever they decide.

 

 

[Stargeezr]

I just read a MSN news report that suggests the USA deaths may be 3 times the

offical 50 thousand plus that is posted. It seems that only recently they have started

counting some of the deaths in the senior care places, and none if you died at home.

  I wonder how many countries are like that and the numbers we read are 4 to 5 times

lower than the actual amount? I guess ignorance is bliss. The way the USA wants to open

back up to stop all the population from protesting, we may see a lot more deaths in the

next month or so. No way that I want to travel too far right now.

Geezer