Lockdown’s come at a heavy price, says economist

By The Nation

 

Supavud Saicheua

 

The nationwide lockdown will result in the Thai economy plunging by 10 percent, an economist warned, as a private hospital operator said the lower than expected number of Covid-19 patients has left many intensive care units empty. 

 

Supavud Saicheua, adviser to the Kiatnakin Financial Group and veteran economist, said on Tuesday (April 28) that lockdown measures to fight the virus have also resulted in an economic lockdown, and will result in a 10 percent slump. He warned that there is no way Thailand will escape unscathed from the slowdown in global economy, which is expected to lose by 30 to 40 percent in the second quarter.

 

If there is a second wave of infections in the second half, the global economy will contract further by 6 percent and the slowdown will continue into next year instead of the expected 5-percent growth towards recovery, he said. 

 

Even if there is no second wave of infections, the Thai economy will still contract by 10 percent this year, he said. 

 

“All growth engines have come to a stop as people are staying at home. The restrictions have come at a severely high price, which is why many countries have started easing some measures and partially reopening their economies, while at the same time trying to contain the contagion,” he said. 

 

He added that if Thailand’s lockdown lasts for two months, the damages will be colossal and economic woes will get out of hand. In order to avoid this, the Kingdom needs to reposition itself in terms of economic reforms and improved healthcare capacity, he suggested. 

 

He also added that the “new normal” will increase the cost of conducting business. For instance, tourists my opt for chartered flights to minimise their exposure to the virus, which means the number of tourists will drop significantly. 

 

Dr Boon Vansin, chairman of the Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG), meanwhile, said the government has been successful in containing the spread of Covid-19 as the number of new cases are on the decline, referring to new confirmed cases being down to single digits for two successive days – nine on Monday and seven on Tuesday. 

 

However, he said, Thailand cannot afford to be complacent and needs to focus on testing and contact-tracing for high-risk groups. He also said that most private hospitals are better prepared to fight the contagion than state-run hospitals, citing the fact that THG has been mobilising face masks and medical supplies since late January.

 

The group earmarked 270 beds for Covid-19 patients, but only 20 have been used so far, he said. The group had also earmarked 25 ICU rooms for the virus, but so far only three or four of them have been used. However, he said, though the number of Covid-19 patients has been far lower than expected, THG will earmark another 25 ICU units in case there is a second wave.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30386939

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-29

 

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44 minutes ago, webfact said:

The nationwide lockdown will result in the Thai economy plunging by 10 percent, an economist warned, as a private hospital operator said the lower than expected number of Covid-19 patients has left many intensive care units empty. 

jesus christ almighty - did he really just say that 

 

If ever there was evidence that health of patients comes 2nd that is it

 

WE like to keep our intensive care units full of foreigners who have either become ill or suffered from some accident while on holiday in Thailand - the longer we can keep them in there the more money we can gouge from them

 

If anyone ever finds me in an ICU in Thailand for more than a day - stop the meds turn off the power and if I waken up bring me a  (deleted) wheelchair and get me out of there ASAP

Another stupid article. Making people continue to suffer based on "ifs" and contingencies. We are far better able to deal with it now than 3 months ago. Is the government better able to deal with more crushing blows to their economy? More failed businesses? More mental health issues? More suicides?

We must thank the international WHOhan Health Organisation and the CCP for wrecking the global economy so China can buy up assets at bargain basement prices. 

it must have taken him several seconds to formulate that bleeding obvious statement

4 hours ago, webfact said:

as a private hospital operator said the lower than expected number of Covid-19 patients has left many intensive care units empty. 

Worldwide that is happening. Time to stop the scaremongering.

That is so upsetting that hospitals have been unable to extort money from patients for simple procedures and prescriptions.  Seeing the repo man hooking up SUVs in the hospital administrator parking lot will be absolutely tear jerking.

53 minutes ago, brokenbone said:

it must have taken him several seconds to formulate that bleeding obvious statement

But he is highly Qualified in stating the Bloody Obvious

2 hours ago, skorp13 said:

Another stupid article. Making people continue to suffer based on "ifs" and contingencies. We are far better able to deal with it now than 3 months ago. Is the government better able to deal with more crushing blows to their economy? More failed businesses? More mental health issues? More suicides?

Face.

 

In the enthusiastic rush to demonstrate 100% control, which led to a variety of power grabs at various levels within the regime, many restrictions were imposed, without thinking through the implications, consideration of the effects and without any plan or ability to mitigate the results. A very large proportion of the population of this country depend on, almost casual, working arrangements, weekly or even daily cash payment, at or near the derisory minimum wage. They have no job security, or financial safety net. No savings, or opportunity to save. The day their work stops, or they are forced to close their businesses, is the day their income stops. This can hardly have been an unknown to the regime, yet they seem to have utterly failed to consider it. Now the restrictions, lock-downs and various closures and bans are imposed, by central or provincial government, to abandon them would result in a massive loss of face. the best that can be hoped for is grudging easing of the restrictions over time, each heralded and justified by some real or imagined statistical "proof" that Thailand is winning the battle against the virus. Face, (and the fact that wielding such unaccountable power is, frankly, a dream come true for many in authority) means that we will be stuck with this inchoate mess for a long time to come. They are and will remain incapable, and one must suspect lack the resources, (or the will to divert the resources), of providing for those whose livelihoods they have so carelessly destroyed.

 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by JAG

Thank you Dr. Obvious.

41 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

But he is highly Qualified in stating the Bloody Obvious

He is an economist, his stock in trade is stating the bleeding obvious!

I've seen that look before. That's the face of a man who has shorted the market.

 

"Even if there is a second wave of infections. . . "

 

People should start asking awkward questions, such as:

 

Is the waning global "pandemic" really just another rather nasty and more widespread version of the flu?

 

Does a health crisis far less severe than many in recent history justify the arbitrary imposition of medical martial law, with a consequential destruction of national economies and global abrogation of human rights?

 

What could be the possible motive for such a disastrous set of policies?

 

And, with all this talk of a "new normal" why should we not insist on a return to the fastest possible return to the "old" normal?

 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by Krataiboy