Coronavirus spread accelerates again in Germany

By Douglas Busvine

 

FILE PHOTO: People enjoy sun on boats, on the Landwehrkanal, amid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Berlin, Germany, May 9, 2020. REUTERS / Christian Mang/File Photo

 

BERLIN (Reuters) - New coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could once again slip out of control.

 

The Robert Koch Institute for disease control said in a daily bulletin the number of people each sick person now infects - known as the reproduction rate, or R - had risen to 1.1. When it goes above 1, it means the number of infections is growing.

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel, bowing to pressure from leaders of Germany's 16 federal states to restart social life and revive the economy, announced on Wednesday measures that included more shop openings and a gradual return to school.

 

At the same time, she launched an "emergency brake" to allow for the reimposition of restrictions if infections pick up again.

 

Karl Lauterbach, a Social Democrat lawmaker and professor of epidemiology, warned that the new coronavirus could start spreading again quickly after seeing large crowds out and about on Saturday in his home city of Cologne.

 

"It has to be expected that the R rate will go over 1 and we will return to exponential growth," Lauterbach said in a tweet. "The loosening measures were far too poorly prepared."

 

The Robert Koch Institute said on Sunday the confirmed number of new coronavirus cases had increased by a daily 667 to 169,218, while the daily death toll had risen by 26 to 7,395.

 

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"It is too early to infer whether the number of new infections will continue to decrease as in the past weeks or increase again," the institute said in a separate daily bulletin issued on Saturday evening.

It cautioned that the R figure was subject to statistical uncertainty, adding: "The increase of the reproduction number R necessitates a close monitoring of the situation."

 

 

While nightclubs have been closed in Germany since mid-March due to coronavirus restrictions, hundreds of Germans got their party fix on Saturday night with the country's first drive-in rave.

 

Germany has the sixth-largest COVID-19 caseload in Europe but has managed to contain fatalities from the highly infectious respiratory disease thanks to widespread and early testing and a healthcare system that is well-run and well-funded.

 

The latest phase of its pandemic management has, say critics, placed too much burden on local authorities to detect and respond to new outbreaks. A threshold set at 50 cases per 100,000 people for reimposing distancing measures is also seen by some epidemiologists as too high.

 

This level has already been triggered in two districts in the states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig Holstein, where COVID-19 has broken out among workers at meat processing plants.

 

The plant in North Rhine-Westphalia was closed on Friday after more than 150 of its 1,200 workers tested positive. Many are migrants from eastern Europe hired by subcontractors and housed in shared quarters that are a potential infection hotbed.

 

(Reporting by Douglas Busvine; Editing by Gareth Jones)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-05-11

 

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Too early to tell until the end of the week, they relaxed the restrictions only about 4 days ago.

 

Maybe they get a big surge, maybe not - will be good data to work with going forward and many other countries can learn from the outcome.

23 minutes ago, webfact said:

This level has already been triggered in two districts in the states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig Holstein, where COVID-19 has broken out among workers at meat processing plants.

 

The plant in North Rhine-Westphalia was closed on Friday after more than 150 of its 1,200 workers tested positive. Many are migrants from eastern Europe hired by subcontractors and housed in shared quarters that are a potential infection hotbed

It's one thing to find a good balanced level for the broad population to go back to work and pick up their life's again ...

 

.... it's another one to compare, or match that level to cheap labor workers who are living together in a box, with no chance to practice any protection habits. (and all working at the same place, too)

 

It's similar to the discussion about the living conditions of construction workers, or ppl living in camps etc. 

 

I think this should be seen completely separated. You can't apply or match the same levels for the broad population to match ppl sharing quarters.

How will that work?

 

Then the broader population will never be able to go out again, how ever great they have stayed at home with their family/partner only.

 

1 or 2 days after re-opening is too early to say anything ... let's watch this space. Hope it goes ok, it's a critical time now, countries have to 

re-open, and every country who's about to re-open is watching.

 

Good, do something about the living conditions of cheap labor, don't just exploit them.

Someone made a lot of money with them ... let them improve the living conditions.

 

 

The cure has become worse than the disease. Time for life to go on. Stay inside if you think you're at risk.

34 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Too early to tell until the end of the week, they relaxed the restrictions only about 4 days ago.

 

Maybe they get a big surge, maybe not - will be good data to work with going forward and many other countries can learn from the outcome.

Not only good data ... also good lessons how to apply the metrics ... and don't throw everything into one big pot.

 

The good thing about this, as far as I follow it. They isolate the area of cases ... and not the complete country for all.

 

 

10 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

The cure has become worse than the disease. Time for life to go on. Stay inside if you think you're at risk.

You're missing the point about 200 workers living in poor conditions, sharing small rooms, getting exploited with very low salaries.

 

Of course it's time to move on ... but you can't just say ... stay inside if you think you are at risk. Not everyone can do this.

 

So the metrics should not be mixed up IMO ... which this article above does by stating:

 

"....This level has already been triggered in two districts ..." Followed by the reason of cheap labor living and working in poor conditions.

 

 

Edited May 10, 20206 yr by RedPill

2 hours ago, RedPill said:

You're missing the point about 200 workers living in poor conditions, sharing small rooms, getting exploited with very low salaries.

 

Of course it's time to move on ... but you can't just say ... stay inside if you think you are at risk. Not everyone can do this.

 

So the metrics should not be mixed up IMO ... which this article above does by stating:

 

"....This level has already been triggered in two districts ..." Followed by the reason of cheap labor living and working in poor conditions.

 

 

How is Alex missing the point ? and where did these specific 200 workers come from ? In fact there are hundreds of thousands of workers living in cramped conditions around the world, probably millions, always have been and always will be, and this has no bearing on Alex,s correct conclusion that the cure is worse than the disease. Maybe I am missing the point here, but I see no value in attempting to belittle someone,s contribution to a discussion without cause or proof.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

BERLIN (Reuters) - New coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could once again slip out of control.

It takes 14 days for the disease to manifest itself.  It the easing had anything to do with increasing the coronavirus it would not be known so early.  The bounce was probably due to the lock down. 

 

People - just live free and let nature take its course.

If COVID-19 knocks off another chunk of the minions, so be it.

The smart ones will practice "social distancing", good hygiene, and quiet healthy living while the minions exterminate themselves. Everyone benefits. 

That has been the plan of the Global Commission (NWO) from the start. Like Dr. Kissinger says:

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by RickTik

55 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

It takes 14 days for the disease to manifest itself.  It the easing had anything to do with increasing the coronavirus it would not be known so early.  The bounce was probably due to the lock down. 

 

That is not true. It takes two or three weeks from infection to death. In the case of infection, it is a matter of a day or two.

The cure has become worse than the disease. Time for life to go on. Stay inside if you think you're at risk.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, ukrules said:

Too early to tell until the end of the week, they relaxed the restrictions only about 4 days ago.

 

Maybe they get a big surge, maybe not - will be good data to work with going forward and many other countries can learn from the outcome.

Quite frankly, I think we are going to see a surge of new cases all over the place, not only in Germany but in most other countries that have opened up too early and/or without strict adherence to social distancing. This is simply unavoidable. People have to realize that this is not a battle between a surging economy against a lock up, this is simply the only way to keep the world, including a functioning, possibly contracting, economy, functioning.

It's not unexpected. 

Unfortunately the federal states did not follow Merkel's advice. 

Some lockdowns are ordered already again 

????

We could brand everyone that goes to Chatuchak markets & see how that pans out in about 12 days

3 hours ago, Thomas J said:

It takes 14 days for the disease to manifest itself.  It the easing had anything to do with increasing the coronavirus it would not be known so early.  The bounce was probably due to the lock down. 

 

Up to 24 days, 2 important words missing.

Pretty much thanks to a few ten thousand demonstrators on the weekend, who were "fighting" against their "freedoms" being taken away!

You just can't cure stupid!

33 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

It's not unexpected. 

Unfortunately the federal states did not follow Merkel's advice. 

Some lockdowns are ordered already again 

????

Merkel was always someone to wait and do nothing. This happened also with COVID19 until there was no other way that to do something. Then she looked at the pols and found the leader with the strongest restrictions is loved mostly. So she ordered a nearly toal lock-down. Now that people are impatient and want their freedom she opens almost everything. The CORVID19 situation at total lock-down and opening is almost the same. There is no wise management in this crisis keeping all aspects in mind and searching for balanced ways. Additionally there was a poor performance in organizing needed protection products. How can you ask people to ware facemask if there are not any? Now I am watching what happens. According to her the provinces with more than 50 cases per 100,000 must go back to strong restrictions, neighbour provinces not. That is going to be interesting.

3 hours ago, Proboscis said:

That is not true. It takes two or three weeks from infection to death. In the case of infection, it is a matter of a day or two.

It is your summary that is the false one. 

5 hours ago, phantomfiddler said:

How is Alex missing the point ? and where did these specific 200 workers come from ? In fact there are hundreds of thousands of workers living in cramped conditions around the world, probably millions, always have been and always will be, and this has no bearing on Alex,s correct conclusion that the cure is worse than the disease. Maybe I am missing the point here, but I see no value in attempting to belittle someone,s contribution to a discussion without cause or proof.

Attempting to belittle someone? Never been the intention. Maybe Alex can speak for himself if he really felt like this. 

 

If you go back and read my reply ... I was 'not' talking about the 'correct conclusion' that the cure is worse than the disease. Not at all.

 

I was replying to his statement: "Stay inside if you think you're at risk." Which not everybody just can. There are millions who don't get any social benefits and have their jobs/businesses closed (i.e. Thailand ... getting what? 5k? Just stay at home if you're at risk?)

 

I'm very aware that there are millions of cramped conditions around the world.

 

Just pointing out that the article is talking about 50 cases per 100k population as the metric to monitor the 

progress, to either open up more or close again.

 

I'm following all the news around this ... including discussions whether this number should be 35 or 50 or any other number.

 

They opened up just 3 days ago ... and only 1 state first, others follow step by step, gradually.

 

That meat factory story is also since 3+ days in the news ... I just pointed out to not mix this up with the broader population getting ready going out again and picking up their 'normal life's'.

 

Life has to go on ... also that I agreed with Alex ... just not the statement ... stay at home if you feel at risk. Because that's just not possible for everyone.

 

 

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by RedPill

In Germany and many other countries:

 

6 hours ago, phantomfiddler said:

and where did these specific 200 workers come from ?

From Poland ... cheap exploited labor. Factories making lots of money and put them into s#$t place to live with daily

picks up to and from the factory.

 

This factory number with infections, had nothing to do with the re-opening of restrictions 3 days ago.

 

They happened to be reported in exact parallel, but the Reuters news article makes it read as it's an outcome of the re-opening.

 

That factory was infected before re-opening of restrictions already. Reported at the exact same day when the first people started to enjoy their new freedom again. But nothing to do with re-opening of restrictions.

 

I say good they single this out, close the factory and 'only' keep the restrictions for this area ... and not for the complete country.

 

i.e. no virus spread in Thailand. A few cases in Yala ... but all other people are still restricted to travel across a province in Chiang Mai

 

 

 

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by RedPill

6 hours ago, phantomfiddler said:

Maybe I am missing the point here, but I see no value in attempting to belittle someone,s contribution to a discussion without cause or proof

And as last thing to your comment. I see Alex posting all sorts of typical slogans in the US/Trump threads. I think he's a big boy.

 

Germany was doing very well so far handling this outbreak. I have read enough stuff and opinions, political banter, even conspiracy theories.

 

With this one, I can follow by myself and see what is exactly happening, what's news reporting or what are facts. At least a little bit, for once.

 

"just stay at home if you feel you are at risk" ... is just another typical statement which I will filter out, following the progress of re-opening of restrictions. Enough of this stuff.

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by RedPill

6 hours ago, Thomas J said:

It takes 14 days for the disease to manifest itself.  It the easing had anything to do with increasing the coronavirus it would not be known so early.  The bounce was probably due to the lock down. 

 

 

Or, as was/is the case in Singapore, the state/media just wasn't previously paying much attention to the conditions/situation and COVID "numbers" of dormitory dwelling migrant workers.

 

As the overall situation has stabilised (and begun to look positive) their circumstances have now "foregrounded".

 

Only now are they "News".

 

 

 

 

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by Enoon

2 hours ago, hhinhh said:

Merkel was always someone to wait and do nothing. This happened also with COVID19 until there was no other way that to do something. Then she looked at the pols and found the leader with the strongest restrictions is loved mostly. So she ordered a nearly toal lock-down. Now that people are impatient and want their freedom she opens almost everything. The CORVID19 situation at total lock-down and opening is almost the same. There is no wise management in this crisis keeping all aspects in mind and searching for balanced ways. Additionally there was a poor performance in organizing needed protection products. How can you ask people to ware facemask if there are not any? Now I am watching what happens. According to her the provinces with more than 50 cases per 100,000 must go back to strong restrictions, neighbour provinces not. That is going to be interesting.

People fighting for their "freedom" are called "Covidiots".

Good description, isn't it? 

7 hours ago, Thomas J said:

It takes 14 days for the disease to manifest itself.  It the easing had anything to do with increasing the coronavirus it would not be known so early.  The bounce was probably due to the lock down. 

 

Not quite, it's in the between 1 and 3 days to 14 days range.

 

The medium time is about 5 days based on what I read. 14 days is kind of an extreme case and far from normal.

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by ukrules

Only goes to show it's far to early to judge which countries have done better or worse in handling this totally unnecessary media-led world panic.

3 hours ago, CNXexpat said:

In Germany and many other countries:

 

I have a better scaremonging one for you:

 

 

Very sad.  I bet the US has the same issue.

Waste of time then. Let's just get it over with and protect the most vulnerable. I'll take my chances, at 65. Christ, I've had enough experience to feed a dozen lifetimes. Can think of better ways to die though. Will they pay for my funeral? 

Headline news in Zeit: A high ranking civil servant in the German Interior Ministry, responsible for crisis management, including water supply, internet and electricity, has sent a report to all regional governments, the office of the Chancellor and the Coronavirus crisis management office, in which he explains how the coronavirus danger has been greatly overestimated, that the measures taken involve much more collateral damage than the virus would cause. He estimates thousands have died due to not getting operations in hospitals. He says the government has failed.

 

His head of office rejected his paper, so did the office of Horst Seehofer and for his troubles he is being accused as conspiracy theorist.

 

Quite extraordinary that a well paid civil servant would risk his pension to call out the errors in Covid19 management.

 

In Germany all opponents of the extreme Covid19 measures are tarred with the 'extremist' label, for daring to criticise the government.

 

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2020-05/corona-pandemie-bekaempfung-massnahmen-innenministerium-verschwoerungstheorien-regierungsrat