18 hours ago, Sheryl said:

That part is almost certainly not true. 

 

We now know from studies in Western countries, as well as in China, that the virus was present and circulating in the population well before anyone noticed. Based on known travel patterns between Wuhan and Thailand  -- and what we now know was the actual start of the infection in Wuhan i.e.November, there is virtually  no way it could not have been well established in at least the areas receiving  Chinese travellers by early to mid December. I frankly think it may already have been past its peak when the Thai measures began.  The same applies to Cambodia. In fact I think I may have had COVID in Phnom Penh in January.

 

For reasons not known for sure, there have been very few serious cases and deaths from COVID in mainland SE Asia and it is unlikely this is due to few infections.

 

 The extent to which this is so will become more apparent if and when there are statstically representative population based studies of antibody levels. 

 

Many possible factors:

Heat and humidity may have slowed the rate of spread (fewer cases at any one time= easy not to motice anything was happening)

Ditto comparatively low population density outside of Banngok

Younger population age structure

Cross immunity from the SARs outbreak

And quite possibly other factors not yet identified

 

This is not to belittle the efforts made, but at least the travel bans were later than they should have been. Other countries which took measures at around the same time were hit quite hard. 

 

Public health measures are important but in any pandemic there are also elements of good and bad luck

 

 

 

 

 

Another discussion why it sometimes took so long

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/health/coronavirus-spread-united-states.html

2 hours ago, uhuh said:

Entering Paragon  Feb 18, the other entrances were closed,  complete with temperature scanner,  disinfectant, masks.

That was standard in Bangkok at that time. 

Hey, I'm not arguing with you, I'm just reporting what I saw. Remember that I was visting a lot of places where travellers interact and therefore have a good chance of speading any disease.  The measures that the government claimed to have taken at the airports for example were simply not true - as many other people reported at the time.

2 hours ago, uhuh said:

Cross immunity from the SARs outbreak

That's an interesting point - I hope the scientists are looking at that.

2 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Hey, I'm not arguing with you, I'm just reporting what I saw. Remember that I was visting a lot of places where travellers interact and therefore have a good chance of speading any disease.  The measures that the government claimed to have taken at the airports for example were simply not true - as many other people reported at the time.

What may have been then, is not now.....requirements are now in place for much of everywhere.  Now whether rules are followed and adhered to is a different story.

37 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

That's an interesting point - I hope the scientists are looking at that.

They are. Centivax is now testing antibodies derived from the SARS v1.0 survivors. So far with good success:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200518005767/en/Centivax-Antibodies-Neutralize-Pandemic-Coronavirus-Independently-Confirmed

 

I crowdfunded a tiny bit of those tests.

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

What may have been then, is not now.....requirements are now in place for much of everywhere.  Now whether rules are followed and adhered to is a different story.

I was in conversation with another poster about March - not now.

10 hours ago, DrTuner said:

They are. Centivax is now testing antibodies derived from the SARS v1.0 survivors. So far with good success:

That looks promising.

On 5/26/2020 at 9:41 AM, hotandsticky said:

This is exactly why Thailand is right to have the strict quarantine requirements.

 

 

This is why Thailand can control new outbreaks.

 

 

UK (and others) take note.

They've been in those countries for months. What are the odds they only started showing symptoms the moment they could make it back to Thailand? Think