Put safety before money - academic warns about opening country too quickly to "infected" foreigners

[Mikeasq60]

7 hours ago, totally thaied up said:

If they are getting a few cases each plane load they are bringing returning Thai Nationals back in, I would hate to see if they opened up borders to the US, UK etc, etc as the virus certainly is not under control in many places yet. Cases will slip through the cracks for certain and we will be back at step one all over again. I agree, slowly you need to do it.

Their wouldnt be a problem at all, Thailand has experienced worse in its existence. Put your big boy and girl pants on will you please!

[CM Dad]

All of the infected coming in for the past month have been Thais.

[paulikens]

1 minute ago, GAZZPA said:

what!!! Thailand is in the yop 10 tourist destinations in the world... around 15% to 20% of the countries entire GDP is tourism,,, check you facts fella..

so that means 75-80% isn't.    so i would say that isn't extreme reliant at all. its a important factor in their GDP but not the be all and end all. as foreigners we overemphasis how important we are to the thai economy.

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, herwin1234 said:

"this is Thailand, folks." No loudmouth armed citizen protesting that wearing mask and stay at home orders are fascist, no leaders politisizing the crisis, no leaders sarcastically promoting bleach as a cure, only stability and untity and a profesional aproach to handle the crisis...Yeah, this is Thailand alright.

 

Yes, there will be a second wave, here, and everywhere, nobody denies that. And after the second wave another wave.

The big question is will it be contained or not.  

We cannot eredicate this, or any virus, nobody claims this. The question is we will control the virus, or will it control us.

we cannot control the virus.. the question is do we lock down for much longer or do we get the economies moving again and take our chances? Until we get an effective vaccine they are the only 2 things to consider.. for me this lockdown cannot go on much longer, we all have to eat, we all need to educate our children, we all need to work... so the only real option is to get the economy moving again but practice some level of social distancing and take our chances,,, it seems most countries are going down this road rather then simply waiting for a vaccine..

[KMartinHandyman]

6 hours ago, Canuck1966 said:

They are still talking like Chinese Flu is a death sentence

99.99% of the world's population haven't died from it 

There’s still a lot of money to be made off of this by the global virus scaremongers. Why would they let your little 99% fact get in the way? 

[LukKrueng]

6 hours ago, ezzra said:

I wonder if foreigners money also "infected"? without tourism money this country will go back to be what it used to be 100 years ago, poor and backward country, it is a shame that in thees days and age we still have to listen to this kind of racist garbage...

Isn't it true just the same to most if not all countries in the world? Without outside trading money? 

[GAZZPA]

2 minutes ago, paulikens said:

so that means 75-80% isn't.    so i would say that isn't extreme reliant at all. its a important factor in their GDP but not the be all and end all. as foreigners we overemphasis how important we are to the thai economy.

You really don't have any grasp at all of economics.. 1 quarterley contraction of 1% would be  a very serious economic crisis,,,,, 20% is beyond catastrophic. And what makes you think other sectors of the economy are not affected by the collapse of tourism? So the disposable income created in the tourist trade that allows people to buy say,,, mobile phones... what do you think will happen to those markets? Get it? The economy is 1 complete harmonious thing,, the tourist industry is not in a bubble,, if it collapses everybody feels it..

[mrfill]

7 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

It seems you don't really have any grasp of how a virus spreads and behaves and how different countries have different challenges. Iceland, Norway and Finland are countries with very small populations and minimal congestion at the best of times. I spent quite some time in Oslo with work and even during "rush hour" it was a very spread out city centre. In contrast London in the UK is jam packed almost every where. The tube trains every single day are (at busy hours and beyond) absolutely rammed with millions of people. Also, people in different countries behave differently,, for example people in the UK are happy to travel to work for an hour each day, sometimes more because the cost difference of living in a nice house in the suburbs. However this is not the same in other countries,,, so people travel more each day and therefore spreading the virus very very quickly...

 

There are almost countless things to consider but from the scientific data I have read it is more prevalant in cooler climates, adding the congestion it would explain why the virus has spread so terribly in major western cities and countries.

Just a couple of questions then.

First, why does Sweden - a country very similar in location and city density to Norway and Finland - have considerably worse figures?

Secondly, Japan's cities and its public transport is famous for its crowds - it even has people to cram people into trains and it also has a climate similar to Northern Europe. Why didn't the virus spread like wildfire there?

I suspect that there are other factors, perhaps not yet under consideration, that lead to these anomalies. Weather and density are almost certainly contributory but the realities of Japan's very low rate suggest that they are not the whole story.

[GAZZPA]

6 minutes ago, KMartinHandyman said:

There’s still a lot of money to be made off of this by the global virus scaremongers. Why would they let your little 99% fact get in the way? 

1% of the population is 75 million people? That means more the entire population of Thailand would be dead.. It is  all very well playing down the impact by saying things like 99% will be ok it is small %age of an enormous number is an enormous amount of people.. 

[RichardColeman]

I kinda hope that there is a sudden second surge in Thailand, before they open the borders and airports, just so they can point the finger at their xenophobic selves rather than at Johnny Foreigner

[Salerno]

1 hour ago, newnative said:

The new cases are all Thais, you dingbat. 

The new cases are all imported, you dingbat. 

[robbioff]

7 hours ago, ezzra said:

I wonder if foreigners money also "infected"? without tourism money this country will go back to be what it used to be 100 years ago, poor and backward country, it is a shame that in thees days and age we still have to listen to this kind of racist garbage...

And listen to certain foreigners agreeing with it!!! 

[ThorsHammer]

6 hours ago, eeworldwide said:

It only takes ONE case to slip in between the cracks and we go back to square one. This is Thailand folks. Im willing to lay my money on the line in saying that we'll see a 2nd wave and this another lockdown before christmas.

2nd wave. With these numbers in Thailand, we haven't had the 1st wave. What are you talking about?

[Patts]

52 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Those death rates are only for tested positive, once you include the one's not tested with mild symptoms it drops to around 0.2 to 0.5. We will only know the true mortality rate if everyone is tested for antibodies.

You can say that but the UK has one of the highest tested rates per million people in the world and yet we have the highest mortality rate so what you said doesn't ring true

[spidermike007]

Now that it is under control they are going to have to be super careful when it comes to international tourism. Especially from super Covid nations (highest number of infections) like the US, Brazil, Russia, Italy, Spain, Germany and the UK. My guess is nobody is coming in from any of those nations without a covid free letter (since you cannot get one in the US, may be a year or longer until another American is admitted into the Thailand) and possibly health insurance with a pandemic exception. Right now, the US is the most radioactive nation on earth, and it will be very difficult for Americans to travel just about anywhere overseas, for the next year or so. They will be treated as Zombies.

 

Perhaps a smart nation may step up as a "covid free letter nation", offering tests, and letters at a reasonable price. I would travel there to get one, because as an American, I may not be able to leave Thailand for the next year, and be able to get back in!

 

Much care needs to be taken. Thailand cannot afford another economic shutdown. It could throw the place into a years long economic depression. But, barring the issue related to incoming international tourists, everything should be re-opened immediately. Everything. All shops, all bars, every enterprise in the nation. This thing is under control, and the risk now, is not being able to ramp up the economy again, in any reasonable period of time, and having millions of people out of work, for extended periods of time. Let the people get back to work. The threat is over. The army needs to end their power trip, and consider the well being of the economy and the people. June 1st. Open up every business. At least the ones who have not been crippled, and are able to re-open. Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of businesses may never be able to re-open, after this insane experiment in economic shutdown is over. It is an experiment for the rich and for government workers on a full salary!

Edited May 29, 2020 by spidermike007

[Paiman]

This is the same guy who said 2 days ago, that swimming in pools might be dangerous and the coronavirus is indeed a virus.

He is just out for social media attention on his facebook account and hopefully secure himself a position as an expert.

[tribalfusion001]

35 minutes ago, paulikens said:

no more reliant on tourism than most countries

About 21.6% on GDP for Thailand tourism in 2018.

[GAZZPA]

5 minutes ago, mrfill said:

Just a couple of questions then.

First, why does Sweden - a country very similar in location and city density to Norway and Finland - have considerably worse figures?

Secondly, Japan's cities and its public transport is famous for its crowds - it even has people to cram people into trains and it also has a climate similar to Northern Europe. Why didn't the virus spread like wildfire there?

I suspect that there are other factors, perhaps not yet under consideration, that lead to these anomalies. Weather and density are almost certainly contributory but the realities of Japan's very low rate suggest that they are not the whole story.

I am confused by your message. So you agree weather is a  contributor. It seems you are agreeing with me that there are countless factors to consider in each case and you cannot make simple judgements and "rule stuff out"? By the way I have been to Stockholm as well and it is much busier the Oslo, indeed Sweden is the most densley populated country in Scandanavia. Sweden also has a higher GDP then the other countries you mention. Also Sweden is I think the only country that has not exercised a lockdown,, so why is their infection rate lower then Italy that has been on full lockdown? They took a different route that makes its infection rate worse then some but better then others. Surely using your logic Sweden should have the worst infection rate and death rates in the world? I am not really sure I understand your post and what point you are making... anyway, The weather is a major factor (along with others) and if you are lucky enough to be somewhere hot and humid then good for you.

 

[GAZZPA]

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Now that it is under control they are going to have to be super careful when it comes to international tourism. Especially from super Covid nations (highest number of infections) like the US, Brazil, Russia, Italy, Spain, Germany and the UK. My guess is nobody is coming in from any of those nations without a covid free letter (since you cannot get one in the US, may be a year or longer until another American is admitted into the Thailand) and possibly health insurance with a pandemic exception. Right now, the US is the most radioactive nation on earth, and it will be very difficult for Americans to travel just about anywhere overseas, for the next year or so. They will be treated as Zombies. 

 

Much care needs to be taken. Thailand cannot afford another economic shutdown. It could throw the place into a years long economic depression. But, barring the issue related to incoming international tourists, everything should be re-opened immediately. Everything. All shops, all bars, every enterprise in the nation. This thing is under control, and the risk now, is not being able to ramp up the economy again, in any reasonable period of time, and having millions of people out of work, for extended periods of time. Let the people get back to work. The threat is over. The army needs to end their power trip, and consider the well being of the economy and the people. June 1st. Open up every business. At least the ones who have not been crippled, and are able to re-open. Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of businesses may never be able to re-open, after this insane experiment in economic shutdown is over. It is an experiment for the rich and for government workers on a full salary!

All true. The damage from this lockdown for any longer will by far outstrip the damage from this virus. Eventually the economic damage will almost wipe the slate clean (economically) with as you say hundreds of thousands of businesses shut forever. That will take many years to recover from for sure.. Thailand must be approaching that problem.. Time to take a chance, try and exercise some caution in practice but the most important thing is get everyone back to work now..

[Abmong]

Well, the academic fails to link money to food and rooves over peoples heads. Where did he get his doctorate, Assumption University? Is he going to pay for all the food and rent of all those out of work? I thought not. Absolutely useless, more degrees than sense. The country must open, but take appropriate protective measures and ban high risk countries for the time being.

[Blue Water Sailor]

Veitnam is opening up its evisa to 80 countries, Thailand is done. This is all BS and anybody thats studied this knows it. They haven't even isolated this thing so how are they going to test for something that doesn't exist. Don't you see whats going on here. They are blaming every death no matter what it is on this BS Virus

[tribalfusion001]

9 minutes ago, Patts said:

You can say that but the UK has one of the highest tested rates per million people in the world and yet we have the highest mortality rate so what you said doesn't ring true

Neill Ferguson was stating a 0.9% mortality rate in the UK before he resigned and that looks likely to be too high.

[Patts]

37 minutes ago, paulikens said:

so that means 75-80% isn't.    so i would say that isn't extreme reliant at all. its a important factor in their GDP but not the be all and end all. as foreigners we overemphasis how important we are to the thai economy.

What, you can't be serious. Most popular countries have 10 to 12% of GDP from Tourism and even that's hugely important to those countries so for Thailand to lose 20%+ in a country where so many more jobs are related to tourism is massive. Think about all the businesses that are linked to tourism in Thailand that most other countries don't have in such high demand.

[dastakantattaka]

3 hours ago, Anton9 said:

This is false, the actual death rate is less than 1%, basically zero for young and healthy individuals.

The 6% is calculated on confirmed cases which are a huge underestimation of total infections.

* don't forget that among the cases that's not and won't be confirmed, there're deaths too.

* besides, how can you calculate the death rate of the total cases confirmed provided that most of the cases are still active, more than 50% and therefore the outcome of those isn't known

[JCP108]

12 minutes ago, Blue Water Sailor said:

Veitnam is opening up its evisa to 80 countries, Thailand is done. This is all BS and anybody thats studied this knows it. They haven't even isolated this thing so how are they going to test for something that doesn't exist. Don't you see whats going on here. They are blaming every death no matter what it is on this BS Virus

Right. I absolutely must travel back to the U.S. as soon as I am able to do so to deal with some family stuff. If things are the same here at the end of that trip, I will not get back in as I'm here on a retirement extension (though could get a marriage extension), have no Thai job, no work permit, and (while I do have adequate health insurance) I don't expect at all I'll be able to cajole an American M.D. to write a bogus health certificate upon my return. So, may have to relocate to Vietnam if I can get the Thai wife to go along with that. May have to do that even if she doesn't. 

[GAZZPA]

6 minutes ago, Patts said:

What, you can't be serious. Most popular countries have 10 to 12% of GDP from Tourism and even that's hugely important to those countries so for Thailand to lose 20%+ in a country where so many more jobs are related to tourism is massive. Think about all the businesses that are linked to tourism in Thailand that most other countries don't have in such high demand.

He is playing down 20% loss of GDP as not "extreme" because that means 80% is ok!  ???? Absolutely zero understanding of what that will mean to the economy so don't waste your breath...

[Don Mega]

1 hour ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Those death rates are only for tested positive, once you include the one's not tested with mild symptoms it drops to around 0.2 to 0.5. We will only know the true mortality rate if everyone is tested for antibodies.

How can one consider people not tested into an official figure ?

[Anton9]

6 minutes ago, dastakantattaka said:

* don't forget that among the cases that's not and won't be confirmed, there're deaths too.

* besides, how can you calculate the death rate of the total cases confirmed provided that most of the cases are still active, more than 50% and therefore the outcome of those isn't known

More than half the deaths in Europe are in cares homes and average age of deaths is around 80 years old(which is the average age of deaths anyway).

Why people who are at low to no risk should live their life in fear?

Edited May 29, 2020 by Anton9

[ifmu]

No he is right. We cant bring chinese in yet..  Wait till theirs is cleared up

[GAZZPA]

3 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

How can one consider people not tested into an official figure ?

You cannot.. The death rate is a moving figure,, the more you test the lower it goes. Right now we don't know what the correct rate is, but indications are 1%. I guess we will all know in good time,, think we should thank our lucky stars it is that low and that the virus was not ebola...