State of economy worse than initially estimated: BOT

[Trillian]

If BOT wants to increase inflation in Thailand it has a number of choices,increasing the minimum wages by a substantial amount would work and opening up the country to foriegn competition would also work.

[Brunolem]

10 minutes ago, Trillian said:

As a consequence of those things there's nothing in your simple solution that would actually result in a depreciated currency, only in greater lending by banks to the general population.

 

 

Only up to a certain extent.

 

If the central bank creates too much money that reaches the general population, demand increases, then prices increase, then inflation builds up.

 

If this goes too far, people lose faith in their currency and rush to exchange it against foreign currencies, perceived as safer.

 

Meanwhile, foreign exporters don't accept to be paid with this volatile currency anymore.

 

From there the depreciation starts, and it generally ends badly.

 

This kind of monetary policy is only implemented by desperate countries, such as Zimbabwe or Venezuela.

[DrTuner]

6 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Only up to a certain extent.

 

If the central bank creates too much money that reaches the general population, demand increases, then prices increase, then inflation builds up.

 

If this goes too far, people lose faith in their currency and rush to exchange it against foreign currencies, perceived as safer.

 

Meanwhile, foreign exporters don't accept to be paid with this volatile currency anymore.

 

From there the depreciation starts, and it generally ends badly.

 

This kind of monetary policy is only implemented by desperate countries, such as Zimbabwe or Venezuela.

In the future, paying for your somtam in cash...

 

[Trillian]

10 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Only up to a certain extent.

 

If the central bank creates too much money that reaches the general population, demand increases, then prices increase, then inflation builds up.

 

If this goes too far, people lose faith in their currency and rush to exchange it against foreign currencies, perceived as safer.

 

Meanwhile, foreign exporters don't accept to be paid with this volatile currency anymore.

 

From there the depreciation starts, and it generally ends badly.

 

This kind of monetary policy is only implemented by desperate countries, such as Zimbabwe or Venezuela.

Yes of course. But the scenario that was presented above was, "give it all the banks and corporations to prop up their businesses". That process doesn't get the money into the hands of the people who need to spend it, to increase demand, to increase inflation...how do you do that?

 

Extending credit to the banks is one thing, having the banks find qualified borrowers when the average monthly wage here is so low, is something else entirely.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Trillian

[dinsdale]

Basically the Thai baht is strengthening because the economy is shot, the economy relies on tourism and there is no tourism, there's massive unemployment, exports are down, negative GDP and I think there's a lot more. How can this be a safe haven? How can the baht remain strong? Never did quite understand economics. Maybe someone can help me.

[Number 6]

23 minutes ago, Trillian said:

If BOT wants to increase inflation in Thailand it has a number of choices,increasing the minimum wages by a substantial amount would work and opening up the country to foriegn competition would also work.

I'm certain both of these are too priorities for the government and Thai oligarchs. Genius.

[Trillian]

9 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Basically the Thai baht is strengthening because the economy is shot, the economy relies on tourism and there is no tourism, there's massive unemployment, exports are down, negative GDP and I think there's a lot more. How can this be a safe haven? How can the baht remain strong? Never did quite understand economics. Maybe someone can help me.

Not really! The economy doesn't rely on tourism, tourism is only 12% of GDP. The country does rely on exports which is 60% of GDP.

 

As things stand today last months export figures were pretty good, surprisingly so, tourism numbers were however very low. But the underlying health of the Thai economy is pretty strong, low government borrowings (42% of GDP), high foreign currency reserves (USD 220 bill.) and low social care overheads. And this is a comparative issue, the Thai economy may not look great currently but the fundamentals mentioned previously are very strong and by comparison to some other larger western economies who are borrowing trillions of dollars, Thailand is in great shape. 

[whiteman]

tell that to the 1000s that are staving over here

Edited June 4, 2020 by whiteman

[dinsdale]

Just now, Trillian said:

Not really! The economy doesn't rely on tourism, tourism is only 12% of GDP. The country does rely on exports which is 60% of GDP.

 

As things stand today last months export figures were pretty good, surprisingly so, tourism numbers were however very low. But the underlying health of the Thai economy is pretty strong, low government borrowings (42% of GDP), high foreign currency reserves (USD 220 bill.) and low social care overheads. And this is a comparative issue, the Thai economy may not look great currently but the fundamentals mentioned previously are very strong and by comparison to some other larger western economies who are borrowing trillions of dollars, Thailand is in great shape. 

I want a second opinion. Tourism is only 12% of GDP. Seems a lot. Military spending in USA as a percentage of GDP is around 3% and that's a lot. 12% loss you're saying isn't much.

[Airalee]

8 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I want a second opinion. Tourism is only 12% of GDP. Seems a lot. Military spending in USA as a percentage of GDP is around 3% and that's a lot. 12% loss you're saying isn't much.

A nuclear bomb could wipe out Thailand and Trillian (fka Saengd) would still bloviate about the current account balance and tell us how great everything is.

 

12% is a lot.  And when that 12% gets spent onwards (velocity of money), that supports a lot of domestic consumption (another portion of gdp).  Then, when incomes are lower, people can’t service their debt (or take on more) and it then starts to feed on itself becoming a deflationary spiral.

 

[Trillian]

20 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I want a second opinion. Tourism is only 12% of GDP. Seems a lot. Military spending in USA as a percentage of GDP is around 3% and that's a lot. 12% loss you're saying isn't much.

Tourism is an export and is 20% of all exports, tourism is 12% of GDP overall.

 

Not all of the 12% has been lost, remember, that's an annual figure. January saw about normal numbers, February and March saw a decrease, April saw zero. It might be that later in the year there is an upturn in the numbers, overall the decline in GDP for the year is estimated to be about 5.5%.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

[Trillian]

6 minutes ago, Airalee said:

A nuclear bomb could wipe out Thailand and Trillian (fka Saengd) would still bloviate about the current account balance and tell us how great everything is.

 

12% is a lot.  And when that 12% gets spent onwards (velocity of money), that supports a lot of domestic consumption (another portion of gdp).  Then, when incomes are lower, people can’t service their debt (or take on more) and it then starts to feed on itself becoming a deflationary spiral.

 

I find your posts increasingly offensive, threatening and personally motivated rather than anything related to the subject matter. I have asked you to stop following me around and making your inane remarks, please find somebody else to try and intimidate. Thank you.

[dinsdale]

Just now, Trillian said:

Tourism is an export and is 20% of all exports, tourism is 12% of GDP overall.

 

Not all of the 12% has been lost, remember, that's an annual figure. January saw about normal numbers, February and March saw a decrease, April saw zero. It might be that later in the year there is an upturn in the numbers, overall the decline in GDP for the year is estimated to be about 5.5%.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

Pity January wasn't zero tourism and that CCP suck up of a PM closed the borders. Then we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[uli65]

8 minutes ago, Airalee said:

A nuclear bomb could wipe out Thailand and Trillian (fka Saengd) would still bloviate about the current account balance and tell us how great everything is.

 

12% is a lot.  And when that 12% gets spent onwards (velocity of money), that supports a lot of domestic consumption (another portion of gdp).  Then, when incomes are lower, people can’t service their debt (or take on more) and it then starts to feed on itself becoming a deflationary spiral.

 

I guess you don't enjoy the wisdom of this person?! 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

I want a second opinion. Tourism is only 12% of GDP. Seems a lot. Military spending in USA as a percentage of GDP is around 3% and that's a lot. 12% loss you're saying isn't much.

Of course 12% is a lot, and it doesn't include the ancillary services gravitating around tourism. 

 

But numbers are not everything. 

 

Thailand's social structure, with many unemployed people able to regroup with their families upcountry, helps a lot during times of hardship. 

 

The country is going to suffer obvioulsy, but proportionally less than the overindebted developed countries and their populations addicted to public handouts. 

 

Thailand also has the geographic advantage of being in the East and South East Asia, which has suffered far less from the pandemic than Europe and America. 

 

The population of this part of the world is large enough for a market economy to flourish again in the near future. 

[Paul DS]

On 6/3/2020 at 10:50 AM, CGW said:

Which country, at this time has a stronger economy than Thailand? most other countries are in far worse shape and have pledged billions to keep their populations from starving, Thailand has set up a few food kitchens, paid out very little money and pledged very little to sustain the people - at this time! They still have plenty money in the bank, for how much longer who knows, but other nations are getting into far more debt than Thailand is? - as I see it................????

You said it for me....Thailand..Junta / Military Government..They have not now or ever really spent money on the infrastrcture, ...sure they talk a lot about massive investments, but they never actually come to fruition, Dams, Water Supply, Droughts,  Railways, Buses, Airlines, Roads, the Land itself.. investment in nothing, so they have lost nothing!

[Trillian]

5 hours ago, Paul DS said:

You said it for me....Thailand..Junta / Military Government..They have not now or ever really spent money on the infrastrcture, ...sure they talk a lot about massive investments, but they never actually come to fruition, Dams, Water Supply, Droughts,  Railways, Buses, Airlines, Roads, the Land itself.. investment in nothing, so they have lost nothing!

That's not true at all. There are large road building schemes all over the country, new hospitals have been constructed, two new airports that I know of. In the past two months we've had to make three separate trips to different locations in Thailand as part of our work. On each occaision one of our team has commented on those things, mostly because getting around is made more difficult by the road construction works.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Trillian

[Trillian]

5 hours ago, NB1986 said:

It is below 42% of GDP but how much government do for Health, safety of their citizens, how much the kids get actually from government until they are 18 and they start to find a job? It might 42% yes but 2 plus million more unemployed, the tourism in point of no return, people waiting in lines around the country for grab food... It isnt just about 42% of the debt but what country do for its citizens.  The second thing inforgot to mention Thailand households debt to gdp ratio is at stunning 70% so that 42% isnt actually the percentage which should be mentioned... 

Health care - 6.6% of GDP, it's huge at over USD 26 bill. and growing at 6.6 per year until 2026, compounded. https://2016.export.gov/industry/health/healthcareresourceguide/eg_main_108623.asp

 

Household debt and government debt are two very different things that are very separate. Whilst household debt levels are worrisome they are not high by comparison to international standards.

[Trillian]

11 hours ago, Number 6 said:

BOT could hold gold or Euro (oops that's about to implode) or RMB or whatever. It need not be only dollars.

 

Sorry, I missed this part.

 

BOT holds its foreign currency reserves in 24 different currencies (plus gold) that represent the currencies of their trading partners, including 8 of the ASEAN currencies. The reserves just happen to be denominated or accounted for in USD but actual USD is less than 60% of the total amount.

[Trillian]

8 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Of course 12% is a lot, and it doesn't include the ancillary services gravitating around tourism. 

 

But numbers are not everything. 

Yes 12% is a lot but that's not the potential loss for the year, the loss is estimated currently to be -5.x%, not 12%. And that's total loss for all aspects of the economy, not just the loss from tourism.

 

So perhaps numbers are slightly more important than you say because some people in this thread at least don't understand what the real ones are and as a result they come up with eronious or stupid conclusions. For example: basing an argument on 12% loss to GDP is plainly stupid at this stage; saying that inflation is rising and not falling is people guessing and not knowing; saying the government doesn't spend anything on healthcare is malicious and lazy; arguing the USD has not been sold for many weeks is lazy guesswork; suggesting China doesn't own gold to backup their economy is pure nonsense.

 

If people can't the basic facts right, there's just no way they are going to form an accurate or sensible opinion of what the economy is really doing or where it's headed, posters are pulling potential outcomes out of thin air based on emotion or personal sentiment rather than on any fact, deflationary spirals, currency devaluation, what a load of utter tosh.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Trillian

[Brunolem]

24 minutes ago, Trillian said:

 

If people can't the basic facts right, there's just no way they are going to form an accurate or sensible opinion of what the economy is really doing or where it's headed, posters are pulling potential outcomes out of thin air based on emotion or personal sentiment rather than on any fact, deflationary spirals, currency devaluation, what a load of utter tosh.

This is an unfortunate consequence of the internet, where all voices are equal, and where it is very difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.

 

Most people confuse facts with opinions, and the latter are largely influenced by their personal situation rather than detached observation.

 

It is obvious, for example, that the obsession of many with the level of the Thai baht has nothing to do with their concern for the country, and a lot to do with their ability to make ends meet with a shrinking retirement pension.

[Trillian]

"Most people confuse facts with opinions, and the latter are largely influenced by their personal situation rather than detached observation".

 

That's 100%, I could not agree more. Hopefully the coin will drop with some of these people that opinions based on anything other than fact really screw up the picture for those who are looking for answers or trying to form an informed view.

[uli65]

the thai visa forum members are so glad you provide us with your limitless knowledge.

thank you so much.  please continue to flood the forum with your well founded information.

[Trillian]

11 minutes ago, uli65 said:

the thai visa forum members are so glad you provide us with your limitless knowledge.

thank you so much.  please continue to flood the forum with your well founded information.

If I post something you think is false you can always disagree or prove me wrong with fact, your other choice of course is not to read anything I write here and go and read something you do enjoy, nobody makes you read this thread! Not everyone reading these threads wants to read nonsense and BS, some people come here looking for facts and you certainly don't represent everyone on the forum.

Edited June 5, 2020 by Trillian

[Brunolem]

17 minutes ago, Trillian said:

If I post something you think is false you can always disagree or prove me wrong with fact, your other choice of course is not to read anything I write here and go and read something you do enjoy, nobody makes you read this thread! Not everyone reading these threads wants to read nonsense and BS, some people come here looking for facts and you certainly don't represent everyone on the forum.

Unfortunately the net, this forum included, is full of trolls/bullies, who believe that making bold statements, such as "this is nonsense" is enough to make a point.

 

In real life, one has to argue, and present facts, before making a statement, otherwise one looks like a fool...

 

This is why there is so much misinformation, if not outright BS, on the net.

 

It is often about who is shouting the loudest, as if we were at a sporting event rather than in a debate...

[Trillian]

27 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Unfortunately the net, this forum included, is full of trolls/bullies, who believe that making bold statements, such as "this is nonsense" is enough to make a point.

 

In real life, one has to argue, and present facts, before making a statement, otherwise one looks like a fool...

 

This is why there is so much misinformation, if not outright BS, on the net.

 

It is often about who is shouting the loudest, as if we were at a sporting event rather than in a debate...

Yes, but from what I've read on Thaivisa Forum there are many statements that very clearly fall into the, "this is nonsense" camp, things that are just so outrageously incorrect and misleading that the poster must surely be trolling or out to cause mischief and upset. The most significant one I see is posters who dislike the idea of an ex-military leader being in charge and that's the catalyst for everything to be their fault. The other one is poverty, any mention of government spending brings cries of woe about the starving and homeless which of course is all governments fault.....those things are just ignorant uninformed nonsense.

 

I suppose perhaps we all have different thresholds for what is and isn't nonsense but a little reading before posting might help many posters. Then of course there's the poster who was corrected in one thread and then makes it his life's work to deliver payback in every subsequent thread, seriously unbalanced I reckon.

 

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by Trillian

[Harry Fingerling]

On 6/3/2020 at 4:50 PM, CGW said:

Which country, at this time has a stronger economy than Thailand? most other countries are in far worse shape and have pledged billions to keep their populations from starving, Thailand has set up a few food kitchens, paid out very little money and pledged very little to sustain the people - at this time! They still have plenty money in the bank, for how much longer who knows, but other nations are getting into far more debt than Thailand is? - as I see it................????

Thailand plans to borrow 600 billion baht in the current fiscal year to September and 400 billion baht in the next fiscal year to finance measures to mitigate the coronavirus impact, a finance ministry official said on Wednesday.

[CGW]

35 minutes ago, Harry Fingerling said:

Thailand plans to borrow 600 billion baht in the current fiscal year to September and 400 billion baht in the next fiscal year to finance measures to mitigate the coronavirus impact, a finance ministry official said on Wednesday.

Thinking aloud! - they are going to borrow 600b THB, which is ~19b USD, followed by a further 400b THB, which is ~12.5b USD, so they are going to borrow 31.5 Billion USD, they have ~ 250 Billion in foreign reserves, seems to me they are still "cash" rich?

Or am I looking at it wrong?

[Brunolem]

12 minutes ago, CGW said:

Thinking aloud! - they are going to borrow 600b THB, which is ~19b USD, followed by a further 400b THB, which is ~12.5b USD, so they are going to borrow 31.5 Billion USD, they have ~ 250 Billion in foreign reserves, seems to me they are still "cash" rich?

Or am I looking at it wrong?

Foreign currency reserves are generally not money sleeping at the central bank.

 

A large part of these reserves, if not all, is constantly used to run the economy, pay for imports (notably energy), help developing Thai businesses abroad, and so on

[johng]

Ahh so the foreign currency reserves are not "real" money that can be actually be used...just a theoretical "on paper" amount ??