35 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

If there was a covid crisis in Thailand we'd know about it. Period.

that's the view of many people in the uk, this has been going on for 3 months now, in a normal flu epidemic as the days go on people I know are affected, even in a social group of around 50 people, first one, then another etc, then maybe I get it, maybe not. No one I know, has had it, or if they have it's been so minor it passed as a bit of a cold, no-one I know knows anyone who as had it. It's like this thing only exists in politics and the media. Now, one by one, I'm seeing businesses close down for good, 'closed due to covid' signs being replaced by 'to let' signs, 1 years worth of suicides in the last 3 months. Now a ridiculous situation where they have drawn a red line around Leicester and lockdown everyone inside the circle, this has resulted in a border where you have one household that can go out but their neighbors can't. There is no sense in any of this unless you see it as some kind of social experiment

monkey business...

15 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

I defer to someone who remembers more clearly. My memory is that someone calculated or reported that there were about 6,000 few deaths this year for road deaths than normal. 

Estimates for road deaths in Thailand are around the 24000 figure per year. However this year there were only 6000 road deaths up until June, because there were months of lockdowns where nobody was driving.

 

This figure would distort the excess deaths figure because if you calculate that up to 6000 deaths that would normally show up in the death figures do not show up but the excess death figure is constant or 2400 above the previous years, this in itself indicates that something else killed a group of 8400 people or so.

 

 

Edited July 6, 20206 yr by Logosone

8 hours ago, Starmocihc said:

It probably has more to do with the Chinese relationship than anything else. ????

Any possible connections with this (The Telegraph UK - 4 July 2020):-

Exclusive: Huawei faces 5G ban in Britain within months

Boris Johnson expected to order about-turn with GCHQ set to raise new security fears over Chinese technology

2 hours ago, Snow Leopard said:

I disagree on the testing issue. If the virus were alive and kicking in the general population then the hospitals would be full of patients with infections.

no they wouldn't, fundamental flaw in your thinking is how Thailand treat the poor - 70% of the population

 

also very early in this virus spread Thais would have needed to pay for testing, how many could shell out 6k (up) for a test - go home and rest and here's a bottle of cheap coloured pills to take yippie yippie - if you die don't call us

25 minutes ago, smedly said:

factor in the massive reduction in road deaths and you might be getting close

factor in the number of Covid Cars too ! Cars dying every day ! 

1 hour ago, Christie Paul said:

Total death rates are more or less as per usual worldwide. There is no surge of deaths

nonsense 

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

Excess deaths calculation:

 

average per months of past ten years

+ extra deaths caused by excessively bad burning season

- people not killed in RTA's

+ extra deaths caused by suicides resulting from lockdown

+/- deaths caused by flu season or not

etc etc etc

are you trying to convince yourself lol

 

you certainly aren't convincing anyone here with your nonsense 

Not surprising considering the treatment of British citizens here. Also the cosy relationship with China and a withdrawing from closer ties with the west is the reason for this. Thailand has a choice to make. China or the West. The ramifications of a wrong choice will effect generations to come. Do you want more freedom or less. Big choice to make. Make it wisely.

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Estimates for road deaths in Thailand are around the 24000 figure per year. However this year there were only 6000 road deaths up until June, because there were months of lockdowns where nobody was driving.

 

This figure would distort the excess deaths figure because if you calculate that up to 6000 deaths that would normally show up in the death figures do not show up but the excess death figure is constant or 2400 above the previous years, this in itself indicates that something else killed an group of 8400 people or so.

Better to look at the month-by-month road deaths and compare these with the historical monthly average, instead of using historical year figures.

Only in the beginning of the lock-down traffic was way lower.  It would be quite interesting to factor in the month of June road-deaths in the comparison, as traffic is almost normal again now.  And on top of that the situation at present is what is of relevance, rather than the situation in the early covid days.

Also do note that the lesser road-deaths (a positive lock-down effect), will be somewhat compensated - unfortunately enough - by the higher suicide figures of poor people that had no income anymore and saw no way out.

1 minute ago, pops1 said:

Not surprising considering the treatment of British citizens here. Also the cosy relationship with China and a withdrawing from closer ties with the west is the reason for this. Thailand has a choice to make. China or the West. The ramifications of a wrong choice will effect generations to come. Do you want more freedom or less. Big choice to make. Make it wisely.

Hardly a mystery who'll be chosen given that 14-20% of Thais have Chinese ancestry. And most people in government like Anutin.

1 hour ago, hottrader77 said:

And you think uk numbers are accurate ??  useless boris did not help nursing homes and let covid go wild in there , uk figures include people who have had a heart attack , cancer etc but when they died they tested positive for covid but died of something else covered up by governments around the world 

rubbish

1 hour ago, DavisH said:

Wny test more when our positivity rate is 0? Whom do you suggest be tested?

could start with dead people before they are whisked off to the burner

3 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

Who wants to go to a country where people day and night moan about everything.

You mean... just like on here..

While this topic has morphed into another excess deaths/road deaths/pneumonia diagnosed deaths really being Covid-19 deaths, I think the most pertinent numbers to THIS topic are as follows:

 

"British nationals make over one million visits to Thailand every year"

Still current at 6 July 2020

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/thailand

 

184,412 (2019) Thailand to UK visits https://www.visitbritain.org/markets/thailand

And UK is saying to Thailand that we send all these people to Thailand every year while Thailand to UK is about a 20% of that so NUTS TO YOU!

3 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

Better to look at the month-by-month road deaths and compare these with the historical monthly average, instead of using historical year figures.

Only in the beginning of the lock-down traffic was way lower.  It would be quite interesting to factor in the month of June road-deaths in the comparison, as traffic is almost normal again now.  And on top of that the situation at present is what is of relevance, rather than the situation in the early covid days.

Also do note that the lesser road-deaths (a positive lock-down effect), will be somewhat compensated - unfortunately enough - by the higher suicide figures of poor people that had no income anymore and saw no way out.

Yes. I think some things like increased suicides and people who need critical care but who don't go the hospital out of fear of testing/infection (and, who then die) would increase the number. I would not say that all the excess deaths one might see in that data would be from Covid 19. However, in the absence of a factor (or factors) to explain a huge increase, one wonders since the increase showed up staring in May of 2019 and persisted. 

1 hour ago, DavisH said:

Rubbish. Thais will present to a hospital with even the mildest of symptoms of the flu. And if there were large numbers of cases and many people getting (very)sick, it would be all over social media. 

your naivety is astonishing - right up there with you posting buddy Trllian

54 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

What’s the normal number of road deaths so we can deduct it? 

it's about 50k a year

Edited July 6, 20206 yr by smedly

14 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

Better to look at the month-by-month road deaths and compare these with the historical monthly average, instead of using historical year figures.

Only in the beginning of the lock-down traffic was way lower.  It would be quite interesting to factor in the month of June road-deaths in the comparison, as traffic is almost normal again now.  And on top of that the situation at present is what is of relevance, rather than the situation in the early covid days.

Also do note that the lesser road-deaths (a positive lock-down effect), will be somewhat compensated - unfortunately enough - by the higher suicide figures of poor people that had no income anymore and saw no way out.

I rather doubt that 6000 less road deaths will be offset by suicides. Suicides will hardly make a dent. It's a tiny number.

 

The problem with Thailand's accident statistics is that they only rely on one insurance company to provide the figures.

 

"The death toll is believed to be much higher than these figures suggest with even government leaders accepting it surpasses 20,000 per year.

 

Most estimates put the figure at between 24,000 and 26,000 annually when all deaths at hospitals, and on the way to hospitals, are added."

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/road-deaths/thai-road-deaths-surpass-6000-for-year-to-date

 

If you had 6000 deaths up to June, which is the half-way mark, roughly 6000 deaths less than normal have occurred.

 

Indeed month by month figures would be helpful but if provided by the Thai authorities they would only be based on the accident data of one insurer. Even government officials accept the real figure is higher.

 

23 minutes ago, smedly said:

are you trying to convince yourself lol

 

you certainly aren't convincing anyone here with your nonsense 

My rule of thumb is to find out what you think on any given subject and then go with the opposite, you let your dislike and distrust of all things Thai get in the way of arriving at sensible logical answers to anything.

1 hour ago, smedly said:

and not to forget the very expensive Thai only mandatory scam insurance 

I thought Thai's did  not scam, pathetic hypocrite ????.

regards worgeordie

have a taste of your own medicine thailand. hope it doesnt backfire on the uk tho,as this is a loss of face for the thais and we all know how much they hate that

29 minutes ago, smedly said:

are you trying to convince yourself lol

 

you certainly aren't convincing anyone here with your nonsense 

Simple people want simple answers, the world doesn't work that way, things are far more complex and involved than merely pulling a number out of the air.

4 minutes ago, Trillian said:

you let your dislike and distrust of all things Thai

let me correct you

 

you let your dislike and distrust of all things Thai military government 

1 minute ago, Trillian said:

Simple people want simple answers, the world doesn't work that way, things are far more complex and involved than merely pulling a number out of the air.

and it is very obviously beyond you on this topic

18 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I rather doubt that 6000 less road deaths will be offset by suicides. Suicides will hardly make a dent. It's a tiny number.

 

The problem with Thailand's accident statistics is that they only rely on one insurance company to provide the figures.

 

"The death toll is believed to be much higher than these figures suggest with even government leaders accepting it surpasses 20,000 per year.

 

Most estimates put the figure at between 24,000 and 26,000 annually when all deaths at hospitals, and on the way to hospitals, are added."

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/road-deaths/thai-road-deaths-surpass-6000-for-year-to-date

 

If you had 6000 deaths up to June, which is the half-way mark, roughly 6000 deaths less than normal have occurred.

 

Indeed month by month figures would be helpful but if provided by the Thai authorities they would only be based on the accident data of one insurer. Even government officials accept the real figure is higher.

 

Estimates for people dying prematurely in SE Asia as a result of airborne pollution put the excess deaths between 1999 and 2014 at 1.4 million people (per Shi Y study), that's on average 100,000 per year. Given that this year was the worst year on record don't you think that trying to attribute a few extra unaccounted for deaths to the virus is a complete folly and waste of time.

 

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

Belgium includes in its counting SUSPECTED deaths for some strange reason which is why it’s #1

So does the US, and probably others.

Amazing Trusted Thailand, well, not according to the UK government. Without mass testing they have no idea how many are infected or where hot spots are occuring. You will note that Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia and the Philippines are not on the list too, just Vietnam.

10 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

They obviously don't trust the Thai government figures provided, test numbers were very low and shady

Australia has had this in since March , now, in Western Australia if you come down you have to pay your own quarantine hotel bill. 

14 minutes ago, smedly said:

and it is very obviously beyond you on this topic

Attacking the poster doesn't do much for your credibility in the argument, why not try and counter the points made instead!