Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand could be as low as 6 million in 2021, warns TAT

 

FILE PHOTO: Reuters

 

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has forecast how many foreigners it expects to visit the country in 2021.

 

The predictions paint a potentially grim picture of what may lie ahead for the industry as a whole, even when Thailand eventually decides to open its borders to foreign tourists.

 

As outlined in its latest tourism forecast report, TAT put forward three possible scenarios for tourism in Thailand next year: a worst case, a medium case and best case scenario.

 

In its ‘worst case scenario’ which would mean Thailand’s borders not opened to foreigners until the fourth quarter (Oct to Dec) of next year, TAT said it predicts just 6.14 million foreigners to visit Thailand - a huge drop from the previous 40 million foreign tourists that visited Thailand in 2019. 

 

Revenue for the ‘worst case scenario’ would shrink to just 296 billion baht, which represents just 16 percent of what Thailand’s tourism industry earned in 2019.

 

TAT’s ‘medium case scenario’ would see foreigners returning in the third quarter (especially during European school holidays). This scenario sees TAT predict approximately 12.5 million tourists.

 

The ‘best case scenario’, TAT said, was for foreign tourists to return at the start of 2021.

 

However, the ‘best case scenario’ would still only see Thailand welcome around 50 percent of the amount of tourists it did in 2019.

 

In the event tourists can visit Thailand by the start of next year, the country can expect 20.5 million foreign tourists in 2021, generating around 1.5 trillion baht for the country’s tourism industry, TAT forecasted in its report. 

 

Source: Daily New

 

 

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Fairly meaningless mumbo jumbo figures with the single piece of truth in there that numbers are going to be very low, regardless of when the border does open. The tourist industry is not going to see meaningful business any time in the near future.

They seem to think people are camp outside airports already waiting on flights to resume.

tourism may never be the same again 

15 minutes ago, darksidedog said:

Fairly meaningless mumbo jumbo figures with the single piece of truth in there that numbers are going to be very low, regardless of when the border does open. The tourist industry is not going to see meaningful business any time in the near future.

Absolutely .. a load of guff not based on reality .. just wishful thinking in the case of the best case scenario at the bottom .. 

Edited August 10, 20205 yr by Justgrazing
Sp

TAT should lay off the SangSom.....If the borders do not open 6,000,000 is a pipe dream...

Edited August 10, 20205 yr by redwood1

The worst case scenario is 0 tourists in 2021. It is also the most probable one.

It's gonna be a lot worse than they are forecasting .................. recovery too will take years to return to previous levels. If Thailand survives all this & the tourist industry recovers fully too it'll be the "eighth wonder of the world" ............ just my opinion. It'll be a mediocre recovery, slow & painful  ........ the golden goose has long gone ........ fact.

Edited August 10, 20205 yr by Daveyh

Even if they open i can't see the two week millionaires coming back to spend their entire time in quarantine

these are tough times for all the countries as tourism is interdependent and until most countries recover from the pandemic.

Edited August 10, 20205 yr by sahibji

33 minutes ago, swampdonkey said:

They seem to think people are camp outside airports already waiting on flights to resume.

tourism may never be the same again 

how right you are swampdonkey.

32 minutes ago, swampdonkey said:

They seem to think people are camp outside airports already waiting on flights to resume.

tourism may never be the same again 

People are waiting for the borders to open. We have a number of bookings from visitors who want to get out of their own country for a break and in warmer weather.

However, reality is that they will have to cancel those bookings as the borders are unlikely to open this year.

We can only hope the figures stay very, very low. 

This is one country that truly deserves a huge drop in tourism, 

regardless what some wish to claim about the Thai's being such generous, sincere people. 

As Thailand tries to figure out what happened...other countries will be ready and have a plan to make tourism strong for their country.

We can already see signs of the neighboring countries getting ready with repairs to the infrastructures,

and accommodations. While Thailand just keep pushing figures out the media, hoping that it will magically come true. 

I can only hope it stays very quiet for a long time to come, so Thailand can reflect upon itself, 

and the Immigration officers that expelled their inner hate for us, can ask themselves where they will work next?

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

‘best case scenario’

Its right under their noses for the current situation, the expats living here can contribute to the Thai economy as much as, if not better than the Thai's, but at what discounts we talking, you know when things get tough, the tough get going, and the survival of the fittest will prevail.

 

Have money, willing to spend it to go on holidays, or sit it out, up to them. ????

 

The whole ballgame has changed since Covid, we know that, but do they, e.g. a twin room in a 3 star cost 956 baht for Friday 21st August, Saturday is 1,605 baht wouldn't it be better to have a single rate right across the board under the current situation, i.e. 1,000 baht per night all week, hotels don't pay penalty rates, so if they adopted a single room rate for the whole 7 days, I would imagine their hotels would be fuller over the weekends, you don't have to be Einstein to know that, and when the pandemic is over, they can go back to the normal rates, i.e. charging an extra 60% for the Saturday night, but not in the current situation as many are sitting on their golden eggs like me.

 

Edited August 10, 20205 yr by 4MyEgo

26 minutes ago, skorp13 said:

Even if they open i can't see the two week millionaires coming back to spend their entire time in quarantine

Worse than that, a lot of those two week millionaires are probably unemployed, they just don't know it yet.

 

When all the various furlough, stimulus schemes across the West end, wait to see how many businesses shut up shop and the subsequent tsunami of real unemployment.

 

Regardless of whether Thailands borders are open, fights are available, I doubt many people are going to be focussed on a vacation in Thailand.

Roof over their head, food on the table is going to be the first priority

So, the reality is 75% drop in tourism this year, and near 80% next year, that's a loss of about 70 million tourists and near 4.5 trillion baht based on their figures. 

 

A reality bomb is about to hit Thailand and chaos and discontent will be openly violent on the streets in the coming 6 months

Given the number of people out of work and their fear of travel, nobody is in a big hurry to go anywhere.  The numbers will be low.  The junta will have to be nicer to tourists if they want to stay ahead of Malaysia and Vietnam.  Thailand's puritanical and delusional army curtailed tourism, as they shunned repeat customers.  That is the basis of all good business.  The preference for first time suckers was a financial cancerous decision. 

 

Not going anywhere until paid to do so.   

The problem is, the government and all the authorities of TAT etc. don't know a sh...

 

1. It will takes a long time till tourism will start again.

2. Many people will recover first their finances before considering of a holiday in Thailand.

3. Since it is out that, FOREIGNERS ARE NOT REALLY WELCOME, many will change their destination.

4. There are many other asian countries which also to a lot of atvertising. And these countries do not have the same dual pricing and cheating reputation. 

 

The golden goose time of Thailand are over. Making the Walking stree a food court will never generate the same money, further the money will not increase, it will only move around.

 

  

Finally, Thailand's natural habitats are getting a badly needed respite from the masses. All the better.

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand could be as low as 6 million in 2021, warns TAT

The TAT and its numbers, trying desperately to look relevant...

"No please, don't shut us down, we have many more numbers to give: 3.78, 42659001, -1/5, 177km/hr (sorry, wrong number from different story)..."

It's  utter stupidity for any country to rely so much on tourism for their income. Sri Lanka was a good example, its tourist industry was doing exceptionally well and then there was a virtual civil war. The government needs to completely rethink its tourist policy and branch out into other means of creating employment. The unemployed in the tourism business will just have to find jobs in construction and agriculture. There seems to be a shortage of employees in these sectors. Thailand was doing pretty well before its tourism took off.  In my opinion mass tourism of the kind that Thailand has experienced is detrimental to the environment and many other things. Same can be said of Nepal.

 

43 minutes ago, ajarnmarc said:

We can only hope the figures stay very, very low. 

This is one country that truly deserves a huge drop in tourism, 

regardless what some wish to claim about the Thai's being such generous, sincere people. 

As Thailand tries to figure out what happened...other countries will be ready and have a plan to make tourism strong for their country.

We can already see signs of the neighboring countries getting ready with repairs to the infrastructures,

and accommodations. While Thailand just keep pushing figures out the media, hoping that it will magically come true. 

I can only hope it stays very quiet for a long time to come, so Thailand can reflect upon itself, 

and the Immigration officers that expelled their inner hate for us, can ask themselves where they will work next?

 

This is so true. Like I've been saying for months, It's easy to shut the borders to keep out the virus. The harder thing is living and dealing with the virus on a daily basis whilst still keeping your economy up and running. It's Thai life, no plan for tomorrow.

That's an almost sustainable number, but should be spread over a year:

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

 

May it never rise to the soul destroying Chinese zero dollar tour levels again.

Finaly even one official (if you can say TAT is ) announcement that this year nothing move in or out from this coundry! Why count next year things if going to open this year! Ok we all know it already!

Edited August 10, 20205 yr by 2 is 1

Six million?

 

Yeah, right.

 

How are they going to get here?

1 hour ago, sahibji said:

these are tough times for all the countries as tourism is interdependent and until most countries recover from the pandemic.

I think you are right almost all countries are going to show a definite drop in toruism for a couple of reasons

lack of money

worries about getting sick even if they find a vaccine it will only be for one strain of covid.

This all might change if a vaccine that really works is produced soon.And don't forget to send 

China the bill!

Frankly the OP should read "arrivals could be as high as 6 Million" in 2021

1 hour ago, ajarnmarc said:

We can only hope the figures stay very, very low. 

This is one country that truly deserves a huge drop in tourism, 

regardless what some wish to claim about the Thai's being such generous, sincere people. 

As Thailand tries to figure out what happened...other countries will be ready and have a plan to make tourism strong for their country.

We can already see signs of the neighboring countries getting ready with repairs to the infrastructures,

and accommodations. While Thailand just keep pushing figures out the media, hoping that it will magically come true. 

I can only hope it stays very quiet for a long time to come, so Thailand can reflect upon itself, 

and the Immigration officers that expelled their inner hate for us, can ask themselves where they will work next?

 

Yes, all good and nice!

What people like you seem to overlook - very conveniently - is that fact, that a bunch (as in A LOT!) of people are dependent on tourism!

From the seasonal workers, to the small street vendors, to the small shops and market stall in the holiday destinations...

Tourism is not only the idiots at TAT or the rascist Anutin or some out-of-touch hotel chain!

It is millions who are working directly or indirectly for and with tourists!

But, yeah...**** them, I say!

Thailand will need to focus on intrepid travellers, those travelling for 2 to 6 months that want a base in SE Asia. This is what they use to have until focusing on mass tourism from China, that means backpackers and sex tourists, their core type of travellers, which they hate 555

 

Families and couples won't be doing long haul for a very long time, single travellers and small groups will carry on doing long haul.

As I hear from relatives and friends back home in good 'ole Europe, the weather is hot and the summer vacation is in full swing. People are out in droves, spending their holidays at regional places that they have shunned for years in favor of long-haul destinations. And everybody seems to be entirely content about it.

 

Albania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Montenegro

Sardinia, Sicily, Corsica

Portugal

the Balearic Islands

the Spanish "costas"

the Italian Adriatic coast

 

They all can be quite comfortably reached by car, train or - in the case of the islands - short ferry hops.

There even are quick flights again to the Canary Islands, Greece and its Aegean archipelagos for a few euros per person, saving not only a seemingly endless 12-hour journey but also spending an arm and a leg on a long-haul ticket.

Importantly, the price levels at many European destinations either are absolutely on par with Thailand or even considerably cheaper (e.g. Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro).

Infrastructure is generally good, most hotels are spotless... and there are no rubbish dumps behind the next sand dune at the dream beach.

You don't risk life and limb by taking a simple taxi or hopping on a mini bus.

Service is friendly and courteous and doesn't reek of fake smiles.

Double pricing practically does not exist and everybody pays the same entrance fees to tourist attractions, museums, natural parks, etc -- regardless where they hail from or what their skin color is.

 

Once the Europeans have "rediscovered" how beautiful, diverse and thoroughly affordable their own holiday destinations actually are, Thailand will have an even harder time to entice them back in any meaningful numbers.

 

The country now of course has the unique opportunity to overhaul, restructure and adjust its entire tourism industry from the ground up to make it attractive for long-haul travelers again. But as I know the Thais, they are going to miss that chance in favor of keeping pursuing the "same old".

 

Once the country opens up again, Thailand will primarily have to be content with regional travelers. But the gravy train from Europe --- it is NOT going to depart anytime soon under the prevailing circumstances.