According to Donald Henderson, responsible for eradicating small the way to deal with a pandemic

[steelepulse]

https://www.aier.org/article/how-a-free-society-deals-with-pandemics-according-to-legendary-epidemiologist-and-smallpox-eradicator-donald-henderson/

 

According to this article in the American Institute for Economic Research, Donald was the twentieth-century’s most acclaimed disease eradicator. He is credited with ridding the world of smallpox.  In 2006 he was commissioned to come up with a plan on how to deal with a pandemic.

 

The bottom line is "Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted. Strong political and public health leadership to provide reassurance and to ensure that needed medical care services are provided are critical elements. If either is seen to be less than optimal, a manageable epidemic could move toward catastrophe."

 

What he writes in the paper makes perfect sense about travel, keeping people at ease etc.  The exact opposite of how this coronavirus has been handled to the detriment of the world.

 

The full paper can be found at http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

[KhaoNiaw]

Just from that bottom line, it looks like too many countries have been unable "to ensure that needed medical care services are provided" to the level required to allow for normal social functioning and have used lockdowns to cope. Unforgivable in most wealthy western countries really. 

[cmarshall]

By the time Henderson was tasked with eliminating smallpox in 1966, it only broke out in small, relatively distinct areas, quite unlike the global spread of Covid-19.  The reason is probably because prior exposures had produced some immunity to smallpox, while at the start of the current outbreak no one was immune to Covid-19.  Also, Henderson was armed with an effective vaccine against smallpox.  (In fact, the first vaccine in the world was developed against smallpox in the 18th century.)  So, immediately on report of a smallpox outbreak somewhere in the world, Henderson and his team would scoot over there and vaccinate everyone in sight, by force if necessary.  

 

So, during the smallpox campaign Henderson never had to contemplate inherently disruptive measures such as a national lockdown.  For that reason this particular advice of his may not be so apt at the moment.

[steelepulse]

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

By the time Henderson was tasked with eliminating smallpox in 1966, it only broke out in small, relatively distinct areas, quite unlike the global spread of Covid-19.  The reason is probably because prior exposures had produced some immunity to smallpox, while at the start of the current outbreak no one was immune to Covid-19.  Also, Henderson was armed with an effective vaccine against smallpox.  (In fact, the first vaccine in the world was developed against smallpox in the 18th century.)  So, immediately on report of a smallpox outbreak somewhere in the world, Henderson and his team would scoot over there and vaccinate everyone in sight, by force if necessary.  

 

So, during the smallpox campaign Henderson never had to contemplate inherently disruptive measures such as a national lockdown.  For that reason this particular advice of his may not be so apt at the moment.

Did you miss the date of this publication?  It was 2006, not 1966.

[cmarshall]

2 hours ago, steelepulse said:

Did you miss the date of this publication?  It was 2006, not 1966.

No, I didn't miss the date at all.  Nevertheless, my reading is that Henderson's 2006 opinion was mainly based on his experience with smallpox forty years prior.  He should have taken into account the experiences of the H1N1 Flu of 1918 and SARS in 2003, but it doesn't sound like he did.  The SARS pandemic, in particular, while never as widespread as Covid-19, was only eradicated by the strictest application of the kind of public health measures that he wants to avoid in the passage cited.  The Chinese government would not have eradicated SARS without disrupting the normal function of society, at least in those areas affected.  If you remember, at one point the PLA surrounded a SARS hospital with armed soldiers to prevent anyone at all from leaving.  So, highly disruptive to normal life, but also effective.

 

Scientists, even good ones. are as subject to availability bias as anyone else.

[rcummings]

It's also useful to point out that Henderson was one of only 4 authors. Thomas Inglesby was listed first and he has quite a different take on how to deal with the virus. Inglesby is currently the head of the Johns Hopkins Institute of Biosecurity. Among other things he said that Betsy Devos push to open schools "seems like the wrong approach to me." And of course it isn't just Devos who's pushing for this. Seems to me that there's a fellow named Trump doing the same. Inglesby also pushed for social distancing, face coverings, and telecommuting. And he recommended going back a phase in the reopening as well.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/public-health-expert-says-devos-push-to-force-schools-to-reopen-in-fall-seems-like-the-wrong-approach-to-me