America about to go full Sweden

[cmarshall]

US Covid policy is coming under the sway of a Fox New radiologist Dr. Scott Atlas who endorses the "herd immunity" approach that has pushed Sweden up to 570 deaths per million, the eighth worst record in the world at this point.  The US, with 563 deaths per million is nipping at Sweden's heels and will soon surpass it, possibly by a large amount.  Dr. Atlas thinks the more people who contract Covid the better the sooner "herd immunity" will be achieved and normal life can resume.  As with so many policies of the Trump administration there is little or no scientific basis for the belief that herd immunity can ever be achieved.  Recently, there have been more cases of proven re-infection suggesting that whatever immunity may result from infection may be short-lived, which would be consistent with the immunology of other coronaviruses.

 

Consistent with the emerging influence of Dr. Atlas's views the CDC has just announced a new recommendation that people who have been exposed to the virus, but are not yet sick, should not be tested.  

 

So, I renew my estimate that the US Covid death toll will eventually reach two million.

 

Here's an op-ed piece by a Nobel-prize winning virologist on why the CDC's recommendation is wrong:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/opinion/cdc-testing-coronavirus.html

 

Times article on Dr. Scott Atlas's views:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/trump-scott-atlas-coronavirus.html

 

 

[SteveK]

So they're going to use the same approach that has been used every single time in history; let the disease run its course, get back to normal ASAP. By the way, that approach was always successful. What has 6 months of economy destruction achieved? It's just made things a hundred times worse. Covid-19 is nothing compared to the Black Death or the Spanish flu, they survived. What'll we do if something like that comes along in the next few months? 

Edited September 3, 2020 by SteveK

[RichardColeman]

9 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

So, I renew my estimate that the US Covid death toll will eventually reach two million.

Considering the sheer amount of obesity, heart disease, lung issues from smoking, alcohol issues, and other self inflicted issues that the general USA public have deliberately inflicted upon themselves - it could just be nature thinning the herd of stupidity ! !

[Surelynot]

3 minutes ago, SteveK said:

So they're going to use the same approach that has been used every single time in history; let the disease run its course, get back to normal ASAP. By the way, that approach was always successful. What has 6 months of economy destruction achieved? It's just made things a hundred times worse. Covid-19 is nothing compared to the Black Death or the Spanish flu, they survived. What'll we do if something like that comes along in the next few months? 

Have you thought the action taken so far has limited the number of deaths......Oh!.....but you don't care do you?

[SteveK]

7 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Have you thought the action taken so far has limited the number of deaths......Oh!.....but you don't care do you?

Take a look at the stats of who died. If you want to stop deaths then stop people driving in Thailand, stop people smoking, stop people using drugs - you'd save a lot more lives and wouldn't implode the economy.

 

Most people who died from covid-19 were either elderly or unwell. Yes, it's still a death, but giving some old codger an extra year is not worth destroying the world economy, people's careers businesses and livelihoods. Oh!.....but you don't care do you?   

 

Some people have worked all their life to build up a business to put food on the table for their family. Now that's all been wiped out to keep a few geriatrics who can't even wipe their own ass alive for a bit longer,

Edited September 3, 2020 by SteveK

[richard_smith237]

16 minutes ago, SteveK said:

So they're going to use the same approach that has been used every single time in history; let the disease run its course, get back to normal ASAP. By the way, that approach was always successful. What has 6 months of economy destruction achieved? It's just made things a hundred times worse. Covid-19 is nothing compared to the Black Death or the Spanish flu, they survived. What'll we do if something like that comes along in the next few months? 

 

A lot of the hysteria fell on the back of the Spanish Flu and SARS-CoV-1 and MERS

 

The Spanish Flu infected about one third of the worlds population at the time, but its an influenza Virus. 

The most recent ’novel corona viruses’ were SARS-CoV-1 and MERS with 10% and 30% case fatality rates. 

 

Modelling an one third infection rate with 10% and 30% fatality rates presented devastating results. 

 

The Worlds Governments were incredibly slow to react given the devastation the models presented.

Lock down was the correct course of action at the time given the knowledge we had. 

 

Fast forwarding a few months it became clear that the models were wrong and the fatality rates and rates of serious cases were no where near as extreme. 

 

Why the world continued to lock down is beyond logic. I suspect admitting an over reaction could be political suicide and those in positions of power do not want to openly admit an over reaction. 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by richard_smith237

[86Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Have you thought the action taken so far has limited the number of deaths......Oh!.....but you don't care do you?

Never since the beginning of this entire episode has any one advocated the measures taken would limit the numbers of deaths or infected.  The numbers would only be spread over a longer period of time: flatten the curve was not designed to eliminate the curve.

[cmarshall]

1 minute ago, 86Tiger said:

Never since the beginning of this entire episode has any one advocated the measures taken would limit the numbers of deaths or infected.  The numbers would only be spread over a longer period of time: flatten the curve was not designed to eliminate the curve.

Completely and utterly wrong.  China has currently about 40 new cases per day and no deaths.  S. Korea, pop. 51 million, has had 326 deaths and never locked down.  Vietnam, pop. 95 million, has had 34 deaths and no lockdown.  Taiwan, pop. 23 million, has had 9 deaths and no lockdown.

 

How do you manage to ignore these facts?

[SteveK]

1 minute ago, richard_smith237 said:

Why the world continued to lock down is beyond logic. I suspect admitting an over reaction could be political suicide and those in positions of power do not want to openly admit an over reaction. 

Once this mess is cleared up, I'm certain that historians will look back at it and declare it as a complete and utter disaster, and not because of the virus but because of the gross mismanagement, negligence, stupidity and hysteria.  Let's face it, the number of deaths is almost negligible in the grand scheme of things, in the next few months we'll see more about the poverty, bankruptcies and suicides this stupidity has caused. Family businesses devastated, economies wiped out, industries set back years because of a virus that you probably won't even know that you had unless you got tested......

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

20 minutes ago, SteveK said:

Yes, it's still a death, but giving some old codger an extra year is not worth destroying the world economy,

 

Hope your parents aren't around to hear/read your views...

 

[86Tiger]

3 minutes ago, SteveK said:

Once this mess is cleared up, I'm certain that historians will look back at it and declare it as a complete and utter disaster, and not because of the virus but because of the gross mismanagement, negligence, stupidity and hysteria.  Let's face it, the number of deaths is almost negligible in the grand scheme of things, in the next few months we'll see more about the poverty, bankruptcies and suicides this stupidity has caused. Family businesses devastated, economies wiped out, industries set back years because of a virus that you probably won't even know that you had unless you got tested......

This is no place for reality.  I got my mask....

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 minutes ago, SteveK said:

Once this mess is cleared up, I'm certain that historians will look back at it and declare it as a complete and utter disaster, and not because of the virus but because of the gross mismanagement, negligence, stupidity and hysteria.  Let's face it, the number of deaths is almost negligible in the grand scheme of things, in the next few months we'll see more about the poverty, bankruptcies and suicides this stupidity has caused. Family businesses devastated, economies wiped out, industries set back years because of a virus that you probably won't even know that you had unless you got tested......

 

Last time I looked, about 5000 people per day are dying of CV in the world, including around 1000 per day in the U.S. alone during the past month...  The world is heading for 1 million official CV deaths overall pretty soon.

 

Are you volunteering to take someone's place?  Or are you just OK when it's OTHER people that you want to allow to die?

 

From Johns Hopkins Sept 2 update:

 

Quote

 

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 25.60 million cases (245,984 new) and 852,758 deaths (4,355 new) as of 10:00am EDT on September 2.

 

UNITED STATES

The US CDC reported 6.00 million total cases (32,087 new) and 183,050 deaths (428 new).

 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[SteveK]

If I was in my 70's and someone said look, we can keep you alive for another year, but it'll cause untold misery to millions around the world, I'd say fine. I'm only one person. Let me die. I would consider that to be honourable, now some fool is going to reply to this and say that I'm selfish. I'm not worried about self-preservation and generally go out of my way to help others, so suggesting I jump on a funeral pyre to save one business in a purely hypothetical situation is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Since when is it OK to say "I can't wait to see you jump on a funeral pyre"?

Edited September 3, 2020 by SteveK

[bodga]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Last time I looked, about 5000 people per day are dying of CV in the world, including around 1000 per day in the U.S. alone during the past month...  Are you volunteering to take someone's place?

 

From Johns Hopkins Sept 2 update:

 

 

 

one person dies every 25  seconds on the roads worldwide to give some perspective = 3456 a  day except theres  no  vaccine for that and thats after  all the safety of airbags abs etc etc

[Sujo]

8 minutes ago, SteveK said:

If I was in my 70's and someone said look, we can keep you alive for another year, but it'll cause untold misery to millions around the world, I'd say fine. I'm only one person. Let me die. I would consider that to be honourable, now some fool is going to reply to this and say that I'm selfish. I'm not worried about self-preservation and generally go out of my way to help others, so suggesting I jump on a funeral pyre to save one business in a purely hypothetical situation is the dumbest thing I have ever heard.

What number of deaths is acceptable to you.

[alyx]

If I were a US citizen I would welcome this move but unlike Sweden, when a decision is taken it does not apply to every state or even every city as political feuds lead to counter decisions just for the sake of. Why can't they seem to take a unilateral position ?

Sweden did well and will not be hit by other waves. Business as usual. 
I don't think I am being selfish as the virus has indirectly hurt, to say the least,  an incalculable number of people, and I am not only referring to the economic impact. And If I were to be badly infected, of course I would cry but isn't it what life is about. 

Now, about numbers and projections everyone seems to have been wrong so....

[2 is 1]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Last time I looked, about 5000 people per day are dying of CV in the world, including around 1000 per day in the U.S. alone during the past month...  Are you volunteering to take someone's place?

Smoking kills 14,000 people every day in the world say WHO!

There are many other things what kill people ! I dont want my mom get covid , but people can't live forever in cage!

How long time they are going to wait vaccine? Half year, 1 year,2 year....... what if never come vaccine?

Bye bye all coz flue!

[Sujo]

5 minutes ago, bodga said:

one person dies every 25  seconds on the roads worldwide to give some perspective = 3456 a  day except theres  no  vaccine for that and thats after  all the safety of airbags abs etc etc

So you think they should take out the safety features in cars?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

but people can't live forever in cage!

 

In case you hadn't noticed, no one in Thailand is trapped in cages.. No one is locked in their homes. No one is barred from going outside. Etc etc....  The economy has not been destroyed. Life is going on... admittedly, with hardship for those whose livelihoods are tied to the tourism industry... 

 

Probably, a good indicator for the future to not put all of one's economic eggs in one tourism industry basket. Remember when Thailand used to talk about the virtues of a "sufficiency economy," being able to support itself?

 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[alyx]

1 minute ago, Sujo said:

What number of deaths is acceptable to you.

No number is acceptable and even less when one is directly confronted to it. All these exchanges are about the force of Nature and the weakness, although sometimes smart, of the Humanity. 

It is definitely not the majority of people who are ready to die whatever their age : 20/50/90

Do whatever you can to escape but in the end the winner is not the Human kind...let it take its course while protecting ourselves but the hard thing is to decide what is the right protection and until which point it is acceptable.....balance is the keyword

[LomSak27]

Just now, SteveK said:

If I was in my 70's and someone said look, we can keep you alive for another year, but it'll cause untold misery to millions around the world, I'd say fine. I'm only one person. Let me die

 

Holy brain aneurysm, Batman. You would make that great sacrifice for all of us, for humanity,  if IF IF IF IF only .... oh wait you won't, you can't, but if you could .... blah blah blah. Do really expect anyone to believe a whopper like that.   

[cmarshall]

18 minutes ago, Sujo said:

What number of deaths is acceptable to you.

I think he can tolerate a high number of deaths as long as none of them are him.

[Rimmer]

A troll post and a reply have been removed

[Baht Simpson]

Herd immunity is a concept that guides vaccine policy to prevent outbreaks, writes

@JamesHamblin

. It is not an approach to ending a global pandemic.

 

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/herd-immunity-is-not-a-strategy/615967/?utm_term=2020-09-02T23%3A25%3A26&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social

Edited September 3, 2020 by Baht Simpson

[2 is 1]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

In case you hadn't noticed, no one in Thailand is trapped in cages.. No one is locked in their homes. No one is barred from going outside. Etc etc....  The economy has not been destroyed. Life is going on... admittedly, with hardship for those whose livelihoods are tied to the tourism industry... 

 

Probably, a good indicator for the future to not put all of one's economic eggs in one tourism industry basket. Remember when Thailand used to talk about the virtues of a "sufficiency economy," being able to support itself?

 

 

That was figurative. And its cage to me if i can't travel where ever i want when i want! Whitout all extra sht from every place! Test's , insurance, quarantine... It's like North Korea stuff to me! I believe in personal freedom!

Have to put this again!

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

14 minutes ago, alyx said:

If I were a US citizen I would welcome this move

 

Please explain to me how this is good...

 

Quote

The US has 4% of the world's population but 25% of its coronavirus cases

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/health/us-coronavirus-toll-in-numbers-june-trnd/index.html

 

The above news report is a couple months old, but the basic ratio has remained similar.

 

Quote

More Americans have died from coronavirus than in wars in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan

 

Quote

More Americans also have died of coronavirus in less than five months than in all of World War I. That conflict took the lives of 116,516 American soldiers.

 

And yet, there are still Americans like Trump and his fans who proudly go about refusing to wear a simple face mask, claiming it impinges on their "freedom."  A total and complete lack of social responsibility, and thus the virus spreads and more people get sick and die.

 

[SteveK]

Obviously any deaths from a pandemic is sad. But diseases and death are just the way the world is, compounding the issue by destroying people's livelihoods is not something that was ever done in the past, and seems to be completely idiotic and counter productive. If some virtue-signalling lefty wants to try and say that it was worth wiping out the livelihoods of millions of families around the globe to keep a relatively small number of pensioners alive a bit longer, then I would suggest that they are just being stupid and trying to cause an argument. There is still zero evidence that the lockdowns saved anyone's life but it's pretty obvious that many people have been financially ruined by it.

[FarFlungFalang]

27 minutes ago, SteveK said:

If I was in my 70's and someone said look, we can keep you alive for another year, but it'll cause untold misery to millions around the world, I'd say fine. I'm only one person. Let me die. I would consider that to be honourable, now some fool is going to reply to this and say that I'm selfish. I'm not worried about self-preservation and generally go out of my way to help others, so suggesting I jump on a funeral pyre to save one business in a purely hypothetical situation is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Since when is it OK to say "I can't wait to see you jump on a funeral pyre"?

Steve you forgot to mention that the vulnerable people you mentioned died anyway and were not saved by the lockdowns and other measures so the economy and the lives of hundreds of millions were destroyed for no provable benefit in the end.Sweden has virtually finished their part in 3 months and are now continuing on as normal where as those that are still fighting the pandemic will be suffering for years if not decades to come.

[fruitman]

1 hour ago, SteveK said:

What'll we do if something like that comes along in the next few months?

Then we'll see again what to do, but we should have real scientific experts who dare to give their opinion, what we have now is a bunch of fake doctors who all follow the leader without a doubt.

 

And in the mean time we can arrest all those WHO folks who didn't know anything about this virus or how to test/control it. They ruined our economies for no reason which can't go unpunished.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

8 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

That was figurative. And its cage to me if i can't travel where ever i want when i want! Whitout all extra sht from every place! Test's , insurance, quarantine... It's like North Korea stuff to me! I believe in personal freedom!

 

Ohh... poor boy.. Your freedoms are being impinged upon again???

 

You mean, like when Immigration tells you what you have to do with the money in your bank account... Or 7/11 tells you you can't buy your beer between 2 and 5 every day?  Or when your own government takes money out of your income every month via taxes?

 

You can live with all that, but not simple precautions to protect yourself and those around you. Instead, you want a country that gives you the "freedom" to get sick and then turn around and infect other people and make them sick?  That's your idea of "freedom"?

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK