The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[bkkandrew]

reality is delicious.......have a taste "defenders of the realm"

ECONOMY OUTLOOK

Business leaders say economic stimulus measures are failing

Pramon Sutivong, the chamber's chairman, said foreign companies would continue delayed projects but would wait for a clearer political situation before initiating new investments.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/15Jun2007_biz34.php

How interesting that Pramon Sutivong says this, whilst The deputy prime minister said "that none of the American companies planned to reduce or postpone their investment here." See http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...=125465&hl=

So who is right? Maybe they should meet!

Edited June 15, 2007 by bkkandrew

[bingobongo]

so much more reality and so few rainbows..........

Bangkok office market subdued

Due to limited leasing activity, the Bangkok office market in the first quarter of 2007 experienced a slowdown.

All these issues have discouraged both local and multinational companies to expand this year, resulting in a slower of growth of demand for office space,” Suphin added.

http://www.property-report.com/aprarchives...amp;date=150607

[highdiver]

Actually Palm, the Dollar is actually rising against the Euro and pound of late, measuring it against the Baht is meaningless as the local currency is being manipulated. By the way you don't have to be either a pauper or a whore monger on a Tourist visa to see which way the wind is blowing and as for low unemployment and booming construction, well it was the same in the U.S during the so called roaring twenties, I suggest you consult a history book to see what happened next.

Measuring the Thai baht against the Dollar is meaningless? Oh please please please tell me you are joking. So it's being manipulated by who exactly? The Easter Bunny? Or the super-secret Carlton Zionist Hedge Fund Cookie Monster?

Comparing the US Great Depression economic circumstances to today's modern economic system beggars belief. Reminds me of an entertaining book I read recently about the coming collapse of the US economy and the 'tips' it contained for surviving it were to buy gold and stock up on lots of flashlights.

This thread spans over 41 pages now and everything from consumer confidence figures to government tax receipts to falling gem sales screams as loudly as it can that rocky times lie directly ahead. I could give you ample evidence of the growth and scope of hedge fund activity but I guess you'll not be shaken from sucking lollipops. Frankly it beggars belief that someone with supposed business interests here can be so complacent. Not long to wait now..

Wait for WHAT exactly?

A fall in the value of the baht? GREAT. When though exactly?

More quality staff becoming available to hire? GREAT. When though exactly?

Riots in the streets? When exactly?

A global meltdown? When exactly?

You guys bitch and whine constantly, yet others continue making money and vast profits by actually doing things.

The Thai export market is booming and growing. Our profits are huge from investing in Thailand (way way way way way beyond the 10% returns of the I-invest-in-bonds brigade).

Please give me some EVIDENCE of the growth and scope of hedge fund activity regarding Thai speculation. Real evidence, not something you heard in a beer bar. I've been in finance for 15 years and I've never read so much b******s buy a bunch of losers for a long time.

Meanwhile, I'll continue to make a fortune from Thai investments here, and continue to keep my assets in a mix of countries, including Thailand.

Do you whiners actually make anything here? Or own anything here? Or employ anyone here? Or have any international businesses to speak of?

You really do sound like a bunch of bitter dropouts on maybe $1000 a month income made from investing in Bonds? I'd get better economic advice on how to make money and run an export business talking to the local tuktuk drivers.

It must be so depressing for you having your Thai spending power squeezed to a pulp with the strong baht/weak dollar, and seeing the roads clogged with Thais driving Mercedes everywhere.

The Thai economy is no better or worse shape than the vast majority of similar countries, especially considering the current lousy political situation. Just because you'd like to see the country go down in flames, doesn't mean it is or will.

So keep squealing like little girls that life isn't being fair to you and your personal economic situation is so dire you have to try and pin in on the troubles of a country, but grown-ups meanwhile can and will continue to manage hugely profitable businesses here.

Hey palm, would you like a little cheese with that whine, bitch (sorry I couldn't resist). On a more serious note I think that you and highdiver should get together, when it comes to economics and investments I have always found it entertaining watching the blind leading the blind. While we are on the subject of the blind, would someone out there tutor miss Robint in the fine art of simple division and while you are at it explain the the $ sign with a big B next to it means baht and not U.S. Dollars. Now back to our regularly scheduled program, "Defenders of the relm and masters of the Universe" staring Palm, highdiver and the rest of the rose colored glasses brigade, you can start passing out the lollipops and roses now Palm!

Why is it so easy to make sarcastic comments and jokes about people who have a weaker social status, yet most attempts to joke about people who are socially better off than oneself are mostly in vain?

we love thailand and belive its doing great. from your reply I can only feel sorry fopr you that you are not dong so well. if you feel that thailand is doing so bad and that the country is on its way down,please dont forget that no one is holding a gun to your head ..... oh and please dont let the door hit you on your way out.

[wolfmanjack]

Reminds me of an entertaining book I read recently about the coming collapse of the US economy and the 'tips' it contained for surviving it were to buy gold and stock up on lots of flashlights.

I did a paper on some of these groups when I was at school. I have never figured out why these people advocate buying gold to safeguard against a world gov collapse. Who is going to want it ?? My advice would be guns, ammo, and canned food. Good bartering stuff.

I seriously doubt that it will get to that point.

[VikBkk]

There is a Chinese saying...when there is a crisis...there is an opportunity.

I like the current crisis, why....because it causes a shake-up.....In my particular industry...Marketing and PR consultancy....there are many brand managers, marketing managers and also strategic planners who have been getting promoted and getting annual rises each year just because the economy was doing well(and nothing to do with their own contributions!)....when there is a crisis...they have no clue how to react. Many companies are cutting down their Advertsing and marketing budgets and but they still need to do something to stimulate sales and revenue....this is where new creative boutiques like mine comes in....we provide new alternative and innovative ideas and at the same time charge our clients economically. And business have never been better!

My advice to all....this is a time to carefully analyse your businesses and adopt new creative ideas.

[PRGUY]

I couldn't agree more with you Vitbkk.....in fact I am hoping that the crisis worsens as business has never been so so good, Having more and more troubled companies coming to me for new and innovative marketing solutions. I too just started a small PR and Marketing company at ekamai and things are booming like hel_l. People are beginning to realise that the big agencies with fanciful offices in big buildings and stupid account servicing staff are not helping them at all.

Thanks to current political situation that the economy is getting worst and there is more clients for me.

[soundman]

I did a paper on some of these groups when I was at school. I have never figured out why these people advocate buying gold to safeguard against a world gov collapse. Who is going to want it ?? My advice would be guns, ammo, and canned food. Good bartering stuff.

You forgot toilet paper, compass & matches...

Soundman.

PS. Sorry - couldn't resist...

[highdiver]

so much more reality and so few rainbows..........

Bangkok office market subdued

Due to limited leasing activity, the Bangkok office market in the first quarter of 2007 experienced a slowdown.

All these issues have discouraged both local and multinational companies to expand this year, resulting in a slower of growth of demand for office space,” Suphin added.

http://www.property-report.com/aprarchives...amp;date=150607

Thanks for your on-topic and concise feedbacks. It really helped me turn the corner on this "crisis".

I’m in such awe of your gargantuan intellect.

Thank you for spending so much time collecting this "valuble" information.

I am so impressed with your presentation of reality. only now I have noticed that every where in thailand people are not smiling and barely have anything to eat and mad gunman from the army are roaming the streets. we are truely in a crisis.

Oh yeah,in those realy dark glases you’re the coolest.

I totally get off on your posts.

[ray23]

Well take out all the insulting remarks, and this really is an interesting thread, it unfortunately would probably reduce the thread by 50%.

It would seem to me that if you knew what yuo are doing and how to time things there is money to made in all this mess. The turmoil is far from over judgement or no judgement.

How do you go about finding the solid companies, for purchases while the numbers are down. Things get settled I see a lot of room for increase in your investment, if you find the right companies.

How do you do that?

How do research companies?

From what I can see both groups are actually correct, some areas are down others are up. So it would seem the profits a or non profits are true depending on what business your talking about. It would also seem that some export compnaies are making additonal income by selling thier dollars.

Thailand will still be here when the silliness is over, so will I. No I don't own a company, I only employ one Thai, a housekeeper. I own my home and all the trimming. I don't live on a thousand dollars a month and hang out in bars. Would I like to see that baht back at 44 you bet, I doubt that I will but it would it be OK with me.

But I still feel that a lot of people are going to get hurt if this continues and I also think it will continue. The guys who know what they are doing will make money through this. The guys like me who don't know anyhting about this would probably be pretty wise to sit this out.

There are companies making huge amounts of money in Iraq today. There are always opportunities under any set of circumstances. There are also lots of way to lose money as well.

[VegasVic]

Actually Palm, the Dollar is actually rising against the Euro and pound of late, measuring it against the Baht is meaningless as the local currency is being manipulated. By the way you don't have to be either a pauper or a whore monger on a Tourist visa to see which way the wind is blowing and as for low unemployment and booming construction, well it was the same in the U.S during the so called roaring twenties, I suggest you consult a history book to see what happened next.

Measuring the Thai baht against the Dollar is meaningless? Oh please please please tell me you are joking. So it's being manipulated by who exactly? The Easter Bunny? Or the super-secret Carlton Zionist Hedge Fund Cookie Monster?

Comparing the US Great Depression economic circumstances to today's modern economic system beggars belief. Reminds me of an entertaining book I read recently about the coming collapse of the US economy and the 'tips' it contained for surviving it were to buy gold and stock up on lots of flashlights.

This thread spans over 41 pages now and everything from consumer confidence figures to government tax receipts to falling gem sales screams as loudly as it can that rocky times lie directly ahead. I could give you ample evidence of the growth and scope of hedge fund activity but I guess you'll not be shaken from sucking lollipops. Frankly it beggars belief that someone with supposed business interests here can be so complacent. Not long to wait now..

Wait for WHAT exactly?

A fall in the value of the baht? GREAT. When though exactly?

More quality staff becoming available to hire? GREAT. When though exactly?

Riots in the streets? When exactly?

A global meltdown? When exactly?

You guys bitch and whine constantly, yet others continue making money and vast profits by actually doing things.

The Thai export market is booming and growing. Our profits are huge from investing in Thailand (way way way way way beyond the 10% returns of the I-invest-in-bonds brigade).

Please give me some EVIDENCE of the growth and scope of hedge fund activity regarding Thai speculation. Real evidence, not something you heard in a beer bar. I've been in finance for 15 years and I've never read so much b******s buy a bunch of losers for a long time.

Meanwhile, I'll continue to make a fortune from Thai investments here, and continue to keep my assets in a mix of countries, including Thailand.

Do you whiners actually make anything here? Or own anything here? Or employ anyone here? Or have any international businesses to speak of?

You really do sound like a bunch of bitter dropouts on maybe $1000 a month income made from investing in Bonds? I'd get better economic advice on how to make money and run an export business talking to the local tuktuk drivers.

It must be so depressing for you having your Thai spending power squeezed to a pulp with the strong baht/weak dollar, and seeing the roads clogged with Thais driving Mercedes everywhere.

The Thai economy is no better or worse shape than the vast majority of similar countries, especially considering the current lousy political situation. Just because you'd like to see the country go down in flames, doesn't mean it is or will.

So keep squealing like little girls that life isn't being fair to you and your personal economic situation is so dire you have to try and pin in on the troubles of a country, but grown-ups meanwhile can and will continue to manage hugely profitable businesses here.

Hey palm, would you like a little cheese with that whine, bitch (sorry I couldn't resist). On a more serious note I think that you and highdiver should get together, when it comes to economics and investments I have always found it entertaining watching the blind leading the blind. While we are on the subject of the blind, would someone out there tutor miss Robint in the fine art of simple division and while you are at it explain the the $ sign with a big B next to it means baht and not U.S. Dollars. Now back to our regularly scheduled program, "Defenders of the relm and masters of the Universe" staring Palm, highdiver and the rest of the rose colored glasses brigade, you can start passing out the lollipops and roses now Palm!

Why is it so easy to make sarcastic comments and jokes about people who have a weaker social status, yet most attempts to joke about people who are socially better off than oneself are mostly in vain?

we love thailand and belive its doing great. from your reply I can only feel sorry fopr you that you are not dong so well. if you feel that thailand is doing so bad and that the country is on its way down,please dont forget that no one is holding a gun to your head ..... oh and please dont let the door hit you on your way out.

Highdiver, stop attacking your alter ego like that, Palm has every right to be sarcastic and ignorant! Personally I left Thailand back in March and am currently enjoying life in Sedona AZ. When I was over there I could see firsthand how the strong baht was killing the economy and how inneffectual this military regime was at trying to turn things around. Should Thailand weather the storm coming from the Chinese market meltdown and get a democratically elected government with a legitimate constitution then I might consider coming back, but for now I just see things worsening for an extended period of time. You, Palm and a few others are still in denial about what is happening in Thailand currently, if indeed you are in a weak social and economic status then I feel sorry for you as I feel sorry for the milions of Thai citzens who are currently suffering due to the downward spiraling economy over there, but sooner or later you will need to wake up and smell the coffee my friend.

[bingobongo]

here you go "defenders of the realm", more reality, debt is not being paid back......another rianbow or lollipop? i think not

BBL bad loans rise Bt200m

Bangkok Bank's bad loans have jumped by around Bt200 million this year amid the fading economy and falling confidence.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/16/bus...ss_30037003.php

[Mid]

BoT: Growth will be above 3.8 pct

The economy is expected to sustain growth of between 3.8 and 4.8 per cent in 2007 on condition that local political problems ease and a date for this year's general election is fixed, Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Tarisa Watanagase said.

well , lookie here ,

no hope of hiding the problem any longer ...........................

good news is that , that admission alone may signal the beginnings of a recovery .

[cclub75]

The economy is expected to sustain growth of between 3.8 and 4.8 per cent in 2007 on condition that local political problems ease and a date for this year's general election is fixed, Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Tarisa Watanagase said.

Tarisa should go to Chiang Mai to talk to the guru of Sonthi. He might tell her that in a previous life she was a good friend of the King Thaksin The Great.

Anyway, it's becoming totally pathetic : growth "if" a date for election is fixed...

[Old Man River]

BoT: Growth will be above 3.8 pct

The economy is expected to sustain growth of between 3.8 and 4.8 per cent in 2007 on condition that local political problems ease and a date for this year's general election is fixed, Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Tarisa Watanagase said.

well , lookie here ,

no hope of hiding the problem any longer ...........................

good news is that , that admission alone may signal the beginnings of a recovery .

Tarisa has always been open minded. The problem, of course, is that leaders of the junta are focused on entirely different matters than the economy.

[cclub75]

It's a shame that we missed that one...

The Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) prefers to wait until an elected government is in place before extending infrastructure loans to Thailand, a Transport Ministry source said yesterday.

The meeting was scheduled after the JBIC informed the government that it was unable to help finance the construction of the Bang Yai-Bang Sue section of the Purple Line in Bangkok, as requested by the Thai government.

The JBIC might harbour concerns that the loan could tarnish the image of Tokyo in the eyes of the international community because the interim government was installed by coup-makers, the source said.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/14...ss_30036794.php

Huge, huh ?

So of course, that could "delay bidding for the mass-transit project".

The government plans to borrow about Bt84 billion from JBIC to pay for the Purple, Blue and Red lines. That's not pocket money.

And, for a last laugh... Here is a headline... from august 2006. Last year.

Bidding to be delayed on 2 routes

JBIC has to scrutinise terms of reference

The Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) will indefinitely delay the bidding for two mass-transit routes under its supervision, to pave the way for the terms of reference to be scrutinised by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) - the potential project financier.

The terms of reference (ToR) for the two routes - the Blue and Purple lines - were originally scheduled to be available to interested bidders from August 13 to September 12.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/08/19...ss_30011434.php

Mega Projects ? Mega Buzz and Mega Problems.

Edited June 16, 2007 by cclub75

[pumpuiman]

My wife has just informed me that things are getting out of hand with the economy.

Her friend has had to reduce the amount of fish balls that can be purchased for 20 baht......from 10 balls to 8.

Those members hoarding fish balls....can make a killing.

[JR Texas]

BoT: Growth will be above 3.8 pct

The economy is expected to sustain growth of between 3.8 and 4.8 per cent in 2007 on condition that local political problems ease and a date for this year's general election is fixed, Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Tarisa Watanagase said.

well , lookie here ,

no hope of hiding the problem any longer ...........................

good news is that , that admission alone may signal the beginnings of a recovery .

JR Texas: You missed the conditional part about "monkeys start flying out of my ass."

[Mid]

My wife has just informed me that things are getting out of hand with the economy.

Her friend has had to reduce the amount of fish balls that can be purchased for 20 baht......from 10 balls to 8.

Those members hoarding fish balls....can make a killing.

and , thus no inflation in Thailand ................................

[bingobongo]

BANKING

Ratio of loans to deposits paints a gloomy picture

Scant change of late reflects slow economy, excess liquidity

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/18...ss_30037122.php

[solo siam]

BANKING

Ratio of loans to deposits paints a gloomy picture

Scant change of late reflects slow economy, excess liquidity

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/18...ss_30037122.php

I'm not sure that people NOT taking out loans or borrowing is a bad sign, after all aren't we forever hearing how Thai's like to spend credit that they can ill afford (and how this is the reason the economy is in crisis).

I take a look around me and I just can't see any crisis, the GROWTH rate is slower than some previous years. but its still growth - I think there's still plenty of room for the Asian economies to nearly catch up to for example Japan.

[quiksilva]

Five-month data point to recovery in Q3

Stimulus measures begin to bear fruit

CHATRUDEE THEPARAT

Economic data for the first five months have shown promising signs of a recovery in the third quarter, according to economic policymakers.

Kosit Panpiemras, the industry minister and deputy prime minister, said the government's stimulus measures had begun to show results.

Exports and public consumption were crucial for driving economic growth in the first quarter. The National Economic and Social Development Board reported that the public consumption was 98.16 billion baht, up 11.2% from the same period last year, due to increases in government expenditures.

April imports also showed an increase in capital goods, compared with steady contractions in the second half of last year.

New project approvals by the Board of Investment (BoI) had an investment value of 123 billion baht in the first five months of the year, up from 90 billion in the same period last year. Applications for BoI privileges in the first five months totalled 200 billion baht, up from 115 billion in the same period last year.

Mr Kosit, who chaired a committee on economic stimulus measures yesterday, said private consumption remained low due to weak confidence as a result of political uncertainties.

But he said this would ease over the next few months, as the country moved closer to new general elections.

Policymakers yesterday agreed to establish new working groups to discuss measures to support sales of durable goods and boost the banking and construction sectors.

Mr Kosit said the committee agreed that the production of some sectors could not meet the demands of consumers. The sub-committee would work with the private sector to help it better meet market demand.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont yesterday also authorised Mr Kosit to continue the programme to create confidence among consumers and foreign investors.

Mr Kosit said the government and related agencies such as the BoI would continue their efforts at building confidence.

A meeting among members of the Japan External Trade Organisation will also be organised soon.

Funny how quiet this thread has been today, when I posted this it had dropped to the second page...

[ThaiGoon]

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=30000

Thailand still favoured by Asian, American investors

BANGKOK, June 18 (TNA) – The Thai government's latest Board of Investment (BoI) survey shows that foreign investors -- especially from Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and the United States -- remain confident of Thailand's potential.

BoI Secretary General Satit Charnjavanakul said that his office had assigned Chulalongkorn University's Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration to conduct the survey in February-March 2007.

Mr. Satit said 2,500 questionnaires were distributed, but only 514 organisations responded.

Of those who did respondend, almost half – 43 per cent – showed confidence in Thailand's potential and indicated they would maintain their investment at the same level.

Meanwhile, 35 per cent of the responding investors planned to expand their current investment in Thailand. The responding investors, mainly from Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and the United States, cited their confidence regarding improved exports and growing sales volumes in the second half of the year.

Still, 4 per cent of the respondents stated they were considering downsizing their businesses in Thailand or moving their ventures to any other countries.

Referring to a comparison of Thailand's potential with that of other four key competitors -- China, India,

Vietnam and Malaysia, Mr. Satit stressed that Thailand still maintains high competitiveness in terms of investment infrastructure, logistics and intellectual property protection.

However, the BoI chief said, Thailand's investment privileges might be inferior to those of China, equal

to those of Vietnam, and superior to the incentives offered by India and Malaysia.

[ThaiGoon]

http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews...KK9807420070615

Dow Chemical eyes $2 bln Thailand investment -paper

Fri Jun 15, 2007 12:52AM EDT

BANGKOK, June 15 (Reuters) - Dow Chemical Co. (DOW.N: Quote, Profile, Research) plans to invest in five petrochemical projects worth up to $2 billion in Thailand, the Nation newspaper reported on Friday.

Dow Chemical would ask its board of directors in October for approval to invest in the five projects, the daily quoted Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras as saying.

"Dow Chemical is committed to turning Thailand into its largest production base in Southeast Asia," Kosit said, without giving further details.

Dow Chemical was among U.S. companies whose representatives met with Kosit on Tuesday to discuss the investment climate in post-coup Thailand, the paper said.

In 2006, Dow Chemical formed a $1.2 billion joint venture with Siam Cement Group (SCC.BK: Quote, Profile, Research), Thailand's largest industrial conglomerate, to build a new olefins plant, expected to start operations in 2010. ($1 = 34.62 Baht)

[ThaiGoon]

http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/showart...num=01OUT150607

Thai economy survives political uncertainty

by Mai K Khuyen

After a chaotic political year, Thailand’s economy seems to have survived and, while not thriving, appears to be doing well.

Despite predictions of doom by some foreign commentators, latest Thai Government reports reveal that Thailand, still Southeast Asia’s second biggest economy, grew 4.3 per cent in the first quarter of the year.

The positive economic outlook comes as the Government’s deals cautiously with the constant ups and downs of political protestors — mostly from Thaksin supporters in Bangkok and other big cities, and from restive Muslims seeking independence in the south.

The Thai economy expanded faster than many economists had forecast earlier this year. Rising exports of rubber, hard-disk drives and automobiles countered a slump in consumption and investment.

It is this writer’s belief that the current economic outlook should help restore Thailand’s reputation as a model economy and set a foundation for stable political development.

[Mid]

It is this writer’s belief that the current economic outlook should help restore Thailand’s reputation as a model economy and set a foundation for stable political development.

[ThaiGoon]

Did you go ape for two seconds when the SET briefly dropped for about three points earlier today?

[Mid]

SET index can reach 800 if political situation returns to normal

BANGKOK, June 19 (TNA) – The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index is likely to surge to 800 points if the government and the Council for National Security (CNS) are successful in overseeing the political situation until it returns to normal, according to a leading fund manager.

here's another bone ,

see if you can find the common theme ??

clue , look for the biggest word in the English language .

[ThaiGoon]

So you did go ape for two seconds earlier this morning.

What a sad clown.

[Mid]

see if you can find the common theme ??

no success ??

[ThaiGoon]

A clown living paycheck to paycheck is closely monitoring the SET!!